SMM June 25: Today the futures market broke below the 23,000 support level, and the South China spot market shifted from strong to stable. The sharp drop in absolute price combined with strong destocking prompted cargo holders to actively try to raise prices in the morning, while buyers took advantage of the dip to secure rigid demand, still managing to match transactions. However, major players aggressively raised purchase prices to make a market, fueling expectations of a significant strengthening in the spot-futures price spread. Hedging positions then seized the opportunity to increase shipments and cash out. Mainstream quotations were gradually lowered from a premium of +10 yuan/mt to a discount of -10 yuan/mt, and supply became more ample. Downstream buyers were weighed down by bearish sentiment, and their purchasing follow-through was weak. Traders remained cautious and sidelined, with fewer entering the market to buy. Supply and demand both weakened, and actual transactions turned quiet. Spot transactions were concentrated at the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract with a spread of -35 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt.

SMM June 25 News: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.82%, SHFE aluminum fell 2.75%, SHFE lead declined 0.7%, SHFE zinc lost 1.64%, SHFE nickel edged down 0.92%, and SHFE tin decreased 1.76%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract declined 1.75%, and the most-traded silicon metal contract edged down 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel falling 0.75%. Iron ore gained 0.2%, rebar added 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract edged up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38 a.m., LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.82%, LME aluminum added 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc edged up 0.31%, LME tin surged 2.02%, and LME nickel increased 0.77%. Precious metals, as of 11:38 a.m., COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver dropped 2.02%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 7.1%, touching an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 3.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 a.m. on June 25, Selected Futures Midday Quotes: Click to View SMM Data Dashboard Spot Market and Fundamentals Silver: Spot market side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued its decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were concentrated mainly around TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Click for Details Macro Front China: [China's Installed Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 4 Billion kW] The National Energy Administration announced on June 25 that as of end-May 2026, China's installed power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil-fuel capacity has become the dominant driver of incremental capacity additions, as the energy mix continued to optimize. The share of coal-fired capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil-fuel capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity increased from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Net Injects 322.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repos Today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan for the day. (Jin10 Data App) > June 25: Central Parity Rate of the RMB in the Interbank FX Market Was 6.8209 Yuan per US Dollar US Dollar Side: As of 11:38 a.m., the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All major US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for tens of billions of dollars in increased share buybacks and dividends. The stress test assessed how Wall Street lenders would fare under a hypothetical financial system shock. Unlike previous years, the 2026 results will not affect capital requirements as the Fed continues to revise the test to make it more bank-friendly. This year's test evaluated 32 large lenders on how they would withstand a severe global shock featuring heightened stress in commercial and residential real estate markets as well as corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, with commercial real estate prices falling 39% and residential prices declining 30%. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding drop in economic output. Regulators stated: "Despite absorbing more than $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, aggregate capital fell by only 1.6 percentage points and remained well above minimum requirements." According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July stands at 65.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 34.2%. The probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged through September is 33.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, while also stating that no one should be making dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to its pre-April pace and anticipates accelerating economic growth in the remainder of the year without pushing up inflation. He stressed that the dollar's dominance is crucial. He believes that after the Ukraine situation ends, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, and a new Venezuela is moving back into that system. The dollar can remain strong during a rate-cutting cycle, and the US is pleased to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data App) Data Front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US May personal spending month-over-month, the final reading of US Q1 annualized real GDP quarter-over-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-over-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 annualized core PCE price index quarter-over-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-over-month, and US May durable goods orders month-over-month. Also in focus: NVIDIA's annual shareholder meeting; release of Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting minutes; the Fed's release of annual bank stress test results; BOJ Governor Ueda's attendance at an IMF central bank seminar; Micron Technology's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call; and the maturity of 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos today. Crude Oil Side: As of 11:38 a.m., oil prices on both benchmarks extended their decline from the previous three sessions, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent dropping 1.53%. Oil prices gave back wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to exit the Strait of Hormuz. According to maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying around 35 million barrels of crude have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal reopened the critical shipping chokepoint. These non-Iranian tankers were stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively sealed off the waterway at the start of the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to reach Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup indicated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which were hammered during the US-Iran war as near-month crude contract prices surged, inflicting heavy losses on trades that shorted front-month contracts and bought forward ones. Citi noted that the base case is now one of significant de-escalation and expects Brent to fall to $60-$65/bbl over the next 6-12 months as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► [Live] Critical Minerals Supply Chain Restructuring and China's Opportunities – Market Analysis of Antimony/Indium/Gallium/Germanium/Bismuth/Selenium/Tellurium/Rhenium – PV and Precious Metals Outlook ► Tianjin Zinc: Futures Pullback Spurs More Trading Volume [SMM Midday Commentary] ► Dollar Liquidity Shock Hits Precious Metals; Silver Spot Market Premiums Hold, Trading Recovers Slightly [SMM Daily Review] Midday commentaries for other metals to be updated shortly, please refresh to view~

