[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash Update] As of July 30, 2026, SMM social inventory of copper cathode in major regions across China increased by 2,700 mt WoW from last Thursday (July 23) to 111,900 mt, and total inventory decreased by 7,400 mt compared to the same period last year. By region, supply and demand both weakened in Shanghai and Jiangsu, leading to a slight destocking; in Guangdong, arrivals contracted but downstream consumption recovery was insufficient, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventories. Regional inventory trends diverged, with overall fluctuations being relatively small.

GO Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 grade: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,600-11,600 yuan/mt This week, China's domestic grain-oriented silicon steel market showed overall regional divergence. Shanghai spot prices remained stable, while Wuhan market quotes weakened and declined. Steel mills held a strong intention to hold prices firm, raising the base price for GO silicon steel by 50 yuan/mt in August, with no significant change in ex-works policies. The supply-demand situation stayed generally stable. Steel mill production pace was steady, resource supply was orderly, and market circulation inventory remained within a reasonable range, though regional inventory digestion speed varied. Downstream end-users such as transformer enterprises were mainly purchasing as needed and making just-in-time procurement. The overall transaction pace was moderate, and market trading sentiment was cautious and rational. Shanghai traders insisted on stabilizing prices for shipments and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, while Wuhan merchants faced increasing pressure to sell, leading to a rise in small price concessions. Looking at the overall market fundamentals, bullish and bearish factors currently check each other. The cost side provided bottom support, coupled with the underpinning effect of steel mill pricing policies, limiting room for a deep decline. However, the demand side showed no clear improvement. Overall, the GO silicon steel market is expected to consolidate on a subdued note next week, with a slight downward bias. Some room for price reduction exists locally. The market remains dominated by just-in-time procurement and a wait-and-see approach to maintaining stability, making a one-sided price trend unlikely in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content belonging to this official account. For reprint, whitelisting, cooperation, and other requests, please contact us. Without permission, reproduction, modification, use, sale, transfer, display, translation, compilation, and dissemination of the above content, or disclosing it to or permitting its use by any third party in any other form, is prohibited. Otherwise, once discovered, Shanghai Metals Market will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to claiming contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

Building Materials Social Inventory: According to the SMM survey, the pace of inventory buildup for total building materials social inventory continued to slow down this period. As of July 23, 2026, SMM building materials social inventory stood at 5.6155 million mt, with inventory buildup of 11,400 mt WoW, an increase of 0.20%.

[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash] As of July 20, 2026, SMM social inventory of copper cathode in major regions across China fell by 32,700 mt WoW from last Monday (July 13) to 107,300 mt. Total inventory was down 11,300 mt compared to the same period last year, hitting a new low for the year. By region, in Shanghai, as concentrated maintenance at domestic smelters has yet to fully conclude, arrivals of domestically produced copper declined, and coupled with fewer imported materials, inventory continued to draw down. In Guangdong, both supply and demand were weak, and some spot cargoes flowed to the east China market, driving a corresponding decline in regional inventory.

Social inventory of building materials: According to an SMM survey, the total social inventory buildup of building materials continued to slow down this period. As of July 16, 2026, SMM building materials social inventory stood at 5.6042 million mt, up by 44,700 mt WoW, an increase of 0.80%. The main reason was that during the survey period, affected by typhoon and rainy weather, arrivals of resources in some regions decreased, causing the pace of social inventory buildup to slow down. Social inventory by region: Currently, regional inventory performance diverged. In east China, overall inventory edged up slightly, mainly due to the impact of typhoon weather over the weekend, which led to temporary closures at riverside terminals and restricted construction at downstream sites, slightly slowing the pace of purchases. In some areas such as Nanjing and Fujian, reduced production at steel mills led to fewer arrivals of resources, causing social inventory to slightly destock. In the northeast, some places were hit by heavy rain and floods, triggering a Level I flood control and drainage response. All downstream construction sites were suspended, accelerating inventory buildup. In the northwest, the inflow of external resources from the north has recently decreased, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. Other regions basically experienced normal inventory buildup.

[Weak downstream procurement demand during the week, spot premiums declined] Guangdong spot premiums fell 20 yuan/mt WoW this week. As of Friday, mainstream #0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 100-80 yuan/mt against the market in Guangdong, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened...

SMM July 9: Data Brief: As of Thursday, July 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased by 34,900 mt WoW from last Thursday to 165,000 mt, with the total inventory up 21,300 mt YoY from 143,700 mt. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of both imported and domestic copper decreased; coupled with the approach of the 9th typhoon "Bavi" (super typhoon level) this year, which prompted concentrated cargo pick-up by downstream users, regional inventory destocked sharply. Similarly affected by the typhoon, Jiangsu saw a tightening in domestic copper arrivals, and inventory continued its downward trend; in Guangdong, transportation was hindered by floods affecting some road sections in Guangxi, leading to a decline in arrivals, and inventory also pulled back. Looking ahead, supply side, in the short term, imported copper arrivals are expected to be low and domestic arrivals to remain low; demand side, overall, it is still in the traditional consumption off-season, with enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Currently, the spot copper market is tight overall, dominated by just-in-time procurement, and it is expected that next week, the nationwide copper social inventory will continue its destocking trend.

[Vietnam] ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import offers ticked down to 535 USD/tonne CFR this week, with overall regional trading activity remaining deeply subdued in the thick of the seasonal doldrums. Facing an intersection of weak end-user demand and competitive import alternatives, local producers in Vietnam have been forced to lower their quotes to stimulate sales. However, as the substantial price reductions by the two major domestic mills last week were widely anticipated and import offers from international traders continue to hold a price advantage, local buyers showed little urgency to restock and largely maintain a strict wait-and-see stance. Notably, only isolated Indian HRC deals were reported closed at 525 USD/tonne CFR recently. Overall, given the reality of high regional inventory levels and sluggish downstream consumption, flat steel prices in Vietnam and neighboring nations will continue to face near-term headwinds.

[Vietnam] ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import offers ticked down to 535 USD/tonne CFR this week, with overall regional trading activity remaining deeply subdued in the thick of the seasonal doldrums. Facing an intersection of weak end-user demand and competitive import alternatives, local producers in Vietnam have been forced to lower their quotes to stimulate sales. However, as the substantial price reductions by the two major domestic mills last week were widely anticipated and import offers from international traders continue to hold a price advantage, local buyers showed little urgency to restock and largely maintain a strict wait-and-see stance. Notably, only isolated Indian HRC deals were reported closed at 525 USD/tonne CFR recently. Overall, given the reality of high regional inventory levels and sluggish downstream consumption, flat steel prices in Vietnam and neighboring nations will continue to face near-term headwinds.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.