Recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to accelerate the study and formulation of the Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand (2026-2030). Moving forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to effectively expand China's domestic demand with greater intensity and more concrete measures.

SMM News August 1: Metals markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, gaining 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was unchanged at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a July gain of 4.63%. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc rose 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, and the cast aluminum main contract edged up 0.02%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. In the overnight overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a July gain of 3.16%. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, gaining 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.49%, but posted its second straight weekly gain, up 0.68% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.49%; COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with a weekly decline, down 1.92% for the week, and two straight monthly losses, sliding 3.58% in July. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, posting its second straight weekly gain, up 0.55% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.52%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, but posted two straight weekly gains, up 0.98% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.21%. As of 8:16 on August 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front China side: [State Council executive meeting: Study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech on the H1 economic situation and ensuring sound economic work in H2] The meeting stressed that thinking and understanding should be aligned with the Party Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, more concrete measures should be taken to promote sustained, innovation-driven, high-quality, and improved economic development, and efforts should be made to achieve a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The efficiency of macro policy implementation must be effectively enhanced, existing policies should be fully and optimally utilized, and pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be timely devised and introduced. Domestic demand must be effectively expanded, with a focus on sectors with great potential and strong driving force to launch a series of robust measures, accelerating the implementation of major projects set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and solidly advancing the planning and construction of the “Six Networks”. Internal growth drivers should be continuously strengthened, with more effective and concrete measures introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. Sustained efforts must be made to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, solidly carry out tasks such as disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and workplace safety, strengthen assistance to people in need, and firmly uphold the bottom line of people's livelihoods. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Conducts Supervision and Inspection at Some Automotive Producers] To further standardize competitive order in the automotive industry and enhance the production consistency and quality and safety level of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology went to Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Automotive Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (JAC) from the 30th to the 31st to conduct supervision and inspection on the product safety assurance capabilities and production consistency of road motor vehicle manufacturing enterprises. It is reported that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to deeply carry out actions to enhance production consistency and quality of road motor vehicle products, further strengthen the management of access review and testing verification for "radical" innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle manufacturers to thoroughly investigate product safety risk hazards, strengthen product testing verification and safety assessment, standardize marketing and publicity practices, safeguard the bottom line of product safety, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. (Xinhua) [China Securities Regulatory Commission Approves Coke Options Registration] Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make thorough preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index declined, dropping 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the US dollar index fell, down 1.37% for the month. According to The New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings held by the US Fed, a move that could trigger significant shockwaves and would mark the biggest change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed's 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. The people said that at the meeting this week, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it must hold each year, as well as the timetable for such an adjustment. Warsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Warsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, advocating for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said that Warsh's press conference performance was “weaker than expected” and expected that the US Fed’s “hawkish pivot” would materialize in September, at which point there could be three consecutive rate hikes. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience of US economic activity has been offset by Warsh's failure to translate his tough inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk that the US Fed falls behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in September was 65%, a pullback from 82% a week earlier. (Wall Street CN) Three US Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflation pressures, indicating that the internal pressure on Fed Chairman Warsh to act is mounting. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they were concerned that, although the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, saying that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the US Fed’s 2% target unless the US Fed raises rates; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to run above target until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes, not just a single increase, to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said, “A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take more aggressive action.” Hammack said that if the US Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She said, “Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will pull back to our target on its own.” (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said that whether the interest rate level set by the US Fed is sufficient to curb inflation is an “open question,” and he also said he is uncertain whether he would join the three other regional Fed presidents who voted for a rate hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said, “I think there is a good case for tightening policy and taking back some of the rate cuts from last year.”He noted that given the slowdown in inflation data in June, "I think one can also argue... there is still time before the next meeting to determine whether the current policy stance is appropriate." Barkin will not be a voting member on interest rate decisions until next year. Furthermore, Barkin was skeptical about whether the labour market has strengthened significantly. He stated, "It does not feel like the labour market is tight." He also pointed out that the transmission of price increases through the economy is uneven, making it difficult to assess how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, China July PPI YoY, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid next week to: SpaceX releasing its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures posted sharp gains, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. On the weekly chart, WTI crude oil futures fell 2.81% over the week, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7%. On the monthly chart, WTI crude oil futures surged 24.89% over the month, and Brent crude oil surged 24.8%. The decline in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil transportation. Uncertainty remains over when crude oil supply from the Middle East will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June completely broke down in early July. From mid-to-late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for energy trade, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries destroyed approximately 30% to 45% of Russia's active refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/barrel and sending global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wallstreetcn) The international shipping information platform "Marine Traffic" reported on July 31 that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on July 30 dropped to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. Data from the platform showed that all 5 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the channel on the Iranian side. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CBS News citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. On August 1, Iranian media cited an Iranian official as saying that Iran believes an attack by the US and Israel on Iranian infrastructure would be a "reckless act," and that Iran has formulated a comprehensive plan to respond to "any reckless action by the US." (Jinshi Data APP) According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen's Houthi forces stated that in implementing the strategy of "blockade against blockade," 8 Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and detour around the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on Saudi oil vessels. (Jinshi Data APP) Meanwhile, ICE data showed that for the week ending July 28, Brent crude speculators reduced net long positions by 6,948 lots to 185,083 lots. Diesel speculators increased net long positions by 2,654 lots to 87,194 lots. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended reading:

In July 2026, the copper scrap market operated amid a backdrop where the most-traded SHFE copper contract shot up from 102,000 yuan/mt to above 106,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain exceeding 3,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the combined effect of copper cathode’s sustained one-way rise and copper scrap’s resistance to declines and holding prices firm, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened from around 2,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to over 4,000 yuan/mt at month-end, briefly reaching as high as 4,800 yuan/mt mid-month. The inherent resistance of copper scrap to price declines was the defining supply-side characteristic throughout the month. Under the dual constraints of ongoing compliance on reversed invoicing and a deepening high-temperature off-season, the market displayed a starkly polarized landscape: structurally tight supply, vigorous arbitrage-driven procurement downstream, and even weaker physical consumption in the off-season. Although the rise in copper prices and the widening of the price difference stimulated downstream purchase willingness, procurement was dominated by the hedging logic of “buying raw materials and shorting futures,” resulting in extremely limited restocking volumes for actual production. Supply side, the copper scrap market extended the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026, with the underlying constraint remaining the reverse invoicing policy. From July 1, the new "three-stream-in-one reverse invoicing" policy was officially enforced, but regulatory scrutiny intensified in Jiangxi, Hubei, and other regions. In Jiangxi, production came to a halt after quotas were exhausted; in Hubei, retroactive investigations under the reverse invoicing policy sparked enterprise concerns; and in Shuyang, Jiangsu, invoicing quotas remained restricted, keeping compliant and deductible copper scrap that was available in the market persistently tight. After Document No. 770 cleared local illegal tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and mid-sized copper scrap traders reliant on subsidies continued to exit the market, significantly shrinking overall available supply compared to the same period in previous years. Mainstream copper scrap invoice tax rates exceeded 11%, rising to 12% in certain regions, further driving up enterprises' raw material procurement costs. On the import side, China's cumulative copper scrap imports from January to June stood at 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY. Although smelting capacity expansions for secondary copper in the US and Europe siphoned off high-grade supply, domestic scrap utilization enterprises, influenced by policy factors, were willing to pay higher premiums to secure overseas secondary copper raw materials. Even with elevated discount rates on overseas secondary copper raw materials, imports of such materials showed little sign of a near-term pullback. However, downstream orders were mediocre due to the traditional consumption off-season, placing some pressure on further import growth. Additionally, June was a period of concentrated maintenance for some smelters, leading to divergent demand for different grades of secondary copper raw materials. Owing to bare bright copper's strong substitution for copper cathode, its procurement demand remained relatively stable, with transaction coefficients staying high. In contrast, No.1 copper and No.2 copper were largely affected by smelter maintenance and a phased slowdown in raw material demand, resulting in slight