May 19, 2026 key takeaways. Gold’s recent price consolidation does not, in our view, undermine the medium-term case for higher prices Structural support remains intact, with resilient central bank and private investor demand, reflecting broad fiscal uncertainty and currency concerns The key risks to watch would be a shift to more restrictive central bank policies that pushes real yields higher for longer, or a deterioration in passive fund flows We stay constructive on gold, maintain our overweight allocation in portfolios, and keep our 12-month price target at USD 5,400/oz. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold has been one of the defining financial assets of the last 12 months. Yet after a strong performance, especially in the second half of 2025, prices have stalled. Momentum has cooled, and the metal has at times lagged what investors might have expected from a haven asset during a period of geopolitical stress. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce before declining in the wake of the Middle East conflict to a trough of USD 4,099/oz in mid-March, most recently reaching USD 4,560/oz. In contrast to comparable periods of geopolitical tension – such as the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the first and second Gulf Wars, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – gold has seen a larger drawdown with much higher levels of volatility. It has fallen by over 10% since the conflict began. We believe this reflects market concerns over inflation and crowded investor positioning at the start of 2026. As a non-yielding asset, gold performs best when real yields decline and the US dollar depreciates. However, an energy supply shock can have the opposite effect, resulting in markets pricing higher central bank rate expectations, higher yields and a firmer US dollar. It is therefore unsurprising that gold has shown a strong negative relationship with rising energy prices. If the Middle East conflict de-escalates and energy prices fall, in line with our base scenario, gold could recover, supported by some normalising of previously high investor positioning. Gold prices more than doubled in the year to January 2026, reaching a record USD 5,595 per ounce… Still, the Middle East conflict is not the only variable for prices. The medium-term outlook is also determined by whether demand and the broader geopolitical and fundamental macroeconomic environment have changed. Here, we do not see a shift and therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz, and our overweight allocation in portfolios. To understand gold’s recent loss of momentum, it helps to separate structural from short-term drivers. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient. This explains how short-term headwinds – including a stronger dollar and higher bond yields – can create temporary weakness without undermining longer-run demand. In other words, slowing momentum should not be mistaken for a structural reversal. Structural incentives to hold gold The most compelling structural case for gold lies in incentives for investors, private and public, to hold a real asset. Yet unlike most currencies, where supply can expand due to monetary and fiscal easing, gold supply has been stable through history: industry estimates suggest some 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout history, with new mine output adding just over 1% to above-ground stocks each year . Moreover, unlike currencies, gold is not subject to financial sanctions. US sanctions on Russia accelerated central banks’ desire to hold reserve assets such as gold that are insulated from such threats while preserving value. As more countries gradually diversify away from use of the US dollar and settle trade in other currencies, demand for neutral reserve assets such as gold rises. At the structural level, demand from both central banks and private investors remains resilient At the same time, lower confidence in some currencies has supported private investor demand, especially as gold helps portfolio diversification. Persistent fiscal uncertainty and still-high inflation reinforce this trend. When investors question the long-term path of public debt, the capacity to finance deficits, or policy credibility, demand for diversified assets increases. In this environment, gold can provide a hedge against risks that are hard to manage – including inflation surprises, poor management of government finances that ends up constraining monetary policy, or declining confidence in institutions. The price of gold, for example, has recently correlated with fears around