[SMM Analysis] Copper prices have surged recently. On the surface, the current hot topics in the copper market are focused on the following areas: the widening LME-COMEX price spread, copper concentrate TCs hitting new lows again, the energy crisis in Peru, the repeated fluctuations in the pace of Grasberg's production resumptions, and the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap in China. However, from a deeper perspective, all these events can be understood under a single theme: the growing global emphasis on copper resource security, with the market repricing the entire industry chain.

In mid-May 2026, CAAM and the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance successively released data on the auto and power battery markets for April 2026. CAAM stated that in April, auto production and sales declined slightly compared to the same period last year, with the cumulative decline in production and sales narrowing further. Among them, domestic demand still needs improvement and stimulation; exports continued to grow rapidly, providing stable support for the overall market........SMM has compiled relevant data on the auto market and power battery market for April 2026 for readers' reference. Auto Sector CAAM: Auto Production and Sales Reached 2.575 Million and 2.526 Million Units Respectively in April In April, auto production and sales reached 2.575 million and 2.526 million units respectively, down 11.7% and 12.9% MoM, and down 1.7% and 2.5% YoY. From January to April, auto production and sales reached 9.614 million and 9.574 million units respectively, down 5.5% and 4.8% YoY. CAAM: NEV Production and Sales Both Grew in April, with NEV Sales Accounting for 53.2% of Total Auto Sales In April, NEV production and sales reached 1.32 million and 1.344 million units respectively, up 5.5% and 9.7% YoY . NEV sales accounted for 53.2% of total new auto sales. From January to April, NEV production and sales reached 4.285 million and 4.304 million units respectively, with production down 3.2% YoY and sales up 0.1% YoY . NEV sales accounted for 45% of total new auto sales. CAAM: NEV Exports More Than Doubled YoY In April, auto exports reached 901,000 units, up 3% MoM and up 74.4% YoY . From January to April, auto exports reached 3.127 million units, up 61.5% YoY . In April, NEV exports reached 430,000 units, up 16% MoM and up 1.1 times YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 472,000 units, down 6.5% MoM and up 49% YoY . From January to April, NEV exports reached 1.384 million units, up 1.2 times YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 1.743 million units, up 34.6% YoY. CAAM commented that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has started strongly, with major indicators exceeding expectations. China's automotive industry has maintained steady progress in transformation and upgrading, foreign trade has demonstrated strong resilience, and overall competitiveness has continued to improve. The recently concluded Beijing auto show showcased cutting-edge achievements in electrification, intelligence, and cross-industry integration, vividly demonstrating that China has become the core market and innovation hub of the global automotive industry. Regarding the April auto market, CAAM stated that in April, auto production and sales declined slightly compared to the same period last year, with cumulative production and sales declines narrowing further. Specifically, domestic demand still needs improvement and stimulation; exports continued to grow rapidly, providing stable support for the overall market. In detail, the passenger vehicle market declined, the commercial vehicle market maintained growth, and NEVs operated steadily. On April 28, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, and made a series of important arrangements. The meeting emphasized the need to fully utilize macro policies, deeply tap domestic demand potential, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and systematically respond to external shocks and challenges. This will help improve the domestic auto market, consolidate foreign trade advantages, and promote stable operation and high-quality development of the industry. CPCA also released data on the April passenger vehicle market. April national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.384 million units, down 21.5% YoY and down 16.0% MoM; cumulative retail sales from January to April reached 5.604 million units, down 18.5% YoY. The April national passenger vehicle market exhibited complex characteristics of "total volume under pressure with structural divergence." NEV side, April passenger NEV retail sales reached 849,000 units, down 6.8% YoY and down 0.3% MoM; January-April passenger NEV retail sales reached 2.758 million units, down 17.2% YoY. April conventional