declines in their transaction coefficients. Overall copper prices consolidated with an upward bias in July, but trade remained sluggish amid relatively weak downstream consumption. The discount of bare bright copper to copper cathode widened from about 500 yuan/mt at the start of the month to roughly 900 yuan/mt. Despite subdued end-use demand, prices of tax-inclusive secondary copper raw materials stayed at relatively high levels against a backdrop of persistently tight domestic invoice supply and limited availability of duty-paid material. From the demand side, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened to over 3,800 yuan/mt, making the economic benefits of copper scrap evident, and the purchase willingness of secondary copper rod enterprises was notably robust. However, the robust purchase willingness was mainly directed at futures arbitrage rather than physical restocking: during the period when copper prices shot up, secondary copper rod enterprises generally adopted the hedging strategy of "buying copper scrap while shorting futures" to purchase copper scrap. However, these arbitrage-driven purchases did not fully translate into actual production restocking, and the operating rate of secondary copper rod enterprises only edged up from 17.38% at the beginning of the month to 18.29% at month-end. On the smelting side, anode plate producers using copper scrap, constrained by the "reverse invoicing" policy, were forced to purchase large quantities of imported copper scrap to ensure delivery of long-term contracts. However, the growth in imported copper scrap was limited and could not fully meet the demand from downstream processing and smelting, causing some anode plate producers to shut down part of their capacity, and the delivery volume under long-term contracts is expected to decline. The implementation standards of the "reverse invoicing" policy vary by region. Some secondary copper rod enterprises faced insufficient input invoices due to "reverse invoicing" issues, unable to issue sufficient output invoices to downstream end-users, resulting in some payments being temporarily withheld by 13%-15%. Meanwhile, downstream clients of anode plate producers using copper scrap are mostly state-owned enterprises, which must ensure the safety and compliance of output invoices. The safest approach is to purchase imported copper scrap that inherently includes 13% VAT, thereby avoiding the risk of input invoices being reversed due to non-compliant "reverse invoicing." Against the backdrop of the "reverse invoicing" policy and the "rectification of the invoicing economy," the invoice costs for tax-inclusive copper scrap in the market have risen sharply, causing the tax-inclusive price difference between primary metal and scrap to deviate from actual market conditions. Looking ahead to August, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap can stabilize above 4,000 yuan/mt, the implementation criteria for reverse invoicing are further clarified, and credit limits in some regions are marginally relaxed, it may drive the release of some rigid demand. Otherwise, under the combination of low copper cathode inventory, high premiums, and downstream reluctance to buy at high prices, the copper scrap market will continue to maintain a weak equilibrium pattern of "suppliers selling and rod enterprises buying for hedging when copper prices rise, and both sides waiting and seeing when copper prices are high." The genuine recovery of physical consumption still awaits a copper price correction or a substantial improvement in end-user orders.

