Editor’s Note: Looking back at the H1 rare earth market, it was truly a case of “you reap what you sow.” The rare earth sector as a whole drifted higher amid consolidation, while price performance diverged across products. Pr-Nd oxide rose 22.42% in H1, dysprosium oxide increased 5.97%, and terbium oxide gained 8.37%. As the tide lifts all boats, the rise in rare earth prices directly boosted operating returns for enterprises across the industry chain. According to SMM statistics, the 10 rare earth-related firms that have disclosed semi-annual reports, preliminary earnings releases, and earnings forecasts all delivered varying degrees of earnings growth in H1. The market is now eagerly awaiting the realization of demand in the traditional peak season. At this period of transition from summer to autumn, can the H2 rare earth market sustain H1’s gains, and what kind of market landscape will emerge for upstream and downstream players in the rare earth industry chain? Multiple Rare Earth Companies Report Strong H1 Results A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by China Rare Earth on the evening of July 13 showed that, based on preliminary estimates by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,700 million yuan to 4,300 million yuan, an increase of 297.5013 million yuan to 357.5013 million yuan from the same period last year, up 410.35% to 493.11% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,680.027 million yuan to 4,280.027 million yuan, an increase of 276.2326 million yuan to 336.2326 million yuan from the same period last year, up 301.00% to 366.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected earnings increase for the period, China Rare Earth stated: (1) In H1 2026, amid changes in the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry and YoY increases in prices of major rare earth products, the company enhanced overall operating value of its core rare earth business by innovating an integrated operating model, coordinating rare earth raw material procurement for separation plants and full-product market sales, and dynamically adjusting its product output mix based on analysis of changes in supply and demand. (2) The company vigorously advanced loss-making enterprise remediation and deepened reform initiatives, achieving notable results; resources were further concentrated in core main businesses and advantaged businesses, and loss-making enterprises significantly reduced losses YoY. (3) The company’s investee, Dabaoshan, maintained stable and high output; sales and prices of copper and sulfur products both rose YoY, increasing enterprise profitability, and the company’s investment income recognized under the equity method increased. A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by Huahong Technology on the evening of July 13 showed that net profit attributable to the parent in H1 2026 was expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology stated: In H1 2026, benefiting from industry policies and a rebound in downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s comprehensive utilization segment for rare earth resources seized market opportunities, fully leveraging its overall advantages in capacity scale, cost control, and process technologies, continuously optimizing supply–production–sales coordination and inventory management strategies, and effectively driving a full release of profitability in this segment. The company continued to deepen its layout across the rare earth industry chain, with its downstream rare earth permanent magnet material business expanding steadily. Benefiting from stable demand in end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power, and industrial automation, this segment continued to scale up, with revenue and product mix continuously improving, becoming an important supplement to earnings growth. Xiamen Tungsten’s semiannual performance forecast showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be about 2.2160318 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2467133 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 128.62% YoY. Based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after excluding non-recurring gains and losses would be about 2.1760263 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2534882 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 135.87% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Xiamen Tungsten explained: In H1, amid a market environment where material prices for major raw materials such as tungsten, cobalt, lithium carbonate, and Pr-Nd oxide rose YoY and swung wildly, the company responded proactively, dynamically adjusted its operating strategy, and drove a linked rise in selling prices; meanwhile, it continued to enhance product quality and market development capabilities. Sales of major products such as alloy bars, cutting tools, power battery cathode materials, and magnetic materials climbed steadily, and profitability across the company’s three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths—improved to varying degrees. Ningbo Yunsheng disclosed a performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be 240 million yuan to 310 million yuan; compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed figures), it would increase by 132.1657 million yuan to 202.1657 million yuan, up 122.56%–187.48% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 2.1 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 1.3954 billion yuan to 1.913954 billion yuan, up 137.01% to 216.01% YoY. Ningbo Yunsheng stated that the main reasons for this performance increase were: during the reporting period, the Company remained client demand-oriented, deeply focused on NEVs, consumer electronics, industrial and other application fields, actively explored emerging and regional markets, seized development opportunities for new projects, continuously optimized its business mix, and increased the proportion of revenue from outside China. Meanwhile, the Company continued to deepen refined management, driving higher product gross margins and resulting in an increase in net profit. The semiannual earnings forecast released by China Northern Rare Earth showed that, based on a preliminary estimate by the Company’s finance department, the net profit attributable to owners of the parent was expected to be 19.8 billion yuan to 20.6 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.5 billion yuan to 11.3 billion yuan, up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. The net profit attributable to owners of the parent, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 19.9 billion yuan to 20.7 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.93 billion yuan to 11.73 billion yuan, up 121.90% to 130.82% YoY. As for the main reasons for the performance increase in the current period: In H1 2026, the Company served the national rare earth resources strategy and fully implemented the requirements for secure control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as constrained supply on the raw material end of the market and the release of downstream demand across multiple areas with sustained growth, rare earth product prices overall strengthened and consolidated. Centered on the