[7.21 Morning Briefing] US media reports: US-Iran conflict intensifies, the Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the Middle East. Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader: If US forces continue operations, Iran may shift to a full-scale offensive. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged in early trading then pulled back slightly, and as of the morning close, it reported 130,720 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. As the US-Iran conflict escalates, shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have strengthened sulfur cost support. However, refined nickel inventories remain difficult to reduce. Both domestic and international inventories are still at high levels, and the destocking speed is slow. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within the range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

In June 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 25,691 mt, down 15% MoM and up 51% YoY; exports were 1,811 mt, down 82% MoM and down 82% YoY; net imports were 23,879 mt, bringing cumulative net imports for the year to 137,000 mt. On the import side, Russia and Indonesia were the dominant suppliers. Russian refined nickel imports amounted to 7,048.77 mt, accounting for 27.44% of total imports and ranking first; Indonesian refined nickel imports reached 6,734.48 mt, for a 26.21% share. Additional supply came from Norway (2,366.40 mt, 9.21%), South Africa (1,375.00 mt, 5.35%), Japan (969.71 mt), and Australia (900 mt), mostly consisting of long-term contract shipments fulfilling rigid demand from downstream specific alloy and precision manufacturing sectors. On the export side, the Netherlands was the largest destination, with exports of 705.29 mt accounting for 38.94% of total exports, primarily driven by delivery and European warehousing transit demand. Among neighboring Asian countries, India (501.20 mt, 27.67%) and Singapore (401.24 mt, 22.15%) ranked second and third, respectively. Together, the top three destinations accounted for close to 89% of total exports.

In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports reached 23,394 mt, up 85% MoM and up 24% YoY. Among them, other unwrought non-alloy nickel imports 16,177 mt, accounting for 69% of refined nickel imports.China's refined nickel exports 13,296 mt, up 22% MoM but down 25% YoY. Among them, other unwrought non-alloy nickel exports 11,928 mt, accounting for 90% of refined nickel exports.

In October 2025, China's refined nickel imports totaled 9,741 mt, down 66% MoM and 6% YoY. China's refined nickel exports reached 13,667 mt, down 3% MoM but up 55% YoY.

In August 2025, China's refined nickel imports totaled 24,186 mt, down 37% MoM and up 161% YoY.China's refined nickel exports totaled 15,048 mt, down 3% MoM and up 17% YoY. Among these, other unwrought non-alloy nickel exports amounted to 13,893 mt, accounting for 92% of total refined nickel exports.

In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports reached 38,164 mt, up 124% MoM and up 703% YoY. China's refined nickel exports amounted to 15,546 mt, up 53% MoM and up 2% YoY.