fuel passenger vehicle retail sales were 530,000 units, down 37% YoY and down 33% MoM. NEV export side, as the scale advantages of China's NEVs become apparent and market expansion demand grows, Chinese-manufactured new energy brand products are increasingly going global, with overseas recognition continuing to rise. April passenger NEV exports reached 406,000 units, up 111.8% YoY and up 18.3% MoM, accounting for 52.7% of passenger vehicle exports, up 8 percentage points YoY; among which, BEVs accounted for 57.2% of new energy exports (65.5% in the same period last year), and A00+A0 class BEVs as the core focus accounted for 51.2% of BEV exports (46% in the same period last year). CPCA stated that this year's passenger vehicle market, affected by multiple factors including NEV purchase tax policy adjustments, weak consumer confidence, and high oil prices, has exhibited an operating trend of "China slowing down, exports growing rapidly; fuel vehicles contracting, new energy dominating."High oil prices dealt a heavy blow to domestic retail of internal combustion engine vehicles, directly affecting the domestic retail recovery process. From January to February this year, internal combustion engine vehicle retail declined by 740,000 units YoY, accounting for 40% of the passenger vehicle retail decline; in March, internal combustion engine vehicle sales declined by 345,000 units YoY, accounting for 52% of the passenger vehicle retail decline; in April, internal combustion engine vehicle sales declined by 365,000 units YoY, with the decline share further expanding to 84%. Under the atmosphere of cost anxiety, consumer demand is accelerating its shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to new energy vehicles, and the market's "fuel-electric divergence" pattern is becoming increasingly prominent. However, on the export side, the opposite was true: from January to February, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 100,000 units YoY, accounting for 25% of the passenger vehicle export growth; in March, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 100,000 units, accounting for 32% of the passenger vehicle export growth; in April, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 130,000 units, climbing to 38%. Due to the notable effects of recent anti-involution measures in the auto market, the scale of price cuts was small, promotional levels remained stable, and many consumers' expectations of waiting for price reductions gradually faded, with some users in stalemate beginning to make car purchases. The Beijing Auto Show in April has become the world's largest auto show, with enormous industry chain scale and influence, providing a strong boost to auto sales recovery in late April. Characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in April 2026: First, overall volume was under pressure with significant structural divergence, with "cold fuel, hot new energy" becoming the biggest focal point. The core reason for the domestic retail decline was the "collapse of fuel vehicles," with new energy retail penetration rate reaching 61.4% (breaking through 60% for the first time in history), and the pace of electrification substitution exceeding expectations. Second, domestic brand share continued to strengthen, with traditional domestic brands successfully transforming, while joint venture brands lagged in electrification progress, solidifying the "domestic brand dominance" pattern. Third, exports showed explosive growth, with new energy accounting for 52.7% (breaking through 50% for the first time in history), driven by the "new energy + domestic brands" dual engine, making "going global" the core growth engine. Fourth, passive destocking characteristics were evident, with channel inventory declining rapidly, listed dealers suffering comprehensive losses, and dealer survival pressure continuing to intensify. Fifth, dramatic structural changes within new energy occurred, with B-class EVs surging and economy EVs under pressure, showing "high-end rising, low-end struggling." Sixth, new model contribution declined: April producer sales of new models launched in 2026 reached 108,400 units, accounting for 5.1% of total volume, while new models launched in 2025 sold 130,000 units in April 2025, with some classic car models maintaining stable leading sales positions. Power battery segment Power and ESS battery sales up 39.0% YoY in April, up 48.9% YoY cumulatively from January to April In April, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 164.2 Gwh, down 6.2% MoM, up 39.0% YoY . Among them, power battery sales were 108.9 GWh, accounting for 66.4% of total sales, down 5.0% MoM and up 25.