In Q1 2026, China's secondary lead market navigated through turbulence amid holiday effects and industry difficulties. Following a sharp production decline of over 140,000 mt in February, the market saw a post-holiday recovery rebound in March, but the recovery fell short of expectations, with the industry mired in the dual constraints of "profit pressure and tight raw material supply." Looking ahead to April, although large smelters are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner……

[SMM Nickel Flash News] Based on the cash cost of high-grade NPI calculated using nickel ore prices from 25 days earlier, profits at high-grade NPI smelters came under pressure during the week, with the sector as a whole remaining in a state of losses or marginal profitability. It is expected that next week, prices of auxiliary materials on the raw material side may remain flat, while the decline in nickel ore prices will likely be limited. High-grade NPI prices will still be under pressure amid back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, and smelter profits will be unlikely to see any significant improvement.

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[SMM Weekly Survey of the Aluminum Downstream Sector: Downstream Aluminum Operating Rate Continued to Rebound to 61.9%, with High Prices Suppressing the Peak "Golden March" Season] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rose 2.4 percentage points MoM to 61.9%, overall extending the post-holiday recovery trend, with all segments rebounding MoM, and the industry as a whole entering a normal production pace.

SMM, February 28 news： In February 2026, China's secondary lead market was squeezed by three factors—the holiday effect, high costs, and weak demand—leading to a significant pullback in production as expected, with industry operations characterized by "weak supply and demand and profit margins under pressure." Data showed that secondary lead production in February 2026 fell as expected by 140,000 mt, plunging 40.38% MoM and dropping 2.19% YoY; secondary refined lead output decreased 45.18% MoM and declined 11.36% YoY. In terms of the causes of production cuts, the primary factors were fewer calendar days in the month combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to widespread shutdowns or production cuts at mainstream secondary lead smelters across the country. Worker departures for the holiday pushed operating rates to low levels, with particularly sharp declines in core production areas such as Jiangsu and Henan due to delayed worker returns and logistics constraints. Pressure on the cost side further exacerbated the scale of production cuts: before the holiday, scrap battery prices remained high due to recyclers' reluctance to sell, pushing up secondary lead smelting costs, while lead prices continued to trend weakly during the same period, causing widespread losses among secondary lead enterprises. Theoretical comprehensive profit/loss margins for large-scale producers were in negative territory, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing even more severe losses. Weakness on the demand side created a dual suppression: downstream battery producers entered the holiday early, causing lead ingot purchase willingness to hit rock bottom, while smelters' finished product inventories continued to accumulate, further dampening production enthusiasm among enterprises and ultimately leading to a sharp contraction in secondary lead output in February. Looking ahead to March, China's secondary lead market is expected to see a clear corrective rebound, with production forecast to increase by about 70,000 mt compared to February. The core driver of this trend is the comprehensive resumption of work and production across the industry chain after the holiday. With workers returning in concentration after the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters will enter a period of concentrated production resumptions, and some enterprises have indicated that they can resume operating at full capacity by mid-March. Gradual recovery in downstream demand will provide solid support for the production rebound: battery producers are resuming work successively, pre-holiday accumulated lead ingot inventories are entering a digestion cycle, and purchase willingness is expected to continue improving. Meanwhile, some secondary lead enterprises need to ramp up production to fulfill long-term contract delivery obligations, further driving up operating rates. On the raw material side, the scrap battery recycling market is gradually recovering after the holiday, and smelters' raw material inventories are expected to be replenished, easing supply constraints. Although enterprises still face certain profit pressures, with the combined effects of demand recovery, order support, and inventory digestion, production enthusiasm in the secondary lead industry is expected to improve significantly. Output in March is likely to achieve a substantive rebound, and industry operations will gradually return to normal.

