SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. Deputy Secretary General Xiao Weiming of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), along with relevant officials from the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the National Health Commission, will introduce policies on further safeguarding and improving people's livelihoods, and answer questions from journalists.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in March, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas fell 0.1%, while rural areas fell 0.3%; food prices fell 1.4%, while non-food prices rose 0.2%; consumer goods prices fell 0.4%, while service prices rose 0.3%. On average from January to March, the national CPI fell 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In March, the national producer price index (PPI) fell 2.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM; the purchasing price index for industrial producers fell 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM. In Q1, both the PPI and the purchasing price index for industrial producers fell 2.3% compared to the same period last year. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the NBS, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for March 2025. In March 2025, the CPI fell 0.1% YoY. In March 2025, the national CPI fell 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas fell 0.1%, while rural areas fell 0.3%; food prices fell 1.4%, while non-food prices rose 0.2%; consumer goods prices fell 0.4%, while service prices rose 0.3%. On average from January to March, the national CPI fell 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In March, the national CPI fell 0.4% MoM. Among them, urban areas fell 0.4%, while rural areas fell 0.3%; food prices fell 1.4%, while non-food prices fell 0.2%; consumer goods prices fell 0.4%, while service prices fell 0.4%. I. YoY Changes in Prices of Various Commodities and Services In March, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 0.6% YoY, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points. Among food items, fresh vegetable prices fell 6.8%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.15 percentage points; egg prices fell 1.6%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.01 percentage points; grain prices fell 1.5%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points; pork prices rose 6.7%, pushing up the CPI by approximately 0.08 percentage points; fresh fruit prices rose 0.9%, pushing up the CPI by approximately 0.02 percentage points. Among the other seven major categories, six rose and one fell YoY. Among them, prices of other goods and services, and clothing rose 6.2% and 1.3%, respectively; prices of education, culture, and entertainment, and household goods and services rose 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively; prices of housing and healthcare both rose 0.1%; while prices of transportation and communication fell 2.6%. II. MoM Changes in Prices of Various Commodities and Services In March, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 0.9% MoM, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points. Among food items, fresh vegetable prices fell 5.1%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points; egg prices fell 2.7%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.02 percentage points; prices of livestock and poultry fell 2.2%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points, among which pork prices fell 4.4%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.06 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell 1.6%, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points. Among the other seven major categories, three rose, two were flat, and two fell MoM. Among them, prices of household goods and services, clothing, and other goods and services rose 1.3%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively; prices of housing and healthcare were flat; prices of transportation and communication, and education, culture, and entertainment fell 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. In March 2025, the PPI fell 2.5% YoY. In March 2025, the national PPI fell 2.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM; the purchasing price index for industrial producers fell 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM. In Q1, both the PPI and the purchasing price index for industrial producers fell 2.3% compared to the same period last year. I. YoY Changes in Industrial Producer Prices In March, prices of production materials in the PPI fell 2.8%, dragging down the overall PPI by approximately 2.09 percentage points. Among them, prices of mining and quarrying fell 8.3%, prices of raw materials fell 2.4%, and prices of processing industries fell 2.6%. Prices of consumer goods fell 1.5%, dragging down the overall PPI by approximately 0.38 percentage points. Among them, food prices fell 1.4%, clothing prices fell 0.3%, prices of general daily necessities rose 0.7%, and prices of durable consumer goods fell 3.4%. In the purchasing price index for industrial producers, prices of ferrous metals fell 7.8%, prices of fuel and power fell 6.8%, prices of chemical raw materials fell 3.4%, prices of agricultural and sideline products fell 3.0%, prices of building materials and non-metals fell 2.1%, and prices of textile raw materials fell 2.0%; prices of non-ferrous metals and wires rose 10.8%. II. MoM Changes in Industrial Producer Prices In March, prices of production materials in the PPI fell 0.4%, dragging down the overall PPI by approximately 0.30 percentage points. Among them, prices of mining and quarrying fell 2.9%, prices of raw materials fell 0.6%, and prices of processing industries fell 0.1%. Prices of consumer goods fell 0.4%, dragging down the overall PPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points. Among them, food prices fell 0.2%, prices of clothing and general daily necessities both fell 0.1%, and prices of durable consumer goods fell 1.0%. In the purchasing price index for industrial producers, prices of fuel and power fell 1.2%, prices of ferrous metals fell 0.6%, prices of building materials and non-metals fell 0.4%, and prices of agricultural and sideline products and textile raw materials both fell 0.1%; prices of non-ferrous metals and wires, and chemical raw materials both rose 0.5%. In March 2025, the YoY Decline in CPI Narrowed, and Core CPI Rebounded —Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the NBS, Interprets the CPI and PPI Data for March 2025 In March, the CPI fell 0.4% MoM and 0.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing significantly; the PPI fell 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY. This was mainly influenced by seasonal and international factors. From a marginal perspective, the effects of policies to boost consumer demand further emerged, with the core CPI rebounding significantly, rising 0.5% YoY, and the supply-demand structure improving, showing some positive changes in prices. I. The MoM Decline in CPI Was Smaller Than Seasonal, the YoY Decline Narrowed, and Core CPI Rebounded Significantly The MoM decline in CPI was mainly influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices. First, as the weather warmed, some fresh foods were in abundant supply, and food supply was generally sufficient. In March, food prices fell 1.4% MoM, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points, accounting for 60% of the total CPI decline. Among them, prices of fresh vegetables, pork, eggs, and fresh fruit fell 5.1%, 4.4%, 3.1%, and 1.6%, respectively, collectively dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.22 percentage points. Second, the number of travelers decreased during the off-season for tourism, and travel-related prices fell. Among them, air ticket and tourism prices fell 11.5% and 5.9%, respectively, collectively dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points. Third, the impact of falling international oil prices. Domestic gasoline prices fell 3.5% MoM, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points. The effects of policies to boost consumer demand gradually emerged, and the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday month faded, showing more positive changes in various aspects. First, the MoM decline in CPI was smaller than the average level of the same period in the past decade, and the increase in industrial consumer goods prices expanded. The CPI fell 0.4% MoM, with the decline being 0.2 percentage points smaller than the average level of the same period in the past decade. The effects of policies such as "trade-in" gradually emerged, and prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 0.5% MoM, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, prices of household appliances, gold jewelry, and clothing rose 2.8%, 2.3%, and 0.7%, respectively, with the increases all higher than the average level of the same period in the past decade. Second, the YoY decline in CPI narrowed, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, food prices fell 1.