According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 20.68 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 15.3% (the same hereinafter). Exports totaled 11.91 trillion yuan, up 11.8%, while imports totaled 8.77 trillion yuan, up 20.5%. In May alone, total goods trade import and export value stood at 4.45 trillion yuan, up 16.9%. Exports were 2.59 trillion yuan, up 13.8%, and imports were 1.86 trillion yuan, up 21.5%. By trade mode, in the first five months, China's Ordinary Trade imports and exports reached 12.47 trillion yuan, up 8.3%; processing trade imports and exports reached 3.95 trillion yuan, up 22.9%; and bonded logistics imports and exports reached 3.59 trillion yuan, up 41.8%. By trading partner, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 3.52 trillion yuan, up 16.6%; with the EU, 2.53 trillion yuan, up 10.3%; and with the US, 1.61 trillion yuan, down 6.6%. Over the same period, combined imports and exports with countries jointly building the Belt and Road reached 10.57 trillion yuan, up 13.6%. By type of enterprise, in the first five months, private enterprises' imports and exports reached 11.81 trillion yuan, up 15.5%; foreign-invested enterprises, 6.02 trillion yuan, up 15.7%; and state-owned enterprises, 2.81 trillion yuan, up 14%. In terms of key commodities, on the export side, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 7.58 trillion yuan, up 18.4%; labor-intensive products, 1.61 trillion yuan, down 3.1%; and agricultural products, 300.79 billion yuan, up 1.6%. On the import side, imports of mechanical and electrical products reached 3.54 trillion yuan, up 25.3%; crude oil, 218 million mt, down 4.8%; and agricultural products, 618.16 billion yuan, up 7.6%. SMM has compiled the import and export data for selected metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in May 2026 5,490.4 mt, a YoY decrease of 6.4% vs. May 2025 . Cumulative exports in January-May 2026 reached 25,378.0 mt, a YoY increase of 2.2% vs. the same period of 2025. Steel exports in May 2026 10.341 million mt, a YoY decrease of 2.2% vs. May 2025 . Aluminum semis exports in January-May 2026 totaled 4,455.4 mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 8.1 %. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in May 2026 reached 632,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, up 15.5% . Cumulative exports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.685 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, up 10.4%. Imports: Imports of iron ore and concentrates in May 2026 reached 97.711 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 0.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 516.258 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, up 6.3%. Imports of copper ore and concentrates in May 2026 reached 2.361 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 1.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 12.275 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 1% . Imports of coal and lignite in May 2026 reached 33.265 million mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 7.7% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 182.623 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 3.2%. Imports of rare earths in May 2026 reached 6,770.2 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 42.1% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 47,628.0 mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 2.8%. Imports of steel in May 2026 reached 451,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, down 6.2%. Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.255 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 12.2%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper semis in May 2026 reached 446,000 mt, on a YoY basis from May 2025, up 4.4% . Cumulative imports in the first five months of 2026 reached 2.013 million mt, on a YoY basis from January-May 2025, down 7 % .