SMM February 27: After the holiday, downstream battery enterprises resumed work at a slow pace, with weak purchase willingness for lead ingots, leading to a sluggish lead price trend. Secondary lead enterprises were under pressure and incurred losses, with low enthusiasm for spot order shipments and limited offers. The current ex-factory price was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. Although downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, they mainly focused on digesting pre-holiday inventory, and lead ingot procurement was expected to see limited improvement next week. Supported by the steady to rising scrap battery prices, secondary lead production costs remained high while ex-factory prices were weak, resulting in sustained losses for smelters. As of February 27, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large enterprises was -344 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises was -558 yuan/mt (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony), indicating significant profit pressure across the industry. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices

Ahead of Q2, the tensions across China’s NEV supply chain had already become increasingly visible in February and March. On the one hand, battery output remained resilient, supported by OEM volume targets and the new-model cycle;

[January Electrolyte Supply and Demand Contracted, Cost Lag Transmission Led to a Slight Price Rise] In January, the electrolyte market exhibited a pattern of simultaneous contraction on both the supply and demand sides, with prices rising slightly against the trend. This was primarily influenced by factors such as structural differentiation in end-use demand, lagged transmission of raw material costs, and enterprises' need to restore profits.

The record of investor relations activities of Yunnan Copper from June 11 to June 13, 2025, recently released by Yunnan Copper, shows: Regarding the company's basic information, Yunnan Copper introduced: Yunnan Copper was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1998. Its main businesses cover copper exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, extraction and processing of precious metals and minor metals, sulfur chemical industry, and trade. It is an important production site for copper, gold, silver, and sulfur chemicals in China. Among them, the capacity for copper cathode is 1.4 million mt. The company is the only publicly listed firm in the copper industry of Chalco and China Copper. In Q1 2025, the company produced 348,900 mt of copper cathode, up 48.15% YoY; 5.80 mt of gold, up 95.63% YoY; 128.48 mt of silver, up 54.31% YoY; 1.3872 million mt of sulphuric acid, up 23.61% YoY; and 13,900 mt of copper in copper concentrates, down 15% YoY. At the end of Q1 2025, the company's total assets were 49.256 billion yuan, with an asset-liability ratio of 62.39%. It achieved an operating revenue of 37.754 billion yuan, up 19.71% YoY; a total profit of 922 million yuan, up 14.11% YoY; a net profit attributable to publicly listed firms of 560 million yuan, up 23.97% YoY; and a basic earnings per share of 0.2793 yuan, up 23.97% YoY. II. Q&A Session 1. In the face of the sluggish processing fee situation this year, what measures has the company taken to respond? Yunnan Copper stated: On the one hand, the company has strategically planned for "digital and intelligent transformation, expanding resources, refining mines, optimizing smelting, solidifying secondary (copper), and meticulously managing minor (metals)", and increased the extraction of urban mines and minor metals. On the other hand, in 2025, the company focuses on the key work of extreme operation, striving to promote high-quality development of the company, and advancing cost reduction with iron determination. After several years of cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement, the costs of the company's main products have certain competitiveness. In addition, the company has increased the profit contribution of by-products such as sulphuric acid, molybdenum, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium to enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness. 2. What is the expected impact of the current smelting processing fees on the company's profits? Yunnan Copper stated: Since this year, long-term contracts and spot TC have seen significant declines compared to last year. The company has offset the adverse impact of the decline in processing fees through measures such as cost reduction, expanding procurement channels, and increasing direct supply of ore from mines. In addition, the company focuses on the layout of secondary copper and minor metals, while continuing to increase the profit contribution of by-products such as sulphuric acid, molybdenum, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium to offset the profit pressure caused by the decline in processing fees. 3. What is the approximate sales volume and price of sulphuric acid for the company this year? Yunnan Copper Science & Technology Development Co., Ltd. stated: Sulphuric acid is a by-product of the company's copper smelting process, and its price varies due to regional factors. In Q1 this year, the average price of sulphuric acid in major regions increased significantly YoY. The company actively seized market opportunities, contributing positively to its performance. 4. What efforts has the company made in resource acquisition? Yunnan Copper Science & Technology Development Co., Ltd. stated: The company attaches great importance to the replacement of mine resources and has increased capital investment to carry out comprehensive geological studies of various mining areas and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines. In 2024, the company invested 65 million yuan in exploration activities and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines, adding 91,800 mt of inferred and above copper resource metal content, achieving the annual target and realizing annual reserve increases greater than mine output consumption for four consecutive years. In addition, on the basis of managing existing mines and smelters well, the company actively focuses on high-quality copper resource projects. 