the Federal Reserve’s independence. Persistent demand trends contribute to price appreciation Over the past decade, there has been a strong link between total gold volumes bought by both private investors and central banks, and real gold prices. Approximately 400 metric tonnes of quarterly demand is consistent with price stability, with every additional 100 tonnes associated with roughly a three-percentage-point rise in quarterly prices. Since 2023, demand has averaged about 620 tonnes a quarter, well above the 450-tonne average between 2010 and 2022. Despite concerns about weaker demand this year, World Gold Council data shows total demand of 790 tonnes over the first quarter of 2026, of which central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes, a 3% increase year on year. Private demand was roughly in line with 2025’s average. Lower ETF flows were offset by higher demand for physical gold, with China accounting for 40% of the total. Central banks can create a higher ‘floor’ From 1980 to 2005, central banks reduced their gold reserves, and that trend accelerated after the Cold War with globalisation, and US security guarantees for allies. However, recent years have re-set international relations, and central banks have rapidly increased their gold purchases . The rationale is straightforward: reserve managers’ gold purchases reflect concerns about US financial sanctions, broader geopolitical uncertainty, and unpredictable trade policies. The share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers While demand has been strongest in emerging countries, a structurally higher baseline of purchases by central banks across many countries can reduce the depth and duration of any price falls, particularly if private investor flows become volatile. Importantly, the share of gold in overall reserves held by emerging market central banks is still less than their developed market peers, suggesting more room for buying. As a result, such demand is likely to remain. Recently, some emerging market countries, such as Turkey, have sold or swapped gold reserves to manage currency depreciation pressures exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East. We see such moves as exceptions to the broader trend of purchases in countries with free-floating exchange rates. Real yields and monetary credibility The outlook for interest rates and their impact on private investor flows will be another key factor for gold prices. Gold is sensitive to real yields: when they fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, supporting prices. This link has re-asserted itself in recent months. In principle, a more restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy could weigh on gold prices if it resulted in persistently higher real yields. However, we see this risk as limited. The Fed is likely to keep policy rates on hold for much of 2026, with any rate cut more likely towards the end of the year. Rate moves matter for investor flows into the gold market. Physically-backed ETFs, which allow investors to gain exposure to gold without owning the metal, tend to be sensitive to rate expectations. Even after strong inflows, total ETF holdings are not back to their historical highs. Broadly stable flows would support demand. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12‑month price target of USD 5,400/oz The structural case remains intact We do not expect the recent gold price consolidation to alter its medium-term trajectory. Cooling investor sentiment does not undermine the structural case for gold, but instead shifts focus back to slower-moving drivers including central bank demand, portfolio allocation and fiscal uncertainty. Three factors support this view. First, demand remains resilient despite volatility. Second, the macro context still favours real assets amid fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of purchasing power. Third, recent headwinds look short term rather than structural – including higher yields and a stronger US dollar, which we see as temporary. Risks remain. Negative factors to watch would be higher-for-longer real yields, a prolonged decline in ETF demand, or lower physical demand, for example for jewellery, even if that were partly offset by central bank buying. We therefore remain constructive on gold, maintaining our overweight allocation and our 12-month price target of USD 5,400/oz. Our structural case for the precious metal rests on resilient demand, fiscal uncertainty and the gradual erosion of US dollar purchasing power. Source： https://www.lombardodier.com/insights/2026/may/gold-s-slowdown.html

