[SMM Primary Lead Production] It is understood that national primary lead output rebounded significantly in July 2026, rising 7.44 percentage points MoM and 11.03 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Cumulative primary lead output in January-July 2026 increased 5.41 percentage points YoY, mainly driven by production resumptions after maintenance at lead smelters in southwest China, northeast China, and east China.

SMM, July 31: Views in the secondary refined lead market diverged further. Upstream suppliers held prices firm aggressively, while downstream enterprises called for price cuts and waited to purchase at lower levels. The price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead narrowed, highlighting the purchasing advantage of primary lead. Price expectations between buyers and sellers differed widely, spot negotiations were at a stalemate, and overall market transactions remained sluggish. This week, mainstream transaction prices for secondary refined lead were at a discount of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, scrap battery prices fell only slightly, widening the loss range for enterprises. As of July 31, 2026, the comprehensive theoretical profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -623 yuan/mt, while that for small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -801 yuan/mt. If lead prices remain in the doldrums next week, the premium quotation range for spot orders of secondary refined lead against the SMM #1 lead average price will expand, and shipment volumes will continue to decline.

In the spot market, this week (July 27–31, 2026), SMM #1 lead prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note. The weekly average price fell 185 yuan/mt WoW, and the overall center moved lower. At month-end, downstream enterprises were less motivated to purchase, and some large enterprises met production needs solely through long-term contracts, with scant replenishment from spot orders. As lead prices dropped, maintenance and production cut plans among primary lead and secondary lead smelters increased, and suppliers' willingness to sell fell in tandem. In the spot market, transactions shifted from quotes at discounts to premiums compared to the start of the week. Specifically, mainstream electrolytic lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory; secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few enterprises at a premium of 125 yuan/mt. The shift in the spot premium structure was mainly because smelters held back from selling at lower prices after the lead price fell, while suppliers actively shipped inventory to delivery warehouses, alleviating in-factory inventory pressure and tightening available supply in the market.

It is learned that as of July 30, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 24,400 mt, a decrease of 5,900 mt WoW. This week, production at primary lead smelters remained stable with a slight increase, while downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and spot lead was generally traded at a discount, with the spread between futures and spot prices around 150-200 yuan/mt. Some suppliers shifted inventories to delivery warehouses, helping to ease in-factory inventory pressure on smelters. Next week, as we enter August and a new round of futures delivery approaches, with lead prices continuing to consolidate at lows, suppliers will still mainly focus on hedging and delivery. It is expected that more in-factory lead ingots will be transferred to delivery warehouses.

It is learned that this week (July 24 – July 30, 2026), the combined operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.02%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points WoW. The operating rate of primary lead enterprises edged up slightly this week, mainly due to the resumption of normal production at a medium-sized lead smelter in Hunan. Next week, maintenance at some small and medium-sized enterprises in Yunnan is about to end, and their production recovery progress will be monitored; some smelters in Hunan will gradually enter maintenance, which is expected to bring a certain reduction. In addition, a smelter in Inner Mongolia also plans to conduct maintenance in late August. Attention will be paid to the subsequent maintenance and production resumption progress of primary lead smelters.

SMM July 31: As of July 30, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 34,000 mt, up about 10,000 mt MoM. Imported crude lead traded in May arrived in a concentrated manner recently after a two-month shipping period, and smelters began refining processing, pushing finished product inventories significantly higher. Meanwhile, the price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead continued to narrow, and downstream users prioritized purchasing primary lead, with secondary lead transactions remaining weak; compounded by lead prices consolidating on a weak note, smelters were trapped in losses and their willingness to sell proactively was low. SMM expects that secondary lead smelter inventories will stay high next week, but with expectations for industry production cuts, the room for further inventory buildup will be relatively limited.

SMM July 31 News: The secondary refined lead market showed clear divergence between bulls and bears. Upstream smelters held firm price sentiment, with some sources indicating quoted at premiums of +150 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price on a delivered basis, unwilling to cut prices to sell. Downstream buyers widely expected prices to fall, suggested the online price be reduced to 15,350 yuan/mt, and adopted a wait-and-see approach, delaying purchases. The price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead narrowed, highlighting primary lead's cost-effectiveness, and purchase willingness from the buying side was weak. The intended price range for spot orders experienced wild swings, upstream and downstream expectations failed to align, and actual market transactions were limited. On that day, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,350 yuan/mt, at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. Supplier selling sentiment stood at 0.86, and secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment on that day was 1.1 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).

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[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Supply and Demand Both Subdued Yet Inventory Buildup Risk Persists; Short-term Lead Prices Will Remain Under Pressure] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to analyze and study current economic situation and economic work. Recently, lead prices have continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with suppliers' hedging willingness strengthening and some lead ingots being gradually transferred to delivery warehouses...

SMM, July 30: Views from upstream and downstream players in the secondary refined lead market are markedly split. Upstream suppliers hold prices firm, with some cargoes intended for delivery at a premium of 75 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price; downstream buyers generally view prices as high, and primary lead offers more cost-effectiveness, with some enterprises calling for a 50 yuan/mt reduction in the online price. Spot order quotations are centered between parity and a discount of 50 yuan/mt ex-factory, sellers and buyers found it hard to agree, actual shipments were limited, and overall deal performance was weak. The SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,475 yuan/mt today, at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. Supplier shipment sentiment stood at 0.89, and purchasing sentiment for secondary refined lead was 0.98 today (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).