5. The company announced its intention to issue shares to purchase a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining held by Yunnan Copper Group. What is the current progress, and what advantages will it bring to the company? Yunnan Copper Science & Technology Development Co., Ltd. stated: On May 13, 2025, the company issued the "Announcement on Suspension of Trading for the Purpose of Planning to Issue Shares to Purchase Assets and Raise Supporting Funds", indicating that the company is planning to issue shares to purchase a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. held by Yunnan Copper (Group) Co., Ltd. and raise supporting funds. Currently, the company and relevant parties are actively promoting various aspects of this transaction. Liangshan Mining is a copper resource production and smelting enterprise spanning the copper mining, beneficiation, and smelting industries, covering copper, iron, and sulphuric acid products. Liangshan Mining owns high-quality copper resources such as the Lala Copper Mine and Hongnipo Copper Mine, currently capable of producing approximately 13,000 mt of copper concentrates, 119,000 mt of copper anodes, and 400,000 mt of industrial sulphuric acid annually. Liangshan Mining is one of the core copper resource production and smelting bases under China Copper Corporation. As of the end of March 2025, the high-quality copper mine resources it holds, including the Hongnipo Copper Mine, Lala Copper Mine, and Hailin Copper Mine, have a copper metal reserve of 779,700 mt, with an average copper grade of 1.16%, higher than the current average copper grade of 0.38% at Yunnan Copper Science & Technology Development Co., Ltd. In 2024, it successfully bid for and obtained the exploration rights to the Hailin Copper Mine in Huili City, Sichuan Province, with a mining area of 48.34 square kilometers, further enhancing the resource reserve potential of Liangshan Mining. In addition, the copper mining costs of the mines owned by Liangshan Mining are relatively low, demonstrating good cost competitiveness. The sulphuric acid sales prices in south-west China, where Liangshan Mining is located, are also relatively favorable. This time, the company intends to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining held by its controlling shareholder, Yunnan Copper Group, which can further resolve horizontal competition and ensure the faithful implementation of relevant commitments. Meanwhile, Liangshan Mining boasts significant resource advantages and a solid profitability foundation, with a return on net assets higher than the industry average. Upon completion of the Hongnipo Copper Mine, it will reach a medium-to-large scale among copper mines, further enhancing its profitability. After the injection of Liangshan Mining into Yunnan Copper, it can effectively increase the publicly listed firm's equity copper resource reserves, enhance the overall asset and profit scale as well as the industry position of the publicly listed firm, facilitate the full play of business synergies by the publicly listed firm, strengthen the reserve of high-quality resources and capacity layout, enhance comprehensive strength and core competitiveness, and promote the high-quality development of the publicly listed firm. In addition, this acquisition is a specific measure taken by the company to implement the relevant opinions of the SASAC of the State Council on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed firms controlled by central state-owned enterprises, and to carry out M&A and restructuring activities that are conducive to enhancing the investment value of listed firms, which is conducive to safeguarding the rights and interests of the listed firm and all its shareholders. 6. What is the construction status of the Hongnipo Project of Liangshan Mining? Yunnan Copper stated: The Hongnipo Copper Mine is currently in the construction phase. The total identified ore reserves amount to 41.606 million mt, with an average copper grade of 1.42% and a copper metal content of 592,900 mt. The company will closely monitor the project's construction progress and strictly fulfill its information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant regulations such as the "SZSE Listing Rules". Please stay tuned for the company's announcements. According to the record of Yunnan Copper's investor relations activities on March 26, 2025 (Interpretation Meeting Series I for the 2024 Annual Report) previously announced by Yunnan Copper: In 2024, Yunnan Copper adhered to the guidance of Party building, continued to strive and forge ahead, comprehensively implemented the decisions and deployments of the company's Party committee and board of directors, overcame unfavourable factors such as a significant decline in TC and the shutdown of the old facilities of Xinan Copper, and maintained a stable operating situation. The company produced 1.206 million mt of copper cathode, 12.71 mt of gold, 348.99 mt of silver, and 4.8286 million mt of sulphuric acid throughout the year. As of year-end 2024, its total assets amounted to 43.557 billion yuan, with an asset-liability ratio of 57.66%. It achieved operating revenue of 178.012 billion yuan, total profit of 2.316 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the publicly listed firm of 1.265 billion yuan, and basic earnings per share of 0.6312 yuan. The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 2.4 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, without converting capital reserves into share capital. What is the construction progress of the relocation project of the Xinan Copper Branch previously announced by the company? Yunnan Copper previously responded during an institutional survey: The electrolysis system of the upgrade and renovation project for the relocation of Xinan Copper was commissioned with load at the