SMM News, May 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.3%. SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead fell 0.15%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.52%. SHFE tin gained 1.37%. SHFE nickel declined 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.26%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 5.08%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.83%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.53%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.82%, rebar fell 1.99%, hot-rolled coil declined 1.81%, and stainless steel edged down 0.03%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 6.05%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.54%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper gained 0.26%. LME aluminum edged up. LME lead rose 0.1%. LME zinc climbed 0.75%. LME tin rose 1.3%. LME nickel fell 1.09%. Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.46%, and COMEX silver gained 1.4%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract edged up 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dipped 0.02%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 0.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.41%, closing at 2,931.5 points. As of 11:45 on May 26, midday futures performance (selected): Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,010 yuan/mt, down 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,900 yuan/mt, down 745 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a four-consecutive-day increase and resumed declining today... Macro Front China: [MOFCOM: China will attract more multinational companies to locate R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 2026 Qingdao Summit of Multinational Corporation Leaders. Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong stated that China will optimize the investment structure and activate new momentum for foreign investment. The Ministry of Commerce issued and implemented the 2025 edition of the *Catalogue of Industries for Encouraging Foreign Investment*, with a net increase of 205 encouraged categories, focusing on areas such as advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy conservation and environmental protection, providing policy support for foreign-invested enterprises to expand into high-end and emerging fields. Going forward, more multinational companies will be attracted to place their R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China, optimizing the structure of foreign investment in China and strengthening innovation momentum. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the *Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market*. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. Departments including the Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Municipal Housing Provident Fund Center have issued supporting detailed rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "selling old and buying new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching the "Huadu Eight Measures" as specific initiatives. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. It is believed that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors work in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and the Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document *Implementation Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Provisional)*. It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks, removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," and allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible provident fund loan amount is not enough to fully repay the principal and interest of the original commercial loan may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for opening an account and accumulating housing provident fund contributions was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." The restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the mortgaged property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," and supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who have "never used or have only used housing provident fund loans once" are also eligible for the commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion, and are no longer restricted by the "never used housing provident fund loans" requirement. (Jin10 Data) [Xiongan New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Raised to 800,000 Yuan] The Xiongan New Area Housing Management Center issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting housing provident fund withdrawal and loan policies. According to the notice, for contributing employees who meet the rental withdrawal conditions in the new area but have not filed their housing rental contracts, the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 17,000 yuan; for those who have filed their housing rental contracts via the "Hebei Xiongan New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform," the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 25,000 yuan. For contributing employees who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount has been raised to 800,000 yuan. For employees of Beijing-relocated entities whose housing provident fund contributions are based in the new area and who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount has been raised to 1.2 million yuan. For multi-child families with two or more children who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount is increased by 200,000 yuan. Employee families who have only one fully repaid housing provident fund loan record nationwide and own no property in the new area are eligible for the first-home housing provident fund loan policy. (Xiongan Provident Fund) [PBOC's Reverse Repo Operations Result in a Net Injection of 248.5 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 249 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, this resulted in a net injection of 248.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.05. US Secretary of State Rubio, who concluded his visit to India, today (May 26) commented to the media on the so-called "self-defensive strikes" carried out by US forces this morning across multiple locations in southern Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open, no matter what." Rubio said, "The (Hormuz) Strait must be open; it will eventually open in some way; it must be open." He also stated that the agreement expected to be reached with Iran may still require "a few more days" of negotiations over wording. (CCTV International News) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo emphasized that timely policy adjustments were crucial for maintaining market participants' confidence amid the recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds. Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday: "Regarding monetary policy and long-term interest rates, we believe it is very important to adjust the degree of monetary easing at an appropriate pace in response to future economic, price, and financial conditions, thereby maintaining market confidence that inflation will be properly controlled." The remarks appeared to suggest that the BOJ was open to raising interest rates in the near term. Himino Ryozo and other officials, including BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo, recently emphasized the need to maintain a responsible attitude toward financial markets, and the market widely expected the BOJ to raise interest rates at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae last week subtly released signals that she hoped the BOJ would maintain policy stability, as she was trying to mitigate the economic impact of the Iran war. Himino Ryozo said: "The BOJ will strive to implement policy appropriately to maintain such market confidence and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner." (Jin Shi Data) DBS Group Research FX strategist Philip Wee said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was very likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, but the overall stance would be hawkish. "The RBNZ may prioritize above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment." Wee also said that a rate hike on Wednesday could not be ruled out, and therefore NZD/USD was expected to return to the upper half of this year's 0.5700–0.6100 trading range. (Jin Shi Data) Data: Data to be released today include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA House Price Index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (non-seasonally adjusted), US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and US May Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to Xiaomi Group's earnings call. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in the two markets diverged, with WTI down 5.33% and Brent up 1.62%. The notable divergence between the two reflected a high degree of uncertainty in the market's assessment of the situation. (Wallstreetcn) US Central Command said the US and Israel struck multiple Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after Trump said negotiations with Tehran on an interim deal were making progress. The renewed fighting underscores the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market is closely watching strikes that could derail negotiations. (Jin10 Data) According to Al Arabiya, a draft US-Iran agreement has been reached. The draft allows free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of mines; navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored within 30 days. The agreement stipulates that the US commits to easing the blockade on Iranian ports; the agreement allows Iran to sell and export oil; the agreement will provide specific sanctions exemptions for Iranian oil exports, and will consider easing sanctions on Iranian oil in phases, depending on Iran's implementation of its commitments. The agreement provides for continued nuclear negotiations to reach a long-term consensus. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 26 News: Metals Market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper was up 0.39%. SHFE aluminum was down 0.29%, and SHFE lead was down 0.27%. SHFE zinc was up 0.62%. SHFE tin was up 0.52%. SHFE nickel was up 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract was up 4.82%, while the most-traded casting aluminum continuous contract was down 0.26%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was down 0.94%, stainless steel was up 0.13%, rebar was down 0.75%, and hot-rolled coil was down 0.73%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract was up 9.05%, and the most-traded coke futures contract was up 5.04%. Overseas metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold was up 1.11%, and COMEX silver was up 2.89%. Overnight, SHFE gold continuous contract was up 0.71%, and SHFE silver continuous contract was up 1.62%. UBS Group analyst Staunovo Giovanni noted: "Currently, financial asset movements are heavily influenced by oil prices, and gold is naturally no exception." Staunovo further explained: "Falling oil prices are bullish for gold, as the market expects lower oil prices to impact the US Fed's monetary policy." He added that this trend is expected to continue in the near term. (Jin10 Data) As of 7:17 AM on May 26, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: As of End of April, China's Cumulative Installed Power Generation Capacity Reached 3.99 Billion kW, Up 14.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-April. As of the end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.99 billion kW, up 14.2% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.25 billion kW, up 26.2% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.0% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 925 hours, down 84 hours from the same period last year. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.34% to 98.98. The US dollar and oil prices pulled back as the market hoped for a peace deal to end the Iran conflict, easing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates "staying high for longer." Despite both the US and Iran downplaying the likelihood of a near-term deal, market sentiment remained optimistic. Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) BlackRock stated that under new US Fed Chair Warsh's leadership, the US Fed may have sufficient reason to support an interest rate cut rather than a hike. Navin Saigal, BlackRock's Asia-Pacific head of global fixed income, responded to a question about the probability of a rate hike under Warsh's tenure: "If I had to choose between a hike and a cut, I think there are actually ample factors to support a cut." "Looking ahead, the labour market is expected to face some pressure, which may signal that the US Fed will either hold steady or cut interest rates." Saigal's remarks contrasted with the prevailing expectations of bond investors, who bet that Warsh would prioritize safeguarding the US Fed's credibility in fighting inflation over accommodating US President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Current pricing shows the market is nearly certain the US Fed will raise interest rates before December. On the macro front: Data to be released today include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted home price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and US May Dallas Fed business activity index. In addition, attention should be paid to: Xiaomi Group's earnings call. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell sharply, with WTI crude down 6.52% and Brent crude down 6.56%. Rising expectations of US-Iran peace talks drove crude oil prices sharply lower. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media on Monday the 25th that negotiations with Iran were progressing well, emphasizing that either "a great and meaningful deal" would be reached with Iran, or "there would be no deal." According to CCTV News, an Iranian delegation appeared in Qatar on Monday the 25th, including senior members of Tehran's negotiating team, which was viewed by the US side as a positive signal. Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds noted that US crude oil inventories were declining at an unprecedented pace, highlighting the importance of a US-Iran deal this weekend for global markets. However, both the US and Iran remained cautious about the prospects for a deal. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that many issues in the potential bilateral memorandum had reached preliminary conclusions, but this did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 23: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly rise. SHFE copper rose 0.58%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%. SHFE zinc fell 0.16%. SHFE tin rose 1.09%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.77%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.06%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 792.