Today, the most-traded HRC contract fluctuated downward, closing at 3,380, up 0.6% from the previous trading day. Spot sheets & plates rose by 10-20 yuan/mt from the previous session. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot-rolling maintenance was 74,100 mt, down 156,400 mt WoW. Next week’s impact from hot-rolling maintenance is estimated at 23,100 mt, down 51,000 mt WoW from this week, and supply pressure continued its uptrend this month. Demand side, futures rebounded in late trading, and market transactions improved somewhat from the prior session, mostly at low prices, with some buying based on spot-futures price spreads at lows. Cost side, late in the session today, market rumors said that China Mineral Resources had informally instructed to suspend the issuance of letters of credit for blended super special fines, causing iron ore futures to rise in response. However, subsequent new rumors refuted this, leading to volatile swings in the futures market. For coking coal and coke, the spot market was tight in supply and demand, and in the short term prices may be recovering from earlier declines. Overall, HRC regional inventory data released today showed that except for South China, other regions mostly maintained destocking, and the supply-demand imbalance remained not significant. The market is likely to continue fluctuating in the short term, with attention on disturbances from the raw material side.

SMM June 8: Data Summary: As of Monday, June 8, SMM copper inventory in major regions across China fell WoW to 233,000 mt, up 83,500 mt from 149,500 mt in the same period last year. Specifically, in Shanghai, warehouse withdrawals were steady, but arrivals of imported and domestic copper cathode stayed low, leading to steady destocking. In Jiangsu, insufficient arrivals pushed inventory down in tandem; in Guangdong, tight supply persisted, while weaker copper prices drove concentrated restocking by end-users, further reducing regional inventory. Market Outlook: In the short term, arrivals of imported and domestic copper are likely to stay low, keeping overall supply tight. On the demand side, the recent pullback in copper prices has spurred downstream purchasing sentiment, with demand recovering. A survey shows that the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to decline to 61.32% this week, down 4.41 percentage points WoW. Based on supply-demand dynamics, with tight supply and recovering demand in the short term, China's social copper inventory is expected to see slight destocking next week.

SMM June 1 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, June 1, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide were flat WoW, with total inventory at 245,200 mt, an increase of 92,200 mt compared to the same period last year (153,000 mt). Specifically, in Shanghai, both imported and domestic arrivals declined, and coupled with a phased pullback in copper prices, consumption improved slightly, jointly driving some destocking. In Jiangsu, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased due to falling copper prices, and regional inventory edged down. In Guangdong, end-use consumption remained persistently weak, while increased smelter arrivals entered warehouses, leading to a notable inventory buildup. Market Outlook: In the short term, imported and domestic copper arrivals remain low, and overall market supply is tight. Demand side, copper prices are currently at elevated levels, with downstream buyers mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, and overall demand remains weak. Survey data showed that copper cathode rod operating rates are expected to rise to 61.61% this week, up 4.68 percentage points WoW. Considering overall supply-demand performance, short-term market supply is tight and demand is sluggish, with social inventory showing a slight buildup trend.

SMM May 28 News: Data Brief: As of Thursday, May 28, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 1,000 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, up 106,500 mt compared to the same period last year (139,900 mt). Specifically, arrivals of both imported and domestic copper in Shanghai rebounded steadily, while rising copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to subdued market trading and increased regional inventory; in Jiangsu, domestic copper arrivals declined, and inventory pulled back slightly; in Guangdong, end-use consumption remained weak, but supply sources were even tighter, and inventory also decreased slightly. Looking ahead, imported copper arrivals are expected to remain tight overall in the short term, while domestic copper arrivals are expected to edge up. The phased pullback in copper prices is expected to boost downstream stocking willingness, with market demand gradually recovering. Currently, the market presents a pattern of slightly increasing supply and marginal demand improvement, and China's social copper inventories are expected to see a slight inventory buildup next week.

SMM May 25 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, May 25, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 2,300 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, up 105,500 mt compared to the same period last year (139,700 mt). Specifically, imported sources in Shanghai increased somewhat, though domestic arrivals contracted simultaneously. Combined with copper prices remaining at elevated levels, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened willingness to purchase. Warehouse inflows and outflows over the weekend maintained a steady pace, and regional inventory levels remained largely unchanged. In Jiangsu, influenced by the rising trend in copper prices, downstream procurement demand was generally weak, but local domestic copper arrivals pulled back somewhat, leading to slight destocking in the region. In Guangdong, the end-use consumer market performed sluggishly, becoming the core factor behind continuous inventory accumulation, with inventory levels continuing to climb. Market outlook: Supply side, short-term import arrivals decreased somewhat, while domestic source arrivals increased, gradually easing the overall tight supply situation. Demand side, downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude amid elevated prices, with market demand remaining soft. According to the survey, the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to decline to 61.61% this week, down 0.36 percentage points WoW. Considering overall supply-demand performance, supply is marginally loosening while demand remains weak, and social inventory is highly likely to continue its inventory buildup trend in the short term.