end of June 2024, and the pyrometallurgy system entered the load commissioning phase in mid-October 2024, successfully producing copper anodes. As of now, the overall project for the relocation and upgrade of Xinan Copper has been fully completed and is currently in the load commissioning phase. This project is conducive to optimizing the company's smelting layout and production processes, achieving efficient comprehensive utilisation of resources, reducing production costs, and enhancing the company's overall competitiveness, aligning with the company's development needs for green, low-carbon, large-scale, short-process, low-cost, and digital intelligence. When asked about the company's progress in resource acquisition in 2024, Yunnan Copper previously responded during an institutional survey: The company attaches great importance to the replacement of mine resources, increasing capital investment to carry out comprehensive geological studies of various mining areas and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines. In 2024, the company invested 65 million yuan in exploration, conducting multiple mineral exploration activities and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines, adding 91,800 mt of inferred and above copper metal resources, achieving the annual target, and achieving annual reserve increases greater than mine production and consumption for four consecutive years. As of the end of 2024, the company held 964 million mt of copper ore resources, with a copper metal content of 3.6509 million mt and an average copper grade of 0.38%. Among them, Diqing Nonferrous held 846 million mt of copper ore resources, with a copper metal content of 2.8037 million mt and an average copper grade of 0.33%. When analyzing the company's core competitiveness, Yunnan Copper mentioned that its good resource reserves are one of its core competitiveness factors: The company attaches great importance to the replacement of mine resources, increasing capital investment to carry out comprehensive geological studies of various mining areas and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines. The company's main mines, including the Pulang Copper Mine, Dahongshan Copper Mine, and Yangla Copper Mine, are mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Metallogenic Belt, with favourable metallogenic geological conditions and potential for further prospecting. In 2024, the company invested 65 million yuan in exploration, conducting multiple mineral exploration activities and exploration work in the deep and peripheral parts of mines, adding 91,800 mt of inferred and above copper metal resources, achieving the annual target, and achieving annual reserve increases greater than mine production and consumption for four consecutive years. As of the end of 2024, the company held 964 million mt of copper ore resources, with a copper metal content of 3.6509 million mt and an average copper grade of 0.38%. Among them, Diqing Nonferrous held 846 million mt of copper ore resources, with a copper metal content of 2.8037 million mt and an average copper grade of 0.33%. The 2025 financial budget plan disclosed by Yunnan Copper in its 2024 annual report indicates the following production plans for the company's main products in 2025: The company expects to produce 54,600 mt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.52 million mt of copper cathode, 16 mt of gold, 680 mt of silver, and 5.364 million mt of sulphuric acid throughout the year. The investment plan for 2025 is 1.617 billion yuan, covering fixed asset investments, digital projects, and geological exploration projects. During a survey, Yunnan Copper stated that in Q1 this year, the average price of sulphuric acid in major regions increased significantly YoY. The company actively seized market opportunities, contributing positively to its performance. 》Click to view SMM spot copper prices 》Subscribe to view historical SMM spot metal price trends Reviewing the sulphuric acid price trend in Q1, it can be seen that: In Q1, both domestic and overseas demand was strong, leading to an increase in the price of smelting acid. As of March 28 (week), the average weekly price of smelting acid (sulphuric acid) in Yunnan was 780 yuan/mt, up 280 yuan/mt from the average weekly price of 500 yuan/mt on December 27, 2024 (week). From the perspective of the average price increase, the Q1 increase was 56%. According to SMM, domestically, in Q1, sulphuric acid prices were supported by "spring ploughing" and the cost of raw materials. Overseas, demand was relatively strong in Q1, with export prices also rising to a relatively high level in recent years. After reaching a high average annual price of 780 yuan/mt, with the end of spring ploughing, the operating rates of downstream fertilizer enterprises declined, and domestic demand weakened. Domestic sulphuric acid prices began to weaken from mid-to-late April. In early May, influenced by the end of the spring ploughing season, sulphuric acid prices in many parts of the country were still in the process of pulling back, with significant declines particularly in the south China market, while prices in the northern market remained relatively stable overall. In mid-May, domestic sulphuric acid prices showed mixed performance, mainly due to the continuous release of fertilizer export information and the gradual implementation of related policies, leading to a gradual rebound in downstream demand. Sulphuric acid prices in the south stopped falling and stabilized. After entering late May, sulphuric acid prices in many parts of the country rose again. Since June, sulphuric acid prices in Yunnan have remained stable at the beginning of the month. However, recently, influenced by the escalating geopolitical conflicts and the resulting uncertainties, domestic sulphur and sulphuric acid prices have both risen significantly in the past week, with sulphuric acid prices showing a 15.38% increase in the week ending June 13, with its average price (as of the week ending June 13) rising to 600 yuan/mt.

