This week, stainless steel production costs showed a strengthening upward trend, while spot prices rose even more significantly. The cost-price inversion at stainless steel mills was repaired, and profits gradually recovered. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 1.99%. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a strengthening upward trend this week. Affected by the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP, the market expected nickel ore costs to rise. Combined with the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel and SS futures, bullish expectations in the high-grade NPI market were strong. After downstream stainless steel mill profits recovered, their acceptance of high-priced raw materials improved, driving high-grade NPI quotes to stop falling and rebound. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 10 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,090 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices rose sharply this week, driven by nickel ore cost increases and futures market linkage. The revision of nickel ore pricing pushed up cost expectations, and combined with the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI, raw material linkage drove prices higher. Although the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly, it remained attractive to steel enterprises, and market trading activity improved. Despite delayed payment issues dragging on trading pace, the market remained generally strong under futures-spot resonance and demand support, and was expected to consolidate at highs in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,350 yuan/mt. On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although stainless steel prices strengthened somewhat, procurement transactions in the high-carbon ferrochrome market remained sluggish recently. Earlier maintenance and production cut plans were insufficiently implemented, and current supply remained at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, recent declines in chrome ore and coke prices further weakened cost support, and rising nickel-based raw material costs also exerted some downward pressure on ferrochrome prices. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Rise This Week, Market Trading Activity Increased] Pr-Nd oxide market prices, supported by raw material costs and expectations of reduced upstream supply, saw a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity. Suppliers raised their offers one after another, and low-priced supplies tightened rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices rose to 773,000-778,000 yuan/mt over the week.

The domestic EV market showed modest signs of recovery. Upcoming auto shows next week may feature new model launches, which could provide some momentum for future demand.

Raw material prices strengthened today, driving finished steel prices to edge up. The most-traded hot-rolled coil contract closed at 3,290 at the end of the session, up 0.34%. Spot market side, quoted prices in multiple regions edged up accordingly. Cold-rolled side, cold-rolled prices mostly held steady today, with no obvious follow-up gains yet. Going forward, short-term bearish factors on the ore side have been fully priced in, and coking coal and coke prices trended stronger, providing relatively strong cost support in the near term. Hot-rolled coil fundamentals side, inventory drawdowns this week were expected to accelerate WoW, with limited accumulation of supply-demand imbalance. The most-traded hot-rolled coil contract was expected to move sideways in the short term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: At the beginning of the week, futures prices saw wider fluctuations driven by market news. As the news was debunked, futures prices weakened again. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt. Yesterday, the most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,320 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous day but up 70 yuan/mt from Monday. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to edge down slightly this week, but the decline narrowed. On one hand, prices were already approaching the cost lines of most producers; on the other hand, some market "rumors" circulating earlier, combined with unusual movements in futures, gave polysilicon producers more options.

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] Affected by multiple factors, as of 12:00 PM today, Pr-Nd oxide spot prices were quoted at 760,000-765,000 yuan/mt, up approximately 5,000 yuan/mt WoW, and Pr-Nd alloy spot prices were quoted at 920,000-930,000 yuan/mt, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. According to an SMM survey, raw material prices have stabilized recently, and the magnetic material sector has shown growing acceptance of Pr-Nd alloy prices at 915,000-920,000 yuan/mt, beginning to steadily purchase as needed.

Macro tailwinds drive a 320 yuan recovery in SS2605, while high supply and weak spot demand limit the upside

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing overseas market crude oil to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventories of the five major steel products continued to destock, maintaining a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between spot and futures began to take profits...

Stainless steel spot prices rose this week, but production costs pulled back somewhat, narrowing the degree of cost-price inversion for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin was -0.36% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the margin was -0.83%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Stainless steel enterprises continued their earlier cautious purchasing strategy, and recent high-grade NPI transactions remained sluggish. Although high-grade NPI still had cost support, offer prices continued to edge lower under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 1.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,080 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable this week. Although SS futures performed strongly, the transmission effect on stainless steel spot prices was limited, and scrap prices saw no significant boost. On the alternative raw material front, high-grade NPI was weak and ferrochrome prices declined, providing limited support for stainless steel scrap. The cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap still existed, and rising stainless steel finished product prices also provided some support. However, strong cost pressure on steel mills, their strong desire to bargain down prices, and weak market demand collectively constrained price increases. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest quote at approximately 10,150 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although April stainless steel planned production remained at a high level, insufficient end-use demand support made it difficult for stainless steel prices to rise, which in turn weighed on market expectations. In addition, the production cut plans previously set by ferrochrome producers have had limited effect so far, and ferrochrome supply remained at a high level. Recent market transactions were overall sluggish, and producers had to slightly lower their offer prices under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).