annual production and operating task targets, the Company made coordinated planning and adopted comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, pursued cost reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in synergy, scientifically organized production and production schedules, stepped up market sales and marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, strengthened group management and risk prevention and control, and advanced the deep integration of specialized management, lean management and 5S management with high quality. It promoted the construction of key projects, accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and scientific research and innovation, and provided solid support and assurance for the Company to achieve sound operating results with strong industry chain value creation capability and core competitiveness. The Company scientifically refined its production organization and operations, and production of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and rare earth new materials all reached record highs for the same period; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia North Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up approximately 107% YoY, maintaining a growth trend for three consecutive years; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi’aoke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into official operation in Baotou City, with cumulative safe mileage reaching 170,000 kilometers, and the project’s demonstration effect was significant. The company continued to benchmark against advanced practices both internally and externally to further tap its potential, strengthened refined management, and achieved significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Based on targeted measures across business segments: the smelting and separation segment overcame new changes in production costs caused by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively controlled cost fluctuations, and scientifically organized production and production scheduling to ensure new demand for product supply; the rare earth metals segment used the strengthening of lean production as a key lever and leveraged digital and intelligent tools to further enhance on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material consumption ratios; the rare earth new materials and applications segment fully leveraged the advantages of newly added capacity, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in using production to drive sales promotions. The company deepened coordinated linkage across the industry chain, and on the basis of ensuring stable product supply, consolidated the foundation of cooperation with downstream clients. Shenghe Resources’ H1 performance forecast released on July 10 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 was expected to be 800 million to 930 million yuan, an increase of 423.0938 million to 553.0938 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 112.25% to 146.75% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 790 million to 920 million yuan, an increase of 426.487 million to 556.487 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 117.32% to 153.09% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Shenghe Resources stated that during the reporting period, influenced by factors such as rare earth industry policies and downstream demand, overall market demand for the company’s major rare earth products improved, and product prices and average selling prices rose significantly compared with the previous year. The company seized market opportunities, optimized its production and sales structure, strengthened management empowerment and cost control, thereby driving a substantial increase in performance. According to the semi-annual report recently released by China Rare Earth, in H1, the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry continued to be adjusted and optimized; driven by multiple favorable factors such as rare earth industry policies and a boost in downstream market demand, the overall market trend rose, and Pr-Nd product prices increased notably compared to the same period last year. In line with the annual work plan, the company anchored its targets and further increased pressure, rode the momentum and strove to lead, strengthened Party-building leadership, and closely focused on six key tasks—resource security, efficient operations, technological innovation, project development, deepening reform, and capability building—making targeted efforts and achieving significant phased results. Both operational performance and quality improved in tandem, all operating targets and tasks were successfully completed, and the company worked hard to create a new landscape of high-quality leapfrog development, laying the foundation for a strong start to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. In H1 , the company achieved operating revenue of 1.647 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 237 million yuan, up 46.53% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 240 million yuan, up 55.49% YoY. The H1 performance forecast disclosed by Tianhe Magnetics on July 9 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 was expected to be 73 million yuan to 93 million yuan, representing an increase of 19.5448 million yuan to 39.5448 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 36.56% to 73.98% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 68 million yuan to 88 million yuan, representing an increase of 32.5723 million yuan to 52.5723 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 91.94% to 148.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in H1 performance, Tianhe Magnetics stated: 1、 In H1, raw material prices fluctuated at elevated levels overall. The company optimized its pricing strategy for certain existing inventory and new orders, and raised product selling prices. 2、In 2026, the company proactively seized market opportunities and carried out sales efforts around “focusing on emerging markets, deepening customer relationships, and optimizing channel layout,” achieving dual-engine growth driven by both international and China markets. Market development delivered notable results, and overall operating revenue is expected to increase by about 30% YoY, with revenue from China operations expected to increase by about 50% YoY. 3、During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 5 million yuan, versus non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) of 18.0275 million yuan in the same period last year. The H1 performance forecast released by JL MAG Rare-Earth on July 1 showed that net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in H1 2026 was expected to be 400 million yuan to 460 million yuan, up 31.17%-50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its announcement: 1、In H1 2026, the company’s management adhered to the annual operating policy of “upholding lawfulness and compliance, maintaining a customer-oriented approach, focusing on the core magnetic material business, building 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively deploying motor rotors for embodied robots, and reaching new peaks again.” Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digital development, and lean management, the company ensured contract performance and delivery to its broad client base while achieving steady growth in operating performance. The company continued to consolidate its leading position in the new energy and energy-saving environmental protection sectors, actively expanded into emerging markets, and operating revenue was expected to be up about 30% YoY. In particular, operating revenue in the NEV and automotive parts segment was up about 30% YoY; in the robotics and industrial servo motor segment, operating revenue was up about 90% YoY, and embodied-robot motor rotor products had already been delivered in small batches. 2. During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 32 million yuan; non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) in the same period last year were 70.9405 million yuan. 3. During this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives and the issuance of H-share convertible bonds, related expenses such as share-based payment expenses and financial expenses totaled about 121 million yuan; there were no such expenses in the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan released its 2026 H1 performance bulletin on the evening of July 20, showing that in H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 36,137.721 million yuan, up 23.67% YoY; total profit of 1,028.001 million yuan, up 1.18% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 492.189 million yuan, up 11.88% from the same period last year; and after excluding the impact of non-recurring gains and losses such as government subsidies, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 323.035 million yuan, up 2.25% from the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan’s semiannual performance bulletin showed that in 2026 H1, amid increasingly intense market competition and a complex and volatile external environment, through the joint efforts of all employees, the company’s core product sales were up YoY, and cost-reduction measures such as optimizing formulation processes and reducing the usage of heavy rare earth helped lift the overall gross margin up YoY; the operations of some subsidiaries improved, achieving reduced losses or a turnaround; meanwhile, the company further improved inventory management, optimized the inventory mix of key raw materials, and impairment losses decreased YoY. Affected by the RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the euro, the company incurred foreign exchange losses during the reporting period, and financial expenses increased YoY, partially offsetting the profit growth. In H1 This Year, Pr-Nd oxide Rose 22.42%; Dysprosium Oxide and Terbium Oxide Both Increased In 2026 H1, the rare earth oxide market went through a roller-coaster cycle of “sharp surge—plunge—repair—re-divergence.” Pr-Nd oxide saw the most dramatic price fluctuations, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose first, then fell, and then rebounded. Reviewing the H1 price trends of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide shows that: The average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from its average price of 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 22.42%. Meanwhile, the semiannual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 309,577.18 yuan/mt YoY from its daily average of 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY increase of 71.84%. The average price of dysprosium oxide on June 30 was 1,420 yuan/kg, up 80 yuan/kg from its average price of 1,340 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 5.97%. However, comparing the daily average price of dysprosium oxide in H1 this year (1,394.09 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (1,660.26 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 16.03% YoY. The average price of terbium oxide on June 30 was 6,475 yuan/kg, up 500 yuan/kg from its average price of 5,975 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 8.37%. However, comparing the daily average price of terbium oxide in H1 this year (6,200.26 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (6,634.62 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 6.55% YoY. Since entering August, the rare earth market has maintained a move sideways pattern amid a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. At present, downstream enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases is not high, market inquiry activity remains relatively limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is sluggish, with rare earth prices continuing to diverge: the Pr-Nd market was affected by the continued pullback in futures prices, leading some suppliers to slightly lower their quotes; medium-heavy rare earth prices showed strong resilience and generally remained stable. In the short term, affected by the market stalemate, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a narrow range. In the medium and long-term, SMM expects that overall supply of Pr-Nd oxide in 2026 will still have a tight underlying basis, but with new capacity in H2 gradually coming on stream, previously idle smelting and separation capacity plans to start up, and subsequent pressure for supply-side loosening may gradually emerge. On the demand side, rising toll processing orders at metal plants in Inner Mongolia will provide some rigid demand support for Pr-Nd oxide. As the traditional September-October peak season approaches, the market holds strong expectations for downstream restocking and stockpiling; end-use demand still has a considerable number of NEV orders awaiting concentrated release in H2. The industrial robot sector’s boom is expected to continue, and demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to post a notable increase YoY within the year. While emerging tracks such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are developing rapidly and offer ample long-term growth potential, they are still in the early stage of industry cultivation, and their actual incremental contribution to rare earth permanent magnets remains limited for now. Whether expectations for peak-season demand will be fulfilled and the pace at which new capacity is released will become the key variables shaping the subsequent rare earth market. Voices From Different Parties A research report released by Datong Securities on August 11 noted that rare earth spot prices pulled back in the short term, and downstream magnetic material enterprises were relatively cautious in procurement. However, amid three supply constraints—tighter mining quotas, upgraded export controls, and production cuts in scrap recycling—together with restocking demand in markets outside China, the logic of strategic revaluation remained intact. Overall, policy controls and demand from emerging industries continued to jointly drive the minor metal sector, with the commodity and financial attributes of scarce resources reinforcing each other, and the valuation-repair rally still extending. A China Securities research report stated that, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth exports in July fell markedly while the average price rose. July rare earth exports totaled 