Tin prices have fallen sharply recently. Looking ahead, on the macro front, the US economy is expected to slow down this year, and the US Fed may extend the period of maintaining the current interest rate level. On the supply and demand front, the continuous implementation of trade-in and equipment renewal policies in China is boosting the demand for non-ferrous metals in the manufacturing and consumer sectors. Myanmar's tin ore accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports and 47% of the total domestic tin ore supply. According to customs data, China's tin ore imports in April 2025 were 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt (metal content)), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY. From January to April, cumulative tin ore imports were 36,700 mt, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98%. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin ore mining in August 2023, China's tin ore imports from Myanmar have remained at a low level due to the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production. The downward trend in import volumes continued in April 2025, primarily due to unstable import profitability and the impact of the situation in Myanmar's Wa region. The tight supply of tin ore has led to a 40% decline in processing fees. The processing fee for tin concentrates in Yunnan Province dropped from 17,000 yuan/mt from May to July 2024 to 12,000 yuan/mt, which is lower than the 13,550 yuan/mt at the end of March 2023 and close to the cost line of some enterprises, leading to production cuts by some enterprises. Currently, processing fees are hovering near the lowest levels in the past six years. The tight supply of tin ore has been transmitted to the refined tin smelting sector. The shortage of ore sources is directly reflected in production data: in the week ending May 23, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 56.44%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous week, with operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi being 65.48% and 41.02%, respectively. In Yunnan, smelters are under sustained profit pressure due to low tin ore imports from Myanmar and depressed processing fees. In Jiangxi, some enterprises are struggling to resume production due to insufficient recycling volume of scrap tin and declining processing fees. In April 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,200 mt, down 0.5% MoM and 8.1% YoY. It is expected that production will increase by approximately 2% MoM in May. In downstream industries, tin solder demand accounts for 68%, with the semiconductor sector accounting for 80% of total tin solder demand. In April 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises was 76.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low in May. Currently, orders from traditional downstream industries have not yet surged, with just-in-time procurement being the main focus, and spot market transactions remain sluggish. However, global semiconductor demand provides long-term support for the tin market. Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% YoY in Q1 2025, and the market size is expected to grow by 11% YoY for the full year, potentially boosting global tin demand by 4.4%. Additionally, the operating rate of primary lead production in the three provinces rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 67.75% last week. Despite the off-season in the battery market limiting further rebounds in the operating rate, production remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic tin market has entered a destocking cycle, but the rate of destocking has slowed. As of the end of last week, SHFE tin inventory stood at 8,445 mt, a decrease of 28 mt from the previous week; LME tin inventory was 2,665 mt, down 70 mt from the prior week. According to SMM data, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions was 10,333 mt on May 27, an increase of 374 mt from the previous week. The tin market is exhibiting a pattern of "constrained supply and promising demand." Conflicts in the DRC and earthquakes in Myanmar have heightened market concerns about the supply side. Coupled with the delay in the production resumptions in Wa State, refined tin production continued to decline YoY. Despite being in the off-season, the growth in demand from the semiconductor industry provides some support to the tin market. From a cost perspective, current prices are approaching the range of the tariff floor and cost floor. SHFE tin below 258,000 yuan/mt presents an opportunity to establish long positions at lows, with a medium-term target above 290,000 yuan/mt and a long-term target above 330,000 yuan/mt. (Source: Futures Daily)