According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade import and export value was 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports were 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. Trade mode, in the first four months, China's Ordinary Trade imports and exports reached 982 billion yuan, up 8.5%; processing trade imports and exports reached 308 billion yuan, up 21.3%; bonded logistics imports and exports reached 281 billion yuan, up 38.7%. Trading partner, in the first four months, China's total trade with ASEAN was 275 billion yuan, up 15.7%; China's total trade with the EU was 201 billion yuan, up 13.2%; China's total trade with the US was 125 billion yuan, down 12.9%. During the same period, China's total imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries reached 828 billion yuan, up 13.5%. Foreign trade entities, in the first four months, private enterprises' imports and exports reached 931 billion yuan, up 15.9%; foreign-invested enterprises' imports and exports reached 472 billion yuan, up 15.4%; state-owned enterprises' imports and exports reached 216 billion yuan, up 9.8%. Key commodities, on the export side, in the first four months, China exported electromechanical products worth 592 billion yuan, up 17.6%; labor-intensive products worth 126 billion yuan, down 2.6%; agricultural products worth 240.15 billion yuan, up 2%. On the import side, in the first four months, China imported electromechanical products worth 276 billion yuan, up 23.6%; crude oil of 185 million mt, an increase of 1.3%; agricultural products worth 475.73 billion yuan, up 10.3%. SMM compiled the import and export data of selected products in the metals industry based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: Exports: Rare Earth Exports, Apr 2026 5,308.6 mt, up 10.9% YoY vs. Apr 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 were 19,887.6 mt, up 4.9% YoY vs. January to April 2025. Steel exports in Apr 2026 were 9.498 million mt, down 9.2% YoY vs. Apr 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 3,421.4 mt, down 9.7 % YoY from January-April 2025 . In April 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 598,000 mt , up 15.4% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 2.053 million mt, up 8.9% YoY from January-April 2025. Imports: In April 2026, iron ore and concentrates imports reached 103.854 million mt, up 0.7% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 418.587 million mt, up 8.0% YoY from January-April 2025. In April 2026, copper ore and concentrates imports reached 2.352 million mt, down 19.6% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 9.915 million mt, down 0.8% YoY from January-April 2025 . In April 2026, coal and lignite imports reached 33.083 million mt, down 12.5% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 149.36 million mt, down 2.1% YoY from January-April 2025. In April 2026, rare earth imports reached 8,780.7 mt, down 30.4% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 40,857.8 mt, up 9.5% YoY from January-April 2025. In April 2026, steel imports reached 452,000 mt, down 10.9% YoY from April 2025. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY from January-April 2025. In April 2026, unwrought copper and copper semis imports reached 452,000 mt, up 3.2% YoY from April 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 1.567 million mt, down 9.8 % YoY from January-April 2025 .

In April, the rare earth market, especially the oxide segment, generally showed a trend of rising prices and declining volumes. Specifically, Pr-Nd oxide saw a price increase of 7.07% in April, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide both edged up in April. However, due to supply disruptions in the recycling segment, rare earth oxide production all contracted MoM in April. On the foreign trade front, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that rare earth import and export figures in the first four months both grew YoY. Since the beginning of May, downstream demand has shown no improvement, market inquiry activity has been low, and prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide have generally trended downward. Currently, the tight rare earth supply situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, and whether downstream demand can recover and whether foreign trade exports can continue to shine will influence the direction of the rare earth market going forward. Pr-Nd oxide rose 7.07% in April; dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide edged up slightly in April Light rare earth prices: Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on April 30 was 772,500 yuan/mt, compared with 721,500 yuan/mt on March 31, representing an increase of 51,000 yuan/mt in April, with a monthly gain of 7.07%. Entering May, Pr-Nd oxide was generally in a pullback trend, and on May 8, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 757,500 yuan/mt. Medium-heavy rare earth prices: Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of dysprosium oxide on April 30 was 1,375 yuan/kg, compared with 1,365 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 10 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.73%. Entering May, dysprosium oxide prices pulled back, with the average price on May 8 at 1,340 yuan/kg. Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of terbium oxide on April 30 was 6,125 yuan/kg, compared with 6,080 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 45 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.74%. Entering May, terbium oxide prices declined, and as of May 8, the average price edged down slightly to 6,110 yuan/kg. Pr-Nd oxide and medium-heavy rare earth production both declined MoM in April Production: Pr-Nd oxide : Pr-Nd oxide production contracted MoM in April. Affected by the dual factors of equipment maintenance and insufficient raw material inventory, recycled Pr-Nd oxide output saw a notable contraction. Meanwhile, some raw ore separation enterprises also experienced production shutdowns, further exacerbating the tightening on the supply side. Both raw ore and recycled segments contracted simultaneously, leading to a notable MoM decline in Pr-Nd oxide supply in April. Medium-heavy rare earth oxides: Medium-heavy rare earth production also edged down slightly MoM in April. Among them, ion-adsorption ore separation enterprises maintained relatively stable overall operations, with no significant fluctuations in production pace. However, production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises weighed on the overall output level of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. As scrap recycling accounts for a certain share of the medium-heavy rare earth supply system, production cuts in this segment affected the total monthly output, resulting in a slight MoM decline in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production. Imports and exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 5,308.6 mt of rare earths in April, up 10.9% YoY; cumulative rare earth exports during January-April reached 19,887.6 mt, up 4.9% YoY. China imported 8,780.7 mt of rare earths in April, down 30.44% YoY; cumulative rare earth imports during January-April amounted to 40,857.8 mt, up 9.5% YoY. Outlook Regarding the outlook for rare earths, supply side, oxide production contracted in April, and the short-term tight supply situation has not eased, with the supply end still providing certain support to rare earth prices. Demand side, before any notable improvement in downstream demand, weak demand is expected to continue suppressing rare earth market performance. However, based on customs export data, the 10.9% growth in rare earth exports in April provided certain external demand support to rare earth prices. If rare earth export data continues to grow in May, it is expected to further boost market confidence. In addition, China and the US are currently in communication regarding Trump's planned visit to China in mid-May. If this head-of-state meeting proceeds smoothly, the two sides may exchange views on issues such as economy and trade and the stability of critical minerals supply chains. Considering US concerns over rare earth supply chain security, if the relevant communication achieves pragmatic progress, it may bring marginal improvement expectations to the rare earth export environment. However, its impact still needs to be cautiously assessed in light of the actual outcomes of the meeting and subsequent policy developments. Overall, the short-term rare earth market will continue to seek direction amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the upstream and downstream segments, while changes in external demand and progress in China-US economic and trade communications warrant continued attention. Recommended reading:

SMM April 20 News: Affected by tight raw material supply, germanium prices rose over 27% in more than three months. Meanwhile, production halts at some separation plants provided supply-side support for rare earths. Combined with downstream enterprise inventories falling to low levels and downstream restocking demand, rare earth prices continued to rise. The surge in end-use demand from AI computing power, semiconductors, robotics, and other sectors also brought positive demand expectations to the minor metal sector. Coupled with inflows of some market funds, the minor metal sector rose for three consecutive trading days. As of the close on April 20, the minor metal sector gained 3%. In terms of individual stocks: Yunnan Germanium Industry and Western Metal Materials hit the daily limit, while China Rare Colored Metals, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Tantalum Industry, China Tungsten Hightech, China Rare Earth, and China Northern Rare Earth were among the top gainers. Spot Market Rare Earths Spot market side, Pr-Nd oxide prices continued to strengthen over the past two trading days. On April 20, Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 800,000-805,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 802,500 yuan/mt, up 0.94% from the previous trading day. Driven by tight supply expectations from production halts at some separation plants, upstream suppliers had a strong mentality to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, while downstream enterprises were currently at low inventory levels. The rebound in rare earth prices brought some restocking demand into the market, further supporting continued rare earth price increases. As the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose above 800,000 yuan/mt again, wait-and-see sentiment in the market gradually intensified, while downstream magnetic material enterprises had limited acceptance of high-priced metals, and purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the short term, supported by strong upstream confidence in holding prices firm, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to hover at highs. Germanium Affected by tight raw material supply, the price center of germanium shifted upward overall. On April 20, SMM germanium ingot was priced at 15,000-19,500 yuan/kg, with an average price of 17,250 yuan/kg, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of 17,250 yuan/kg on the 20th was up 3,750 yuan/kg from the low of 13,500 yuan/kg on January 14, a gain of 27.77% over more than three months. Institutional Views According to a Huafu Securities research report, the main drivers behind the sharp rise in rare earth Pr-Nd prices last week included the dual effects of supply-side tightening and demand-side recovery. In terms of supply, the market widely reflected tightening rare earth raw material supply, especially as news of significant production cuts or halts at some enterprises was circulating recently, with quotes continuing to tighten. From January to February 2026, cumulative rare earth exports reached 10,468 mt, up 23% YoY; of which February alone saw exports of 4,407 mt, up 37% YoY. Robust export demand diverted spot cargo resources in China, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. In the short term, the market is still expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is warranted against resistance to transactions at high levels. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, China Gold International, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. A research report from Guojin Securities noted that the earlier impact of electronic trading platform liquidity was gradually being digested, and prices were stabilizing; combined with expectations of more relaxed exports going forward, we are more optimistic about subsequent demand; the export rush coupled with ongoing supply-side reforms points to a promising resonance in rare earth supply and demand. A research report from Dongguan Securities stated that, looking ahead, the growth rate of rare earth supply-side quotas in China is expected to slow down. Demand side, humanoid robots, the low-altitude economy, and other sectors are expected to open up a second growth driver for rare earth demand this year, and the supply-demand logic of the rare earth industry is expected to be further optimized. The slowdown in quota growth in China, combined with limited incremental supply outside China, points to continued tightening of overall supply. Recommended reading:

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s rare earth exports reached 10,468 mt, up 23% YoY, while the export value was approximately 480 million yuan, down 17.6% YoY. During the same period, exports of rare earths and their products totaled 22,745 mt, up 13.6% YoY, and the export value was approximately 4.51 billion yuan, up 11.4% YoY.

Karin Radstrom, CEO of Daimler Truck, a German commercial vehicle manufacturer, stated that the company has decided to increase its inventory of rare earths and key raw materials in the short term to mitigate production risks. Despite the need for additional investment, the company's procurement department is closely monitoring relevant developments, and there have been no supply disruptions or production halts so far. This decision is deemed necessary due to the heightened supply uncertainty caused by China's restrictions on rare earth exports.

[SMM Commentary: General Administration of Customs Issues Announcement on Querying Suspected Controlled Goods Without Certificates] On June 16, the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement regarding matters related to customs queries on the export control of dual-use items. It requires customs to implement query procedures for suspected controlled item exports without certificates. Enterprises are required to submit supporting materials such as contracts and technical reports within 7 working days, during which the goods will not be released.

India has halted rare earth exports to Japan, ending a 13-year bilateral agreement. This move aims to ensure domestic rare earth supply but has impacted Toyota Tsusho India, which previously exported about one-third of India's rare earth production to Japan.

According to US media reports, the US military has not yet made a decision on export licenses for special rare earth magnets, which are used in equipment such as fighter jets and missile systems. The US still restricts China's purchase of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips, citing their potential military value. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that during the London talks, the Chinese side pledged to expedite the approval of rare earth export applications from non-military US state-owned enterprises. So far, it has received tens of thousands of applications, with the relevant export licenses valid for six months. China also proposed establishing a green channel for "trusted" US state-owned enterprises to streamline the approval process. For some special military rare earths, including samarium, strict control measures are in place, and these rare earths are not included in the expedited approval scope covered by the London agreement.

US automaker Ford Motor Company still faces challenges in securing supplies of rare earth magnets, which are critical for vehicle production. Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, said that the supply of these key components has consistently come from China, but with China implementing a new approval process for rare earth exports, the supply continues to slow down. Ford can only confirm daily whether there is sufficient rare earth supply, forcing it to shut down some factories to barely maintain production. In May, due to a supply deficit of rare earths, Ford's Explorer SUV factory in Chicago halted production for a week. Farley said that while he is pleased with the recent progress in US-China trade negotiations, he has yet to see an improvement in the supply situation for magnets. He also mentioned that Ford has submitted applications to China's Ministry of Commerce, which are currently being reviewed one by one.