The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) has released a draft rule to modernize distribution network planning. The proposal replaces existing annual reports with five-year 'distribution network plans' covering a 20-year horizon, aimed at improving data accessibility for distributed energy resources like rooftop solar, batteries, and EVs. The reform seeks to lower curtailment by enabling targeted network upgrades. Data from the Clean Energy Council confirms Australia's rooftop solar capacity reached 28.3 GW by the end of 2025, with 4.3 million installations contributing 14.2% of total electricity generation in the second half of 2025. Stakeholder submissions for the proposal are due by June 4.

SMM April 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging down slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.42%. SHFE lead dropped 0.84%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.12%. SHFE tin fell 1.26%, and SHFE nickel declined 0.5%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.49%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.04%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.76%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.38%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both gaining less than 0.4%, and stainless steel down 0.54%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.32%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.82%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:51, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 1.7%. LME aluminum fell 1.12%, LME lead declined 0.84%, and LME zinc fell 0.81%. LME tin dropped 1.77%. LME nickel fell 1.38%. Precious metals, as of 11:51, COMEX gold fell 0.65%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 2.46%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 2.07%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.67%, closing at 2,221.7 points. As of 11:51 on April 23, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,210 yuan/mt, up 855 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Xi Jinping recently issued important instructions emphasizing the need to further summarize and apply the "Yiwu Development Experience" and explore paths of high-quality development suited to local conditions] Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently issued important instructions noting that Yiwu's small commodities had forged a large market and built a major industry, forming the "Yiwu Development Experience," which represented a successful practice of developing county-level economies based on local conditions. Xi Jinping emphasized that, in conjunction with the learning and education campaign on establishing and practicing the correct view of political achievements, the "Yiwu Development Experience" should be further summarized and applied to guide regions across the country to leverage their own resource endowments, respect the pioneering spirit of grassroots communities and the people, pursue reform and innovation, take concrete actions, and sustain long-term efforts to explore paths of high-quality development suited to their respective conditions, so as to better serve and integrate into the overall national development landscape. During his tenure in Zhejiang, Xi Jinping visited Yiwu for surveys on multiple occasions and summarized and promoted the "Yiwu Development Experience." Over the years, Yiwu has continued to write new chapters in the story of "small commodities, big market." Currently, the number of business entities in its small commodities market has exceeded 1.26 million, with trade links to more than 230 countries and regions. In 2025, its foreign trade export value ranked first among all counties (cities and districts) nationwide. (Xinhua News Agency) [ PBOC reverse repo operations achieved zero net injection and zero net withdrawal on the day ] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero net injection and zero net withdrawal were achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:51, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 98.7. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the US Fed would have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the war-triggered energy shock further intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17–21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in previous surveys. A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he seeks to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report also noted that Warsh opposed the use of forward guidance as a policy tool and opposed the publication of economic forecasts. (Jin10 Data) US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed support for Fed Chairman Powell's plan — that Powell would temporarily remain as Fed Chairman if his successor had not been confirmed by the Senate when his term expires in May. Hassett said on Wednesday: "I think that is the appropriate legal understanding." Trump has nominated Warsh to replace Powell, but Republicans currently do not have enough votes to advance the nomination from the Senate Banking Committee to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. Republican Senator Tom Tillis said he would hold off on voting until the Department of Justice stops the so-called "bogus" investigation into cost overruns in the renovation project of the US Fed building. Hassett said of Warsh: "We are very confident that he will become chairman at the appropriate time. I believe there will be discussions on how to move forward." (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today included US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US April S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, UK March public sector net borrowing, UK April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK April Services PMI preliminary reading, UK April CBI Industrial Orders balance, France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, and Germany April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, among others. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce held its 4th regular press conference in April. European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon took place at the US State Department. On crude oil: As of 11:51, oil prices in both markets extended the bullish candlesticks of the previous two trading days and continued to rise, with WTI up 1.85% and Brent up 1.48%. Recurring geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sparked market concerns over supply, supporting oil prices. Wall Street Insights noted that Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan as mediator, saying US-Iran negotiations could resume as early as Friday, but Iran subsequently denied the possibility of talks on Friday. Iran's president said he "welcomed dialogue and agreements" but also criticized Trump for "contradictions between words and actions"; Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a comprehensive ceasefire would be impossible without the lifting of blockades. (Wall Street Insights) In an interview with Fox News, Trump said reports about a 3-to-5-day window for extending the ceasefire were fake. Regarding Iran's seizure of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said they were not US ships and that he would continue to monitor developments. On when to end the war, Trump said there was no timetable and he was in no rush. "People say I want to get this done quickly because of the midterms, that's not true," Trump said, adding that the administration wanted to secure a good deal for Americans. Trump also said that blockades scared them more than bombing — they had been bombed for many years, but what they hated was the blockade. Once those oil wells shut down, sometimes they shut down permanently. Trump expected that when negotiations resumed, Iran's foreign minister would still be there. Earlier, Fox News and Axios both reported that Trump had extended the ceasefire deadline by 3 to 5 days rather than indefinitely. In response, White House Press Secretary Leavitt also issued a statement saying that Trump had not set a deadline for extending the ceasefire with Iran, and that reports of giving Iran 3 to 5 days to respond were not true. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 23 News: Metals market: As of the overnight close, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down 0.03%. LME tin closed flat at $50,595/mt. LME copper and LME aluminum rose over 2%, with LME copper up 2.4% and LME aluminum up 2.58%. LME nickel rose 1.74%, and SHFE copper rose 1.4%. Other metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract up 0.81% and the casting aluminum front-month contract up 0.64%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, down 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.62%. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal rose 0.67% and coke rose 1.01%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold rose 0.82% and COMEX silver rose 1.56%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.19% and SHFE silver rose 0.65%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on April 23: Macro Front China: [Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction: Major Policy Document Issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council] On April 22, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council released the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction." Energy conservation and carbon reduction serve as a key lever for advancing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the green transformation of development models, and as an important pillar for safeguarding national energy security and promoting industrial quality upgrading. The Opinions require consistently adhering to the principle of conservation priority, integrating energy conservation and carbon reduction throughout the entire process and all aspects of economic and social development, achieving higher-level and higher-quality energy conservation and carbon reduction, firmly curbing unreasonable growth in total energy consumption, continuously improving energy and resource output efficiency, and effectively reducing carbon emissions at the source, so as to provide strong support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The Opinions set out specific arrangements in areas including coordinating energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation; vigorously advancing energy conservation and carbon reduction in key sectors; further strengthening supervision and management of energy conservation and carbon reduction; and reinforcing support and safeguards for energy conservation and carbon reduction work. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.61. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the US Fed will have to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as the energy shock triggered by the conflict has once again intensified already elevated inflation. In the April 17-21 survey, 56 out of 103 economists forecast that the US Fed's benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range through the end of September, whereas in the late March survey, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one interest rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected an interest rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expected at least one interest rate cut this year, with the median estimate pointing to only one cut, in line with the dot plot projections released by the US Fed last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect rates to remain unchanged this year, nearly double the proportion in the previous survey. (Jin10 Data APP) Reuters poll: 56 out of 103 economists believed the US Fed would keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range through September (in the late March survey, 56 out of 82 economists forecast at least one interest rate cut by September). (Jin10 Data APP) A report from Oxford Economics noted that Kevin Warsh favors major reforms to the US Fed and its communication strategy — but any reforms he wishes to implement would be constrained by the need to build consensus among US Fed officials. The report stated: "The Fed Chairman cannot unilaterally make such reforms." The report also mentioned that potential changes to the US Fed's communication strategy could include reducing the number of annual FOMC meetings and not holding press conferences after every committee meeting. The report further noted that Warsh opposes the use of forward guidance as a policy tool and opposes the publication of economic projections. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US April S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading, UK March public sector net borrowing, UK April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, UK April Services PMI preliminary reading, UK April CBI Industrial Orders balance, France April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, and Germany April Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its 4th regular press conference in April. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech, and the second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held at the US State Department. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose together, with WTI up 3.57% and Brent up 3.12%. Crude oil futures rose for a third consecutive trading day, as expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were dashed once again. Ritterbusch & Associates stated in a report that Trump's extension of the ceasefire agreement removed the immediate possibility of escalation, but negotiations could be delayed, and the US blockade would likely remain in place indefinitely. Exports via alternative routes and the release of strategic petroleum reserves partially offset the impact of the strait closure on oil prices, while "price-related demand destruction is becoming a hotter topic." (Jin10 Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventory increased last week, while gasoline and refined product inventories declined, and total US exports reached record levels due to supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. The EIA said crude oil inventory increased by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels in the week ending April 17, compared with expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decrease. The EIA said crude oil inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub increased by 806,000 barrels. Despite the unexpected inventory build, oil prices still rose. (Jin10 Data APP) Sources: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) blend crude oil export plan for May was set at 1.8 million barrels per day, up from the April plan of 1.65 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan plans to reroute some crude oil originally scheduled for delivery to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in May to CPC exports. (Reuters) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

China Northern Rare Earth disclosed its 2025 annual report on April 18, which stated: 2025 was a pivotal year for the reshaping of the global rare earth industry landscape, a pivotal year for the strategic elevation of China's rare earth industry, and a pivotal year for the company to achieve historic breakthroughs in its business development. Over the past year, the company implemented national industrial policies and enhanced its capacity to serve national strategies. Production of major products hit record highs , with operating revenue reaching 42.563 billion yuan, up 29.11% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reaching 2.251 billion yuan, up 124.17% YoY. The company maintained its industry-leading position in revenue, profit, output value, and market capitalization, successfully concluding the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. It effectively safeguarded the security and stability of China's rare earth industry chain and supply chain, and elevated China's rare earth industry to a new level of high-quality development. The explanation of operating revenue changes disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's announcement stated: In 2025, amid an overall rise in rare earth market prices, the company seized market opportunities and coordinated the advancement of the "Five Unifications" scientific production model. Production and sales of major products, including smelting and separation products, rare earth metals, rare earth new materials, and rare earth permanent magnet motors, all achieved YoY growth. The main business disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's 2025 annual report stated: Adhering to the development philosophy of "optimizing and expanding rare earth raw materials, refining and strengthening rare earth new materials, and specializing and differentiating end-use application products," the company is capable of producing 11 major categories, over 100 varieties, and more than 1,000 specifications of rare earth products. The company's products are mainly divided into rare earth raw material products, rare earth new material products, and rare earth end-use application products. Among them, the company's rare earth raw material products include rare earth salts, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals, which serve as the primary raw materials for downstream rare earth new material and new material product processing enterprises. Rare earth new material products include rare earth magnetic materials, polishing materials, hydrogen storage materials, catalytic materials, and rare earth alloys. The company's rare earth end-use application products mainly include rare earth permanent magnet high-efficiency energy-saving motors, solid-state hydrogen storage cylinders, and hydrogen-powered two-wheelers. Regarding the business plan for 2026, China Northern Rare Earth stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and a critical year for the company to advance high-quality development and accelerate its transformation into a world-class leading rare earth enterprise. The company will adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, take forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation as the main theme, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its successive plenary sessions, implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions on Inner Mongolia and the rare earth industry, as well as the decisions and deployments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Baotou Municipality, and other higher-level authorities. The company will maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy, shoulder its responsibilities and mission, steadily improve operational quality and efficiency, build a comprehensive all-element and all-category industrial system, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, accelerate the pace of deepening reform, enhance the level of modern governance, continuously strengthen core functions and enhance core competitiveness, accelerate the building of a world-class leading rare earth enterprise, achieve a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, and make new and greater contributions to the construction of the "two rare earth bases." Key production and operating targets for 2026 (these targets are planning targets only; whether they can ultimately be achieved is subject to uncertainty and do not constitute substantive commitments by the Company to investors; investors and relevant parties should maintain sufficient risk awareness and understand the differences between plans, forecasts, and commitments): achieve operating revenue of over 44 billion yuan and total profit of over 3.5 billion yuan. On the premise of meeting operating targets, ensure that employee income moves in tandem with the enterprise's economic performance and labor productivity. Centering on the work targets, the following key initiatives will be carried out: 1. Stabilize production, promote sales, and improve quality and efficiency, demonstrating a new outlook of a strong start. Based on the national rare earth total volume control indicators, organize and arrange production schedules scientifically. Make every effort to ensure stable and high output from Phase I of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Enhance the capability of full-element rare earth extraction and separation. Optimize rare earth metal production processes to improve product quality and capacity scale. Release newly added magnetic material alloy capacity, with per-mt product costs reaching industry-leading levels. The polishing segment will leverage resource and capacity advantages, implement transformation toward high-end and precision products, and enhance product competitiveness. Rare earth additives will focus on high value-added product development to ensure stable product supply. Monitor mainstream product price trends and maintain market stability. Achieve production-sales balance for rare earth lanthanum-cerium products while actively digesting inventories. Strengthen procurement and sales channel development for rare earth Pr-Nd products to enhance market control. The functional materials segment will seize policy and market opportunities to secure orders. Rare earth permanent magnet motors will target frontier fields to achieve new breakthroughs in sales. Refine cost management and implement comprehensive measures to deepen cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement. Optimize financing methods to provide low-cost funding support for the Company's development. 