June 21, 2026 As of June 19, 2026, by Florian Grummes While the start of spring on March 23 initially sparked a broad recovery in the price of silver and even led to a surprising peak of $89.36, silver prices have come under significant pressure again since May 13. It wasn’t until a sell-off low of $61.50 that a strong—though so far short-lived—rally to $71.55 began last week. Since Wednesday evening, however, precious metal prices have once again come under heavy selling pressure. The trigger was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which caused a sharp pullback in precious metal prices. The open price gap at $68.35 was quickly closed, after which the silver price fell further to $63.28. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the previous recovery has already been lost. Since the beginning of the year, silver has also posted a decline of about 10%. Compared to the price of gold, however, silver has proven somewhat more stable and has so far managed to narrowly hold above its March low of around $61. Interest Rate Shock Following Leadership Change at the Fed The already challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is now facing additional headwinds from monetary policy. At its June 17, 2026, meeting, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, left key interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, but at the same time signaled that, from the central bank’s perspective, inflation remains significantly too high. This has brought the possibility of a more restrictive monetary policy more sharply into the markets’ focus, as several Fed policymakers consider an interest rate hike possible this year. For precious metals, this is a rather negative signal, as a great many market participants remain heavily focused on U.S. monetary policy. Higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and a stronger dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset like silver, thereby limiting its upside potential. Price Declines Following a Change in Leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve © Barclays, Bloomberg Statistically speaking, a change in leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve is often followed by significant price declines in the stock and financial markets during the first three months, as market participants must first reassess the monetary policy stance and reaction patterns. At the same time, decision-making processes and communication practices take time to establish themselves, which can lead to increased volatility and cautious positioning in the markets in the short term. Of particular importance this time is the shift in communication at the top of the central bank. Under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, the previous practice of providing advance notice regarding the future path of interest rates has largely been discontinued, which could further increase uncertainty in the markets. Warsh intends to place a strong emphasis on combating inflation, a move that many market participants immediately interpreted as a signal of tighter monetary policy. Restrictive Monetary Policy Weighs on the Markets Instead of the previously hoped-for interest rate cuts, there are now increasing signs of possible rate hikes, which makes stocks less attractive, as higher interest rates increase financing costs and cause future earnings to be discounted more heavily. This uncertainty led to a significant decline in the S&P 500, with other indices also posting losses. In addition, Warsh’s first press conference reinforced the impression of a shift in policy within the Fed, causing investors to become more cautious for the time being and potentially withdraw capital from riskier investments. This underscores how sensitively the markets react to changes in monetary policy and how those changes are communicated. Real Economy and Industry Are Weakening In addition to monetary policy, the real economy is also sending mixed signals. Weak data from the freight and trucking sectors suggest that industrial activity is losing momentum, which is particularly relevant for silver given its heavy industrial use. Unlike gold, silver is not only a monetary store of value but also an industrial metal. When the economy loses momentum, this can dampen physical demand and temporarily slow upward price movements. Gold and Central Banks as a Strategic Tailwind 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey © World Gold Council T he same, gold remains the most important benchmark for the price of silver. While gold was able to recover quickly to over $4,380 following the recent correction—only to then plummet to $4,121—strategic demand from central banks remains a strong tailwind for the entire precious metals sector. The Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 shows that, over the past four years, central banks worldwide have accumulated an average of 1,000 metric tons of gold per year—significantly more than in the previous decade. Furthermore, 89 percent of the central banks surveyed expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, while 74 percent anticipate a decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves. This trend does not apply identically to silver, but it provides strong indirect support. When real assets, diversification, and geopolitical hedging gain importance, silver typically benefits as a downstream, more volatile companion to the gold market. Silver in U.S. Dollars – Early Summer Volatility Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 