SMM May 25 News: Driven by rising market expectations for coal policy changes and concerns over tightening supply, bullish sentiment was released in a concentrated manner. Coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit up on May 25 and remained locked at the limit. As of the close of the daytime session on May 25, the most-traded coking coal and coke futures contracts were locked at the daily limit with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. The limit-up moves in coking coal and coke lifted the broader ferrous metals and related raw material sectors, with the ferrosilicon continuous most-traded contract rising 3.97% on May 25. Supported by the strengthening prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, magnesium ingot prices moved higher, with magnesium ingots gaining over 2% in a single day on May 25. Bullish sentiment in the market had already begun to emerge last Sunday. Rising Coal and Ferrosilicon Prices Highlight Cost Support for Magnesium Ingots Spot market: Primary magnesium smelting is highly dependent on raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, with a clear cost transmission chain. As coal prices continued to rise, cost pressure on upstream magnesium enterprises increased significantly. Some upstream enterprises reported that they had already raised their quotations to 16,700 yuan/mt last Sunday. On May 25, although morning inquiries were lukewarm, supported by the rigid cost underpinning from rising raw material prices, most producers still held firm at 16,700 yuan/mt, with a strong willingness to hold prices firm. By region, magnesium ingot prices across China were generally raised by 350 yuan/mt. Mainstream quotations for magnesium ingots (9990) in Fugu, Shenmu, and Inner Mongolia were 16,700 yuan/mt, while quotations in Wenxi were 16,900 yuan/mt. Currently, relevant policies for the coal mine market have not yet been officially implemented. The industry as a whole maintains a cautious wait-and-see stance, and the pace and impact of subsequent policy implementation deserve close attention. Outlook Looking at this round of magnesium price increases, the core driving factor was the rise in raw material costs such as coal and ferrosilicon, representing a typical cost-push price increase rather than one driven by improvements in supply-demand fundamentals. From the current magnesium market fundamentals perspective, the overall oversupply pattern has not shown significant improvement. Although downstream demand demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, end-use demand showed no notable incremental growth, while supply within the market also showed no obvious contraction, leaving fundamentals lacking strong upward support. Overall, the short-term raw material price increases effectively underpinned magnesium prices, supporting magnesium prices to hold up well. However, constrained by the weak supply-demand pattern, the rebound room for magnesium prices in this round is relatively limited. Going forward, it is essential to continue closely monitoring price fluctuations in coal and ferrosilicon raw materials and the implementation of coal mine-related policies, while paying close attention to the release of downstream demand and changes in market supply, in order to assess the pace and upside room for subsequent magnesium price movements. Recommended Reading:

[SMM Steel] The UK is seeking exemptions from the EU’s upcoming steel import restrictions as London and Brussels continue post-Brexit trade negotiations. The EU plans to reduce tariff-free steel quotas and raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50%, while the UK is also preparing similar measures, including a 60% reduction in tariff-free quotas and 50% tariffs above quota limits. UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant said restrictive measures between the UK and EU would be counterproductive, arguing that global overcapacity, particularly from China, remains the core issue affecting European steel markets.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Some steel mills raised wet-quenched coke prices by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching prices by 55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on May 26, 2026. Supply side, coke producers remained profitable with moderate production enthusiasm, and coke production stayed relatively stable. Coke producers actively pushed shipments, keeping their own coke inventory at reasonable levels. Demand side, steel mill blast furnace daily average hot metal production fluctuated at highs, providing strong rigid demand support for coke. However, under the influence of the traditional off-season, steel mills' restocking pace slowed down somewhat. In summary, mine accidents have increased coking costs, and the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, with the fourth round of coke price increases set to be implemented soon.

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Market Remained Stable with a Wait-and-See Attitude, Trading Stayed Mediocre] May 22, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market experienced minor fluctuations...

SMM May 25 reported: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract traded in a range, with the overall price center moving lower compared to the previous trading day. Some buyers had strong bullish sentiment, and as the impact of tax invoice reductions gradually eased, overall buying sentiment in the market improved somewhat, while some sellers held prices firm. The mainstream spot quotation in the market was around SMMA00 average to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.06, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.06 MoM. Recently, the price spread between central China and Shanghai was relatively small and higher than long-term contract prices. Downstream processing enterprises in the central China market had low buying sentiment and preferred long-term contract settlement, with overall market transactions being sluggish. Additionally, aluminum futures prices surged at the opening, and suppliers offered lower prices with weak willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was between a premium of 20 yuan and a discount of 30 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.84, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.26, down 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, today the aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas rose 9,500 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.

Platinum prices were in the doldrums today. Precious metals futures fluctuated around expectations of Voss's inauguration and a US-Iran ceasefire. In the morning session, GFEX PT2606 closed at 485.65 yuan/gram, down slightly by 0.20%, and the most-traded PT2608 contract closed at 489.5 yuan/gram, down 0.10%. The SGE Pt9995 best offer price remained persistently inverted against GFEX PT2606, with the price spread maintained at around 5-10 yuan/gram. Spot side, mainstream quotations for spot platinum premiums were basically flat compared to the previous trading day. In the morning session, traders' mainstream quotations were at parity to a discount of 2 yuan/gram against GFEX PT2606. Transaction side, according to SMM, in the morning session suppliers found it difficult to transact at parity to a discount of 1 yuan/gram against the most-traded GFEX platinum contract. Downstream buyers purchased on rigid demand with price negotiations, and some suppliers reported small volumes transacted at a discount of 2 yuan/gram for spot cargo. Most suppliers had limited room for negotiation due to the approaching delivery period, and registered warrants were generally offered at relatively high shipments prices. Overall, the spot platinum market saw subdued consumption today.

[SMM Daily Comment: Bullish and Bearish Factors Pulling Against Each Other, Market Transactions Centered Around Average Prices] May 25 — The SMM upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 3.12, flat MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2, down 0.05 MoM.

[SMM Daily Comment: Silver Prices Rebounded Slightly, Month-End Trading Sluggish] SMM reported on May 25 that easing macro sentiment drove silver prices to rebound, spot discounts narrowed, but month-end buying and selling were inactive, and trading remained sluggish.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: China's Tin Market Overall Shows a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand; Consumption End Has Limited Acceptance of High Prices]

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied, touching a low of $1,995/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented." US Fed Governor Waller stated that the current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the near term, and that interest rate hikes would be needed if inflation expectations become unanchored. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett noted that a potential US-Iran deal could lead to a significant drop in energy prices and create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. China's Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to April, national foreign investment absorption totaled 287.69 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY. The CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund business activities. The PBOC announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a tenor of one year. Hong Kong's stock market was closed on Monday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. : In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, warrant quotations remained scarce, and suppliers mainly traded cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped along with the market. However, some smelters held prices firm on shipments due to limited inventory. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Additionally, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead losses were repaired, and smelter shipment sentiment improved. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few premiums of 50 yuan/mt still available. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, especially after lead prices rose, with more downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and declining inquiry enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. Inventory: On May 22, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 286,475 mt. As of May 21, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 73,300 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from May 14. Lead price forecast for today: Lower lead futures prices generated some stocking demand from downstream buyers on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after testing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is expected to put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.