In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.

In the spot market, high-priced long-term contracted cargoes arrived at ports in the early stage with high cargo receiving costs. Domestic traders showed a strong willingness to prop up prices, driving continuous hikes in chromite quotations. However, downstream demand remained sluggish. Coupled with persistently high shipments and a notable inventory build-up, selling pressure intensified, slowing the upward momentum of spot chromite prices.

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $67.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $25–$27/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is slightly experiencing thunderstorms in this week. However, Halmahera's region is slightly stable. Currently, The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. Because miners currently secure higher profit margins from saprolite, they are less inclined to produce and sell limonite. To counter this reluctance, and to navigate ongoing RKAB approval uncertainties, fulfill the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and meet rising demand from outer islands, smelters have been compelled to raise limonite bids to incentivize miners to release their lower-grade ore. Consequently, hydrometallurgical ore prices are projected to follow the upward trajectory of pyrometallurgical ore and remain at elevated levels." On the policy front, although rumors regarding the implementation and delayed release of the new tax policy persist, the specific execution details remain under internal review by relevant ministries. While operational details for specific products like NPI and MHP still await final inter-ministerial confirmation, current policy winds suggest that the era of duty-free exports for Indonesian intermediate nickel products may soon be coming to an end. Looking ahead, the continuous tightening of Indonesian policies is expected to open up further upside potential for nickel ore prices and exert a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, upcoming nickel export tax/windfall tax policy, probable nickel benchmark price changes, as well as miners are unable to produce with their "old quota" in April, nickel ore prices in next month are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 6.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1083.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 1.38 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 136.9 per nickel unit. Overall, the high-grade NPI market operated steadily. After transaction centers stabilized, the market entered a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream participants, leaving prices under short-term pressure. On the supply side, domestic nickel ore news has seen continuous disruptions. Upstream quotes were initially firm due to cost support; however, the market supply of scrap steel has increased significantly. Under the dual suppression of sluggish end-user demand and the economic advantage of scrap steel, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI have gradually weakened. In the stainless steel spot market, absolute social inventory levels remain high. Steel mills are maintaining high production schedules, leading to significant shipping pressure. Although there is some support on the cost side, the mills face considerable cost pressure themselves, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has become prominent. Consequently, their acceptance of high-priced ferronickel is low, and their procurement attitude remains cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a weak but stable trend. In summary, NPI prices will remain in an upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the short term, with upside price pressure driven by competition from scrap steel and the limited purchasing willingness of stainless steel mills.

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, auxiliary material prices were generally stable with slight rise, while market sentiment in the coking coal and coke markets improved, and coke producers showed a stronger willingness to increase prices. Ore side, Philippine ore prices edged lower, while Indonesian nickel ore prices continued to rise. Meanwhile, downstream high-grade NPI prices remained under pressure, and amid cost uncertainties caused by high freight rates and geopolitical conflicts, smelter profit margins were squeezed.

SMM News, March 27: This week, the tax-inclusive ex-factory price of secondary lead was at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, with slight premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt in some areas. Market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, downstream purchasing was weak, and smelters offered few quotations while generally holding prices firm and being reluctant to sell, resulting in sluggish trading. As of March 27, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -229 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -429 yuan/mt (excluding revenue from high-value by-products such as tin and antimony). The rigid inversion caused by high raw material costs and low lead prices was the main reason for the industry's continued losses. After the Qingming Festival next week, more smelters are expected to resume production, and expectations for increased spot supply of secondary lead are strong. However, downstream purchases for rigid demand are limited, making it difficult for spot prices to rise significantly, and smelters' profit margins will remain constrained. At present, supplies of primary lead and imported lead are ample, and spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to maintain sideways movement, with insufficient momentum for substantial premiums. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

According to SMM, the cost side of the enamelled wire industry has remained under pressure recently. Driven by rising crude oil prices, insulating varnish prices increased by more than 20%, leaving enamelled wire enterprises facing a sharp rise in raw material costs that was difficult to pass on to downstream customers, further squeezing profit margins.

SMM, March 19: This week, Chinese aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,180-10,450 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of key raw materials for aluminum fluoride continued to rise. Specifically, the delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder remained stable, currently concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. During the Two Sessions, mining at northern mines was restricted, leading to a temporary tight supply of fluorite raw ore; some beneficiation plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm due to relatively low inventory levels, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises slightly recovered in operating demand after resuming work following the holiday. SMM expected fluorite prices to hold up well in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged up steadily, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,673 yuan/mt, up 1.52% WoW. The sulphuric acid market remained firm, and prices continued to rise amid higher costs, tightening supply, and strong demand. Overall, the raw material side of aluminum fluoride moved higher, and production pressure on enterprises increased significantly. Supply side showed a pattern of rigid cost increases, deeply pressured profitability, and weak willingness to operate. Recently, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite, sulphuric acid, and aluminum hydroxide continued to rise, significantly pushing up aluminum fluoride production costs. The industry was caught in a squeeze from both costs and selling prices, with enterprises generally operating at a loss. Production enthusiasm was hit hard, overall industry operating rates remained in the doldrums, and actual supply increases were limited. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity downstream remained stable, forming a rigid demand base for aluminum fluoride; however, enterprises mainly restocked for rigid demand and purchased as needed, with cautious procurement and insufficient demand elasticity to boost prices. Brief comment: This week, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid held up well, and the cost side continued to rise, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises; in March, the aluminum fluoride tender price of a downstream benchmark enterprise was finalized, down 200-370 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot market also moved in the doldrums under its guidance. At present, the industry is facing a two-way squeeze of rising costs and selling prices under pressure, narrowing profit margins and dampening production enthusiasm. Fundamentally: Cost side: fluorite and sulphuric acid prices remained firm, providing clear bottom support for aluminum fluoride. Supply side: industry operating rates stayed in the doldrums, with no significant increase in production, and overall supply and demand remained subdued. Demand side: rigid demand from aluminum remained stable, but there was no obvious incremental growth, and procurement was mainly as needed. Overall, the strong support effect from fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side became more prominent, coupled with low industry operating rates and shrinking supply. Aluminum fluoride's price center is expected to move steadily higher next month, showing a mild strengthening trend. Going forward, close and continuous attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

On 9 January, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration released a new export tax rebate policy. From 1 April 2026, China’s export tax rebates of up to 13% for solar battery panels will be rolled back, while the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%. The complete phase-out of tax rebates for the above-listed products is scheduled for 1 January 2027. This policy aims to negate price distortions emerged in overseas battery markets, which have long affected the profit margins of domestic manufacturers.

[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.