19, 2026. © Gold.de From a technical perspective, the silver price has been moving largely sideways since the first sell-off in early February. However, the series of lower highs underscores the clearly corrective nature of the movement. In the range between approximately $61 and $64, the bulls have so far consistently repelled the bears’ attacks and repeatedly initiated bullish counter-moves. Most recently, silver rebounded last week from $61.50 to Monday’s high of $71.55. This recovery, however, proved short-lived, and silver prices fell back to today’s low of $63.28. As a result, silver is now trading below both its slightly declining 50-day moving average ($79.01) and its still-rising 200-day moving average ($68.24). The 200-day moving average, in particular, should actually stabilize the current sell-off and allow for at least a broader consolidation around the $68 level in the coming weeks. While the weekly stochastic has now reached oversold territory, the momentum oscillator on the daily chart is already pointing downward again. Overall, this paints a picture that can, at best, be interpreted as an early-summer shakeout. In other words, before the summer rally begins, precious metal prices are slowly forming a solid foundation amid erratic and rather weak price action. Once that foundation is laid, a significant recovery should follow in response to the correction that has lasted about four and a half months. In the process, the silver price should then be able to reclaim its 50-day moving average. However, should the stock markets come under pressure and hopes for a de-escalation and continued peace negotiations in the Middle East prove to be illusory, the outlook could darken significantly this summer. In this case, price action on the silver market could also be interpreted as a descending triangle. A break below the $60 to $61 level would confirm this scenario and trigger price targets well below $50. Conclusion: Silver—A Summer Rally Despite an Interest Rate Shock? Silver is currently at a macroeconomic and technical tipping point. In the short term, headwinds dominate: tighter monetary policy, rising real interest rates, and an economic slowdown all argue against a rapid and dynamic upward move. At the same time, the Fed’s policy shift is causing increased uncertainty—a factor that typically draws liquidity away from more cyclical assets like silver. However, two stabilizing forces counter this: a correction that has already been underway for about four and a half months, and increasingly oversold market conditions. Combined with structurally strong demand for gold, this creates an environment that suggests a bottoming-out phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. The support zone around $60 to $61 is therefore crucial. If this support holds, the current period of weakness is likely to turn out to be a classic early-summer bottoming process, from which a recovery toward the 50-day moving average and beyond should become possible as early as midsummer. However, if silver falls sustainably below $60, this would confirm the formation of a descending triangle. In this scenario, the correction would transition into a new downtrend—with price targets well below $50. The coming weeks are therefore likely to be shaped less by trend strength than by decision-making—with an uncomfortably high degree of dependence on geopolitical maneuvers, monetary policy communication, and macroeconomic surprises. Author: Florian Grummes Precious Metals Expert and Technical Analyst www.goldnewsletter.de Source: GOLD.DE

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Next week, with intraday copper prices edging down and combined with pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream dip-buying sentiment recovered somewhat. Purchase and sales sentiment rose 0.04 WoW respectively, with moderate transactions for low-priced cargoes. However, suppliers' early-session offers were firm, with standard-quality copper quoted from parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, subsequently adjusted down to near parity. In the second session, some brands were already quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, reflecting that amid the current copper price decline, suppliers' willingness to sell increased, while downstream buyers' willingness to chase higher prices was insufficient. Overall trading was thin. On balance, pressured by high copper prices, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels next week or edge up slightly.

Jun 05, 2026, 02:40 AM Import duty hike and volatile prices keep Indian gold demand subdued. China premiums narrow as cautious sentiment weighs on physical buying. Analysts warn smuggling risk rises as domestic discounts widen sharply. India’s gold demand remains subdued as buyers stay cautious amid volatile prices and higher import duties, with premiums narrowing in China as well. Analysts warn that regulatory tightening and inflation risks could keep consumption weak through 2026. Domestic gold prices were trading around INR 158,400 per 10 grams on Friday. India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world. Subdued demand in India Indian gold demand has slowed, with buyers hesitant due to volatile prices and elevated import duties, according to a Reuters report . Traders said consumers are reluctant to commit to purchases, particularly after the government raised the import duty to 15% in May, the steepest increase on record. “Demand is very weak. People are waiting for prices to