This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

Seaborne import and domestic billet trading in Turkey have both slowed down, weighed by expectations surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement and persistently weak local demand. The market broadly anticipates that if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, lower freight rates and an influx of Iranian material will reshape the regional supply landscape, prompting most buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach in hopes of securing lower procurement costs. On the import front, offers from two major Russian mills remain firm at 493-495 USD/tonne FOB, but Turkish buyers are only bidding at 500-505 USD/tonne CFR. The domestic market is equally under pressure; dragged down by falling scrap and rebar prices, the price for Turkish domestic billets has dropped by 10 USD/tonne to 530 USD/tonne EXW, reflecting a continuously sluggish trading sentiment.

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Rebar export FOB offers remained stable today. Market traders reported that inquiries were relatively mediocre and transactions remained weak, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market participants. [Steel Billet] Billet export offers were in the doldrums today, quoted at 473-476 USD/tonne. Market feedback indicated that current trader offers were on the high side, while overseas billet export offers declined, weakening China's competitiveness and resulting in mediocre inquiries and poor transaction performance. [HRC] Sheet & plate export prices dropped1-2 USD/tonne day on day today, with HRC transaction prices at 496-50 USD/tonne. Market feedback showed that inspection rates at North China ports had increased recently, causing some unofficial quoted sources to shift to relatively less stringent ports for port departures, and corresponding price spreads narrowed. Regarding the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, some export participants consulted today reported no notable increase in inquiries yet, and buyers may also be waiting to see subsequent risks.ently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] A 0.40 INR/kWh industrial power tariff increase in Chhattisgarh, effective 1 Jul 2026, will raise induction furnace billet costs by ~3.17–3.80 USD/tonne and re-rolling (rebar/wire rod) costs by ~0.51–0.63 USD/tonne. Weak monsoon-season demand limits cost pass-through, with billet margins at risk of erosion by 2.64–3.69 USD/tonne. [SEA] Currently, construction project operating rates in Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand are at a seasonal low, severely suppressing rigid demand for long steel products such as rebar and wire rod. End-user buying sentiment is weak, the pace of overall inventory destocking is slow, and local major mills' rebar EXW prices are at 520–535 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, with the release of information on US-Iran negotiations, news of the Strait of Hormuz unblocking has sparked expectations among Southeast Asian buyers of lower freight rates, creating a mindset of buying on dips and waiting on the sidelines. However, according to SMM's latest survey, even if the agreement can be signed smoothly on the 19th, the actual unblocking of the strait will still require a buffer period. Freight rates are expected to be difficult to lower in the short term and will mainly fluctuate at high levels. [Taiwan, China] This week, Feng Hsin, a leading long steel producer in Taiwan, kept its long steel prices stable, halting a three-week downward streak. Specifically, the rebar price stabilized at 583 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 18400 TWD/tonne), while the structural steel price held steady at 792 USD/tonne EXW (approximately 25000 TWD/tonne). This price stability indicates that mills are ready to accept new orders as the market gradually bottoms out.

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

On June 11, Shagang issued its EXW price for early June, with rebar and wire rod prices remaining stable. Current rebar price is 3400, coiled rebar price is 3530. All prices are tax-inclusive, effective from June 11, 2026. [SMM Steel]

[Turkey] Dragged down by market weakness, Turkish domestic rebar prices edged down by 1 USD/tonne to 591.5 USD/tonne EXW. As the depreciation of the lira continues to push up local currency costs, domestic traders have largely adopted promotional pricing strategies, offloading inventories at levels below mill dollar offers. Although mills attempted to hold prices firm last week, they were forced to compromise amid sluggish demand: some mills in the Marmara region lowered their offers by 5 USD/tonne to 605-610 USD/tonne EXW, while offers from Izmir mills also dropped to 585-590 USD/tonne EXW. On the macroeconomic front, rising costs stemming from geopolitical conflicts and a high-interest-rate environment continue to suppress downstream demand, with the market generally expecting limited room for a summer construction rebound. Export activity remains equally subdued, with EU buyers showing insufficient interest in purchasing Turkish material.

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

This week, ferrous metals mostly retreated after rapid rises, with only coking coal and coke standing out, briefly hitting the daily limit up at the open. Early in the week, the market was primarily characterized by coking coal and coke leading the gains across ferrous metals. A coal mine accident occurred in Shanxi over the previous weekend, strengthening market expectations of tighter supply driven by stricter subsequent regulatory oversight and increased production shutdowns at coal mines. Ferrous metals rebounded on cost support. However, some coal mines quickly resumed production afterward, and combined with the prospect of a US-Iran deal being reached, crude oil declines dragged iron ore prices lower, loosening cost support. Most products except coking coal and coke retreated from highs. In the latter half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing continued inventory destocking but marginally weakening apparent demand, with supply-demand pressure rising somewhat. Spot market side, spot prices remained relatively firm this week, with the spot-futures price spreads for both hot-rolled coil and rebar widening, providing shipment opportunities for basis traders, while end-users continued to restock on a need-based, low-price approach...

[Saudi Arabia] Saudi major mills' domestic rebar prices have risen to 780 USD/tonne, though trading activity has been light this week due to the Eid al-Adha holiday. On the cost side, recent increases in Saudi scrap prices are providing some support to the long steel market. On the import front, steel orders from China to the Middle East have gradually resumed recently, though volumes are still down about 80% compared to the same period in 2025. Destinations mainly include Saudi Arabia's Jeddah port and Oman's Sohar port, with freight rates at around 55 USD/tonne. After discharge, cargo is typically trucked overland to inland destinations.

This week, ferrous metals continued to pull back, with coking coal and coke seeing the most notable correction. In the first half of the week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, proposing that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking should be no less than 1.5:1. The further tightening of capacity replacement requirements had a longer-term impact. Meanwhile, macro markets outside China experienced significant fluctuations, and market expectations for ex-China "interest rate hikes" strengthened. In the second half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing production increased somewhat while inventory continued to decline. Spot market side, traders began to show some flexibility on prices, the spot-futures price spread for hot-rolled coil continued to narrow, some spot-futures arbitrage traders mainly cut losses with shipments, and end-users continued to restock on an as-needed basis...