This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. On the first day after the holiday resumption, due to the impact of overseas risk events during the long holiday—primarily the US's plan to impose new tariffs on approximately six industries (including large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment) and the escalation of US-Iran tensions—overall sentiment fluctuated significantly, and ferrous futures also touched recent lows. Mid-week, with some steel mills in the Tangshan area receiving notifications for voluntary emission reductions during the Two Sessions, coupled with Shanghai's adjustment of housing purchase restrictions and rumors of favorable real estate policies during the Two Sessions, futures rebounded from lows, showing significant sector resonance effects. However, as the weekend approached, no new favorable policies emerged, and futures retreated once again.

To boost market vitality, Guangzhou has taken a crucial step in optimizing its real estate policies. On June 13, Guangzhou released the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption (Draft for Public Comment)", seeking public feedback. The plan explicitly proposes to "systematically reduce consumption restrictions, optimize real estate policies, comprehensively lift purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lower down payment ratios and interest rates for loans." This draft for public comment views real estate consumption as a "key link" in boosting the overall vitality of the consumer market. Industry analysts generally believe that the implementation of this series of policies will effectively stimulate Guangzhou's property market and accelerate the process of stabilizing housing prices. More critically, Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that Guangzhou, as a first-tier city, sending a comprehensive and clear signal of policy easing, indicates an increased likelihood of further policy relaxation in first-tier cities. Clear Signal of Comprehensive Easing "This move marks Guangzhou as potentially the first first-tier city in the country to comprehensively lift the 'four restrictions'—purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price caps, and loan restrictions," Zhang Bo told reporters. In fact, Guangzhou had already laid the groundwork for easing real estate policies. Chen Xueqiang, Research Director of the South China Branch of the China Index Academy, said in an interview with reporters that the comprehensive lifting of sales and purchase restrictions mentioned in this "Draft for Public Comment" had already been fully implemented in Guangzhou in May and September 2024, respectively. Although no official document had been previously issued regarding the lifting of price caps, the policy had already been in practice, meaning developers still needed to register prices, but the government no longer provided guidance prices. Regarding credit policies, Chen Xueqiang added that the current down payment ratios for first-time and second-time commercial loans in Guangzhou are both 15%, with the first-time commercial loan interest rate at 3% and the housing provident fund interest rate at 2.6%, which are already at relatively low levels. There is room for further reductions in the down payment ratios for housing provident fund loans in the future. From the perspective of Guangzhou's own real estate market situation, policy adjustments are also very necessary. According to Zhang Bo, based on housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Guangzhou is a first-tier city facing relatively significant downward pressure on housing prices, with both the new and second-hand housing markets remaining in a downward trend this year. Although Anjuke's online data shows that the overall second-hand listing prices stabilized in June, price declines were more pronounced in peripheral areas such as Baiyun, Panyu, Nansha, and Zengcheng. "Therefore, by comprehensively lifting purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for loans, the aim is to eliminate administrative intervention, allow the market to return to supply and demand-driven dynamics, boost property transactions, and accelerate the stabilization of housing prices."Zhang Bo said. Chen Xueqiang also believes that the draft for public comments explicitly expands the scope of cancellation to include restrictions on resale and price caps, and emphasizes reducing down payment ratios and interest rates. This is a comprehensive confirmation of the policies already implemented, sending a strong signal of easing to the market. Several analysts have pointed out that among first-tier cities, Guangzhou has frequently taken the lead in introducing easing measures in the past, and the new policies in Guangzhou this time may continue to trigger a chain reaction, with other first-tier cities potentially following suit in relaxing their policy restrictions. Multi-dimensional Efforts to Activate Demand In addition to easing core restrictive measures, Guangzhou's current plan also deploys measures from multiple angles, aiming to activate latent demand and comprehensively meet housing consumption needs. The plan explicitly proposes to steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities, with plans to initiate renovation of over 150 old residential communities and upgrade over 9,000 old residential elevators by 2025, achieving fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village renovation. "Such quantitative targets demonstrate Guangzhou's emphasis on urban renewal and its determination for sustained investment," Zhang Bo analyzed. As a core supporting measure for optimizing Guangzhou's real estate policies, the renovation of old residential communities has been deeply advanced in recent years, leading the nation. Through institutional innovation, diverse participation, and precise implementation, it has achieved a positive interaction between improving people's livelihoods and urban development. Meanwhile, Yan Yuejin emphasized that urban village renovation will effectively promote the release of latent home-buying or housing demand. The plan also proposes to "advance the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing." In fact, Guangzhou has been at the forefront nationwide in terms of special bond acquisitions and storage. Yan Yuejin believes that the mention of this in the current plan indicates that special loans will continue to play a significant role in the subsequent acquisition of existing commercial housing for resettlement purposes. Furthermore, the plan requires the continuous optimization of housing provident fund usage policies, supporting depositors in applying for individual housing loans from the housing provident fund while withdrawing funds from it to pay for home down payments, and further optimizing policy measures for rent extraction. Industry insiders believe that through the comprehensive withdrawal of restrictive policies, the continuous optimization of credit policies, as well as a stimulus policy package of supporting measures including urban village renovation, utilization of existing housing, and housing provident fund support, Guangzhou is striving to unblock the housing consumption chain and inject confidence into the market. If the policies are smoothly implemented, Guangzhou will not only become the first first-tier city to bid farewell to the era of "four restrictions" (restrictions on purchases, sales, prices, and loans), but it will also provide a reference sample for other major cities.

