SMM Nickel News, May 13: Macro and market news: (1) The US overall CPI annual rate in April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting a new high since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. (2) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 12 that ending hostilities and lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz were preconditions for any negotiations with the US. Spot market: On May 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged at -700-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 146,830 yuan/mt, down 0.07%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching a framework agreement, the negotiations ultimately failed to produce formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, May 12: Macro and market news: (1) An Iranian official said on May 11 that serious disagreements existed between Iran and the US in negotiations over the disposal of enriched uranium, the duration of uranium enrichment suspension, and war reparations. (2) The PBOC released its Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The report proposed continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, flexibly utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions. The report also noted that as of month-end March, financial institutions had signed stock buyback and stake-increase loan contracts totaling approximately 370 billion yuan, with over 180 billion yuan already disbursed. Spot market: On May 12, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -700 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract surged in early trading before dropping sharply, closing the morning session at 145,980 yuan/mt, down 0.71%. Although Iran and the US had previously come close to reaching an agreement framework, the negotiations ultimately failed to sign formal terms. If the geopolitical stalemate continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis] Reassessing the Logic Behind Sulfur's "Surge" Driving Nickel Prices Higher

SMM Nickel News, May 11: Macro and market news: (1) Iran submitted its feedback on the US proposal to Pakistan. According to Iran's feedback, negotiations at this stage should focus on ending the war. The US called it "completely unacceptable." (2) NBS: In April, CPI rose 1.2% YoY and PPI rose 2.8% YoY; consumer prices rose 1.2% YoY. Spot market: On May 11, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from 800-300 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract rebounded during the morning session, closing at 148,320 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. Although Iran and the US were previously close to reaching a framework agreement, negotiations ultimately failed to sign formal terms. If the geopolitical deadlock continues to escalate and sulfur supply constraints remain unresolved, nickel prices still have upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

On May 11, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -800-300 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: NPI Prices Rose Sharply, Market Shifted to High-Level Standoff] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 30.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,150.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.58 $/nickel unit WoW to 146.78 $/nickel unit. This week, policies and futures drove prices steadily higher, with the NPI price center moving further up.

In the first week after the Labour Day holiday, nickel prices saw an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts, displaying an overall pattern of rising first then falling. At the start of the week, LME fluctuated at highs during the holiday period and tight supply sentiment continued. After the holiday ended, SHFE nickel opened higher with a gap. Mid-week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged over 3.5% in a single day, hitting an intraday high of 155,360 yuan/mt — a new yearly high — while LME nickel briefly approached $20,000/mt. However, in the latter part of the week, signals of resumed US-Iran negotiations emerged, marginally easing market concerns over tight sulfur supply. Combined with concentrated profit-taking at highs, nickel prices pulled back sharply, falling a cumulative 3.4%+ over two days. Spot market side, the weekly average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 149,383 yuan/mt, down 4,050 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums further declined to 1,100 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained at significant discounts. After the sharp decline in futures, spot trading activity improved compared to pre-holiday levels. On the macro front, the signal of resumed US-Iran negotiations — with both sides potentially negotiating on conflict resolution and opening the Strait of Hormuz — eased sulfur supply concerns accordingly, and nickel prices pulled back notably. The hawkish stance of Fed Chairman nominee Warsh at his confirmation hearing last week continued to weigh on market expectations this week. The US Fed's April meeting kept interest rates unchanged, with the current benchmark rate range maintained at 3.5%–3.75%. Persistently high oil prices continued to push the inflation center upward, with core PCE data still above the Fed's 2% target. Market-implied probability of a June interest rate cut has fallen to extremely low levels. Expectations for one rate cut for the full year remain the mainstream view but with significant uncertainty. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, a buildup of about 600 mt WoW. Looking ahead, geopolitical conflict dynamics persist. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, market expectations of sulfur supply disruptions will ease, and the nickel price center may shift lower. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000–150,000 yuan/mt, with key support below from the rigid cost floor established by Indonesia's new HPM policy.

SMM Nickel News, May 8: Macro and market news: (1) The US Central Command issued a statement saying that a US Navy guided-missile destroyer group intercepted an unprovoked attack launched by Iran while transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman, and immediately took self-defense countermeasures. Targeted strikes were also conducted against Iranian military facilities. (2) According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of April 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,410.5 billion, up $68.4 billion from the end of March, an increase of 2.05%. In April 2026, affected by macroeconomic data, monetary policies and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index declined, and global major financial asset prices showed divergence. Spot market: On May 8, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged at -800-200 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract opened lower and continued to decline, extending the downward trend, closing at 146,450 yuan/mt, down 1.94%. Trump explicitly stated on the evening of May 6 that a US-Iran deal was "very likely," with the negotiation framework largely finalised, passage through the Strait of Hormuz expected to resume, and the sulphur supply crisis likely to be resolved, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt, with the center likely shifting downward, and the key support below coming from the rigid cost support brought by Indonesia's new HPM policy.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $17,629/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $50,992/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 89.5-91, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 93. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $17,655/mt Ni.

On May 8, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average prices declined slightly.