In contrast to the typical price declines seen during the traditional spring festival low season from January to February in previous years, China’s domestic manganese sulfate market has recently staged an independent rally of “strong performance amid the off-season”, with prices rising steadily along the way.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic aluminum market entered the traditional resumption cycle, but the problem of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became prominent. Warehouses in major consumption areas faced comprehensive capacity constraints, and congestion at railway stations was widespread. Overall inventory pressure is expected to persist until the end of March...

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in February 2026 (28 days) increased 2.1% YoY but decreased 8.9% MoM. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the overall operating rate of downstream industries was low during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also saw a significant pullback, dropping 7.7 percentage points MoM to 64.4%, in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reasons were that demand had not yet recovered amid the off-season, coupled with production halts for the holiday at some downstream enterprises. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in February increased 25.8% YoY and 16.2% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics show domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 45.109 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering March 2026, with the return of calendar days, aluminum production is expected to rebound MoM. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, as downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday, raw material demand is gradually strengthening. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise significantly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase 9.2 percentage points to 73.5%.

Recently, the domestic tantalum market, driven by a significant rise in raw material costs, has shown an overall upward trend. Although the pace of price increases for tantalum ingots has lagged slightly, the medium-term upward logic remains clear. Tantalum ore prices have experienced a substantial increase, with the CIF China price quoted at $160–165 per pound, up 17.32% from pre-holiday quotes. This rise is primarily driven by two factors. On one hand, landslides and production halts at core mining areas have directly led to a tangible contraction in global supply, rapidly tightening the availability of spot cargo. On the other hand, downstream electronics manufacturers and traders, driven by bullish sentiment, have engaged in concentrated stockpiling and price locking, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch in the circulation chain and collectively pushing up transaction prices for ore. Boosted by strong raw material performance, tantalum product quotes have gradually risen. Transactions for 99.5% tantalum oxide have reached 3,900 yuan/kg, with manufacturers raising prices slightly MoM from pre-holiday levels. For 99.95% tantalum ingot, transactions have occurred at 5,500 yuan/kg, while some manufacturers quote 6,000 yuan/kg, showing minimal increase from pre-holiday quotes. Specifically, some traders are offloading tantalum ingots, creating interference in the upward movement of spot prices and causing a temporary lack of momentum for ingot price hikes. However, with strong cost support from the sharp rise in tantalum ore, downstream procurement demand is expected to be released quickly. Short-term disruptions are unlikely to alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingot quotes are anticipated to soon catch up with the increases, maintaining the overall strong performance of the tantalum market.

[Supply Contraction Drives Up Tantalum Ore Prices, Smelting End Price Increases Temporarily Hindered] Recently, tantalum ore prices have surged significantly due to mine collapses, overseas recovery, and stockpiling with price locking, with the China landed price reaching $160–165 per pound, indicating strong cost support. Tantalum oxide transactions are smooth at 3,900 yuan per kg, with offers following suit. Although tantalum ingots have traded at 5,500 yuan per kg and some manufacturers offer 6,000 yuan per kg, upward momentum is temporarily insufficient due to trader sell-offs. Short-term disruptions do not alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingots are expected to catch up quickly.

SMM February 26: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on fulfilling orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance, resulting in sluggish trading activity and stable prices. To date, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained largely stable, with SMM cryolite quotes at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder held steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, production halts in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday reduced market supply. Coupled with routine environmental and safety supervision, small and medium-sized mines experienced unstable operations. Imports were mainly medium and low-grade, with limited high-grade supply, prolonging structural tightness. Although supply contracted, high inventory in some regions and sluggish shipments exerted some downward pressure on prices. Demand side remained weak, with core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry operating at low rates, resulting in weak digestion of fluorite powder and lack of strong momentum. Current market transactions were sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices held steady, with the SMM weighted average price at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulfuric acid market continued to fluctuate at highs, providing some cost support for aluminum fluoride. Overall, rigid cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials remained. Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, some previously idled enterprises in the domestic aluminum fluoride industry gradually prepared to resume production after the holiday, raising expectations for supply recovery. However, some enterprises conducted planned maintenance, and high costs constrained production enthusiasm. Industry-wide operating rates remained in the doldrums, with relatively ample spot supply in the market. Demand side, operating capacity in the downstream aluminum industry stayed stable, providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride demand. Post-holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed procurement pace, and market activity recovered. However, cautious procurement sentiment led enterprises to restock as needed and maintain low inventory, resulting in limited actual purchases and insufficient support for aluminum fluoride price increases. Brief comment: Current stable trends in raw material prices such as fluorite and sulfuric acid provided strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, ample spot supply and post-holiday production resumptions were expected to increase supply further. Demand side, only rigid restocking from the aluminum industry drove a slight rebound, lacking significant boosts. Considering multiple factors, SMM expected aluminum fluoride prices to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Future monitoring should focus on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Tin Market Post-Holiday Outlook Supply-Demand Imbalance and Price Gameplay Amid Fluctuations at Highs]

According to reports, as of February 12, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands was 9,900 mt, an increase of 1,000 mt WoW. Recently, some primary lead smelters have entered maintenance, leading to a reduction in lead ingot supply compared to last week. With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, downstream enterprises are collectively shutting down for the holiday, resulting in a significant decrease in lead ingot procurement WoW. Additionally, fewer transport vehicles are available, causing smelters' in-factory inventories to accumulate. Although some suppliers transferred lead ingots to social inventory, after logistics halted in the latter part of the week, lead ingot inventory was more reflected in enterprise in-factory inventories. Furthermore, during the Chinese New Year period, some medium and large primary lead enterprises will maintain shift work, while downstream enterprises will be completely shut down. Post-holiday lead ingot inventory is still expected to rise.

[Enterprise Shutdowns and Holidays, Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Continue to Decline] Order-wise, pre-holiday stockpiling by end-users across various sectors has largely concluded, with overall market trading remaining subdued and zinc oxide demand showing mediocre performance. Looking ahead to next week, the industry is expected to enter a full holiday cycle, with only a few large plants maintaining minimal production during the Chinese New Year period, while the majority of zinc oxide enterprises will gradually suspend operations for the holiday.