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar edged down 0.09%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal continued to fall for the third consecutive trading day, down 1.45%, and coke fell 0.95%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals market saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper rose 0.18%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc edged up 0.06%. LME tin rose 1.16%. LME nickel rose 0.67%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.7%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 1.13% weekly drop; COMEX silver fell 1.06%, falling for two consecutive weeks with a 2.1% weekly drop. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.1%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 2.13% weekly drop; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.51%, but SHFE silver fell for two consecutive weeks with a 7.81% weekly drop. As of 8:31 am on May 23, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: 600 billion yuan MLF operation to be conducted on May 25] PBOC: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a maturity of 1 year. [CSRC: Crackdown on illegal cross-border securities business; investors' property safety unaffected by the rectification] Xinhua News Agency reported that recently, with the approval of the State Council, the CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Rectification of Illegal Cross-border Securities, Futures, and Fund Business Activities." Regarding this rectification, all parties are highly concerned about how the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors will be protected. In this regard, the plan emphasized that investors' property safety will not be affected by the rectification. A CSRC official said the plan specified numerous measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors. For example, a 2-year concentrated rectification period will be set to phase out relevant domestic services of overseas institutions. Overseas institutions are required to properly communicate with investors affected by rectification measures in China and arrange account disposal to ensure client property safety. [Hong Kong SFC: Enhanced measures to address forged documents and money laundering risks and raise account opening standards] The Hong Kong SFC issued a circular on May 22, setting out the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining customer relationships. The circular was issued following the SFC's review of account opening practices at 12 securities brokerages. The review identified multiple significant deficiencies, including inadequate due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with ex-China intermediaries. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.32. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up 0.04% for the week. The 17th Fed Chairman Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday. Warsh stated: "The Fed's mission is to promote price stability and full employment." He said, "When these goals are pursued with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, economic growth can be stronger, real take-home wages can be higher, America can be more prosperous, and just as importantly, America's standing in the world can be more secure." He added: "To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform-oriented Fed that learns from past successes and mistakes, breaking free from static frameworks and models while adhering to clear standards of integrity and performance." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks put US Treasury prices under pressure, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026. The most significant policy signal on Friday came from Fed Governor Waller. On Friday local time, Fed Governor Waller stated that as the energy shock from the Iran war pushes up prices, he supports making it clear that the Fed's next rate move is as likely to be a hike as an interest rate cut. Waller said his current stance is to remain patient and keep rates unchanged until the impact of the war becomes clearer, but he warned on Friday that he does not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Waller's remarks were released almost simultaneously with the swearing-in of new Fed Chairman Warsh. The interest rate environment Warsh currently faces is notably more hawkish than the Fed's internal dot plot expectations. (Wall Street CN) "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that there were several key moments during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House: ① Trump asked Warsh to be "completely independent." Trump said, "(I hope he) doesn't look at me, doesn't look at anybody." ② Just two minutes later, Trump offered some "suggestions" indicating the economic direction he hoped to see: "Strong economic growth doesn't need to be cooled down," "Economic growth does not mean inflation," and "I want the economy to boom to unprecedented levels, because there is indeed some debt to deal with." ③ Trump hinted that the US Fed's decision-making body would "converge." He said other Fed policymakers "will make their own decisions, but they will listen to Kevin throughout," even those "whose positions are slightly different." ④ Warsh referenced Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh recalled the historical scene of Greenspan being sworn in at the White House in 1987, and pledged to "begin work with abundant energy and a sense of mission, just as Chairman Greenspan did." He made no mention of former Chairman Bernanke, with whom he had worked for five years during his previous tenure as a governor. (Jin10 Data) In addition, affected by the Iran war, the US consumer confidence index in May fell to a historic low, and long-term inflation expectations also deteriorated significantly. Data showed that the University of Michigan's final reading of the May consumer confidence index dropped to 44.8, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from 3.5% in April and hitting a seven-month high. They also expected prices to rise 4.8% over the next year. Gasoline prices continued to hover near their highest levels since 2022, exacerbating Americans' concerns about rising living costs and the failure to reach a deal to end the war. The impact of inflation on household budgets, particularly for low-income consumers, poses risks to the future consumption outlook. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, stated: "Cost of living concerns remain the top issue on people's minds, with 57% of respondents spontaneously citing that high prices are eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month." She stated: "The key point is that consumers appear worried that inflation will not only spread beyond fuel prices to other areas, but that this upward trend could persist well into the future." (Jin10 Data) Regarding other currencies: ECB President Lagarde stated that despite the deepening impact of the Iran conflict, long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the 2% target. Although the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and dragging down the economy, long-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored overall. The impact of this conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect transmission effects. (Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told him during their meeting on Friday that she hoped the BOJ would adopt appropriate policies, taking into account the government's price measures. Ueda Kazuo told reporters after the meeting with Takaichi Sanae at the Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo that it was a routine meeting between the two and that no specific details of monetary policy were discussed. (Wall Street Journal) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, US May Dallas Fed business activity index, Australia April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision through May 27, Switzerland May ZEW investor confidence index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Eurozone May industrial confidence index, Eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, US April durable goods orders MoM, US April new home sales annualized, Japan April unemployment rate, France May CPI MoM preliminary, France Q1 GDP YoY final, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany May CPI MoM preliminary, Canada March GDP MoM, US May Chicago PMI, and China May official manufacturing PMI. In addition, other events to watch this week include: 500 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo maturing today; BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breeman holding a monetary policy press conference; the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; and US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and trading of US equity and Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with Southbound and Northbound trading suspended. The South Korean stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) The overseas market exchange closure schedule is as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: Both oil futures rose during the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 1.62%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 3.98% for the week, and Brent futures declined 4.59% for the week. Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April this year, US-Iran negotiations have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in sight. Although a draft reportedly "close to being finalized" has been emerging, four core obstacles still stand in the way of lasting peace. According to Bloomberg, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions currently constitute the four core points of divergence in the negotiations. For investors, this war has plunged global energy markets into severe turbulence, and any progress or breakdown in negotiations will have an impact on commodity prices. (Wallstreetcn) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 22 that it was premature to say a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as significant differences remained between the two sides. According to Iranian media reports on May 22, Baghaei, commenting on the visit of senior Pakistani officials to Tehran, said it indicated that the current situation had entered a "turning point or decisive stage." He mentioned that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir had visited Tehran and that related communications were still ongoing. When asked whether this meant a change in the negotiation process, Baghaei said it could not be said that a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as there were serious and wide-ranging differences between the US and Iran, and "diplomacy is a time-consuming process." Baghaei added that one should not expect to see results within weeks or months through several rounds of back-and-forth consultations. He emphasized that diplomatic negotiations are inherently a long-term process, and both sides are utilizing various opportunities to convey their respective positions. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week. The total US oil rig count for the week ending May 22 was 425, compared to the previous reading of 415. In addition, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company reported that Q1 oil production fell 12% YoY to 5.6 million mt. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg, affected by the Iran war, the national average gasoline price in the US has surpassed $4.5 per gallon, with California exceeding $6. Despite high prices, consumers have not significantly reduced fuel purchases. For most Americans, driving to work and picking up children are daily necessities. Gasoline spending is nearly impossible to cut, and consumers can only reduce discretionary spending to balance their budgets. Philadelphia resident Avarisse Crawford said she has cut entertainment expenses, replacing steak dinners and bar outings with free park activities. The ongoing Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered global crude oil transportation, and US gasoline inventory has fallen to its lowest level for the same period since 2014. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit a seasonal historic low by the end of August. Facing persistently climbing oil prices, the Trump administration has successively released strategic petroleum reserves, waived the Jones Act, and discussed implementing a federal gasoline tax holiday, but the effects remain unclear. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer travel season, upward demand pressure is expected to further strain already tight inventories. (Wallstreetcn) Recommended Reading:

Next Monday, the LME will be closed for one day due to the Spring Bank Holiday, while the NYSE and CME will also be closed for holidays, and Malaysia will have a one-day holiday on May 27 for Hari Raya Haji. On the macroeconomic data front, key releases are about to be published, including the US April core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the revised US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, and the US April personal spending month-on-month rate. Additionally, the US and Russian presidents visited China successively recently, improving expectations for dialogue and cooperation among major powers, and easing market risk-aversion sentiment. LME lead side, ex-China LME lead inventory unexpectedly surged by over 20,000 mt this week, but LME lead Cash-3M backwardation rose to $22.55/mt, with the trend diverging from inventory. The tight supply of high-grade lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market has not yet eased, while Australian lead-zinc smelters are ramping up production. With both bullish and bearish factors coexisting in the market, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at highs. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,970-2,030/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the recent decline in lead prices brought some downstream buy-the-dip stocking demand, and combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after probing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to a discount (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is putting pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,500-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,400-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in an off-season pattern, with downstream enterprises' rigid demand still limited. Combined with the rebound in lead prices, downstream enterprises have become more cautious in procurement. Supply side, production at both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is stable to slightly higher. Among them, secondary lead losses have begun to narrow, market circulating supply has increased, and the probability of spot lead transactions shifting to a discount is growing (against SMM #1 lead).