4,223.5 mt, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest single-month level since March; cumulative exports in January–July were 34,706.3 mt, down 10% YoY. Meanwhile, the corresponding average export price was $12.34/kg, surging 103.14% YoY. The export mix tilted toward higher-value medium-heavy rare earth products; markets outside China accepted higher-priced raw material, and the tight global rare earth supply-demand pattern persisted. On the supply side, there was no growth for the time being; production at separation enterprises remained stable, and enterprises that had halted production earlier had no plans to resume operations. Downstream rigid demand support was moderate, and long-term demand expectations were improving. Rare earth prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term. A Citic Securities research report indicated that, against the backdrop of constraints from indicators combined with declining imports, rigidness in rare earth supply continued to strengthen. Affected by tighter tax policy, the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises remained persistently low. Industry chain rigid-demand restocking, together with the approaching peak season, is expected to drive demand to recover. Emerging fields such as robotics, the low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up longer-term demand growth space. The rare earth industry’s supply-demand pattern may remain tight, and as price increases drive performance, interim results of rare earth industry chain companies are expected to beat expectations. It continued to recommend the strategic allocation value of the rare earth industry chain. Recommended Reading: To learn more fundamental, technical, and policy information on motor raw materials such as rare earths, copper, and aluminum, please participate in: ~

According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of 2026, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 30.13 trillion yuan, a YoY (the same hereinafter) increase of 17.3%. Exports were 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports were 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2%. Exports were 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%; imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. By trade mode, in the first seven months, China's ordinary trade imports and exports reached 18.13 trillion yuan, up 10.2%; processing trade imports and exports stood at 5.81 trillion yuan, up 26.3%; bonded logistics imports and exports were 5.18 trillion yuan, up 40.8%. By trading partner, in the first seven months, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 5.14 trillion yuan, up 20%; with the EU, it was 3.67 trillion yuan, up 9.5%; with the US, it was 2.38 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. Over the same period, China's combined imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries amounted to 15.36 trillion yuan, up 15.5%. By type of enterprise, in the first seven months, private enterprises' imports and exports stood at 17.16 trillion yuan, up 17.2%; foreign-invested enterprises' imports and exports were 8.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6%; state-owned enterprises' imports and exports reached 4.14 trillion yuan, up 17.3%. By key commodities, On the export side, in the first seven months, China exported 11.12 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 21.2%; labor-intensive products 2.37 trillion yuan, down 1.4%; agricultural products 429.69 billion yuan, up 3.7%. On the import side, in the first seven months, China imported 5.31 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 29.7%; 283 million mt of crude oil, down 13.2%; and 904.1 billion yuan of agricultural products, up 7.4%. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some metal industry products as follows: Exports: In July 2026, rare earth exports were 4,223.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 29.5% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 34,706.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 10% from January-July 2025. In July 2026, steel exports were 10.121 million mt, a YoY increase of 2.9% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 6,499.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 4.4 % from January-July 2025. In July 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 643,000 mt , a YoY increase of 18.6% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative exports were 4.039 million mt, a YoY increase of 16.7% from January-July 2025. Imports: In July 2026, iron ore and concentrates imports were 108.085 million mt, a YoY increase of 3.3% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 736.841 million mt, a YoY increase of 5.9% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, copper ore and concentrates imports were 2.379 million mt, a YoY decrease of 7.1% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 16.985 million mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, coal and lignite imports were 42.728 million mt, a YoY increase of 20% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 268.109 million mt, a YoY increase of 4.3% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, rare earth imports reached 9,451.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 63,323.0 mt, a YoY decrease of 65.5% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, steel imports reached 445,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 3.14 million mt, a YoY decrease of 10.1% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 425,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 11.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 2.915 million mt, a YoY decrease of 6.2 % .

This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

According to foreign media reports, Malaysia is considering allowing the export of some unprocessed rare earths to strengthen its position in supply chains across industries ranging from auto manufacturing to national defense and consumer goods. Malaysia suspended the export of unprocessed rare earths in 2024 to stimulate investment in the domestic processing industry—a common tactic among resource-rich developing countries. However, as competition surrounding these minerals intensifies, authorities are now assessing the feasibility of easing the restrictions, according to a senior government official.

[SMM Rare Earth Express] The Malaysian government stated that it is evaluating adjustments to its unprocessed rare earth export policy, proposing to allow the resumption of exports of some unprocessed rare earths under conditions such as accompanying investment and technology transfer, in order to balance resource development with industrial development. Deputy Minister Syed of Malaysia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability said that the relevant policy is still under study, and no implementation timetable has been set. Malaysia has suspended the export of unprocessed rare earths since 2024 to promote investment in the domestic rare earth processing industry. Official data shows that Malaysia has about 16.1 million mt of inferred rare earth resources, with a potential value of approximately 970 billion ringgit.