Benefiting from both rising gold prices and increasing volumes, Zijin Mining delivered a stellar report card. In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 98.5 billion yuan, up 24.79% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 20.1 billion yuan, surging 97.50% YoY, nearly doubling; total profit soared 115% YoY to 31.6 billion yuan, with all core financial metrics hitting record highs across the board. The underlying logic behind the accelerating profitability was clearly identifiable: the historic breakthrough in gold prices served as the most direct catalyst. The unit price of gold ingots jumped from 661.83 yuan/g in the same period last year to 1,089.04 yuan/g, a gain of over 64%, and the gross margin of mine-produced gold expanded from 52.91% to 69.60%; silver prices also surged in tandem, soaring from 5.50 yuan/g to 15.33 yuan/g, with the gross margin of mine-produced silver leaping to a remarkable 85.59%. The company's overall mine enterprise gross margin rose from 59.94% to 71.01%, and the comprehensive gross margin also climbed from 22.89% to 36.33%, with the price dividend fully realized. Meanwhile, the rise of the lithium segment was reshaping the company's profit structure. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt in Q1, compared to only 1,376 mt in the same period last year, up over 10 times YoY, with an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin as high as 61.44%. The company expects full-year 2026 lithium carbonate production to reach 120,000 mt, and plans to increase it to 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will rank among the world's largest lithium ore producers. The lithium business is evolving from a marginal increment to a core profit engine. Gold Prices Exceeded Expectations, with the Gold Segment Contributing Core Profits Gold was the largest engine of profit growth this quarter. The company's mines produced 23,497 kg of gold, up 23% YoY, benefiting not only from volume growth but also from a price tailwind. The average price of gold ingots reached 1,089.04 yuan/g, and the average price of gold concentrates reached 1,010.55 yuan/g, up approximately 65% and 64% YoY, respectively. The sources of incremental growth also warranted attention. Zijin Gold International's newly acquired Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and Ridgold Polymetallic Mine in Kazakhstan, acquired in 2025, had begun contributing production, with the benefits of external M&A gradually being released. Under the resonance of high gold prices and volume growth, the gross margin of mine-produced gold business surged significantly: the gold ingot gross margin rose from 52.91% to 69.60%, and the gold concentrates gross margin climbed from 71.05% to 80.89%, delivering a notable boost to overall profits. Copper: Kamoa-Kakula Production Cuts Dragged Down Output, While Other Mines Advanced Steadily The copper segment produced 259,214 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1, down from 287,571 mt in the same period last year, primarily due to a sharp decline in equity production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine — plunging from 59,163 mt in the same period last year to 27,361 mt, a drop of over 50%. Excluding this disruption, the company's other copper mines all advanced in an orderly manner as planned. Of particular note was the Julong Copper Mine Phase II, which was officially commissioned in late January 2026 and contributed 60,000 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1. The capacity was still in the ramp-up stage, with further incremental output expected going forward. Rising copper prices also effectively offset the volume pressure. The average price of copper concentrates rose from 60,179 yuan/mt to 81,543 yuan/mt, with the gross margin further improving from 65.05% to 70.84%; the gross margins of electrodeposition copper and copper cathode also expanded to 61.61% and 56.20%, respectively. The smelting copper business had a gross margin of only 0.32% due to thin processing profits, but scale effects still enabled it to contribute a considerable absolute profit amount. Lithium Segment: A Leap from Zero to One, Targeting the World's Largest by 2028 The lithium business was the segment with the most dramatic changes in this quarterly report. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt (with Q1 sales of 13,329 mt), achieving an order-of-magnitude expansion from the base of 1,376 mt in the same period last year, driven by the capacity ramp-up following the successive commissioning of multiple projects including the 3Q Salt Lake lithium mine, the Lagocuo Salt Lake lithium mine, and the Xiangyuan hard-rock lithium mine. Profitability was equally impressive — lithium carbonate had an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin of 61.44%, second only to silver and ranking as the second highest among all products, reflecting the inherent cost advantages of salt lake lithium resources. In stark contrast, the lithium carbonate gross margin in Q4 last year was only 24.59%, surging nearly 37 percentage points within just one quarter, benefiting from both improved product mix and a cyclical recovery in lithium prices. Of greater strategic significance was the long-term plan: the main mining and processing workflow of the Manono lithium mine northeast project had been fully connected, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in June this year; the company plans to achieve lithium carbonate equivalent production of 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will become one of the world's largest lithium ore producers. Management has explicitly positioned the lithium segment as the "third pillar" core profit source after copper and gold. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Ample Ammunition, Strong Foundation for Expansion Financial structure side, total assets reached 549.9 billion yuan at the end of Q1, up 7.41% from the beginning of the year; the cash and bank balance was 99.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 33.8 billion yuan from 65.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 90.3 billion yuan at period-end. The ample cash reserves provided sufficient ammunition for the company to pursue global mine M&A opportunities and fund capital expenditures on projects under construction. Net assets side, equity attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 200.4 billion yuan, up 8.02% from the beginning of the year; the weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 10.35%, up 3.23 percentage points from 7.12% in the same period last year, with capital return efficiency continuing to improve. The liability side saw some expansion, with short-term borrowings increasing from 32.3 billion yuan to 41.2 billion yuan, bonds payable rising from 47.4 billion yuan to 56.3 billion yuan, and total liabilities amounting to 282.5 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 21.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, primarily to support project construction and capacity expansion. Although the absolute scale of debt rose, the company's debt-servicing capacity was not under pressure given the significant improvement in operating cash flow, with the asset-liability ratio at approximately 51.4%, remaining well under control overall.

Gold has experienced a noticeable setback in recent weeks, even though the macroeconomic environment could have provided support for the precious metal at first glance.

Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261

Gold prices fall due to interest rate gloom and Middle East tensions. US Fed and major central banks likely to maintain current interest rates. Long-term gold outlook positive, seen as a hedge against risks.

Right now the price of gold sits around $5,100 an ounce, which is double where it sat just over one year ago. And the war in Iran could propel the price upwards even further.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

Gold surged during the 12-day war with Iran last year and then gave up its gains when a ceasefire was announced. But, two weeks into the latest conflict, its price remains largely unmoved.

Geopolitical tensions, and concerns about fiscal policy and central banks, have driven the gold price to where it is today.

Precious metals are having a moment. Gold and silver surged to record highs in January, benefiting from an alignment of macroeconomic factors, evolving supply-demand dynamics, and renewed industrial demand.