Platinum prices came under heavy pressure and slumped today, as US Treasury Secretary remarks pushed the US dollar index higher, and combined with several foreign investment banks raising their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports, multiple bearish factors weighed on precious metals futures. During morning trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 settled at 389.55 yuan/g, down 4.39%. The inverted spread between the best ask price for platinum 9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2608 contract held near 7 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream quotations for platinum were at a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract. Premiums and discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat compared with yesterday. Most traders' quotes leaned toward the higher end, while some suppliers offered small premiums against the most-traded contract but struggled to close deals. Upstream enterprises were less willing to sell due to low absolute prices, and downstream mainly conducted price negotiations for rigid demand purchases. Overall platinum transactions were normal today.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at discounts ranging from 210 yuan/mt to 130 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,940 yuan/mt, down 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices pulled back in the night session yesterday, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively buy the dip. Intraday purchasing demand increased significantly. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers began to show a willingness to hold prices firm, and subsequently, the momentum for selling at low prices weakened. Regarding market structure, the inter-month price spread has shifted into a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, and additional supply from outside China may follow. Overall, with support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at discounts tomorrow, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

Dear Users: Hello! Thank you for your continued attention and support for SMM (Shanghai Metals Market). The SMM Rare Earth Industry Research Department has always been committed to providing the market with accurate, reliable, and representative price references. Recently, during our market survey and review evaluation of medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore prices, we found that due to changes in the supply-demand relationship of the ore itself, there is significant room for negotiation between buyers and sellers in practice, resulting in a certain degree of deviation between the quoted prices and the actual transaction prices when contracts are concluded. Meanwhile, in the long-term study of medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore, we have found that the ore itself has significant variations in rare earth element grades. Therefore, the evaluation of its actual transaction price typically requires calculation based on SMM oxide prices and the rare earth element grade of the transaction subject, with reference to the SMM medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore price. On this basis, buyers and sellers negotiate and eventually conclude the contract. Based on the above actual changes and pricing logic in the medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore market, the SMM medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore price has been revised from being based on buyers' and sellers' quotes to being based on actual transaction prices aligned with national standards.

SMM June 25: Spot Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,140 yuan/mt, down 2,170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,045 yuan/mt, down 2,155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for five consecutive trading days, with rising arrivals and weak consumption being the main reasons. Although copper prices pulled back notably, downstream players worried about further declines, and with month-end approaching, downstream enterprises’ restocking willingness only improved slightly from yesterday. As a result, suppliers failed to continue holding prices firm and had to sell at premiums unchanged from yesterday. The purchasing sentiment index for copper cathode in Guangdong today was 2.79, up 0.13 from the previous trading day, and the selling sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.04 (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, although copper prices continued to decline, end-use demand was moderate, and spot premiums were merely flat from yesterday.

According to SMM statistics, both mill and social inventories experienced varying degrees of buildup. Total building materials inventory reached 8.0193 million mt, up 226,600 mt or 2.91% MoM, signaling the emergence of an inventory inflection point.

Today, SMM's 10:00 am Ag (T+D) price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 13,816 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks about Iran and Venezuela returning to the US dollar system further reinforced expectations for the dollar’s status as an international reserve currency. Combined with the market’s repricing of the Fed’s hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, exerting temporary pressure on precious metals. Major foreign investment banks all raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes in their latest reports, and precious metals faced interest rate headwinds, tumbling sharply. Spot market side, after silver continued to decline, downstream consumption recovered somewhat. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned toward the higher end, while downstream enterprises negotiated and purchased, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Some suppliers had limited willingness to sell at month-end. Low-priced supplies in other regions were largely cleared out, and quotes in Shenzhen were mostly around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against TD. Today, the market’s premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract remained at a discount of around 30 yuan/kg. Overall, the spot silver market premium has been relatively stable recently, and transactions have recovered somewhat as absolute prices continued to decline. The precious metals futures remain under macro pressure in the short term.