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, accounting for 33.6% of total sales, down 8.5% MoM and up 75.5% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power and ESS battery sales reached 601.2 GWh, up 48.9% YoY cumulatively . Among them, cumulative power battery sales were 400.9 GWh, accounting for 66.7% of total sales, up 31.9% YoY cumulatively; cumulative ESS battery sales were 200.4 GWh, accounting for 33.3% of total sales, up 100.4% YoY cumulatively. China's Power Battery Installations Up 15.2% YoY in April, Cumulative Installations Up 1.6% YoY from January to April In April, China's power battery installations were 62.4 GWh, up 10.4% MoM and up 15.2% YoY . Among them, ternary battery installations were 11.5 GWh, accounting for 18.5% of total installations, up 7.6% MoM and up 24.2% YoY; LFP battery installations were 50.8 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, up 11.0% MoM and up 13.4% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power battery installations were 187.2 GWh, up 1.6% YoY cumulatively . Among them, cumulative ternary battery installations were 37.4 GWh, accounting for 20.0% of total installations, up 8.9% YoY cumulatively; cumulative LFP battery installations were 149.8 GWh, accounting for 80.0% of total installations, down 0.1% YoY cumulatively. Leap Motor Continued to "Lead" Among New Forces in April, BYD's Overseas Sales Hit a Record High April sales/delivery data for new automaking forces were released. Leap Motor continued to "lead," delivering 71,387 units in April, up 73.9% YoY. Delivery momentum continued to surge, with back-end production running at full capacity simultaneously. Currently, Leap Motor's A10 factory capacity has exceeded 1,000 units/day. Starting from April, Leap Motor's intelligent features also entered a phase of large-scale popularization. Currently, urban navigation-assisted driving has been made available for experience across multiple Leap Motor car models, and in the future, nationwide urban NAP and parking-space-to-parking-space navigation assistance will be rolled out in batches. Leveraging its full-domain self-developed capabilities, Leap Motor has achieved full coverage of assisted driving from the 100,000-yuan-level A10 to the flagship D19, making smarter and safer advanced intelligent assisted driving no longer a privilege of the few, but an accessible part of everyday travel. Li Auto delivered a total of 34,085 new vehicles in April. As of April 30, 2026, Li Auto's cumulative historical deliveries reached 1,669,442 units. As of April 30, 2026, Li Auto had 511 retail centers nationwide, covering 160 cities, and 550 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 223 cities. Li Auto had put into use 4,077 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, with 22,509 charging piles. XPeng Motors delivered 31,011 new vehicles in April. As of April, cumulative deliveries of the XPeng MONA M03 exceeded 250,000 units, ranking first among pure electric sedans in the 100,000-200,000 yuan segment for 19 consecutive months. As of April 30, XPeng's charging network covered over 430 cities, with over 3,550 cumulative self-operated charging stations, including over 3,000 self-operated ultra-fast charging stations. To ensure smooth travel during the Labour Day holiday, XPeng completed dedicated inspections and maintenance of charging stations along highways and at popular scenic areas. Xiaomi Auto delivered over 30,000 units in April. On May 6, Xiaomi Auto announced that the new-generation SU7 had received over 80,000 locked orders in just 48 days since its launch. The new-generation SU7 Standard Edition was priced at 219,900 yuan, the Pro Edition at 249,900 yuan, and the Max Edition at 303,900 yuan. NIO delivered 29,356 new vehicles in April, up 22.8% YoY. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 19,024 units; the ONVO brand delivered 5,352 units, up 21.6% YoY; and the firefly brand delivered 4,980 units. In the first four months of this year, NIO delivered a total of 112,821 vehicles, up 71.0% YoY. To date, NIO has cumulatively delivered 1,110,413 vehicles. In April 2026, the all-new NIO ES8 achieved 13,020 new vehicle deliveries. To date, the all-new ES8 has accumulated over 100,000 users and set the record for the fastest delivery of 100,000 units among high-end car models priced above 400,000 yuan in China. In addition, the all-new ES8 has been the sales champion among large SUVs and car models priced above 400,000 yuan for four consecutive months. BYD, China's leading EV maker, recorded auto sales of 321,123 units in April. Exports exceeded 130,000 units, hitting a new all-time high. Cumulative NEV sales surpassed 16.1 million units. On May 9, BYD and China Auto Rental (CAR Inc.) officially signed a Flash Charging China strategic cooperation agreement and a 100,000-unit vehicle procurement framework agreement in Shenzhen. Under the agreement, the two parties will conduct in-depth