SMM, May 22: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated at highs within a narrow range around the daily moving average, touching a high of 16,770 yuan/mt in the later session, recording a three-day winning streak, up 90 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.54%. This week, regional inventory performance diverged. Smelters in east China delayed shipments and retained stock due to weakening lead prices, while finished product inventories in other regions edged down, and overall industry inventory increased slightly. After delivery completion, lead ingot social inventory pulled back slowly, with a weak degree of destocking. As multiple smelters resumed production, secondary lead output edged up, constraining price increases. On the capital front, bears reducing positions drove the market to recover, and lead prices were expected to move sideways in the short term with a fluctuating trend. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Analysis]: Copper-related Policy Shifts Across the Americas: Copper is no longer merely an industrial metal — it is rapidly emerging as a strategic resource. From mining policy reforms in Chile and Peru, to the U.S. Section 232 investigation and the strengthening of North American critical minerals strategies, copper policies across the Americas in 2025–2026 are set to exert profound influence over global copper supply-demand balances, smelting dynamics, and copper price volatility.

SMM May 11 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, May 11, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 10,300 mt WoW from the post-holiday level to 242,600 mt, up 119,500 mt compared to the same period last year (123,100 mt). Specifically, Shanghai saw a rebound in imported copper arrivals, but domestic supply remained tight. Combined with steady downstream rigid demand release, regional inventory continued destocking. Jiangsu maintained stable domestic arrivals with normal warehouse withdrawal pace, and inventory continued to pull back. Guangdong saw balanced warehouse inflows and withdrawals, with limited overall inventory fluctuations. Market outlook: Supply side, short-term imported copper arrivals are expected to see limited increase, domestic supply remains constrained, and the overall tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the near term. Demand side, copper price center is steadily shifting upward, downstream enterprises show weak stockpiling willingness, mostly restocking on an as-needed basis. Survey showed that copper cathode rod operating rate this week is expected to recover to 63.65%, up 3.07 percentage points WoW. Overall supply and demand performance suggests the current copper market features tight supply and demand recovering to normal levels, with social inventory expected to continue destocking in the near term.

SMM May 8 News: Data Brief: As of Friday, May 8, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 1,400 mt WoW from the post-holiday level to 251,500 mt, with total inventories up 131,400 mt compared to the same period last year (120,100 mt). Specifically, in Shanghai, imported and domestic copper continued to flow into warehouses, with inventory maintaining a buildup trend; in Jiangsu, overall arrivals were relatively low, and coupled with gradually recovering consumption after the holiday, inventory continued to decline; in Guangdong, although domestic copper arrivals saw steady recovery, they remained at relatively low levels overall, and with downstream processing enterprises resuming normal operations and consumption after the holiday, regional inventory saw some destocking. Looking ahead, supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to show incremental growth, and domestic copper arrivals are also expected to rebound overall; demand side, processing enterprises are gradually resuming production after the holiday, with marginal demand recovery, but under the suppression of elevated copper prices, downstream procurement and consumption remain mediocre. The current market presents a pattern of limited supply increases and slight consumption recovery, and China's copper cathode social inventory is expected to maintain a slight destocking trend next week.

SMM May 6 News: Data Brief: As of Wednesday, May 6, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 9,900 mt WoW from pre-holiday levels to 252,900 mt. Total inventory was up 124,400 mt compared to the same period last year (128,500 mt), ending seven consecutive weeks of destocking. Specifically, Shanghai saw simultaneous increases in both imported and domestic copper arrivals, while elevated copper prices suppressed downstream rigid demand, pushing regional inventory into a buildup phase. Jiangsu continued its destocking trend, with reduced domestic supply arrivals and steady warehouse withdrawal pace, resulting in continued inventory pullback. Guangdong ended its prior destocking trend, as smelting maintenance dragged on domestic arrivals, but concentrated downstream stockpiling before the Labour Day holiday and marginal recovery in consumption supported steady regional inventory decline. Market outlook: Supply side, imported arrivals are expected to converge MoM while domestic supply increments are released, keeping overall supply relatively loose. Demand side, post-holiday downstream purchasing sentiment was mediocre, mostly limited to rigid-demand restocking, with overall consumption pace slightly weakening. Surveys indicated that copper cathode rod operating rates this week are expected to pull back to 58.89%, down 7.46 percentage points WoW. Overall supply-demand pattern suggests the current copper market features marginally loose supply with only rigid demand from downstream, and social inventory is expected to continue a modest inventory buildup trend in the short term.