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing the downward pull on the CPI by approximately 0.35 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among food items, prices of beef, fresh vegetables, eggs, and aquatic products fell 10.8%, 6.8%, 1.6%, and 0.2%, respectively, with the declines narrowing; fresh fruit prices turned from a 1.8% decline in the previous month to a 0.9% increase; pork prices rose 6.7%, with the increase expanding. Third, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rebounded significantly, turning from a 0.1% decline in the previous month to a 0.5% increase YoY. Among them, service prices turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.3% increase YoY, changing the impact on the CPI from a 0.15 percentage point downward pull in the previous month to a 0.13 percentage point upward push. Among services, prices of housekeeping, hairdressing, and cultural and entertainment services rose 2.4%, 1.2%, and 0.7%, respectively, while prices of elderly care and education services rose 1.4% and 1.2%. Prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 0.5% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, increasing the upward push on the CPI by 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, prices of entertainment durable goods and clothing rose 2.0% and 1.5%. II. PPI Continued to Decline, with Some Industries Showing Positive Changes in Prices The MoM decline in PPI was mainly due to the following reasons: First, international factors affected domestic oil and some export industry prices downward. Falling international crude oil prices led to a MoM decline in prices of domestic oil-related industries, among which prices of oil and natural gas extraction fell 4.4%, prices of refined petroleum product manufacturing fell 1.7%, and prices of organic chemical raw material manufacturing fell 0.2%. Prices of some export industries fell MoM, with prices of computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing falling 0.7%, and prices of automobile manufacturing falling 0.4%. Second, seasonal declines in demand for coal and other energy sources. As winter heating in the north gradually ended, demand for heating coal fell, and coal inventories were at high levels. Additionally, new energy power generation had some substitution effect, with prices of coal mining and washing falling 4.3% MoM, and prices of electricity and heat production and supply falling 0.4% MoM, collectively dragging down the PPI by approximately 0.10 percentage points. Third, prices of some raw material industries fell. After the holiday, real estate and infrastructure projects started steadily, and production of steel, cement, and other materials recovered faster than demand, coupled with falling production costs. Prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and non-metallic mineral products both fell 0.5% MoM, collectively dragging down the PPI by approximately 0.05 percentage points. The rapid development of high-tech industries, the effects of policies to promote consumption and equipment upgrades, and improvements in the supply-demand structure of some industries led to positive changes in prices. First, the development of high-tech industries boosted prices in related industries. With the widespread application of artificial intelligence and high-performance large models, prices in related industries either increased YoY or saw a narrowing decline. The price of wearable smart device manufacturing rose by 4.6%. The price declines in electronic circuit manufacturing, industrial automatic control system device manufacturing, and power electronic component manufacturing narrowed by 0.6, 0.4, and 0.2 percentage points MoM, respectively. Manufacturing technologies for aircraft, ships, and others showed significant advantages, with the price of aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing increasing by 2.0% YoY, and the price of ship and related equipment manufacturing rising by 0.7% YoY. Secondly, demand in some consumer goods manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries increased, leading to price increases. Policies promoting consumption and equipment upgrades have taken effect, steadily releasing demand for some consumer goods and equipment manufacturing products. The price of cultural, educational, art, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing increased by 7.6% YoY, while the price of leather, fur, feather, and footwear manufacturing rose by 0.5% YoY. The price of new energy vehicle manufacturing decreased by 1.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.6 percentage points MoM. The price of pharmaceutical equipment manufacturing increased by 6.1% YoY, packaging equipment manufacturing rose by 1.9% YoY, and textile equipment manufacturing increased by 0.2% YoY. Additionally, spring plowing preparations drove seasonal price increases for agricultural materials. As spring plowing work progresses from south to north, demand for agricultural materials has increased, leading to price rises MoM. The price of fertilizer manufacturing increased by 2.5%, seeders rose by 0.7%, herbicides and their preparations increased by 0.4%, and field operation machinery prices rose by 0.2%.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide accelerated, while profits declined by 0.3% from January to February. According to data from the NBS, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 910.99 billion yuan from January to February 2025, a YoY decline of 0.3%. Yu Weining, a statistician from the NBS's Department of Industry, provided an analysis of the industrial enterprise profit data for January to February 2025. During this period, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to improve, the decline in profits narrowed, and the profits of equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing industries shifted from decline to growth, indicating a stable recovery trend in the performance of industrial enterprises.

[National Bureau of Statistics: PV Equipment and Components Manufacturing Prices Dropped 13.0% YoY in February] According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at NBS, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for February 2025. In the equipment manufacturing sector, PV equipment and components manufacturing prices dropped 13.0% YoY, electronic semiconductor material prices fell 9.7% YoY, and automobile manufacturing prices decreased 4.6% YoY, with all declines narrowing compared to the previous month. (National Bureau of Statistics)

On August 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in July, the national industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size by 3.7% YoY, an increase of 0.01% MoM.

To ensure bank liquidity, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points.