cooperation around the "Flash Charging China Strategy," deploying BYD flash charging pile facilities at eligible CAR Inc. stores nationwide to build a widely covered, efficient, and convenient charging service network, jointly enhancing user travel experiences. Meanwhile, the two parties signed a 100,000-unit vehicle procurement framework agreement, further consolidating BYD's core position in CAR Inc.'s NEV fleet and supporting its continued expansion of green transportation capacity. The CPCA stated that the current auto market is at a critical stage of smooth transition from "policy-driven" to "market-guided" and "product-driven." Although the market is under pressure in the short term, with multiple heavyweight new car models entering the market around the auto show period, supply-side efforts are expected to gradually drive demand-side recovery, and the overall auto market is expected to see a more robust rebound in Q2. In addition, CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu noted that the NEV penetration rate exceeded 60% in April, a "leapfrog" development compared to approximately 52% in March, with a key reason being the sharp decline in internal combustion engine vehicle demand, which in turn pushed up the NEV penetration rate. Recently, some automakers announced raises in optional intelligent driving features pricing, drawing market attention. In response, Cui Dongshu stated that China's auto market currently exhibits significant differentiation in automaker gross margins: high-end automakers maintain relatively high gross margin levels, with many models still sustaining gross margins above 20% supported by pricing, facing relatively small profitability pressure and having no substantive need to raise prices; low and mid-end automakers, however, face notable profitability pressure. Yet as industry competition continues to intensify and the overall market is in a state of volume contraction, broad-based price increases by automakers lack feasibility. Looking ahead to May, the CPCA stated that May this year has 19 working days, consistent with the 19 working days in May 2025. Auto market production and sales are expected to continue the prior gradual rebound trend. From the end-user pace and consumption perspective, the MoM recovery momentum of the May auto market is generally improving. The 2026 truck renewal subsidy standards remain unchanged, while passenger vehicle trade-in subsidies were reduced, and the impact of passenger vehicle sales losses is expected to diminish over time. Sales losses previously caused by the cooling of industry price wars and sales promotions falling short of expectations have been gradually absorbed. The Labour Day holiday combined with local auto shows activated car purchase demand, driving pre-holiday order locking and post-holiday concentrated deliveries, with monthly trends showing strength early and stability later. The surge in fuel prices is an exceptionally significant factor affecting consumption, bringing uncertainty to market sales. Currently, residents' income expectations remain cautious, wait-and-see sentiment toward car purchases persists, and coupled with tightening auto finance and higher credit thresholds, rigid demand is supported only by local subsidies and automaker concessions. China's consumption recovery is mild, with notable structural differentiation. Under the intertwined influence of multiple factors including international oil price fluctuations and intensive new product launches, these will dominate the May auto market performance. The Labour Day long holiday is a dividend driving MoM sales recovery, but consumption shortcomings are difficult to repair quickly, constraining YoY growth. High oil prices have reshaped car purchase preferences and accelerated the electrification transition, while the comprehensive new energy industry chain continues to empower export growth. The overall picture presents a weak recovery pattern of "MoM recovery, YoY pressure, domestic demand differentiation, exports leading, and continuously rising NEV penetration rate."

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, the third round of coke price increases has been implemented. Coke producers saw increased profitability and maintained high production enthusiasm, while their coke inventory remained at low levels, supporting an optimistic sentiment. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mills edged down recently, weakening rigid demand for coke. Steel mills' own coke inventory stayed at reasonable levels, and buyers mainly purchased as needed. In summary, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the tight supply-demand structure of coke is expected to improve. In the short term, the coke market is likely to hold up well with a generally stable with slight rise trend.