Chile's National Institute of Statistics (INE) said on Friday that copper production in the world's largest producer, Chile, was up 5.1% YoY to 447,294 mt in June.

As of July 30, China’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas stood at 953,000 mt. Cumulative destocking from the YTD high of 1.465 million mt in early May has reached 512,000 mt (-35%), with an additional accelerated destocking of 53,000 mt this week, breaking below the 1 million mt threshold as expected. However, the directional divergence between warehouse withdrawals and inventory has raised concerns...

As of July 30, China's major consumption regions reported aluminum ingot inventory of 953,000 mt, having cumulatively destocked 512,000 mt (-35%) from the year's high of 1.465 million mt in early May. Within the week, destocking accelerated further by 53,000 mt, as expected falling below the 1 million mt mark. However, the directional divergence between warehouse withdrawals and inventory drew attention: weekly warehouse withdrawals pulled back to 127,700 mt, losing the advantage of being at a high for the same period in the past four years. The core driving force of this destocking round has shifted from "demand and warehouse withdrawal boost" in June to "supply contraction + slowdown in shipment pace": the proportion of liquid aluminum rose to 78.3% in July, with casting ingot volume down 15.1% YoY; a sharp drop in arrivals in South China pushed Foshan's premium wider by 50 yuan/mt in a single week to 115 yuan/mt; SMM believes...

According to the SMM survey, in July 2026, the operating rate of mainstream domestic wire and cable enterprises reached 69.82%, down 2.4 percentage points MoM and 2.79 percentage points YoY. Pressured by both copper prices consolidating at highs and the downstream entering the traditional consumption off-season, new orders weakened, leading to a pullback in production loads.

An Australian green hydrogen and ammonia project has selected Trinasolar to supply integrated solar technology for its renewable energy infrastructure. The project will utilize Trinasolar's high-efficiency PV modules and energy storage solutions to power green hydrogen and ammonia production, supporting Australia's low-carbon fuel ambitions. The collaboration highlights the growing integration of solar generation with large-scale hydrogen developments as Australia advances its clean energy industry.

The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has officially approved a €100 million (approximately $114 million) loan to Gotion Power Morocco, a subsidiary of Gotion High‑Tech, for the construction of the first lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery gigafactory in Africa and the MENA region. As the lead arranger under the “New Architecture for Financing Africa's Development” (NAFAD) initiative, the AfDB also plans to raise up to an additional €141 million from partner financial institutions to ensure sufficient project funding. The project is located in Phase III of the Kenitra Atlantic Free Zone, in the Rabat‑Salé‑Kenitra region of Morocco, and covers the full industrial chain from cathode material production, cell manufacturing, to battery pack assembly. Phase I is planned with an annual capacity of 10 GWh for EV battery cells and packs; with subsequent phased expansions, the total capacity is expected to gradually reach 100 GWh in the long term. Phase I is projected to directly create more than 600 high‑skilled jobs and raise Morocco's local industrial integration rate to 70%, significantly boosting the local supplier ecosystem and technical workforce development. AfDB Vice President Kevin Kariuki noted that battery energy storage is the “missing piece” in Africa's clean energy transition. The plant will primarily operate on renewable energy (wind and solar power), which will not only support large‑scale grid integration of new energy but also provide low‑carbon and reliable energy storage solutions. Leveraging Morocco's abundant phosphate resources and China's advanced battery refining and manufacturing technologies, the project will accelerate the local high‑value‑added conversion of critical minerals, shifting away from the traditional export of raw materials. It will help Morocco establish itself as a green mobility industrial hub serving both Europe and the entire African continent. This investment is highly aligned with the AfDB's four strategic pillars: resilient infrastructure development, accelerated industrialization, regional integration, and value addition to natural resources. It marks a milestone in the improvement of Africa's new energy industrial chain.

[SMM Express] Eastern Platinum's Crocodile River Mine has completed a rare turnaround among South African PGM juniors, with chrome concentrate output climbing to 82,120 tonnes in 2025, up 353% from 18,118 tonnes in 2024. The gain came alongside a 59% rise in PGM concentrate production to 5,146 tonnes, lifting mine operating income to US$1.7 million, up 113% year-on-year, and narrowing the fourth-quarter net loss by almost 40%. The recovery reflects Eastplats' shift from a tailings-retreatment chrome operation into a growing metallurgical chrome and PGM concentrate producer, following the 2024 commissioning of a processing facility handling UG2 run-of-mine ore from the Zandfontein underground section. That momentum carried into Q1 2026, with chrome concentrate volumes up 71.7% year-on-year, even as PGM concentrate sales to Impala Platinum continued to account for the bulk of revenue. The chrome ramp-up gives Eastplats a growing secondary exposure to stainless steel raw material markets alongside its core PGM business.