[Copper] On Friday, SHFE copper closed lower amid sideways movement, with accelerated position reduction in the delivery month. Today, spot copper prices fell to 78,205 yuan. The premium for Shanghai copper rapidly pulled back to 80 yuan, while the premium in Guangdong dropped to 155 yuan. In April, the highlight of domestic and overseas trade exports remained in ASEAN, where production maintained strong momentum during the reciprocal tariff exemption period. In the first four months, domestic imports of unwrought copper reached 1.742 million mt, down 3.9% year-on-year. Despite extremely low processing fees, copper concentrate imports remained stable, with a cumulative increase of 7.8% in the first four months. Consider shorting the SHFE 2507 contract or participating in calendar spreads between near-month contracts amid the rebound. [Aluminum and Alumina] Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, with spot aluminum in east China trading on par with futures, while spot aluminum in south China traded at a discount of 45 yuan. Yesterday, social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets in east China fell by 16,000 mt and 9,000 mt, respectively, compared to Monday, with total inventory remaining at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. Amid the shadow of trade wars, demand faces seasonal weakness and pressure from trade frictions. SHFE aluminum faces strong resistance in the 20,000-20,300 yuan range, corresponding to the upside gap. However, since the beginning of the year, aluminum market demand has exceeded expectations. Monitor inventory and spot feedback after price pullbacks, and maintain a cautiously bearish stance without excessive pessimism. Recently, the capacity under maintenance and production cuts in the alumina sector has continued to rise, leading to a temporary reduction in production and a decline in industry inventory. However, once profits recover, capacity will resume on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The transaction price of Guinea bauxite at the cost side has fallen from $110 at the beginning of the year to $75, with the average cost of alumina dropping to around 2,900 yuan. This week, spot alumina transactions have slightly increased. In the short term, the rebound height of the futures market will be limited by the surplus outlook and cost collapse. Consider shorting on rallies when futures trade at a premium. [Zinc] The spot import window for zinc has opened, and with the gradual supplementation of overseas zinc elements, domestic zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations has been sluggish, keeping demand under pressure. The domestic peak season has ended, and the probability of simultaneous weakness in domestic and overseas demand is high. As consumption trickles down, maintain short positions in SHFE zinc from previous highs. [Lead] Profits at secondary smelters are poor, leading to reduced production. Primary smelters in north and south China have enterprises planning maintenance, supporting lead prices. The tight supply of raw materials remains unchanged, with secondary lead operating at a loss and insufficient enthusiasm for raising prices to purchase. Scrap battery suppliers are unwilling to sell at low prices, keeping scrap battery prices stable. Downstream purchase willingness is mediocre. SMM 1# lead is trading at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to near-month futures, with a price difference between primary metal and scrap of 25 yuan/mt. The import window remains closed, and the tug-of-war between costs and consumption continues. Temporarily, view SHFE lead as fluctuating rangebound in the 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt range. [Nickel and Stainless Steel] SHFE nickel fluctuated rangebound, with mediocre market trading activity.On the spot market, the premium for Jinchuan nickel fell to 2,250 yuan, the premium for imported nickel was 100 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel traded at a discount of 50 yuan. Supply side, the shipment volume of nickel ore from the Philippines increased significantly compared to earlier periods, replenishing smelters' nickel ore inventory. NPI prices continued to decline, with domestic acceptance of high-priced nickel ore decreasing. The impact of Indonesia's new policy on costs may gradually be absorbed by the market. The quoted price for high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 962 yuan per mtu, having fallen by nearly 7% over the past month. In terms of inventory, nickel pig iron inventory increased by 4,200 mt to 28,400 mt, refined nickel inventory decreased by 560 mt to 44,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 mt to 975,000 mt. SHFE nickel is at the tail end of another rebound, with bears gradually gaining strength. [Tin] The weighted average of SHFE tin continued to oscillate above 260,000 yuan and the 250-day moving average (MA250). Currently, there is a tight supply of tin concentrate raw materials. Domestic refined tin output fell MoM in April, with a particularly large YoY decline. However, both supply and demand in the tin market are weak, primarily supporting domestic spot prices. Today, SMM tin was quoted at 262,200 yuan, with a real-time premium of 770 yuan over the delivery month. It is expected that tin prices will mainly complete a right-shoulder oscillation pattern in May, with significant resistance above. Short positions can be held against 265,000 yuan. (Source: Guotou Junan Futures)

[SMM Analysis: The Volume of Tin Ore Imported from Myanmar Continues to Decline, Domestic Tin Ingot Production Fell Slightly in August]: According to SMM's in-depth research data, domestic refined tin production reached 15,468 tonnes in August 2023. Compared with the previous month, this figure showed a slight decrease of 2.87%, but compared with the same period last year, it increased significantly by 45.64%...

According to the SMM survey, China's refined tin production in June reached 16,285 mt, down 2.6% MoM but up 14.5% YoY.

According to the SMM survey, the comprehensive operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded slightly to 67.17% last week.

According to SMM, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi last week decreased to 63.77%.

After in-depth research, SMM has learned that a comprehensive environmental inspection will be carried out in Gejiu, Yunnan.

SMM data showed that China's copper cathode output in February was 950,300 mt, a month-on-month decrease of 19,500 mt or 2.01%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.68%.

SMM data showed that in January, China's copper cathode output was 969,800 mt, a month-on-month decrease of 29,600 mt or 2.96%, but a year-on-year increase of 13.65% or 116,500 mt; the output is 16,200 mt higher than the expected 953,600 mt.

SMM data showed that in December, China's copper cathode output was 999,400 mt, an increase of 38,600 mt or 3.86% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 14.87%;

SMM research shows December refined tin production was 15,685 mt, up 0.8% MoM and 4.29% from YoY.