According to statistics from SMM, China's output of high-carbon ferrochrome in May 2026 rose by 5.09% month-on-month and 23.85% year-on-year.

According to China Customs data, China’s total chromite ore imports stood at 2.3278 million tons in April 2026, down 4.6% month-on-month while rising 53.65% year-on-year.

[SMM Analysis: Stripping Away Macro Noise: Analysis of the Substantive Impact of Peru's Emergency Decree on Tin Supply]

Scrap tightening and a major nickel-cobalt producer's output cut pushed SHFE stainless steel to levels not seen since 2023 — yet physical demand remains conspicuously absent heading into the May Day break

In April, rare earth oxide production showed a slight overall decline, with all major products seeing varying degrees of MoM reduction. Supply-side disruptions became one of the market's key focal points for the month.

Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Dual Support from Costs and Stockpiling — Magnesium Ingot Prices Stopped Falling and Stabilized This Week] This week, China's magnesium industry chain overall showed a stable-to-firm trend, moving sideways. Raw material dolomite relied on supply from neighboring provinces due to production halts in major producing areas, while downstream primary magnesium smelting operating rates rose to form rigid demand support. Combined with high transportation costs, prices remained stable overall with delivery-to-factory prices consolidating at highs. The Chinese market for magnesium ingots consolidated at lows and stabilized, benefiting from pre-holiday restocking that drove transaction recovery and enterprise sentiment to hold prices firm amid rising smelting costs. The export market remained sluggish as ex-China clients chased lower prices and new orders were weak. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy markets operated steadily in tandem — the former maintained production based on demand supported by stable domestic and export orders and sufficient raw material inventory, while the latter moved in line with magnesium ingot prices, with processing fees remaining firm and benefiting long-term from demand support driven by tightening regulatory standards for two-wheeled electric vehicles under the new national standard. The overall industry chain supply-demand pattern showed localized divergence but remained generally stable.

Cost Support Strengthened, Nickel Sulphate Prices Rose As of this Thursday, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average prices rose WoW. Demand side, with Labour Day holiday approaching, some producers recently stockpiled ahead of the holiday. Combined with recovering production schedule expectations for May at some enterprises, acceptance of nickel salt prices increased. Supply side, as nickel prices, MHP payables, and auxiliary material prices all moved up this week, driving a significant rise in spot costs for some producers, nickel salt quoted prices rose accordingly. Looking ahead, recently Inventory, upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index slightly rose from 5.5 days to 5.6 days this week, downstream precursor plant inventory index stayed at 11 days, and integrated enterprise inventory index declined from 7.3 days to 6.8 days. Buy-sell strength, upstream nickel salt smelter Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor rose from 1.9 to 2 this week, downstream precursor plant procurement sentiment factor stayed at 2.9, and integrated enterprise sentiment factor stayed at 2.6. (Historical data available via database query) Nickel Prices Rose Sharply, Nickel Sulphate Costs Increased Cost side, MHP raw material market circulation was tight. Affected by sulphur shortages and HPM revisions, MHP transaction coefficients stayed high this week, with quoted coefficients further rising. Nickel prices, stimulated by news of intermediate product production halts in Indonesia, rose further this week. Overall for the week, nickel prices basically rose WoW, MHP payables held steady, driving nickel salt production spot costs up WoW.

Intermediate Product Production Cuts Materialized, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicator Stayed High This Week

SMM Nickel News, April 30: Macro and market news: (1) The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive hold this year. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation triggered by tariffs is expected to pull back over the next two quarters. (2) US President Trump said on April 29 that the US and Iran were negotiating by phone, while emphasizing that Iran must clearly commit to completely abandoning nuclear weapons. He will continue the maritime blockade on Iran until Iran agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Spot market: On April 30, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -800-100 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways during the session, closing at 150,540 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.02%. Indonesia's tightening quota policy continued to strengthen, the sulphur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulphur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and production cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices held up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.