Background: Pangkalpinang Case Triggers Tighter Regulation of Rare Earth Elements in Indonesia’s Mineral Exports Recently, the detection issues surrounding Indonesia’s rare earth elements, or Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) , primarily stemmed from stricter government oversight of related mineral product exports following the Pangkalpinang case. The initial case involved an anomalous export of approximately 390 mt of materials containing rare earth elements and implicated PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri, PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs Office. It raised a broader regulatory question: when a mineral product contains rare earth or radioactive elements as associated elements, should the product continue to be treated under its primary export commodity classification or be subject to rare earth-related export restrictions. This issue quickly rippled through Indonesia’s broader mineral export chain. High-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products are not themselves exported as rare earth products, but they may contain trace amounts of associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements. Consequently, with regulatory parameters not yet fully clarified, surveyors and customs tended to be cautious, causing a slowdown in LS report issuance and customs clearance for some shipments. For the nickel industry, the incident quickly became a market focal point, as exports of high-grade NPI, NPI, and MHP were all affected by additional testing requirements. Market feedback indicated that some cargoes experienced short-term port detentions or shipment disruptions, and the impact was not confined to a single enterprise. Some traders also reported that related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the period of disruption. Why Rare Earth Elements Matter: Indonesia Strengthens Value Controls Over Critical Minerals Before Export Rare earth elements have drawn attention due to their extensive application in high-value-added fields such as EVs, permanent magnet materials, electronic products, new energy, and national defense-related materials. For Indonesia, this issue is not only about export customs clearance but also about resource value control. The Indonesian government is placing increasing emphasis on identifying, regulating, and protecting the value of critical mineral resources before they leave the country. The problem is that rare earth elements often do not exist as standalone products but appear as associated or trace elements in other minerals. If all products containing small amounts of rare earth elements were treated as restricted rare earth exports, normal mineral exports could be disrupted; yet if rare earth content is not identified or regulated at all, Indonesia could lose control over the value of strategic minerals. The commonly recognized 17 rare earth elements include: lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, yttrium, and scandium . In recent market discussions, the testing scope mainly involved these 17 rare earth elements, while radioactive elements such as thorium and uranium also became items of inspection concern. Rare earth elements are often not produced as independent products but exist in other minerals in the form of associated elements . This also creates a regulatory gray area. If every export shipment containing trace rare earth elements were treated as rare earth exports, many normal mineral shipments could face delays. But if associated rare earth content is not tested at all, Indonesia risks the loss of strategic mineral value. Therefore, the market’s focus is not merely on whether nickel product exports are disrupted; the larger question is whether Indonesia is entering a new regulatory phase requiring more detailed chemical composition verification for mineral exports. What Happened in the Market: LS Report Delays and Additional Testing Disrupted Mineral Shipments According to SMM’s market understanding, the recent testing requirements temporarily affected the export of some processed mineral products from Indonesia. For nickel products, the impact was mainly reflected in three aspects. Delays in LS report issuance. LS reports are critical documents in the export process, and delays in their issuance directly affect customs clearance and cargo release. According to SMM’s understanding as of July 24, relevant authorities also noted that laboratory testing preparations remained relatively limited, and due to differing interpretations of how to handle rare earth elements during export verification, 102 LS survey reports were still pending. Short-term port detentions for some cargoes. Market feedback indicated that shipments of some NPI and MHP cargoes were affected, and some traders also mentioned that QMB-related cargoes faced shipment difficulties during the disruption. Export enterprises required to organize additional testing. The government required testing of 17 rare earth elements and radioactive elements in certain products, and some enterprises were still awaiting testing results or further clarity from surveyors and customs. Thus, this incident is not a direct export ban on nickel products but a short-term administrative and testing bottleneck arising from unclear regulatory parameters for associated rare earth and radioactive elements. Impact on the Nickel Market: NPI and Other Nickel Product Exports Mainly Affected by Shipment Pace Disruptions For the high-grade NPI and NPI market, the short-term impact was mainly on shipment pace rather than production. Some port cargoes experienced delays due to affected LS reports and customs clearance processes. According to SMM’s latest understanding, LS survey reports were being released in batches, and some high-grade NPI cargoes at ports had begun to be released progressively. As the current disruption primarily occurred in export documentation and customs clearance, the direct impact on NPI production was limited. If LS report issuance and customs clearance continue to normalize, the impact on the overall NPI market is expected to be limited. At this stage, the issue appears more as a short-term export process disruption rather than a confirmed structural restriction on NPI exports. For the MHP market, some cargoes were also affected by the rare earth-related testing requirements. According to market feedback, some MHP shipments faced short-term inability to ship smoothly during the disruption. Similar to NPI, the core issues centered on LS report issuance, testing requirements, and customs clearance, rather than direct restrictions on MHP production. The latest Indonesian government coordination outcome clarified that export procedures should refer to the primary mineral product and its derivative attributes, rather than automatically treating associated rare earth elements or radioactive elements in the product as grounds for export restrictions. Therefore, for MHP, the key lies in whether the product can continue to be classified and exported based on its primary product attributes. Market Feedback and Industry Concerns: Unclear Technical Standards Create Uncertainty for Export Enterprises Market feedback indicated