[Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Enterprise Shutdowns Lower Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Operating Rates] The decline in operating rates this week was mainly due to some enterprises having a holiday for the Dragon Boat Festival, which caused a significant drop in operations. ......

US President Trump Donald posted on a social media platform that Iran has made clear to the US that vessels currently navigating through the Strait of Hormuz “need not pay tolls, insurance fees, nor will they face any other form of charges.” Meanwhile, Trump Donald threatened that if the information was false, the US would immediately terminate the relevant negotiations. In addition, regarding the temporary cancellation of the signing arrangement for the bill aimed at reducing housing costs and increasing housing supply, Trump Donald stated that he would not sign the bill, claiming that he knew real estate better than anyone and that an interest rate cut was the key.

This week, the operating rate at China's leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises came in at 63%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. Weighed down by the deepening seasonal off-season across the sector, downstream purchase willingness was broadly subdued, and operating rates across most segments remained under pressure. Primary aluminum alloy held steady at 59.4%, as enterprises mainly focused on executing existing long-term contracts, with no release of new spot orders.

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

HRC prices: Over the coming year, from 2026 to 2027, China has nearly 40 million mt of HRC capacity projects under planning and construction, with production expected to increase further in 2026. Demand side, China's macro policies are expected to remain accommodative, and the manufacturing sector is likely to continue introducing policies to stimulate consumption, with demand expectations staying resilient. However, affected by anti-dumping measures and export structure adjustments, the decline in HRC exports will weigh on the domestic high-supply pattern. Overall, HRC prices are expected to continue hovering at lows in 2026. But considering that overseas geopolitical conflicts are pushing up inflation expectations and transmitting to commodity prices, coupled with coal and coke prices hitting bottom in 2025 and entering a new recovery uptick cycle, against the backdrop of cost push, the average HRC price may rebound slightly compared to 2025. Looking ahead to the next five years, considering that the peak period of new production capacity has passed, with the accelerated promotion of industry mergers and reorganizations and the continuous optimization of the capacity structure, HRC supply growth is expected to gradually slow down and stabilize starting from 2027. SMM expects that around 2028, a policy package of supply-side production restrictions plus steel export scale tightening may re-emerge, and the improvement in the overcapacity contradiction may bring about a round of upside opportunities for HRC prices. However, unlike the intensity of the 2015 supply-side reforms that were coupled with real estate easing and shantytown renovation destocking policies, after the phased capacity removal ends, the overall downward trend in China's steel consumption will be hard to reverse, which will limit the upside room of this HRC price rally driven by supply-demand imbalance easing. Additionally, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore trending looser will also pull down costs, and HRC prices are expected to come under pressure again after a brief rise. Steel mill profits: Considering that China's surplus steel capacity is resolved through steel exports, this necessitates China's steel prices to stay relatively low to support price advantages and orders, which will also limit the upside room of China's steel prices, steel mill profits are expected to remain at low marginal levels in H2 2026. China Hot-Rolled Coil Annual Supply-Demand Balance （ The line chart represents China's HRC price, and the bar chart represents the HRC balance. ）

[SMM Brass Billet Flash] The core contradiction of "high costs, weak demand, and pessimistic expectations" in the brass billet market has not fundamentally reversed. On the one hand, international copper prices hover at highs, continuously raising production and import costs for brass billets, squeezing profits of domestic processing enterprises, and making import purchase willingness increasingly cautious. On the other hand, the recovery pace of traditional end-use consumption sectors such as real estate, home appliances, and hardware remains slow, downstream finished product orders are mediocre, overall spot trades are sluggish, and there is insufficient momentum for large-scale restocking.

According to the latest customs data, China's imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods in May 2026 reached 2,766.41 mt in physical content, up 8.19% YoY and surging 13.02% MoM. In January-May 2026, cumulative imports were 11,400 mt in physical content, a cumulative decline of 1.23% YoY (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190). From April to May, downstream users in China maintained a normal restocking pace, and with steady export order deliveries, monthly imports recovered on a MoM basis for consecutive months. However, overall end-use consumption showed no significant pickup, leaving cumulative imports still weak YoY. By source, South Korea remained China's largest supplier of brass billet, with imports from South Korea reaching 1,117.9 mt in May, up 13.85% MoM and 16.79% YoY, accounting for 40.41% of the total. Japan ranked second, with May imports at 439.88 mt, up 19.05% MoM but down 0.82% YoY, representing a 15.9% share. In May, imports from these two key source countries both rose MoM, as overseas producers' shipments and the domestic procurement pace picked up simultaneously. Japan and South Korea together supplied over 50% of the total, and the import source structure remained stable. On the import value side, growth remained divergent, and cost pressures continued to stand out. Import value in May was $26.7529 million, up 18.33% MoM and 38.04% YoY. In January-May 2026, cumulative import value reached $105.7079 million, a 23.42% YoY increase. A comparison shows that while imports in January-May fell 1.23% YoY in volume, import value surged 23.42% YoY, a sharp divergence. The key reason is that international copper raw material prices have been fluctuating at highs, pushing up the ex-factory cost of overseas brass billet, which then passed through to import prices and drove up unit transaction prices. Even though total import volumes were weak, overall import value maintained high growth. The core contradiction of "high costs, weak demand, and pessimistic expectations" in the brass billet market has not fundamentally reversed. On one hand, international copper prices have been fluctuating at highs, continuously raising production and import costs for brass billet, squeezing profits at domestic processing enterprises, and making import purchase willingness more cautious. On the other hand, end-use consumption in traditional sectors such as real estate, home appliances, and hardware has recovered slowly, downstream finished product orders have been mediocre, spot trades in the market have remained sluggish overall, and there has been insufficient drive for large-scale restocking. Based on import performance in May and downstream fundamentals, SMM expects that the brass billet import market will continue to operate at low levels for the rest of Q2 this year. Without a concentrated recovery in end-use demand, imports are unlikely to see a sustained significant rebound, and the game between high import prices and weak end-use demand will persist.

Today, the spot zinc ingot pricing in the Guangdong region has switched to the new front-month contract, with the benchmark contract shifting from the JH2607 contract to the JH2608 contract. Under the contango structure, today's quotes in the Guangdong region are at a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the JH2608 contract. How will the spot premium/discount perform in the coming period?

According to the SMM survey, as of June 16, the operating rate of the 50 EAF steel mills nationwide that mainly produce construction steel stood at 41.7%, up 0.86% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 43.07%, up 0.74% WoW; and daily average construction steel production was 95,900 mt, up 1,700 mt WoW.

The most-traded iron ore contract was in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 762 yuan/mt, down 0.85% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 5-10 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders sold as the market dictated; steel mills remained cautious and purchased as needed. The market atmosphere was subdued, and spot volumes have been low so far. According to SMM statistics, this week (June 13-19), the impact on hot metal production caused by blast furnace maintenance was 1.1092 million mt, up 3,400 mt WoW. Next week (June 20-26), this impact is expected to rise to 1.1718 million mt, up 62,600 mt WoW from this week. Hot metal production is expected to peak this week, and as losses at steel mills intensify, production may pull back next week. Additionally, the domestic macro and real estate data released today remained weak overall, putting market sentiment under pressure. Overall, in the short term, iron ore prices may continue a narrow fluctuating trend in the doldrums.