July copper cathode production was recorded at 1.1268 million mt, down 1.59% MoM.

It is learned that this week (July 24 – July 30, 2026), the combined operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.02%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points WoW. The operating rate of primary lead enterprises edged up slightly this week, mainly due to the resumption of normal production at a medium-sized lead smelter in Hunan. Next week, maintenance at some small and medium-sized enterprises in Yunnan is about to end, and their production recovery progress will be monitored; some smelters in Hunan will gradually enter maintenance, which is expected to bring a certain reduction. In addition, a smelter in Inner Mongolia also plans to conduct maintenance in late August. Attention will be paid to the subsequent maintenance and production resumption progress of primary lead smelters.

[SMM Express] South Africa's ferrochrome industry remains under close market watch as producers gradually advance production recovery following the implementation of preferential electricity tariffs for major smelters. The lower power tariff has improved the operating environment, supported the restart of some idle furnace capacity and eased immediate pressure on the sector after a prolonged period of production cuts driven by high electricity costs. Market participants, however, remain cautious over the pace of recovery. Although the tariff relief is expected to support higher ferrochrome output in the short term, producers continue to face challenges from global price competition and operating costs. The speed at which additional smelting capacity returns to operation will be closely monitored, as stronger ferrochrome production could gradually increase domestic chrome ore consumption and influence South Africa's export mix.

SMM expects secondary lead prices to remain in the doldrums in H2. High scrap battery costs provide rigid bottom support for lead prices, but triple negative factors—macro rate hike expectations, high LME inventories, and the downstream consumption off-season—continue to cap the upside room……

Can Peru’s new government improve the delivery efficiency of copper mine projects? The Fujimori government’s plan is not to redefine the mining regime, but to strengthen implementation instruments such as approvals, infrastructure, reinvestment incentives, and revenue distribution. However, before constraints related to communities, permitting, infrastructure, and the decline of old mines are substantially overcome, Peru’s copper ore supply is still unlikely to be significantly released in the short term.

The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] Due to the fact that enterprises that previously cut production have not yet resumed production and new orders were insufficient, the recovery in operating rates fell short of expectations. Wire and cable and enamelled wire producers marginally sustained production based on existing orders. This week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod rose 0.38 percentage points WoW to 65.61%.

In June 2026, SMM secondary refined lead production rose slightly by 2.23% MoM, but dropped sharply by 31.2% from the 2026 peak of 282,000 mt in January. The industry’s production center shifted lower continuously in Q2. SMM’s weekly operating rate for secondary lead across four provinces hovered in the range of 28.4%–29.7% throughout the month, staying well below the normal reasonable range for a prolonged period.

SMM, June 30: According to SMM statistics, total production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China in June 2026 fell about 6.0% YoY and about 5.5% MoM. In June, supply-side disruptions in the alumina market outside China became more pronounced compared with May. On one hand, due to the situation in the Middle East, production and shipment paces at some enterprises had not yet fully recovered; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia persisted, weighing on local alumina production and shipments. By enterprise and region, Alcoa said that, due to the impact of the earlier Cyclone Narelle in Australia, the LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. It expected Q2 alumina shipments to be about 120,000 mt lower than in Q1, and the related disruption was expected to push up Q2 production costs by approximately $30 million. In addition, due to the Middle East situation, fuel costs at the company's São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also rose. Currently, Alcoa's Western Australian alumina operations are still facing multiple pressures, including weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades, and rising energy costs, and its overall operations are clearly under pressure. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. In June, during discussions on a new round of EU sanctions against Russia, the issue of alumina exports from Aughinish Alumina in Ireland to Russia continued to attract attention. Public reports indicated that the latest EU sanctions package did not yet include alumina exports within its restrictions, but if sanctions are further tightened later, it could affect alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape in Europe. Since June, with the arrival of some Malaysian bauxite, raw material supply at some local alumina refineries has improved, leaving some room for production recovery, but issues related to bauxite export quotas in Indonesia and logistics stability still require close monitoring. Additionally, in June, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan explored cooperation on alumina supply and aluminum product trade, under which Azerbaijan plans to supply alumina to Tajikistan and Tajikistan would export aluminum products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation will have limited impact on alumina production outside China in the near term, but it reflects that regional aluminum industry chain coordination and trade flow adjustments are still advancing. Looking ahead to July, metallurgical-grade alumina supply outside China is expected to see a recovery-driven increase, with production rebounding about 4.5% MoM. On one hand, with the arrival of bauxite at ports, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased, and output is expected to gradually recover; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing marginally, and earlier affected production and shipment paces may recover. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, cost pressure from energy in Australia, and Indonesia's bauxite quota issues may still disrupt the supply recovery outside China. Overall, alumina production outside China is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains high. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