The "Implementation Plan for Guangzhou's Special Action to Boost Consumption (Draft for Public Comments)" is open for public comments. It mentions that consumption restrictions will be systematically reduced. Real estate policies will be optimized, with the complete abolition of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, as well as a reduction in the down payment ratio and interest rates for loans. This will better meet housing consumption demands.

SMM, June 13: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell, with SHFE copper down 0.44%, SHFE aluminum up 0.54%, SHFE zinc down 0.32%, SHFE lead up 0.44%, SHFE tin down 0.29%, and SHFE nickel down 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum closed flat at 19,425 yuan/mt, and the most-traded continuous futures contract for alumina closed flat at 2,892 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate fell 0.59%, silicon metal fell 1.07%, and polysilicon fell 0.43%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.43%, rebar down 0.8%, and HRC down 0.74%. Stainless steel rose 0.76%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.16%, and coke rose 1.72%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals mostly fell, with LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME lead slightly down, and LME nickel slightly up. LME copper fell 0.59%, and LME tin fell 0.21%. In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 1.4%, and COMEX silver rose 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.26%, and SHFE silver rose 0.08%. Gold prices climbed and were on track for a weekly gain, as tensions in the Middle East spurred demand for safe-haven assets, while a weaker US dollar and expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the US Fed also supported gold prices. (Webstock Inc.) As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping futures rose 8.07% to 2,175.0. As of 11:42 a.m. on June 13, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 13 Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, mainstream transactions for #0 zinc ingots were concluded at 22,190-22,390 yuan/mt, with Zijin transactions at 22,270-22,420 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot transactions at around 21,850-21,980 yuan/mt. Huludao reported prices at 25,670 yuan/mt. The premium for ordinary #0 zinc against the 2507 contract was around 180-300 yuan/mt, and the premium for Zijin against the 2507 contract was around 300-330 yuan/mt. The Tianjin market was trading at a discount of around 30 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestically: The central bank conducted 202.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection was 67.5 billion yuan. [Guangzhou: Optimizing Real Estate Policies by Fully Lifting Purchase Restrictions, Sales Restrictions, Price Caps, and Reducing Loan Down Payment Ratios and Interest Rates] The "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou (Draft for Public Comment)" is open for public comment. It mentions the orderly reduction of consumption restrictions. We will optimize real estate policies by fully lifting restrictions on home purchases, sales, and pricing, and reducing down payment ratios and interest rates for loans. This will better meet housing consumption demands. We will steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities. In 2025, we plan to initiate the renovation of over 150 old residential communities, replace over 9,000 old elevators in residential buildings, and complete fixed asset investments of RMB 100 billion in urban village renovation projects. We will promote the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing. We will continue to optimize the policies governing the use of housing provident funds, allowing contributors to apply for individual housing loans from their housing provident funds while withdrawing funds to pay for down payments on home purchases. We will further refine policies and measures for withdrawing funds from housing provident funds for rental payments. ► On June 13, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at RMB 7.1772 per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose by 0.37% to 98.22. The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained at an eight-month high last week, indicating a softening labour market. Meanwhile, the slowdown in domestic demand in the US helped limit the increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of continuing jobless claims exceeded expectations, rising to 1.956 million, the highest level in nearly four years. Meanwhile, the US PPI for May rose by 2.6% YoY, in line with expectations, compared to a 2.5% increase in April. Despite this, the rise in "core" PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and fuel categories and is closely watched by the market, slowed from the previous month. Traders now expect the US Fed to cut interest rates by 55 basis points before the end of the year, starting in September rather than the previously anticipated October. Data: Today, data to be released include China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for May (the exact time between June 13 and June 17 is yet to be determined), China's aggregate social financing for the year to date as of May, China's new RMB loans for the year to date as of May, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June in the US, the eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for April, the eurozone's total reserve assets for May, the final reading of Germany's annual CPI rate for May, Canada's monthly manufacturing sales growth rate for April, and Canada's monthly growth rate of new manufacturing orders for April. In addition, the National Energy Administration typically releases data on total electricity consumption around the 15th of each month. Crude Oil: Crude oil futures surged significantly, with US crude oil prices briefly rising over 13% to hit a new high in more than four months during trading, and Brent crude oil also reaching a new high in over four months. As of 11:42, US crude oil was up 8.99%, and Brent crude oil was up 8.91%. The sharp increase in oil prices was driven by market concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the escalation of the situation has dealt a blow to risk sentiment in the financial markets. "As we await further news and Iran's potential response, we may see a further deterioration in risk sentiment, with traders reducing their risk positions ahead of the weekend." (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: ► The price spread between futures contracts continues to widen, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players. Suppliers can only lower prices to sell their goods. [SMM South China Spot Copper] ► Tianjin Zinc: Downstream demand is mainly for restocking based on immediate needs, with premiums holding steady. [SMM Midday Review] ► [SMM Brief Analysis] The off-season effect is prominent, with iron ore prices fluctuating rangebound in a weak trend. Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view.