that rare earth-related testing requirements had already caused real disruptions to Indonesia’s mineral product export chain. According to Arif Perdanakusumah, Chairman of FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association), at least 120 bulk commodity vessels were unable to sail or depart due to the need to test for rare earth content. He noted that this situation caused losses not only for enterprises but also for the government, primarily because there were still no clear regulations providing technical guidance on rare earth content thresholds. Industry associations generally understood that this policy was part of the government’s effort to improve mineral governance, but they also stressed that technical implementation still needed re-examination, particularly given that rare earth elements in many mineral products exist only as associated or trace elements rather than primary products. This distinction is especially important for commodities such as nickel, bauxite, tin, and copper, as enterprises' permits and processing designs are primarily centered on the main minerals, and rare earth elements may merely be naturally occurring by-products or associated elements. The bauxite industry also raised similar concerns. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of ABI (Indonesian Bauxite Association), stated that the rare earth issue should be addressed based on its technical nature and handled by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, as the ministry possesses the relevant mining and mineral expertise. He emphasized that the key question is whether rare earth elements are primary products or merely associated elements. If they are primary products, relevant export restrictions could apply; but if they are only associated elements, more detailed technical clarification is needed rather than causing widespread export disruptions. Sari Esayanti, Executive Director of IMA (Indonesian Mining Association), also pointed out that most mining enterprises still center on the primary commodities covered by their permits and existing processing designs. In multiple commodities such as tin, bauxite, nickel, and copper, rare earth elements are typically just associated elements. She also stated that most mining enterprises currently lack adequate facilities or technology to identify, separate, or economically utilize rare earth elements. Thus, new interpretations regarding rare earth element declarations or export obligations have created uncertainty for enterprises. From an industry perspective, the most urgent need currently is technical certainty. Enterprises require clearer parameters, testing methods, and declaration mechanisms so that all exporters, surveyors, and customs authorities can adopt uniform standards. Without consistent technical guidance, even if the current bottleneck gradually eases, similar shipment delays could still recur. Latest Government Developments and Resolution Direction: Primary Product Attributes Become the Core Clarification Point The most important development came from the Indonesian government’s coordination letter dated July 31, 2026. According to the document, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs convened a coordination meeting on July 30 to discuss export obstacles related to the presence of rare earth elements and/or radioactive elements in mineral products and their derivatives. Key points from the government coordination included: Exports of mineral products and their derivatives should still be conducted in accordance with existing trade regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023 on Export Policies and Arrangements and Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023 on Prohibited Export Goods, with reference to subsequent amendments. Relevant regulations should be understood as applying to primary mineral products and their derivatives, rather than automatically applying to associated elements within these products. This is the most critical clarification for high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and other processed mineral products. If radioactive elements are present in the product, as long as they fall under naturally occurring radioactive material, i.e., NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material), exports can still proceed. This helps mitigate the risk of trace radioactive elements automatically causing export obstructions. Export enterprises, surveyors, and customs authorities should refer to the export attributes of the primary mineral product and its derivatives when handling exports. This provides a basis for the gradual resumption of LS report issuance and customs clearance. The Indonesian Attorney General’s Office will concurrently issue a legal opinion, to support the clarification of relevant regulatory interpretations. The government plans to accelerate the revision of relevant regulations, including Minister of Trade Regulation No. 23/2023, Minister of Trade Regulation No. 22/2023, and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 25/2018. Relevant discussions are expected to commence on August 3, 2026, targeting completion of revisions within approximately one week. SMM View: Short-Term Export Disruption, but Medium and Long-Term Signal of Tighter Mineral Oversight Released SMM believes that this rare earth testing incident is a short-term disruption but also an important policy signal. In the short term, as LS reports are progressively issued and customs enforcement parameters become clearer, the impact on NPI and MHP exports is expected to gradually ease. If cargo clearance continues to normalize, the impact on the overall nickel market supply-demand pattern is expected to be limited. However, the incident also demonstrates that Indonesia is strengthening its oversight of critical mineral element content, export documentation, and resource value protection. Even if this round of disruption is resolved relatively quickly, export enterprises may still face stricter testing requirements, clearer declaration obligations, and tighter coordinated supervision among agencies such as surveyors, customs, ESDM, and the Ministry of Trade in the future. Subsequent market focus should include: whether all previously delayed LS reports can be fully released. whether future cargoes will need to undergo complete testing for rare earth elements and radioactive elements. whether the government will clarify specific thresholds for rare earth elements, thorium, uranium, and NORM classification. whether the revised regulations can clearly distinguish between primary export products and associated trace elements. whether high-grade NPI, NPI, MHP, alumina, and tin-related products will face different enforcement standards. Overall, this incident should not be interpreted as Indonesia directly banning NPI or MHP exports, but rather as a process of regulatory clarification under the backdrop of strengthened oversight of rare earth and radioactive elements. If the subsequent implementation details are clarified quickly, the market impact will largely remain at the short-term level; if rules remain unclear, similar shipment delays and administrative friction could still recur.