SMM News, May 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 2.51%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.18%. SHFE lead was down 0.99%. SHFE zinc was up 1.8%. SHFE tin was up 1.47%. SHFE nickel was down 0.71%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were up 0.19%, and the most-traded alumina futures were down 1.24%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures were up 1.63%. The most-traded silicon metal futures were down 2.84%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous two trading days, falling 4.37%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 820.5 yuan/mt. Rebar was down 0.18%. Hot-rolled coil edged up slightly. Stainless steel was down 0.13%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was down 2.54%, and the most-traded coke contract was down 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up slightly. LME aluminum was down 0.74%. LME zinc edged down slightly. LME lead was down 0.53%. LME tin was down 0.16%. LME nickel was down 1.22%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold was up 0.13%, and COMEX silver was up 1.06%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 6.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were up 2.9%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 1.23%, at 2,474.5 points. As of 11:43 on May 12, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 190 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,355 yuan/mt, up 1,385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 104,325 yuan/mt, up 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today, mainly due to increased arrivals and weak consumption... Macro Front China: The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. No reverse repos matured today. [CICC: China's PPI and CPI are expected to have further upside room on a YoY basis over the next two months] CICC commented on April 2026 price data, noting that PPI rose 1.7% MoM in April, with the YoY increase expanding from 0.5% in the previous month to 2.8%. The PPI increase exceeded expectations, mainly because price gains were highly concentrated in the energy and chemical industry chain. April CPI rose 0.3% MoM, stronger than seasonal patterns, with CPI YoY growth also rebounding from 1.0% in the previous month to 1.2%, primarily driven by energy prices and holiday travel demand. Looking ahead, CICC believes that against the backdrop of ongoing tug-of-war in US-Iran negotiations, international oil prices will most likely fluctuate at highs. Given the time lag in price transmission from oil price shocks, PPI and CPI YoY are expected to still have upside room in the next two months. However, this round of production-side price recovery shows clear structural divergence, with upstream price increases significantly stronger than downstream. In an environment of weak end-use consumption demand, imported cost-push inflation is likely to continue suppressing profitability in mid- to downstream industries. US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.14. On May 11 local time, the US Customs and Border Protection announced that the first batch of refunds for illegal tariffs will begin on May 12, with some US enterprises set to receive tax refund funds. The US government launched an online application platform last month, allowing enterprises to apply for refunds of tariffs previously paid but later ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. US Customs data shows that over 330,000 importers paid a total of approximately $166 billion in related tariffs. As of April 26, at least 75,000 enterprises had submitted refund applications. (CCTV News) The market is focused on copper data to be released tonight, which will help assess the US Fed's interest rate path. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June is 97.7%, with a 2.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July is 94.6%, with a 5.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. Other currencies: Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki stated that following her meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in Tokyo, her team is conducting smooth cooperation with the US side in the foreign exchange policy area. Katayama said she would not comment on Bessent's specific remarks. This is Bessent's third visit to Japan since assuming his cabinet position. Markets are closely watching this meeting, as it comes less than two weeks after Tokyo authorities' suspected large-scale yen intervention lasting several days to boost the yen exchange rate. Bessent has previously hinted that he is critical of direct market intervention, instead favoring support for the yen through the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy. The Japanese authorities likely first intervened in the market on April 30, when the Bank of Japan's decision to keep policy unchanged, combined with hawkish signals released by the US Fed, jointly pushed the yen-to-dollar exchange rate past the 160 level. Data analysis showed that the Japanese authorities may have deployed approximately $24.7 billion in this operation, followed by an additional approximately $30 billion in a subsequent round of intervention. Katayama said she also discussed topics such as artificial intelligence and critical minerals with Bessent. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Today saw the release of Germany's April CPI MoM final reading, Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, and US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY. In addition, attention should also be paid to: the Bank of Japan releasing the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12 to 13 for trade consultations with the US side. Crude oil: As of 11:43, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.95% and Brent up 0.87%. Uncertainty over the prospects of US-Iran negotiations kept market concerns about supply alive, supporting oil prices. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) allocated 53.5 million barrels of crude oil to companies including commodity trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon Petroleum, to help ease the oil price surge triggered by the Iran war. Ahead of the US summer driving peak, the US government is releasing near-record levels of crude oil to the market to push down oil prices. The crude oil will be released from June to August, when refineries will ramp up capacity to meet peak gasoline demand. This second-largest SPR sale in history is also part of a global effort led by the International Energy Agency to bring down oil prices. Last week, the US already released a daily average of 1.22 million barrels of crude oil under the aforementioned framework, setting a historical record. The Trump administration has pledged to release 172 million barrels of crude oil through a so-called "exchange program." Under this mechanism, crude oil is lent to enterprises and must later be returned in physical form. As of now, the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to the latest statistics from the GACC, total iron ore imports in April 2026 amounted to 103.854 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 889,000 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 0.8%. From January to April, cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 418.587 million tonnes, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year. In April, steel mills generally exhibited subdued purchasing activity due to the limited cost-effectiveness of imported iron ore. Concurrently, rising premiums and shipping costs further compressed import margins, diminishing the purchasing intentions of some importers. Nonetheless, strong downstream demand resulted in high utilisation rates of blast furnaces within steel mills, sustaining elevated levels of pig iron production and maintaining robust iron ore demand. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to adjustments in some iron ore shipping routes originally designated for export to that region, with China increasingly serving as a transit and receiving hub, which contributed to an overall increase in China's iron ore imports. Consequently, despite a slight decrease in April, import levels remained broadly stable under the influence of various factors. Looking ahead to May, the gradual recovery of port facilities in major importing countries from weather-related disruptions is expected to facilitate a significant increase in shipments from key iron ore-producing nations. Meanwhile, steel mills are anticipated to sustain high operating rates driven by profit margins, indicating that demand for iron ore imports is likely to remain strong. Furthermore, overseas mines that commenced production earlier are still in the ramp-up phase, which will support continued shipment growth. The Simandou iron ore mine is projected to reach its first shipping peak in May, with the majority of shipments destined for China. However, the Labour Day holiday in May, which reduces working days and could impact customs clearance efficiency and data collection, may result in a marginal increase in China's iron ore imports compared to April.

