[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise; Spot Stainless Steel Trades Cool Down According to SMM on August 5, SS futures generally pulled back, ending yesterday's shot up, and followed SHFE nickel to slump sharply. As of close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,475 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the renewed decline in SS futures, trading sentiment weakened notably, and traders lowered their quotes. Under the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, transactions turned visibly quiet. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 am, SS2609 was at 14,480 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 490-890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan also fell by 75 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish, dominating metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed's interest rate meeting this week kept rates unchanged as expected, but the overall stance was hawkish, weighing on commodity valuations broadly, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Affected by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with the center of futures moving lower and overall market trading sentiment cautious. Spot and inventory side, futures...

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Call: Raw Material Prices Diverge, Industry Demand Maintains Structural Support] This week, industry chain prices showed divergence. Lithium ore, lithium chemicals, nickel chemicals and cobalt products were overall under pressure. Downstream procurement remained focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and essential restocking, and the market still held expectations of increasing supply and price declines in the long term. Cathode material side, ternary system prices pulled back along with raw material costs, while LFP and iron phosphate strengthened slightly, supported by order growth and cost support. Anode and separator markets held stable overall, and electrolyte moved up, driven by rising additive and solvent prices. Demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles and markets outside China maintained good performance, supporting continued growth in the industry's production schedules, but recovery on the consumption side remained relatively slow.

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Price Hikes Push Up Production Costs, Electrolyte Prices Start an Upward Trend] Recently, upstream raw materials for electrolyte—including additives, lithium chemicals, and solvents—have all seen price increases, continuously squeezing the profit margins of electrolyte enterprises. As cost pressure is gradually transmitted downstream, the electrolyte has entered a price hike cycle.

China's Pr-Nd alloy output rose 3.74% MoM and 7.57% YoY in July, driven by stronger toll processing in Inner Mongolia. Tight Pr-Nd oxide supply raised raw material costs, squeezing margins and curbing output at some producers. Weak magnet demand cut downstream operating rates by 3% MoM, leaving the market oversupplied. In August, alloy output is expected to rise about 1% MoM, while magnet production may increase 2.65% MoM, improving market balance.

[Brazil] Brazilian imported flat steel prices remained largely stable this week, as surging freight rates effectively offset falling FOB offers from major origins. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) import prices held steady at 590 USD/tonne CFR and 700 USD/tonne CFR, respectively. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up shipping fuel costs, counteracting the FOB price cuts made by Vietnamese mills amid sluggish Asian demand and falling raw material costs. In the domestic market, pressured by weak downstream demand, tight credit, and accumulating inventories, Brazilian ex-works HRC prices held flat this week, with no price hikes planned for August. Additionally, Brazilian slab export sales slowed this week, as major exporters finalized internal transfers to their own mills in Europe and the Americas at 575–585 USD/tonne FOB.

[Scrap Aluminum and Secondary Aluminum Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Price Strengthening, High-Temperature Holiday Drags Demand, ADC12 Gains Constrained] This week, ADC12 market prices first stabilized and then rose. SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 24,000 yuan/mt early in the week, were raised for two consecutive days mid-week driven by costs, and stood at 24,200 yuan/mt as of Thursday, up 200 yuan/mt from last Thursday. The cost side remained the core driver of this week's price increase.

[SMM Molybdenum Analysis: Supply-side supported a strong molybdenum market in July; supply-demand support logic persists in August] SMM July 31 report: In July, China’s molybdenum market maintained a pattern of strong concentrates and weak ferro-molybdenum, with the overall market consolidating at highs. Industry chain profits continued to concentrate upstream. In July, China’s molybdenum concentrates market faced many supply disruptions in China and overseas. Coupled with downstream ferro-molybdenum steel tender volumes strengthening both YoY and MoM, and robust demand, these bullish supply-demand fundamentals drove prices of molybdenum concentrates and ferro-molybdenum to repeatedly hit three-year highs, challenging previous highs.

GO Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 Grade: 12,000-12,000 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 Grade: 11,300-11,300 yuan/mt This week, the GO silicon steel market was in the doldrums. Spot prices were lowered by 200-300 yuan/mt, and market transactions were mediocre. Supply side, steel mills maintained stable production, and the ex-works base price for GO silicon steel was raised by 50 yuan/mt in August. Together with raw material costs providing bottom support, this theoretically underpins the market. However, the impact of the off-season is significant, making it difficult to reverse the weakness in spot. Demand side, downstream transformer enterprises are in the traditional off-season, and the progress of power grid tender implementations is relatively slow. End-users only maintained minimal restocking for rigid demand, with insufficient willingness for bulk procurement. Market transactions were sluggish, and trading sentiment was cautious. Amid the balance of bullish and bearish factors, the room for a deep decline is capped by costs and steel mill price adjustments. However, the core issue of weak demand cannot be improved in the short term. It is expected that next week, GO silicon steel will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. Overall, the market will be dominated by wait-and-see sentiment and rigid demand transactions. In local markets with high inventory pressure, a slight further price reduction cannot be ruled out. In the short term, it is difficult to see a one-sided price trend. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. For requests regarding reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part of the content may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties in any form, or licensed for use by third parties. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to seeking contractual liability for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.