On April 20, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

SMM Nickel News, April 17: Macro and market news: (1) On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference in the "Getting Started on the 15th Five-Year Plan" series, introducing the promotion of high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The NDRC stated it would focus on expanding effective domestic demand and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy to expand domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. (2) Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire; the Israeli PM agreed to the ceasefire and said troops would remain stationed in southern Lebanon; the Lebanese PM welcomed Trump's ceasefire announcement. Spot market: On April 17, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,350 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -700-600 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session, touching 145,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 143,730 yuan/mt, up 1.54%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

On April 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rose significantly.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the HPM nickel ore formula in Quarter 2 of 2026, significantly raising the adjustment factor and including cobalt, iron, and chromium in pricing for the first time. This shift will increase base prices across all grades, particularly for low-grade ores used in hydrometallurgy, placing heavy cost pressure on the stainless steel and new energy industries. Supply remains tight due to delayed mining quota approvals and rising refining costs. Following the policy signal, international nickel futures have surged through key resistance levels. Analysts suggest that high raw material costs may become the new norm, with potential for further price hikes if refined nickel output drops or policy impacts exceed market expectations.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,754/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $50,795/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stood at 89-90, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 93. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,716/mt Ni.

On April 15, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price rose.

SMM Nickel News, April 15: Macro and Market News: (1) The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. The confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is scheduled for April 21. (2) Trump said talks with Iran would "possibly within the next two days" be held in Pakistan. Sources said Pakistan called for a 45-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, and the US and Iran agreed to continue negotiations, though the time and location remain undetermined. Spot Market: On April 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -500-600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued its sharp upward trend during the morning session, closing at 141,500 yuan/mt, up 2.58%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

On April 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500-600 yuan/mt.

Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.

On April 14, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -500–600 yuan/mt.