[China's Zinc Concentrate Market] This week, China's zinc concentrate TCs extended their decline. In June, some domestic smelters conducted routine maintenance and cut production, but the overall refined zinc output did not drop significantly MoM. The domestic ore shortage has yet to ease, and close attention will be paid to the operating conditions of smelters going forward.

[Zinc concentrate TCs remain low, keep watching subsequent smelter operations]: From weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average fell by 150 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -200 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM import zinc concentrate index fell by $0.56/dmt WoW to -$71.76/dmt..

On May 29, Nexa Resources said its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru is gradually resuming production following the incident reported on May 13. the electrolysis lines are now fully operational, while one casting line has been back in operation and is currently producing zinc bars. Nexa plans to restart the second casting line within the next few days, followed by the final casting line by mid-June. As a result of the temporary disruption, Nexa estimates a refined zinc production impact of approximately 7,000 mt in Q2 2026, equivalent to around 2% of annual production. The company expects to recover the lost output during H2 2026 and has kept its 2026 sales guidance unchanged. No material financial impact's expected from the incident, with the cause remain under investigation.

[No Significant Production Cuts at Smelters in May; Zinc Concentrate TCs Continued to Decline]: Based on weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 150 yuan/mt Zn WoW to 700 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index dropped $6.5/dmt WoW to -$45.75/dmt.

During the May Day holiday in 2026, LME zinc traded in a general sideways range, finding solid support at the 40-day moving average. In terms of specific performance, LME zinc showed an N-shaped trend of rising first, then falling and rebounding again.

Hindustan Zinc Limited, the world’s largest integrated zinc producer, released its production figures for the fourth quarter and full year ending March 31, 2026. The company maintained consistent output across zinc, lead, and silver, sustaining operational momentum and reinforcing its standing as a top base metals producer. The data demonstrates continued efficiency and strong capacity utilization throughout the year. In Q4 FY 2025‑26, Hindustan Zinc achieved a record quarterly mined metal production of 315 kt, up 2 % year‑on‑year, while refined metal output also hit a new high of 282 kt. For the full year, mined metal production reached 1,114 kt, and refined zinc output totaled 851 kt, underscoring robust operational performance.

During the Chinese New Year break, LME zinc's price center first declined and then rose. The 40-day moving average consistently supported the daily candlestick of LME zinc. After opening, the price center of LME zinc pulled back, hitting a low of $3,253/mt before rebounding steadily. Overall, the price center recovered, and as of Friday's close, LME zinc settled at $3,378/mt, up $35.5/mt for the week, a gain of 1.06%.

SMM Analysis：As of January 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 25,835 yuan/mt, up 2,525 yuan/mt for the month, a gain of 10.83%. Zinc prices rose significantly in January, hitting a low of 23,410 yuan/mt early in the month and reaching a high of 26,985 yuan/mt by month-end, with the overall price center shifting notably higher. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, how will zinc prices perform in February......

Teck Resources released unaudited production and sales results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, and reaffirmed its previously disclosed production and unit cost guidance for 2026–2028. In 2025, zinc in concentrate production totaled 565 kt, coming in at the upper end of the guidance range of 525–575 kt. Fourth-quarter zinc concentrate sales reached 157.2 kt, with shipments from the Red Dog mine largely completed early in the quarter, consistent with normal seasonal sales patterns. Refined zinc production at the Trail Operations amounted to 229.9 kt in 2025, also at the top end of the guidance range of 190–230 kt. Teck noted that it continues to prioritize processing of residues to enhance profitability and cash generation, rather than maximizing refined zinc output. Looking ahead, Teck maintained its overall production guidance for 2026–2028, with refined zinc output expected at 190–230 kt in 2026, 260–300 kt in 2027, and 260–300 kt in 2028. However, following an updated mine plan finalized in the fourth quarter, 2026 zinc in concentrate production guidance for the Antamina mine was revised downward to 35–45 kt, from 55–65 kt previously.

On December 19, data from the Statistics Bureau of Kazakhstan showed that the country's refined zinc production in November was 23,615 mt, up 15.3% MoM. From January to November, refined zinc production totaled 237,950 mt, down 3% YoY. Zinc concentrate production in November was 54,200 mt, down 10% MoM, while cumulative production from January to November reached 603,500 mt, up 1.3% YoY.