SMM April 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in April 2026 (30 days) was up 1.7% YoY and down 2.9% MoM. As the traditional peak consumption season continued, downstream sectors such as plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum wire and cable provided effective demand support. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, rising 1.7 percentage points MoM to 75.3%. Overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, with the core drag coming from weaker-than-expected aluminum extrusion orders. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in April declined 3.4% YoY and 9.0% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end April, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering May 2026, the proportion of liquid aluminum production among China's aluminum enterprises is expected to diverge. Overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, export orders for China's aluminum semis are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%. [Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW SA), the European Union’s largest coking coal producer, has reduced its production forecast for 2026 to approximately 13.3 million tonnes, down from a prior estimate of 13.5 million tonnes. The revision stems from a methane and rock outburst incident at the KWK Pniowek mine, which led to a suspension of activities and a delay in key longwall operations from May to November 2026. This reduction in local European supply places additional pressure on regional steelmakers to source more expensive metallurgical coal from Australia and North America.

SMM News on March 31: According to SMM statistics, China’s aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM. This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream industries moved higher overall, and the proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded in tandem, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment toward casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China’s aluminum casting ingot volume in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China’s existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, China aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM. This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream sectors generally increased, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also rebounded, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, above expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment for casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China aluminum casting ingot production in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Source: SMM

Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts.

SMM, February 28 news： In February 2026, China's secondary lead market was squeezed by three factors—the holiday effect, high costs, and weak demand—leading to a significant pullback in production as expected, with industry operations characterized by "weak supply and demand and profit margins under pressure." Data showed that secondary lead production in February 2026 fell as expected by 140,000 mt, plunging 40.38% MoM and dropping 2.19% YoY; secondary refined lead output decreased 45.18% MoM and declined 11.36% YoY. In terms of the causes of production cuts, the primary factors were fewer calendar days in the month combined with the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, which led to widespread shutdowns or production cuts at mainstream secondary lead smelters across the country. Worker departures for the holiday pushed operating rates to low levels, with particularly sharp declines in core production areas such as Jiangsu and Henan due to delayed worker returns and logistics constraints. Pressure on the cost side further exacerbated the scale of production cuts: before the holiday, scrap battery prices remained high due to recyclers' reluctance to sell, pushing up secondary lead smelting costs, while lead prices continued to trend weakly during the same period, causing widespread losses among secondary lead enterprises. Theoretical comprehensive profit/loss margins for large-scale producers were in negative territory, with small and medium-sized enterprises facing even more severe losses. Weakness on the demand side created a dual suppression: downstream battery producers entered the holiday early, causing lead ingot purchase willingness to hit rock bottom, while smelters' finished product inventories continued to accumulate, further dampening production enthusiasm among enterprises and ultimately leading to a sharp contraction in secondary lead output in February. Looking ahead to March, China's secondary lead market is expected to see a clear corrective rebound, with production forecast to increase by about 70,000 mt compared to February. The core driver of this trend is the comprehensive resumption of work and production across the industry chain after the holiday. With workers returning in concentration after the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters will enter a period of concentrated production resumptions, and some enterprises have indicated that they can resume operating at full capacity by mid-March. Gradual recovery in downstream demand will provide solid support for the production rebound: battery producers are resuming work successively, pre-holiday accumulated lead ingot inventories are entering a digestion cycle, and purchase willingness is expected to continue improving. Meanwhile, some secondary lead enterprises need to ramp up production to fulfill long-term contract delivery obligations, further driving up operating rates. On the raw material side, the scrap battery recycling market is gradually recovering after the holiday, and smelters' raw material inventories are expected to be replenished, easing supply constraints. Although enterprises still face certain profit pressures, with the combined effects of demand recovery, order support, and inventory digestion, production enthusiasm in the secondary lead industry is expected to improve significantly. Output in March is likely to achieve a substantive rebound, and industry operations will gradually return to normal.

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in February 2026 (28 days) increased 2.1% YoY but decreased 8.9% MoM. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the overall operating rate of downstream industries was low during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also saw a significant pullback, dropping 7.7 percentage points MoM to 64.4%, in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reasons were that demand had not yet recovered amid the off-season, coupled with production halts for the holiday at some downstream enterprises. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in February increased 25.8% YoY and 16.2% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics show domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 45.109 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering March 2026, with the return of calendar days, aluminum production is expected to rebound MoM. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, as downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday, raw material demand is gradually strengthening. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise significantly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase 9.2 percentage points to 73.5%.

SMM January 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in January 2026 (31 days) increased by 2.7% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Overall downstream operating rates trended downward during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also declined, dropping 4.4 percentage points MoM to 72.1%, a decrease larger than initially expected. The main reasons include: 1) Demand had not yet recovered due to the off-season impact, coupled with some downstream enterprises starting their Chinese New Year break early; 2) Aluminum prices generally fluctuated at highs in January, putting pressure on downstream profit margins, leading to an overall decline in operating rates; 3) Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained raw material demand. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in January decreased by 5.9% YoY but increased by 19.4% MoM. Capacity Changes: As of the end of January, SMM statistics show China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and operating aluminum capacity was approximately 44.996 million mt. Production Forecast: Entering February 2026, aluminum production is expected to decrease MoM due to fewer calendar days. Additionally, some new aluminum projects are expected to steadily commence and ramp up production. Regarding the liquid aluminum proportion, with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand for raw materials is marginally weakening. Combined with the impact of high aluminum prices suppressing demand, downstream demand is further weakening marginally, and enterprises' willingness to cast ingots has significantly increased. The liquid aluminum proportion is expected to decrease significantly by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM

Institution: Global smartphone production is expected to decline by 1% in 2025 According to the latest report from Counterpoint Research, impacted by tariffs and the slowdown in the overall development of the industry, global smartphone manufacturing production is expected to decline by 1% YoY in 2025. Compared to the 4% YoY growth in production in 2024, it is evident that the market situation is not optimistic. In 2024, China, India, and Vietnam collectively accounted for over 90% of the global smartphone production, with India experiencing the fastest growth rate.