2. Optimize layout and add momentum, shaping new advantages in industrial development. Efficiently advance the construction of key projects and accelerate the construction of Phase II of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Promote the Northern Jinlong separation production line to achieve trial production within the year. Promote stable and smooth production at the Jinmeng rare earth secondary resource project. Build a full-category industrial system and accelerate the implementation of joint venture and cooperation projects. Promote stable production and full production at the Northern Magnetic Material digital green technology empowerment project, and expand segmented application fields of rare earth permanent magnet materials. Strengthen the promotion and application of solid-state hydrogen storage materials and expand new applications in the rare earth catalysis field. Enhance the level of digital and intelligent management, deepen the construction of information management and control systems, continue to advance the in-depth application of business systems such as human resources, discipline inspection, and engineering projects, and further consolidate the digital form of business operations. Build a procurement-sales collaborative management platform to form a closed-loop business process covering "procurement, production, inventory, sales, and finance," achieving business-finance integration. Advance the construction of green smelting smart factories, progressively cultivate major production units to build smart factories, and continuously improve the CNC rate of key processes and the digitalization rate of production equipment. 3. Coordinating internal and external efforts to tackle key challenges, empowering innovation to seek new breakthroughs. Increase high-quality scientific and technological supply and strengthen R&D investment intensity. Focus on project deployment and research breakthroughs in areas such as cost reduction in smelting and separation, quality improvement in metal electrolysis, development of new rare earth materials, and expansion of new rare earth applications, developing new products, new processes, and new equipment. Conduct high-value patent cultivation and standards development and revision in key areas across the entire industry chain. Improve the "1+2+N+4" rare earth industry technology innovation platform system, launch high-level rare earth innovation platform projects, and comprehensively optimize and integrate technology innovation resources. Further leverage the role of the industrial transformation center, streamline the pathway for commercializing research outcomes, and enhance the quality and efficiency of technology transfer. Deepen the integration of industry, academia, and research, and promote the establishment of joint laboratories with renowned universities in China. Carry out "Three Firsts" application work in areas such as NdFeB alloy production equipment, rare earth permanent magnet motors, rare earth polishing fluids, and rare earth functional additives, and achieve substantive results. Further leverage the functions of the company's collaborative innovation centers across various industrial sectors, strengthen resource coordination and centralized management, and implement organized research. Focus on tackling key common technologies, promote close interaction and coordinated development among subsidiaries, and drive the output and transfer incubation of major scientific and technological achievements. Introduce the technology readiness level evaluation system into the entire R&D management process to establish quantitative assessment channels. Continue to strengthen the recruitment and cultivation of scientific and technological talent, providing full support in terms of compensation, research funding, and living benefits. 4. Deepening and substantiating reforms to stimulate new vitality in enterprise development. Enhance the company's management and control effectiveness, improve the board of directors' construction and authorization system, explore the formulation of management systems for the performance of duties by full-time and part-time chairpersons, and elevate the board's standardized performance and scientific decision-making capabilities. Optimize the company's management and control matters, processes, and authorities to improve decision-making efficiency. Promote the optimization and integration of subsidiaries. Implement the requirements of the "doubling" initiative for specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and cultivate additional such enterprises. Deepen the reform of the three systems, improve the cadre assessment and evaluation system, and strengthen the rigid implementation of assessment results. Optimize the selection and appointment mechanism, intensify competitive recruitment and market-oriented hiring, implement "3+6" contract-based management, and firmly establish a talent selection orientation that prioritizes actual performance and practical contributions. Closely align with the company's development and actual business needs, scientifically evaluate organizational structures, reasonably reduce management layers, and enhance management effectiveness. Leverage new projects and production lines to establish shared employment mechanisms, promoting dynamic position integration and workforce optimization. Deepen the reform of the compensation distribution system, build a "same-level, broad-grade" compensation system based on position value and performance contributions, strengthen the linkage between subsidiary performance and the company's overall profitability, and drive a close connection between employee income and enterprise profitability as well as individual contributions. 