[India] The Indian domestic steel market showed a mildly positive but cautious sentiment on Thursday. Prices edged higher in Mandi Gobindgarh, while Mumbai remained relatively stable, indicating limited improvement in market activity. Buying interest remains cautious with monsoon conditions continuing to weigh on construction demand. In northern Mandi Gobindgarh, HMS 1&2 (80:20) edged up by at 2.10USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (33,900 INR/tonne). Billet prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (42,400INR/tonne). Meanwhile, Mumbai HMS 1&2 (80:20) unchanged delivered Mumbai (31,000INR/tonne). Rebar prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mumbai to (47,200INR/tonne).

[Turkey] Following minor fluctuations last week, domestic rebar quotes continued to fall by 2 USD/tonne to 578 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT), as supply shortages of certain small-diameter rebars in the Marmara region eased and market trading remained sluggish. Specifically, some mills in the Marmara region lowered their offers to 595–596 USD/tonne, while mainstream ex-works prices in other regions fluctuated between 571–575 USD/tonne. Currently, the high prices are difficult for buyers to accept, and traders remain unwilling to replenish inventories, focusing mostly on clearing existing stocks. On the export front, market performance was sluggish due to a seasonal decline in demand, with mainstream rebar export quotes holding steady at 580–585 USD/tonne FOB.

[India] Affected by monsoon weather, sentiment in India's domestic steel and scrap market remained cautious, with buying activity largely dominated by need-based procurement. Demand from the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors continued to underpin the market, while steel mills and secondary steel producers remained watchful of finished steel demand and profit margins before initiating fresh purchases. In terms of prices, the ex-yard price of ship-breaking melting scrap in Alang fell by 3.15 USD/tonne from last Friday to 341.13 USD/tonne (32,500 INR/tonne). In northern Mandi Gobindgarh, the price of HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap edged down by 1.05 USD/tonne (100 INR/tonne). Meanwhile, Bellary sponge iron PDRI price dipped slightly by 2.10 USD/tonne to 274 USD/tonne (26,100 INR/tonne), while Mumbai rebar prices inched up by 1.05 USD/tonne to 492 USD/tonne (46,900 INR/tonne).

This week, multiple news items on the raw material front successively boosted market sentiment, with finished steel prices rebounding from lows in phases and generally showing a bottoming-out trend. At the start of the week, the weak fundamentals of finished steel were hard to change, and ferrous metals prices had overshot to the bottom. Subsequently, however, coal mines in Shanxi were affected by rainfall, and circuit failures led to production suspensions at some mines, sentimentally driving ferrous metals prices to bottom out. Mid-week, there were rumors of a 48-hour strike at BHP, with limited short-term tangible impact, but sentiment...

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......

Rebar prices drifted lower this week, with the nationwide average price at 3,052 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW from last Friday. Supply side, although raw material prices have recently eased, most steel mills are still loss-making and production enthusiasm has weakened. Moreover, mills in central and north China are under cash flow loss pressure and have short-term maintenance plans, which will further ease production pressure. In addition, electric furnace mills are facing deepening losses, coupled with difficulties in scrap collection during the summer. Some producers have further reduced operating hours, with a few planning to halt production next week. The electric furnace operating rate is expected to continue its downtrend. Demand side, the falling price trend combined with the off-season led to overall moderate trading. Additionally, some regions affected by rain saw limited project construction and a slowdown in downstream procurement pace. Inventory side, mill inventories fell while social inventories rose, keeping total inventories in an accumulation phase. Off-season inventory pressure is gradually emerging. It is understood that mill profitability diverged by region. East China mills maintained relatively good performance, with some still generating gross profits. However, mills in north and northwest China suffered heavier losses, and with higher inventory pressure, they are about to face cash flow losses. Looking ahead, the second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, pushing the cost side lower and weakening support for the price floor. Returning to rebar fundamentals, the supply-demand imbalance is accumulating, and weak demand offers little catalyst. Spot prices are expected to face downside risks next week. In the later period, attention should be paid to market capital flows and steel mill maintenance and production cuts.

[India] Ship-breaking HMS (80:20) prices in Alang, Gujarat, declined to 351 USD/tonne ex-yard. Persistent rainfall disrupted cutting operations and constrained processed scrap availability, while weaker billet and rebar prices reduced buying interest from secondary steelmakers. Procurement remained largely need-based, but tight supply limited the correction. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.

[SMM Operating Rate of Steel Mills Using Externally Purchased Billets] According to an SMM survey, as of July 30, the operating rate of steel mills that mainly produce construction steel and use externally purchased billets was 17.16%, down 0.31 percentage points MoM from June and up 0.3 percentage points YoY.

[Malaysia] The current-date market update reported that Malaysian domestic rebar prices had fallen from USD 590-600/tonne in early May to USD 520-530/tonne by late July. Seasonal weakness continued to weigh on market activity, while Malaysian exporters reduced offers to approximately USD 500/tonne CFR Singapore and Hong Kong, reflecting subdued regional buying interest and increased pressure on suppliers to secure orders.

Ferrous metals showed slight divergence this week, with coking coal outperforming while iron ore, coke, and coil and rebar were generally weaker, and iron ore led the decline. During the week, news of the U.S.-Iran conflict fluctuated, but the market...