[JPMorgan: Overall Auto Market Recovery Remains Weak, BYD's Full-Year Sales Still Expected to Grow Against the Trend] JPMorgan stated that despite cooling demand in the overall EV market, BYD is expected to achieve positive sales growth for the full year, benefiting from improved expectations in the Chinese market and aggressive global expansion. In a research report released after post-holiday communication and survey with BYD's management, the investment bank's analysts noted that BYD expects domestic sales to reach 3.5 million to 4 million units this year. This performance guidance implies that its China domestic market growth could reach up to 13%, far exceeding market analysts' previous widespread expectations of flat sales or even a slight decline.

According to US Department of Commerce data, the United States imported 2.45 million net tons (nt) of steel in March 2026, a 5.3% increase from February. Finished steel imports surged by 15.4% month-on-month to 1.94 million nt, accounting for an estimated 22% of the domestic market share. Total imports for the first quarter of 2026 reached 7.07 million nt, up 2.7% compared to the same period in 2025. Significant increases were seen in imports of oil country tubular goods (+55%) and line pipe (+49%). The influx of finished products, particularly from South Korea and Brazil, increases competitive pressure on domestic US mills and may limit the upside for local spot prices despite seasonal demand recovery.

US steel exports totaled 611,043 net tons (nt) in March 2026, reflecting a 6% increase from February but a 2.1% decrease compared to March 2025. For the first quarter of 2026, total exports reached 1.76 million nt, down 3.8% year-on-year. Canada remained the largest destination with 294,625 nt (+5% from Feb), followed by Mexico with 222,086 nt (+1% from Feb). The monthly rebound suggests a modest recovery in cross-border manufacturing demand within North America, yet the overall quarterly decline highlights a softening in international appetite for US-produced steel amid high domestic price premiums compared to global benchmarks.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at and dipped below $13,693.5/mt, moved sideways at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center fluctuated upward and probed up to $13,969/mt near the end of the session, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,920/mt, up 2.84%, with trading volume at 26,800 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, an increase of 1,201 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 105,500 yuan/mt, dipped to 105,390 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center gradually shifted upward and touched a high of 107,350 yuan/mt near the end of the session, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 106,770 yuan/mt, up 2.35%, with trading volume at 75,900 lots and open interest at 209,000 lots, an increase of 4,829 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

Minsur, the world's second-largest refined tin producer, reported that its Pisco smelter in Peru produced 8,314 mt of refined tin in Q1 2026, down 2.9% YoY. The company attributed the slight decline in tin production to lower feed grades and reduced recovery rates at the smelter. Meanwhile, rising tin prices drove a 16.9% YoY increase in net revenue, effectively offsetting the impact of the production decline. Tin-in-concentrates production from the San Rafael underground mine fell 2.0% YoY to 6,096 mt due to lower recovery rates, but this was partially offset by a 3.3% increase in production from the B2 tailings dam. Total tin-in-concentrates production was basically flat YoY at 7,993 mt. The mill feed grade at the San Rafael mine remained stable at 2.40% Sn.