Driven primarily by price adjustments from Indonesia, Chinese Taiwan’s 300-series stainless steel HRC imports surged to 59,560 tons in March 2026, giving a 50% month-on-month increase and a 16-month peak. Indonesia’s policy of curbing nickel ore output has kept raw material costs elevated, forcing mills to hike export rates. While March saw a sharp monthly spike, total Q1 imports reached 148,354 tons, down 11.2% year-on-year. Market participants expect import prices to remain high, noting that these elevated costs will likely lead to a reduction in overall purchase volumes in the coming months.

On May 6, 2026, iron ore futures rose sharply today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 816 yuan/mt, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 10-18 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot transaction sentiment remained sluggish. The latest SMM survey data showed that daily average pig iron production edged down by 9,800 mt to 2.4307 million mt; the blast furnace operating rate declined 0.19% to 89.61%. This indicated that overall rigid demand for iron ore, though slightly lower, remained at a high level. Looking ahead, as previously constrained port inventory was released and well absorbed by the market, upward resistance on ore prices has eased amid continuously increasing destocking speed, and there is currently strong upward momentum. However, as raw material costs continue to climb and profits remain under pressure, steel mills may increase maintenance intensity going forward. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, while medium and long-term trends still depend on the ability of steel mills to absorb supply.

2025 annual reports show that companies with captive phosphate rock (BATIAN, Chuanjinnuo, Xingfa) posted profit growth of 122%-158%, while those relying on purchased raw materials (LiuGuo Chemical lost RMB 456 million, Lubei Chemical profit fell 85%) struggled. The pattern of "who owns mines, owns profits" is entrenched.

SMM News, May 6: According to SMM data, the average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry in April 2026 rose by 1.5% month-on-month and fell by 0.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a mild increase in prices of raw and auxiliary materials during the period. In April, the supply gap of primary aluminum overseas pushed up LME aluminum prices. However, high domestic inventory put strong downward pressure on aluminum price upside. The monthly average price of SMM A00 spot aluminum (March 26 - April 25) edged up only 1.0% month-on-month. The profit margin of primary aluminum narrowed slightly by RMB 12 per ton to RMB 8,303 per ton, with the average profit surging 125.1% year-on-year. Calculated based on the monthly average price, 100% of the operational primary aluminum capacity in the domestic market remained profitable in April. Breakdown of Cost Components Alumina price dipped intra-month but monthly average climbed month-on-month SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index stood at RMB 2,736 per ton in the statistical period of March 26 to April 25, up 1.9% month-on-month. The overall operational alumina capacity stayed stable during the month, and prices bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by market rumors over the bauxite quota policy in Guinea, bullish market sentiment picked up moderately. Nevertheless, the relatively high price at the start of the month lifted the overall monthly average. Entering May, with newly commissioned capacity ramping up steadily, alumina output is expected to increase. Meanwhile, continuous inflows of imported alumina into the domestic market will further ease spot alumina supply. Given the pending clarification of Guinea’s bauxite policy, supply tightening may trigger a minor price rebound. Alumina raw material costs are expected to remain in a consolidating trend in April. Rising costs drive up prices of auxiliary materials Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices in April. Higher cost levels kept petroleum coke prices on an upward track, underpinning higher prebaked anode prices. Aluminum fluoride prices also moved higher in April amid rising raw material costs. Auxiliary material prices will maintain an upward trend in May, driving a further rise in the auxiliary material cost of primary aluminum and lifting the overall cost center slightly. Power prices stabilize, hydropower costs expected to drop entering wet season Power prices remained generally steady in April. As the market gradually transitions from the normal water period to the wet season starting in May, hydropower tariffs in some regions are projected to edge down, leading to a mild decline in the power cost of primary aluminum production. Overall, the weighted average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry edged higher in April 2026. The primary aluminum cost is expected to keep rising moderately month-on-month in May, with the average level projected at around RMB 16,200 - 16,600 per ton.

According to Hydro's official website, Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was NOK 8.668 billion, lower than NOK 9.516 billion in the same period last year. This was mainly due to lower raw material costs, higher metal prices, and increased sales of alumina and metals, but this was partially offset by lower alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower electricity generation. Hydro's profitability was strong this quarter, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to NOK 2.07 in the first quarter of 2026, compared to NOK 1.63 in the first quarter of 2025. The upstream business segment continued to operate strongly in the first quarter.

SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

SMM Titanium Dioxide Output TiO₂ production fell 4.86% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.08%. Producer inventories dropped 9.87% month-on-month. The SMM China TiO₂ Index rose 6.94% from early April, driven by high sulfuric acid raw material costs and low inventory levels, fueling strong upward momentum from producers. SMM Sponge Titanium Output Sponge titanium production rose 3.49% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year growth of 11.3%. Prices edged up to RMB 48,000-50,000/t this month, but remain under pressure from industry inventories and weak buying momentum in the downstream titanium materials market. The market is expected to continue narrow range-bound trading.

[SMM Titanium Express] TiO₂ production fell 4.86% month-on-month in April 2026, with cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.08%. Producer inventories dropped 9.87% month-on-month. The SMM China TiO₂ Index rose 6.94% from early April, driven by high sulfuric acid raw material costs and low inventory levels, fueling strong upward momentum from producers.

Volkswagen's CFO, commenting on Middle East volatility, stated that raw material costs were well hedged, but second-wave impacts on demand and costs could not be ruled out.

The cobalt chloride market sentiment this week remained largely unchanged from the previous week, with bulls and bears continuing to wrestle and the stalemate yet to be broken. Supply side, top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotations, with mainstream quotations hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt, supported by solid cost support, with some transactions concluded at around 114,000 yuan/mt. Small and medium-sized producers, under pressure from capital recovery and shipments, lowered quotations to 112,000-114,000 yuan/mt, but actual shipments were limited, generally at 2-3 truckloads. Demand side, downstream enterprises gradually depleted inventory and began considering moderate restocking at low levels, with market inquiries becoming more active and transactions recovering slightly. Overall, the market still lacked clear momentum to drive a price breakthrough. Although low prices appeared from time to time, considering factors such as enterprise performance, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to significantly impact the market. Currently, downside room was very limited, with raw material costs providing strong support. The cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term.