[Ex-China Lead Market Dynamics] It was learned that lead smelters in Malaysia reported insufficient supply of used lead-acid batteries in the local market, which constrained lead smelting capacity utilization rates. Currently, the operating rate of factory production lines was only 50-60%, with monthly production of over 2,000 mt. Moreover, due to tight supply of high-grade lead ingots (lead content ≥99.99%) in the Southeast Asian market, refined lead output had been in a state of undersupply over the past two months.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A large secondary lead smelter in east China recently started furnace drying, and is expected to officially produce lead tomorrow or the day after. SMM estimates its contribution to secondary refined lead output in May will be approximately 2,500 mt.

SMM Analysis: Maintenance Recovery & Falling Zinc TC Shape May Refined Lead Output Outlook SMM May 1 News: In April 2026, China's refined lead production continued its modest upward trend, rising 1.22% month-on-month and 3.01% year-on-year.

SMM, February 28 news： In February 2026, China's secondary lead market was squeezed by three factors—the holiday effect, high costs, and weak demand—leading to a significant pullback in production as expected, with industry operations characterized by "weak supply and demand and profit margins under pressure." Data showed that secondary lead production in February 2026 fell as expected by 140,000 mt, plunging 40.38% MoM and dropping 2.19% YoY; secondary refined lead output decreased 45.18% MoM and declined 11.36% YoY. In terms of the causes of production cuts, the primary factors were fewer calendar days in the month combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to widespread shutdowns or production cuts at mainstream secondary lead smelters across the country. Worker departures for the holiday pushed operating rates to low levels, with particularly sharp declines in core production areas such as Jiangsu and Henan due to delayed worker returns and logistics constraints. Pressure on the cost side further exacerbated the scale of production cuts: before the holiday, scrap battery prices remained high due to recyclers' reluctance to sell, pushing up secondary lead smelting costs, while lead prices continued to trend weakly during the same period, causing widespread losses among secondary lead enterprises. Theoretical comprehensive profit/loss margins for large-scale producers were in negative territory, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing even more severe losses. Weakness on the demand side created a dual suppression: downstream battery producers entered the holiday early, causing lead ingot purchase willingness to hit rock bottom, while smelters' finished product inventories continued to accumulate, further dampening production enthusiasm among enterprises and ultimately leading to a sharp contraction in secondary lead output in February. Looking ahead to March, China's secondary lead market is expected to see a clear corrective rebound, with production forecast to increase by about 70,000 mt compared to February. The core driver of this trend is the comprehensive resumption of work and production across the industry chain after the holiday. With workers returning in concentration after the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters will enter a period of concentrated production resumptions, and some enterprises have indicated that they can resume operating at full capacity by mid-March. Gradual recovery in downstream demand will provide solid support for the production rebound: battery producers are resuming work successively, pre-holiday accumulated lead ingot inventories are entering a digestion cycle, and purchase willingness is expected to continue improving. Meanwhile, some secondary lead enterprises need to ramp up production to fulfill long-term contract delivery obligations, further driving up operating rates. On the raw material side, the scrap battery recycling market is gradually recovering after the holiday, and smelters' raw material inventories are expected to be replenished, easing supply constraints. Although enterprises still face certain profit pressures, with the combined effects of demand recovery, order support, and inventory digestion, production enthusiasm in the secondary lead industry is expected to improve significantly. Output in March is likely to achieve a substantive rebound, and industry operations will gradually return to normal.

SMM January 5: The most-traded SHFE lead 2602 contract opened at 17,365 yuan/mt during the day. After briefly touching a low of 17,300 yuan/mt in early trading, it fluctuated upward driven by bulls adding positions, reaching a high of 17,480 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it pulled back slightly, with the three KDJ lines gradually converging. It finally closed at 17,395 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.23%. The daily chart formed a small bullish candlestick. After the New Year's Day holiday, trading in the lead industry chain gradually resumed. Some primary lead smelters successively completed maintenance and resumed production, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. During the holiday, downstream battery enterprises were mostly on holiday, purchases stalled, resulting in a slight accumulation of social lead ingot inventory. On the secondary lead side, enterprises actively raised purchase offers to compete for raw materials. However, affected by tight raw material supply and environmental protection-related controls, some enterprises remained in a state of production cuts. Overall, the lead market showed a weak supply-demand pattern. Lead prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term, with subsequent attention needed on the interplay between increasing primary lead supply and decreasing secondary refined lead output. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM's monthly metal production data is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and help industry chain participants and investors gain a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

In October, multiple secondary lead smelters resumed production, leading to an increase in output, and this growth trend is expected to continue into November. However, the market is focused on whether raw material supply can support sustained production growth. SMM analysis indicates that raw material inventories at secondary lead smelters rose in October, driven by improved willingness to sell among recyclers and reduced digestion of previous smelter shutdowns. Overcapacity in secondary lead has resulted in an undersupply of waste lead-acid batteries, prompting smelters to gradually transition into multi-raw material producers and reduce their reliance on waste lead-acid batteries. Currently, arrivals of waste lead-acid batteries remain stable, which supports smelter production. However, secondary lead output is still influenced by smelters' production willingness (profitability). After the transition, smelters may increase primary lead production and reduce secondary refined lead output. The market needs to monitor smelter dynamics and changes in raw material supply and demand.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] A large secondary lead smelter in east China started furnace drying operations on Monday and is expected to begin formal production by the end of this week. According to SMM analysis, the smelter's production resumptions are projected to contribute over 10,000 mt to secondary refined lead output in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply.

[Secondary Lead Production Dynamics] It is reported that a large secondary lead smelter in North China recently suspended production of its large furnace for maintenance, with the resumption date pending, affecting refined lead output by 300-400 mt/day.

[Secondary Lead Production Information] A large secondary lead smelter in North China recently resumed production, with daily refined lead output exceeding 500 mt. The enterprise stated that raw material supply is currently somewhat tight.