Trump's Executive Order Tightens Defense Rare Earth Rules, but US Magnet Supply Gap Won't Close by 2027 On July 20, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the Department of Defense to phase out most waivers by January 1, 2027, that have allowed defense contractors to procure samarium cobalt (SmCo) and neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets, tantalum metal and alloys, tungsten metal powder and heavy alloys, and molybdenum from "non-allied foreign countries"—namely China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. From 2027 onward, contractors or subcontractors seeking a waiver must submit a DoD-approved mitigation plan, prove the precise origin of non-compliant materials, demonstrate extensive efforts to source compliant alternatives, and lay out a timeline for removing prohibited materials from their supply chains. In parallel, the order directs the DoD to issue policy guidance within 180 days, pushing contractors to map critical supply chains "from raw materials to end-use products" and to begin qualifying domestic sources of critical minerals, materials, and components. The Real Weight of the Order: Closing Loopholes, Not Breaking New Ground To assess the order's true significance, it must be read against Section 4872 of Title 10 of the US Code, enacted in 2018, which already prohibited the DoD from procuring the above sensitive materials from "adversary countries," with SmCo and NdFeB magnets being the core rare earth items at stake. The problem was that, for years, America's domestic rare earth permanent magnet industry remained too thin to meet defense demand, so the DoD kept issuing case-by-case waivers to keep Chinese imports flowing legally. The actual teeth of Trump's order lie not in the procurement ban itself—the law already mandated that—but in shifting waivers from "default issuance" to "item-by-item strict review," with "inability to build domestic supply" explicitly ruled out as a valid excuse. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro put it bluntly: contractors can no longer claim they had no choice without having tried anything. Symbolically, this marks the Trump administration's push to move "de-China-ification of the defense supply chain" from slogan to enforceable institution. Why the US Is Now "Following China's Playbook" The most telling provision is the 180-day mandate to build a full-chain traceability system—a clear benchmark against China. Since the Rare Earth Regulations took effect on October 1, 2024, China has required mining and smelting-separation enterprises to maintain flow-recording systems. In February 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) circulated the Interim Measures for Rare Earth Product Information Traceability Management for public comment, establishing a rare earth traceability system jointly operated by MIIT, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration, covering the entire chain from production to circulation to use. Enterprises must upload product flow data to the government traceability platform monthly by the 10th of each month. Layered on top of this are the export controls on medium-and-heavy rare earth items implemented since April 2025, the "de minimis traceability" rule requiring licenses for re-exported products containing Chinese rare earth content above certain thresholds, and the whistleblower reward mechanisms rolled out in July 2026. Together, these form a closed-loop regulatory system of "quota—traceability—export review—anti-smuggling. The US requirement to map supply chains "from raw materials to final military products" is, at its core, an acknowledgment that any procurement ban is paper-thin without visibility into downstream flows. China has wielded its traceability system to make its rare earth leverage precise; the US is now forced to learn the same lesson. The Reality for US Defense: The Magnet Gap Cannot Be Closed by 2027 The market consensus that this ban carries far greater symbolic than practical weight holds up—and the root cause is the awkward state of US domestic rare earth magnet capacity. USA Rare Earth's commercial sintering NdFeB production line at Stillwater, Oklahoma, only began commissioning in March 2026. The company expects to reach a run-rate of 600 metric tons per annum (mtpa) by the end of Q4 2026, scaling to a combined 1,200 mtpa across two lines in Q1 2027. Even adding the planned 6,400 mtpa greenfield base at the Bailey Industrial Park in South Carolina, plus supporting projects such as MP Materials' NdPr conversion in Texas and Lynas' heavy rare earth separation plant in Texas, the overall progress remains in the "0-to-1" ramp-up stage. For context, mature magnet makers in Japan—Proterial, Shin-Etsu—each operate single-site capacities in the 2,000–3,000 mtpa range with deep technical moats, while China dominates global rare earth magnet supply and refining capacity. Annual US defense and high-end manufacturing demand for NdFeB magnets far exceeds the sum of all domestically planned capacity, meaning that when the waiver gate closes in 2027, domestic supply will clearly be insufficient to backfill. The heavy rare earth segment is even more precarious. MP Materials' NdPr oxide has yet to be effectively converted into metal and magnets in the short term. Lynas' heavy rare earth separation plant in Texas remains sluggish. Energy Fuels has spent heavily to acquire European magnet veteran VAC to expand heavy-rare-earth-containing magnet capacity, but short-term supply of dysprosium- and terbium-containing high-performance magnets remains inadequate, with feedstock still heavily dependent on Chinese or allied transshipment. Expected Impact on China's Rare Earth Exports For China, this executive order adds further uncertainty to the year-end 2026 extension of export controls and the issuance of general licenses. Considering the market adjustments following the April 2025 tightened controls and the gradual refinement of relevant legal and policy frameworks, the probability of a repeat of the aggressive April 2025 restrictions is relatively low. However, total NdFeB export volumes in 2026 are likely to take a hit. In the medium-to-long term, US "de-China-ification" will advance along two tracks: one is the "mine-to-magnet" vertical integration model exemplified by USA Rare Earth, targeting 10,000 mtpa of NdFeB capacity; the other is capacity expansion at high-end magnet bases in Japan and Europe (VAC, Neo, etc.). Both tracks point to the same reality—the US is spending 5–10 years plugging the magnet gap, but with rigid defense supply chain demand