SMM June 23: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.27%, SHFE nickel rose 0.39%. SHFE tin fell 1.96%, SHFE copper edged down, SHFE lead rose 0.34%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 2.63%, and the cast aluminum main contract rose 0.3%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.16%. HRC fell 0.21%, stainless steel fell 1.46%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.63%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.81%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.62%. LME aluminum fell 1.1%, LME lead rose 0.77%. LME zinc rose 1.32%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel rose 1%. Overnight, in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.85%, and COMEX silver fell 1.71%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.18%, and SHFE silver fell 1.23%. As of 7:16 on June 23, the overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Group: Full-Throttle Efforts to Prepare for Peak Summer, Stabilizing Production and Increasing Output to Cement Coal Supply as Ballast] National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. announced in a statement that, according to forecasts by the National Climate Center, this summer's average temperature across the country will be higher than usual, with more high-temperature days than normal. National Energy Group fully leverages its integrated coal-power-chemical-transport operation advantages, makes all-out efforts across all links, and firmly shoulders the heavy responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak summer. Coal supply is the baseline support for stable electricity generation. The coal segment of National Energy Group is rapidly stabilizing and increasing production, coordinating internal and external resources, and ensuring equipment operation and maintenance, aiming for high-output and stable-supply goals to solidify the foundation of energy supply and fully support regional peak power load demand. [National Energy Group's Installed Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 400 Million kW, Accounting for About 1/10 of National Total] National Energy Group announced that its installed power generation capacity has exceeded 400 million kW, accounting for about one-tenth of the national total, playing a "pillar" role in ensuring stable national power supply and safeguarding energy security. After exceeding 300 million kW in May 2023, its installed capacity entered the 400 million kW level in June 2026, setting a new record among global energy companies for installed generation capacity. Among this, thermal power and wind power installed capacity both remain the world's largest. As of end-May 2026, National Energy Group has put into operation 65 ultra-supercritical coal-fired power units of gigawatt-class, accounting for nearly 30% of all such units in China, with its high-efficiency and clean coal power scale firmly leading the industry; at the same time, the group actively explores new development models such as integrated wind-solar-storage-hydrogen and coordinated generation-grid-load-storage, and has built new-type energy storage with a total capacity of 8.01 million kW / 19.21 million kWh, continuously enhancing its renewable energy consumption and regulation capabilities. (Xinhua) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101. Fed's Goolsbee said: Fed Chairman Walsh's approach is to reduce speculation on interest rates and reduce forward guidance; I quite agree with this approach. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. For the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 26.1%, a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 21.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed tightening. The bank's economists previously expected the Fed to hold rates steady this year. The reason for the revised forecast is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in Fed communication, suggesting the Fed will take a more proactive approach to combating inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains a minority view: only 19% of market investors currently expect three hikes, though that proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: [Starmer Says UK Labour Party New Leader Election to Start on July 9] UK Prime Minister Starmer said on the 22nd, when announcing his resignation, that the election for the new leader of the UK Labour Party will begin on July 9. Starmer said he has asked the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to set a timetable for the leadership election, with the nomination process to start on July 9 and be completed before the parliamentary summer recess. This means the new Labour leader will be in place before Parliament returns in September. (Xinhua) Macro front: Today, data to be released include the preliminary June manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; the preliminary UK June services PMI; the UK June CBI industrial orders balance; the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6; the preliminary US June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs; and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Additionally, watch for: a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; and MSCI's release of its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be placed on the watch list for developed market status. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.33% and Brent down 2.8%. Oil prices opened higher on Monday but then turned lower. Wallstreetcn mentioned that Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on Monday, announcing that the US and Iran have agreed on a mechanism to end military operations in Lebanon and have established a communication channel to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury Department then announced that it would allow Iran to sell oil to international markets within 60 days, as one of the conditions of the memorandum of understanding signed by both sides last week. US Vice President Vance described the first round of negotiations as "very, very smooth." (Wallstreetcn) Furthermore, Iraq's deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday that Iraq plans to gradually restore crude oil production to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day. ANZ Bank expects that in the first four weeks, production will return to about 2 million to 3 million barrels per day. Resumption of production still faces challenges; in Q3 2026, 2 million to 3.5 million barrels per day may be restored, provided the market is stable, while another 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added: "The initial production recovery will mainly come from logistics (transportation), not production. Later stages will depend on upstream production and refinery restarts. A full resumption of production is unlikely this year." (Jinshi Data APP)