stabilize,” one Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted in its May update that jewellery and bar-and-coin demand could decline by 50–60 tonnes (10% year-on-year) in 2026 due to the duty hike. Domestic prices are trading at a deep discount to landed prices, widening from about $14/oz before the hike to nearly $150/oz afterwards, as ample supply and profit-taking weighed on premiums. Regulatory tightening and market impact The duty hike was part of broader measures aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. Banks paused bullion imports for over a month earlier this year due to delays in government notifications, further disrupting supply. Large chain jewellers reported panic buying immediately after the duty announcement but expect slower sales ahead. Smaller retailers, already pressured by high prices, are struggling with reduced volumes and margins. China premiums narrow The premiums in China, the world’s top consumer, have narrowed, reflecting cautious sentiment. Buyers are hesitant as global prices remain volatile, and local demand has softened. This trend mirrors India’s slowdown, suggesting broader regional weakness in physical gold consumption. The WGC’s May commentary noted that gold fell 1% in May, finishing at $4,546/oz, as positive risk sentiment and ETF outflows weighed on prices. Analysts warned that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates later this year as inflation pressures mount, which could prolong headwinds for gold. “Gold is vulnerable, perched on its 200-day moving average, in what looks like a declining channel,” the WGC said. Smuggling concerns and outlook Past trends suggest that higher import duties increase unofficial inflows. After the 2013 duty hike, smuggled gold rose sevenfold within a year. A similar pattern was seen after the 2022 hike to 15%, when unofficial imports surged from 17 tonnes to nearly 50 tonnes. Analysts caution that the latest increase could again encourage smuggling, widening the domestic–international price gap. India’s gold demand is expected to remain muted in the near term, with jewellery purchases subdued outside of weddings and festivals. Investment demand is more sensitive to duty changes and could decline further if inflation persists. Globally, ETF flows remain lacklustre, and the possibility of Fed rate hikes poses additional risks. For now, the market is caught between regulatory tightening, volatile prices, and cautious consumers. Unless prices stabilize and policy pressures ease, India’s gold demand is likely to stay weak through the rest of 2026, with broader implications for global bullion trade. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/06/05/india-gold-demand-weakens-as-soaring-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines/

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Module Prices Drop] Over the weekend, polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 32.7-35.5 yuan/kg. Market order signing was limited, and prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. After the exhibition, no new orders were signed, and the market is watching for subsequent policy developments.

SMM Report, June 5: Benchmark monthly long-term contract prices for China’s tungsten sector were officially released recently. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association unveiled its June 2026 domestic tungsten forecast prices: 55% WO₃ black tungsten concentrate at RMB 505,000 per metric ton, down RMB 195,000/MT month-on-month; ammonium paratungstate (APT) priced at RMB 760,000 per metric ton, a MoM drop of RMB 260,000/MT;

According to Chinese customs data, in April 2026, China imported 6,689 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, up 9% month-on-month and fourfold year-on-year. Among this, 2,252 tonnes came from South Korea, accounting for 34% of total imports; 1,706 tonnes from Indonesia, representing about 25%; and the remaining 40% from Australia and Chile. In April, China exported 5,535 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, an increase of 76% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year. Of this, 3,915 tonnes were exported to South Korea and 864 tonnes to Japan. Ongoing weak output of overseas ternary cathode materials has limited their ability to absorb offshore lithium hydroxide, leading to a modest oversupply in overseas markets and widening the price gap between domestic and international markets. At the same time, due to previously signed long-term supply agreements between overseas holders and Chinese traders, overseas holders have been able to continuously dump lithium hydroxide into the Chinese market. Taken together, these factors have driven a sustained reversal in the lithium hydroxide trade pattern (from net export to net import).

Following the formal announcement by India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, the India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will take effect on 1 June 2026. Market attention has largely focused on the surface-level benefit that “Oman will exempt an average 5% import tariff on 98% of Indian export goods.”

On May 22, TISCO announced its tender purchase price for high-carbon ferrochrome for June at 8,295 yuan per 50 metric base tons. Tsingshan Group set its price at 8,495 yuan per 50 metric base tons simultaneously. Both prices were unchanged month-on-month from May, largely in line with market expectations. Market sentiment has stabilized, and retail prices of ferrochrome have halted their decline and leveled off.

Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, SMM overseas bauxite prices were generally stable with slight upward movement. Supported by rising energy and seaborne freight costs, prices of some imported bauxite cargoes edged up. However, domestic alumina refineries maintained relatively high raw material inventories, while downstream acceptance of high-priced resources remained limited. Market transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand. Among them, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By product, Guinea bauxite FOB price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining largely stable since the beginning of May. Guinea bauxite CIF price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF price (49-50/6-7 grade) stood at $62/mt, while Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF price (51-52/8-10 grade) stood at $56.50/mt, both flat MoM. Türkiye bauxite CFR price (54/6 grade) stood at $78.50/mt, up $2.50/mt MoM, rising from $76/mt to $78.50/mt during the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $62.50/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF price (47-51/5-6 grade) stood at $78/mt, with prices remaining stable during the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports According to customs data, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports reached 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea reached 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the major source of China’s bauxite imports. In terms of shipments, as of May 22, the average daily bauxite shipment volume from major Guinean ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down around 21.8% MoM. Taking into account the shipping schedule transmission period, domestic bauxite arrivals are expected to gradually decline from late June, with a relatively significant decrease in domestic bauxite arrivals expected in July. Market Impact Factors In May 2026, overseas bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: expectations surrounding Guinea’s export policy, rising energy and seaborne freight costs, and the restraint on procurement appetite caused by high bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries. First, Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remained a key market focus. Earlier, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might implement a bauxite export quota policy around the May Day holiday, which could support Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipment volumes. However, as the relevant policy has yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment has weakened. Market participants have also become less active in pricing and stockpiling based on this factor. Second, rising energy and seaborne freight costs provided some support for overseas bauxite prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices remained at high levels, pushing up mine land transportation, seaborne freight, and production operating costs. According to SMM survey, freight rates from Guinea to China rose from around $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt during May, significantly lifting shipment costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders saw weaker shipment enthusiasm, while the market also observed a slowdown in shipment pace. Third, raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained relatively high, limiting their acceptance of high-priced imported bauxite. Currently, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries generally remain above three months. Downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, while willingness to chase high-priced resources remains weak. Although some long-term contract prices for Guinea-to-China cargoes were around $70/mt in May, SMM survey showed that some downstream alumina refineries’ intended procurement prices for spot cargoes were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, indicating that the price gap between buyers and sellers remained significant. Price Outlook On the supply side, energy and seaborne freight costs remain high, providing certain support for overseas bauxite prices. Meanwhile, the phased decline in shipment volumes from major Guinean ports may gradually transmit to China’s arrival volume. On the demand side, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain relatively sufficient, and the likelihood of a sharp increase in their procurement price expectations in the short term is limited. The price negotiation between buyers and sellers remains relatively evident. SMM expects overseas bauxite prices to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in Guinea shipments, seaborne freight trends, the pace of inventory consumption at domestic alumina refineries, and changes in procurement sentiment.

22 May, 2026 Highlights Gold import duty was raised sharply by 9%– from 6% to 15%, the steepest increase on record – alongside broader regulatory tightening Domestic gold prices have not yet fully reflected the duty hike amid weak demand and ample supply; local markets are currently in deep discount from the landed price 1 Past trends indicate that higher duty increases unofficial inflows, although official imports remain relatively resilient Gold demand is expected to moderate in 2026, with jewellery and bar and coin demand projected to decline by 50–60t (~10% y/y) on account of the import duty hike. Policy actions on gold imports Since early April the government has adopted a series of measures aimed at moderating gold imports. These have been part of a broader push to conserve foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and mounting pressure on the INR, which has depreciated by more than 7% y-t-d. These measures include price-based actions, administrative and regulatory tightening, and consumer-directed messaging. While noteworthy, they are not unprecedented; gold is among the top five imports for India, accounting for 8% of the country’s merchandise imports in 2025, and similar measures have been utilised in the past. On the price front, the gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%, making it the single largest increase on record and fully reversing the duty cut of July 2024 ( Chart 1 ). Rules were also tightened for gold imports linked to exports (under the advance authorisation scheme) 2 and the Prime Minister has directly appealed to consumers, urging them to avoid buying gold for a year. 3 Chart 1: Import duty reverses course Customs duty on gold (%)* *As of 13 May 2026 Source: CBIC, World Gold Council. These measures followed a series of policy actions that were seen as efforts to slow the import of gold, including the delay in issuing annual licenses for bullion imports to banks, 4 restrictions on the import of all forms of gold, silver and platinum jewellery and platinum alloys; 5 and continued delay in issuance of notification exempting banks from the Integrated Goods and Service Tax (IGST), 6 which led to the banks pausing bullion imports for over a month. 