in place, the curve of declining dependence on China during the transition period will be far flatter than the political rhetoric suggests. One easily overlooked detail: the executive order explicitly excludes the US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve (the so-called "Project Vault") and critical minerals produced by projects financially supported by EXIM or DFC from its scope. This effectively leaves a "back door" for the US—strategic stockpiling and federally funded projects can still be handled flexibly. This also confirms from the side that the order's true intent leans more toward "establishing rules and tightening accountability" than "cutting off supply tomorrow." Final Assessment Placed in the broader context of the US-China rare earth contest, this executive order is neither the decisive "decoupling" strike nor a merely symbolic political gesture. It is an act of institutional alignment —the US has realized that to hold equivalent leverage in the rare earth game, it must first build supply chain visibility on par with China's. But institutions can be signed overnight; capacity has to be ramped up ton by ton.

The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to present China's foreign trade performance since the start of this year. It was introduced that in H1, China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth and maintained a good momentum. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts totaled 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6%. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons have been quickly iterating, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1 of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Specifically, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, outpacing exports by 8.7 percentage points. In June, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, maintaining growth for 17 consecutive months. Export side, the product structure further improved. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1%, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39%. Import side, in H1, China's import growth outpaced exports by 8.7 percentage points, promoting balanced development of imports and exports. Within this, imports rose for energy and other bulk commodities (3.4%), mechanical and electrical products (28%), and agricultural products (8.6%). Trading partner side, China's diversified markets continued to consolidate. In H1, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road partner countries totaled 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports to neighboring countries reached 9.44 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. Trade with Latin America, Africa, and the EU expanded by 16.2%, 19.6%, and 10.2%, respectively. Business entity side, all types of business entities in China maintained good growth momentum. Imports and exports by private enterprises reached 14.53 trillion yuan, up 17%, accounting for 57% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports by foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises grew by 17.1% and 16.8%, respectively. Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, introduced at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office: Overall, China's foreign trade achieved remarkable results in H1. Meanwhile, the current external environment remains complex and volatile. The World Bank believes that the global economy is facing pressures from rising energy prices, intensifying inflationary pressure, and expectations of monetary policy tightening, leading to a weakening growth outlook. IMF forecast data shows that world economic growth is expected to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year, and the growth rate of goods and services trade volume is also expected to slow from 5% last year to 3.5% this year. In H2, China’s foreign trade will face some pressure, but with strong innovation momentum, robust market vitality, and a high level of openness, the fundamentals of foreign trade will remain solid, and the positive momentum in foreign trade development is expected to continue. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM compiled the import and export situation of selected products in the metals industry, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in June 2026 5,104.8 mt, down 34.1% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 30,482.8 mt, down 6.4% YoY vs January to June 2025. Steel exports in June 2026 10.32 million mt, up 6.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 5,487.4 mt, YoY down 5.6 % vs January to June 2025. Unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports in June 2026 711,000 mt, up 45.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 3.396 million mt, up 16.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Imports: Iron ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 112.689 million mt, up 6.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 628.868 million mt, up 6.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Copper ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 2.335 10kt, down 0.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 14.609 10kt, down 0.9% YoY vs January to June 2025 . Coal and lignite imports in June 2026 42.779 10kt, up 29.5% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 225.4 million mt, up 1.7% YoY vs January to June 2025 . In June 2026, rare earth imports reached 6,261.5 mt, down 25.3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 53,886.6 mt, down 6.1% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, steel imports reached 441,000 mt, down 6.2% YoY from June 2025. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis reached 478,000 mt, up 3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.491 million mt, down 5.3 % YoY from January-June 2025.

China’s rare earth exports in H1 2026 operated under a temporary regulatory pause, set to expire on November 10. This resulted in a bifurcated market: light rare earths traded efficiently with high volumes, while heavy rare earths remained constrained, creating significant price premiums.

On June 22, China’s MOFCOM imposed export controls on 10 US entities, including rare earth giants MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, retaliating against the US expansion of its "Chinese Military Companies List" on June 8. While largely symbolic for China's magnet exports, the move targets the Achilles' heel of US supply chain autonomy, threatening higher costs and delays for American defense and rare earth projects.