【Guangdong: Guangzhou and Shenzhen Encouraged to Further Ease Vehicle Purchase Restrictions】The General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice on May 7, calling for a reduction in consumption restrictions. Cities should be guided to comprehensively review and adjust existing restrictive measures in property purchase, transfer, credit, and pricing based on local conditions to stabilise the real estate market. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are encouraged to further ease vehicle purchase restrictions, increase Car purchase quota issuance, and promote a shift from purchase - oriented to usage - oriented vehicle management.

The People's Bank of China will strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control, and introduce a package of monetary policy measures, mainly consisting of three categories and ten policies.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Tariff Agreement With Mexico Finalized, SHFE Aluminum Weakens Due to Alumina Drag] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after declining, mainly supported by short-term export demand and stockpiling for delivery. However, overseas prices have declined, squeezing export profit margins. The market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online, reinforcing the expectation of a looser alumina supply and demand balance. Medium and long-term prices still face pressure. Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with short-term fluctuations likely to continue. Key areas to monitor include export profit and loss dynamics and changes in bauxite cost support. Driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations, SHFE aluminum remains more likely to rise than fall. However, concerns over escalating overseas trade frictions warrant close attention to policy expectations from the Two Sessions. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high-level upward fluctuation trend.

[SMM Zinc Annual Review: Zinc Futures and Spot Prices Rose Over 18% in 2024, Supply-Demand Imbalance Remains Prominent—Will It Improve in 2025?] Unlike the low-level fluctuations of zinc prices in 2023, zinc prices fluctuated upward in 2024, driven by favourable macro front and a supply-demand mismatch in zinc ore. As of the closing price on December 31, 2024, zinc prices reached 25,460 yuan/mt, marking an annual increase of 18.36%. A review of the entire year's zinc price trends also reveals that, in 2024, multiple favourable macro factors and a tight supply pattern on the supply side of zinc...

In July, China's auto market entered its traditional off-season, with some car manufacturers taking high-temperature breaks, leading to a slowdown in production and sales.

SHFE and LME copper prices, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic factors and the COMEX copper short squeeze, continued to rise in May. However, when copper prices climbed to record highs, copper cathode consumption faced immense pressure.