[Silicon Metal Prices Shift to Move Sideways, Attention on Operating Rate Changes on Both Supply and Demand Sides]: At the beginning of the week, spot silicon metal prices edged lower in a narrow range before shifting to move sideways. As of May 21, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. The futures market center shifted lower WoW. On Thursday, the most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,440 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt WoW, with open interest at 308,000 lots, a WoW decrease of 7,000 lots. In terms of market transactions, as futures weakened at the beginning of the week, some downstream buyers and traders increased their rigid demand purchases, and the market transaction center moved lower WoW. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand of silicon metal are expected to increase in June. Supply side, the main driver is the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season. Demand side, the main factor is production resumption expectations of individual polysilicon enterprises.

According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the foreign market producer price index (F-PPI) for Turkey’s basic metal manufacturing industry increased by 3.31% month-on-month in April 2026. This monthly rise contributed to a substantial 34.02% year-on-year surge compared to April 2025, while the twelve-month moving average index advanced by 34.33%. Across all industrial sectors, the overall F-PPI climbed by 2.27% month-on-month and 31.75% year-on-year. The market impact indicates that high domestic energy tariffs, fluctuating currency pressures, and persistent core inflation continue to elevate input costs for Turkish mills, forcing them to lift their export offer prices to preserve margins.

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.

The National Economy Maintained Steady Progress in January–April In January–April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience was further demonstrated, employment and prices remained generally stable, new momentum grew stronger, and high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions. I. Industrial Production Grew Rapidly, with Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Growing at a Faster Pace In January–April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7 percentage points faster than the overall value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY and 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business activity expectations index of enterprises was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. In January–March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. II. The Service Sector Grew Steadily, with Modern Services Developing Well In January–April, the national service sector production index grew 4.9% YoY. By industry, the production indices of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and the financial industry grew 10.9%, 9.3%, and 6.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the national service sector production index grew 4.3% YoY. In January–March, the operating revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% YoY. In April, the business activity index of the service sector was 49.6%; the business activity expectations index of the service sector was 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, industries such as railway transport, postal services, and telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services had business activity indices in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%. III. Market Sales Scale Expanded, Service Retail Growth Accelerated From January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,494.1 billion yuan, up 1.9% YoY. By location of business units, urban consumer goods retail sales were 14,292.1 billion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; rural consumer goods retail sales were 2,202 billion yuan, up 2.8%. By consumption type, commodity retail sales were 14,605.8 billion yuan, up 1.7%; catering revenue was 1,888.3 billion yuan, up 3.8%. Sales of basic living necessities and some upgraded goods grew relatively fast, with retail sales of grain, oil and food, clothing, footwear, hats, knitwear and textiles, and communication equipment by units above the designated size up 8.6%, 8.1%, and 17.7% YoY respectively. In April, total retail sales of consumer goods were up 0.2% YoY and down 0.48% MoM. From January to April, service retail sales were up 5.6% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared with January to March. Among them, retail sales of communication and information services, tourism, consulting and rental services, culture, sports and leisure services, and transportation services grew relatively fast. From January to April, national online retail sales of goods and services reached 6,530.8 billion yuan, up 6.6% YoY. Of this, online goods retail sales were 4,118.5 billion yuan, up 5.7%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales of consumer goods; online service retail sales were 2,412.3 billion yuan, up 8.3%. IV. Fixed Asset Investment Declined YoY, High-Tech Industry Investment Grew Relatively Fast From January to April, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 14,129.3 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment grew 1.3%. Of this, intellectual property product investment