7 The pattern of gold import duty revisions To date, India’s gold import duty revisions have been infrequent, with long periods of stability between policy revisions. Gold imports were subject to a flat duty (a fixed rupee amount per 10g) prior to 2012, but this was subsequently replaced by a value-based duty structure. Between 2012 and 2013 duties were raised repeatedly through a series of 2% hikes, up to 10%. This was followed by a prolonged gap of nearly six years before a further 2.5% hike in July 2019. Since then, revisions have become larger and more frequent, including duty cuts in 2021 and 2024 and sharp hikes in 2022 and 2026, reflecting a more active use of import duties to manage trade dynamics. Table 1: India’s gold import duty cycle Source: CBIC, World Gold Council Price adjustment – the tariff lag effect As expected, the import duty hike led to an immediate increase in domestic gold prices. However, the rise in prices was lower than the 9% increase in duty. Physical market prices, proxied by the MCX spot gold price, have risen in the range of 4% to 6% since the change in duty. While the duty hike mechanically raises the official domestic or landed price, 8 physical market prices do not fully or immediately mirror the increase in duty – rather they adjust to it with a lag, particularly when the change is as steep as the current 9%. Moreover, the increase came at a time of seasonally weak demand – summer wedding purchases are largely over, and the period from mid-May to mid-June is considered inauspicious for buying gold – thus limiting the full pass-through of the duty hike. Market feedback indicates that there is ample supply from the exchange of old gold jewellery for new, and the likely front-loading of imports, further limiting the rise in price. Chart 2: Prices have risen less than the duty hike Landed price and MCX spot gold price in USD per ounce* *As of 18 May 2026. Landed price is the international prices (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. Source: Bloomberg, CBIC World Gold Council. Domestic gold prices trade at a deep discount post duty revision In the immediate aftermath of the import duty hike, domestic gold prices traded at a steep discount to official prices, 9 widening from an average of US$14/oz the week prior to the duty hike to nearly US$150/oz ( Chart 3 ). The rise in domestic prices post the duty hike triggered profit-taking by investors, boosting supply even as physical buying weakened, and bullion dealers likely offloaded inventory imported at lower duty rates, adding to market supply. Chart 3: Discounts widened sharply NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 15 May 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council. Previous import duty hikes in 2019 and 2022 also resulted in discounts in the domestic market, but this episode has been significantly more pronounced due to the scale of the increase ( Table 2 ). Table 2: Post-duty hike movement in domestic gold price discounts (US$/oz) Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Market and trade reaction and expectations Share prices of listed jewellers fell by ~2%–17% following the duty hike, reflecting expectations of weaker discretionary demand. Market feedback and trade interactions suggest a varied impact across segments, with many retailers indicating a likely pause in procurement. Large chain stores saw a brief period of panic buying after the announcement, driven by expectations of further measures, and while they expect a slowdown in sales, they remain relatively resilient given inventory buffers and continued support from bridal demand. Mid-sized and regional players continue to see buying from affluent customers but are expecting to rely more on exchange programmes and tighter inventory cycles going forward. Smaller retailers appear the most vulnerable: already stretched by persistently high prices, they now face added pressure from sales volumes and profit margins. Import duties and smuggling Import data points to a consistent relationship between higher import duties and the inflow of unofficial gold. Between 2013 and 2026 increases in import duty were mostly followed by higher levels of unofficial or smuggled gold, while duty reductions coincided with sharp declines in such inflows. Excluding the COVID years of 2020–21, the correlation between import duty and unofficial imports is positive at 0.52, indicating a meaningful link between higher duties and smuggling activity. Following the 4% duty hike in 2013, unofficial imports increased sharply from around 10t in Q1 of that year to 70t by Q1 2014, a seven-fold increase in under a year. Even when duties were steady at 10% through the second half of 2013 until Q2 2019 unofficial inflows remained elevated, averaging 34t per quarter. This suggests that once smuggling networks are established they are difficult to unravel. A similar pattern was observed after duty was hiked from 10.75% to 15% in July 2022. Unofficial imports rose from 17t in Q2 2022 to nearly 50t by late that year and stayed elevated through much of 2023. In contrast, after duty was cut to 6% in July 2024, unofficial imports fell almost immediately to near zero. There was a temporary drop in unofficial imports during 2020–21, which can be attributed to COVID-related disruptions. The evidence suggests that higher import duties widen the domestic–international price gap and increase the incentive for smuggling, while lower duties reduce its attractiveness. Chart 4: Import duty driven shifts Source: Metal Focus, World Gold Council. Limited duty sensitivity of imports Our analysis suggests that import duty changes have had a limited influence on official import volumes over the past 13 years. 