5. Striving for Excellence in Management to Elevate Modern Governance to New Heights. Strengthened strategic security management, enhanced information resource integration, and actively participated in the formulation of national industrial policies. Strengthened financial management by rigorously implementing comprehensive budget management, further reinforcing capital control, and establishing a capital risk prevention and control system. Enhanced financial informatization by building a standardized, efficient, and well-adapted financial shared services system. Strengthened risk and compliance management by improving the compliance management system to ensure that business development and compliance management advanced in tandem. Established a legal affairs shared system to reduce legal service costs for subsidiaries and strengthen the company's overall legal risk prevention and control capabilities. Improved the comprehensive risk management system and optimized risk management across the entire process of strategy, operations, and management. Strengthened safety and environmental protection management, guided by the "10000" safety vision, to enhance intrinsic safety levels. Effectively carried out safety management of relevant parties. Rigorously implemented environmental protection accountability, improved integrated traceability management of solid waste across production, sales, transportation, and utilization, and enhanced emergency response capabilities. Strengthened talent management by reinforcing training and empowerment, implementing targeted training by level and category, and improving the competency of key personnel. Deepened specialized cultivation of high-level talent and strengthened the deep integration of talent development with the company's strategic growth. Innovated the training model for industrial workers, built a platform for skills inheritance and innovation, simultaneously consolidated talent reserves, optimized talent structure, and enhanced talent effectiveness. Strengthened market capitalization management by establishing a scientific market capitalization management philosophy, improving the ESG management system, and comprehensively leveraging measures such as information disclosure, investor relations management, cash dividends, mergers and acquisitions, and ESG on the basis of enhancing the company's value creation capabilities, to improve market capitalization management performance and maintain the company's position as the largest by market capitalization in the rare earth industry. When discussing potential risks, China Northern Rare Earth mentioned product price risk: Affected by internal and external factors such as macro economic conditions, cyclical industry fluctuations, changes in rare earth market supply and demand, intensified market competition, and geopolitical disruptions, prices of major rare earth products may fluctuate and decline, posing product price risk. Countermeasures: The company will closely monitor market conditions, strengthen market forecasting and analysis, innovate marketing models, adjust marketing strategies, improve product quality, vigorously expand markets, and increase product market share. While maintaining and expanding the marketing base for Pr-Nd products, the company will intensify marketing efforts for La-Ce products, optimize service quality, and improve client satisfaction. Leveraging the role of a major rare earth group, the company will stabilize confidence, stabilize expectations, and stabilize market operations, adopting comprehensive measures to overcome unfavourable factors and striving to mitigate the impact of product price risk on the company's operating performance. Looking back at the SMM Pr-Nd oxide price trend in 2025: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on December 31, 2025 was 606,500 yuan/mt, compared with the average price of 398,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 52.39% in 2025. In comparison, the annual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in 2025 was 491,576.13 yuan/mt versus 391,871.9 yuan/mt in 2024, indicating a YoY increase of 25.45% in the daily average price in 2025. Driven by expectations of supply reduction due to partial shutdowns at separation plants, upstream suppliers raised their quotes rapidly, low-priced spot cargo in the market tightened quickly, pushing rare earth prices up for three consecutive days. According to SMM pricing, on April 20, the price of Pr-Nd oxide was 815,000-818,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 816,500 yuan/mt, up 1.74% from the previous trading day. As the price of Pr-Nd oxide rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, while downstream magnetic material enterprises had limited acceptance of high-priced metals, and purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the short term, supported by strong confidence among upstream suppliers to hold prices firm, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to hover at highs. For more information on rare earth fundamentals, technical aspects, and policy developments, please attend the ~ SMM Rare Earth Forum Contact: Wang Haiqiao Contact: 19818727891

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct and material external shock to Southeast Asia’s energy supply structure. Solar (PV) is emerging as the main alternative for reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. However, the structural tension between accelerating PV penetration and entrenched electricity market models will be the decisive factor governing the region’s energy transition pace.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

Venezuela's National Assembly on Thursday unanimously passed a new 131-article mining law aimed at securing U.S. support and foreign investment. The law includes provisions supporting foreign investment, such as an "economic balance" clause and international arbitration. The bill also establishes a streamlined tax system, centered on royalties of up to 13% of production and a new mining tax of up to 6% of total revenue, while exempting several existing taxes. Concessions can be valid for up to 30 years and can be extended twice for 10 years each. Officials stated that the reforms aim to attract investment to projects involving bauxite and other strategic minerals, but the government retains the power to designate national interests and impose special conditions.

Swissgrid, Switzerland’s national grid operator, has released a white paper outlining the systemic reforms needed to integrate 40 GW of solar capacity by 2050, up from the current 9.62 GW. The paper argues that achieving this goal is "hardly conceivable" under existing frameworks and calls for a total overhaul of the energy system. Key proposals include ending priority feed-in to reduce market distortion and cutting grid connection capacity to as low as 50% of installed PV power—utilizing storage or self-consumption for the excess—to minimize infrastructure costs. Experts emphasize the need for uniform technical standards, removing incentives during negative price periods, and deploying large-scale decentralized storage to stabilize the grid as solar’s share of the energy mix nears 50%.