was up 8.9% YoY. By sector, infrastructure investment was up 4.3% YoY, manufacturing investment up 1.2%, and real estate development investment down 13.7%. The floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold nationwide was 252.58 million m², down 10.2% YoY; sales revenue of newly built commercial buildings was 2,300 billion yuan, down 14.6%. By industry, primary industry investment was up 10.1% YoY, secondary industry investment up 2.5%, and tertiary industry investment down 4.2%. Private investment was down 5.2% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, private investment was down 1.9%. High-tech industry investment was up 6.1% YoY, of which investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew 17.9%, 13.9%, and 18.1% respectively. In April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declined 2.36% MoM. V. Goods Imports and Exports Grew Rapidly, Trade Structure Continued to Optimize In January-April, total goods imports and exports reached 16,225.2 billion yuan, up 14.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 9,328 billion yuan, up 11.3%; imports were 6,897.2 billion yuan, up 20.0%. Ordinary Trade imports and exports grew 8.5% YoY. Imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.5%. Private enterprise imports and exports grew 15.9%. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew 17.6%. In April, total goods imports and exports were 4,377.8 billion yuan, up 14.2% YoY. Of this, exports were 2,481.7 billion yuan, up 9.8%; imports were 1,896 billion yuan, up 20.6%. VI. Employment Situation Remained Generally Stable, Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined In January-April, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. In April, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for local household registration labor force was 5.3%; the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force was 5.0%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force with agricultural household registration was 5.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of employed persons in enterprises nationwide was 48 hours. VII. Consumer Prices Saw a Mild Rebound, Producer Prices Saw Expanded Gains In January-April, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% YoY. By category, prices of food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out rose 0.2% YoY, clothing prices rose 1.7%, housing prices fell 0.2%, household goods and services prices rose 2.0%, transportation and communication prices rose 0.3%, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.1%, healthcare prices rose 1.9%, and other goods and services prices rose 13.3%. Among food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out prices, pork prices fell 12.2%, grain prices fell 0.3%, fresh fruit prices rose 3.0%, and fresh vegetable prices rose 5.7%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 1.2% YoY, with the increase expanding 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; up 0.3% MoM. In January-April, the national ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose 0.2% YoY. Of this, in April, ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; up 1.7% MoM. From January to April, the national industrial producer purchase price increased 0.5% YoY. Of which, April was up 3.5% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.7 percentage points from the previous month; up 2.1% MoM. Overall, from January to April, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with high-quality development advancing solidly. However, it should be noted that the external environment remains complex and volatile, the domestic imbalance of strong supply and weak demand remains prominent, some enterprises face operational difficulties, and the foundation for steady and positive economic development still needs to be consolidated. In the next phase, it is necessary to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, precisely and effectively implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies, continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance incremental growth and revitalize existing assets, strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic development, further strengthen the domestic circulation, optimize the domestic-international dual circulation, and promote sustained and healthy economic development. Recommended reading:

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[Bulls Cut Open Interest, Silicon Metal Prices Weakened; Polysilicon Prices Remained Stable Overall]: Spot prices were mostly stable this week, with prices of certain silicon grades edging down slightly. As of May 14, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Futures market sentiment cooled. In terms of total open interest, it began to decline sharply from Tuesday as funds took profits and exited, causing futures prices to pull back. On Thursday (May 14), total open interest in silicon metal stood at 450,000 lots, down 85,000 lots or 16% from Monday. The most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,655 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 455 yuan/mt or 5% from Monday, as the silicon market returned to fundamentals-driven logic. Transaction side, downstream users showed strong wait-and-see sentiment amid the price fluctuations, with transactions mainly driven by rigid restocking demand.