10 Across duty regimes ranging from 6% to 15% official imports remained relatively resilient, between 175t and 236t per quarter in most periods, excluding the COVID period in 2020. The highest quarterly imports were recorded under the 10.75% duty regime (236.2t), while imports also remained stable at the higher 15% duty rate (174.5t). Statistically, the overall correlation between duty rates and official imports is negative 0.17, indicating a weak relationship between the two. This suggests that duty changes are not a key driver of imports; rather, broader demand conditions play a greater role. Chart 5: Steady imports through duty cycles Average quarterly official imports at various import duty levels* *As of 18 May 2026. Source: DGCIS, CBIC, World Gold Council Recent data also highlights import resilience: April imports rose to US$5.6bn, up more than 80% on an annual as well as a sequential basis. This was despite banks pausing gold imports as they awaited the renewal notification that exempt them from the integrated goods and services tax (IGST). This suggests that the imports were likely driven by refiners, who increased their intake of gold doré around the key demand period of Akshaya Tritiya (19-20 April) further supported by gold price moderation. At the same time, some degree of front loading of imports – in anticipation of curbs amid the prolonged Iran-US conflict, elevated oil prices, and the INR vulnerability to a high import bill – cannot be ruled out based on anecdotal evidence. In volume terms, we estimate imports in April were in the range of 48-55t. Chart 6: Imports rise despite disruptions Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Gold ETFs: flows slow Indian gold ETFs continued to attract inflows in April 2026, marking the 12th consecutive month of positive flows. Net inflows stood at INR30.4bn (US$325mn), broadly in line with our estimates . 11 While inflows were modestly higher sequentially (up 3% m/m), they remained well below January’s peak, at about 13% of the INR240bn (US$2.6bn) recorded at that time, signalling a moderation in demand after a very strong start to the year. Redemptions stayed elevated in April at INR20.5bn (US$220mn), reflecting ongoing profit-taking, a trend seen since February. Cumulative holdings rose by 1.1t to 116.7t, while AUM stood at INR1,781bn (US$19bn), a modest 3% decline from January, largely due to softer gold prices (down ~9% in INR terms). Investor participation remained healthy, with folios (or accounts) reaching 12.5mn, although growth slowed in April, with folio additions of 77,413 – the lowest since September 2024. Gold ETFs experienced outflows following the import duty hike, with redemptions from 13-18 May largely reversing earlier gains. On a month-to-day basis, however, demand remains marginally positive at around INR1bn (~US$12mn). Chart 7: Gold ETF momentum softens Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end April 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Demand moderation Gold demand trends across different duty regimes indicates that while import duties influence consumption, other key factors such as gold prices, income growth and inflation, simultaneously impact demand. Periods of high import duties have generally coincided with a moderation in demand, particularly for bars and coins. Average quarterly demand remained relatively subdued during the extended 10% duty period of 2013-19 ( Chart 8 ) as well as during the period of 12.5% duty (2019-20), although the latter was also affected by COVID. Chart 8: Tariffs temper demand Average jewellery and bar and coin demand at various import duty levels* Source: Source: Metal Focus, CBIC, World Gold Council Our econometric models 12 suggest that changes in import duties tend to impact gold demand in both the short and long term, although the impact differs across jewellery and investment products such as bars and coins. Investment demand appears more sensitive to duty changes, while jewellery demand has shown greater resilience. Jewellery consumption is influenced more by prices and inflation and import duties have less of an impact. This is likely because jewellery purchases often tend to be a requirement, particularly for weddings and social occasions. Investment demand on the other hand is linked to income levels and import duties, with higher duties and restrictions tending to weigh on demand. In the short term, factors such as inflation and rainfall also influence investment demand alongside taxes. Looking at 2026 as a whole, we estimate that combined jewellery and bar and coin demand could decline by around 50-60t, around 10% lower than the previous year due to the impact of the import duty hike. Other factors, such as the gold price, changes to income levels, inflation, or effects from the monsoon would further influence annual demand. Footnotes 1 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AA) adjusted for import taxes. Prices as of 18 May 2026. 2 Centre further tightens gold import rules, caps advance authorization at 100 kg, The Tribune, 20 May 2026. 3 Why PM Modi asked Indian families not to buy gold for a year, India Today, 11 May 2026. 4 After delay, DGFT authorises 17 banks to import bullion for 3 years, Indian Express,17 April 2026 5 India imposes immediate restrictions on gold, silver and platinum jewellery imports to curb FTA misuse, NDTV Profit, 1 April 2026. 6 IGST is a tax on the supply of goods and services between states in India. 7 India's gold import crisis: Why banks halted shipments for a month and what it took to start again, Money Control, 12 May 2026. 8 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. 9 Official domestic price is the landed prices which is the international price adjusted for import taxes. 10 Q3 2013 to Q1 2026. 11 Based on partial information 12 Reference page 128-132. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/05/india-gold-market-update-import-tightening