Southeast Asia's aluminum scrap market rebounded this week, with key grades in Malaysia and Thailand rising, while ADC12 prices softened amid weak downstream demand. Despite lower LME aluminum prices, tight scrap supply kept offers firm. Sentiment improved slightly, but buying remained need-based. Attention also shifted to US Section 232 developments and their potential impact on trade flows and regional supply.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range. The futures market saw intensifying volatility, with the most-traded contract 2609's price range consolidating from 141,400-154,800 yuan/mt at the week's start to 137,200-148,500 yuan/mt. After hitting a weekly low of 136,800 yuan/mt mid-week, prices rebounded, while open interest continued to decline. Market transactions reflected a pattern of downstream users buying the dip and purchasing as needed, while upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling spot orders, with persistently weak willingness to sell and firm quotes, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of dip-buying and purchasing as needed, with purchase willingness strengthening when prices fell to relatively low levels, though large-scale restocking had yet to emerge. Trader inventories continued to destock due to downstream just-in-time procurement and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable, while the spot-futures price spread continued to strengthen. Supply-side production maintained a decreasing trend, with upstream inventory staying low. This week, lithium carbonate production continued its decreasing trend, mainly because some spodumene and lepidolite-based smelters underwent maintenance, coupled with gradually tightening circulation of spodumene ore, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of lithium chemical plants. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants showed noticeable sentiment to hold back from selling, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels; downstream material plants continued their just-in-time procurement strategy by buying the dip, with inventory remaining largely stable; traders' inventory continued to destock under the impact of downstream purchasing as needed and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a slight upward consolidation trend within a range. Supply-side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening spodumene ore circulation will lend support to prices; demand-side, downstream dip-buying continues, but large-scale centralized stockpiling has yet to appear. Currently, tightening spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread provide bottom support for prices. Close attention should still be paid to the August production schedule expectations of downstream players and whether there are expectations of further tightening in spot lithium carbonate circulation.

This week, platinum and palladium swung wildly, initially falling before rebounding and closing higher. Early in the week, they were dragged lower by the Fed’s hawkish stance and US-Iran tensions, then after hitting bottom on the 20th, buying emerged to fuel a rebound. On the GFEX, platinum closed at 409.35 yuan/g and palladium at 310.80 yuan/g. Spot premiums dipped slightly amid subdued demand. Looking ahead, easing hawkishness could open a window for a rebound, but upside remains capped by unrevised rate hike expectations, geopolitically stoked inflation, and liquidity tightening triggered by AI adjustments. Attention on the late-July FOMC and US-Iran situation.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver V-Shaped Rebound This Week with 8.47% Weekly Gain; Double Bottom Pattern Emerges, Awaiting Breakout] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week, recording a weekly gain of 8.47%. The US Fed's hawkish remarks and geopolitical conflicts once weighed on silver prices, before ceasefire expectations and technical repair drove a rebound. Spot premiums held steady at parity, with thin trading. On the inventory front, total social inventory destocked by 84 mt, and ETF open interest edged up. Technically, a double bottom pattern initially emerges, with attention on a neckline breakout at $63/oz. For next week, the SGE range is seen at 13,300-15,800 yuan/kg, and LBMA at $55-65/oz.

As of Thursday this week, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rebounded. Demand side, being mid-month, downstream enterprises still held raw material inventories, resulting in weak stockpiling sentiment and low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Supply side, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices were still high, and some producers held expectations for production cuts. As nickel prices gradually stabilized, enterprises showed willingness to raise their offers. Looking ahead, the market is expected to focus primarily on destocking this month, with nickel sulphate prices mainly hinging on the cost support from nickel prices. On the inventory front, this week the inventory index of upstream nickel salt smelters slipped from 9.3 days to 8.9 days, that of downstream precursor plants fell from 10.6 days to 9.2 days, and the inventory index of integrated enterprises dropped from 8.1 days to 7.6 days. In terms of buying and selling strength, this week the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor of upstream nickel salt smelters held steady at 1.8, the Purchasing Sentiment Factor of downstream precursor plants remained at 2.5, and the integrated enterprises sentiment factor rose from 2.4 to 2.5. (Historical data can be accessed via the database.)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Backwardation Structure Widens, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, the daily candlestick center moved higher, MACD turned positive, and the middle Bollinger Band below provided support. Overnight, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated, inflation risks increased, and LME zinc inventory continued to decline...

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

On July 21, Vale formally released its Q2 2026 financial report. Benefiting from the capacity release of core projects in Brazil and Canada, the company delivered strong operational performance in Q2, with key figures as follows: Production hit a five-year high: In Q2 2026, finished nickel production reached 42,000 mt (42.0 kt), up 4% YoY, setting the best Q2 production record since 2020. Sales rose to 44,400 mt: In Q2, nickel sales reached 44,400 mt (44.4 kt), up sharply by 7.2% YoY. Sales exceeded production by 2,400 mt. Realized selling price rebounded QoQ: In Q2, the average realized nickel price was $18,061/mt, driven by higher average LME prices, up sharply by $1,046/mt from the previous quarter.

[Ningbo Zinc: Market Traders' Quotes Basically Stable, Downstream Enterprises Mainly Taking a Wait-and-See Stance] The transaction prices of mainstream #0 zinc brands in the Ningbo market were around 24,520-24,620 yuan/mt. Quotes for conventional Ningbo brands stood at a premium of 35 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract and at a premium of 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargo. The mainstream quotes in the Ningbo area were mostly based on the 2608 contract...

SMM nickel July 22 news: Macro and market news: (1) Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya, in a concluding speech during the bill debate on Tuesday, pointed out that the establishment of the Indonesian International Financial Center (Pusat Finansial Indonesia Internasional, or PFII) will attract foreign capital flows and sustainable investment portfolios, which will serve as a long-term financing source, expand the country's economic aggregate, and enable Indonesia's economy to grow faster. (2) The US Trade Representative hinted that the US federal government will soon introduce a new tariff policy to replace the 10% global import tariff that is about to expire. Spot market: On July 22, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 131,200 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the Jinchuan #1 refined nickel average premium was 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel range was -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted higher in the morning session, closing at 131,860 yuan/mt by the end of the morning session, up 1.36%. Base metals strengthened collectively, as funds bought undervalued varieties on dips, pushing nickel prices to undergo a phase of valuation repair. Meanwhile, nickel futures drifted higher on news about Indonesia quotas.