SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The current development of the gold price continues to cause frustration for many investors. Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, gold has so far failed to gain lasting new momentum from these events.

Commodity markets have experienced extreme fluctuations in recent weeks – but not all analysts see this as a shift in sentiment.

[SMM Analysis: Module Scheduled Production Declines at a Faster Rate, with a Significant Drop in Quoted Prices for New Glass Orders in June] The current quoted prices for glass in June are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (12-12.5 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (13-13.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (20-21 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (21-22 yuan/m²); and 2.0mm back glass (11-12 yuan/m²). As of now, the quoted prices for glass in the June market have been significantly reduced, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/m² compared to the same period in May. The intended transaction price has dropped by 1 yuan/m² compared to the same period in May, and the actual price has fallen by approximately 1 yuan/m².

In recent weeks, there has been intense debate about the outlook for the copper market in the second half (H2) of 2025.

[6.3 Lithium Battery News] ►CITIC Securities: Adjusts the forecast for the lithium price range in H2 2025 to 60,000-70,000 yuan/mt ►MIIT and CAAM Successively Comment on the New Round of "Price War" in the Automotive Industry: "Cut-throat Competition" Has No Winners, Nor a Future ►Lopal: Signs a 5 billion yuan sales contract for LFP cathode materials with Eve Energy Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. ►Tibet Mineral Development: Lists Baiyin Zhabuye's equity for transfer again at a 10% discount ►Yongxing Materials: Currently does not sell lepidolite concentrates externally

On May 28 (Wednesday), Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its average copper price forecasts for this year and next, citing improved global prospects following a temporary tariff agreement between China and the US. The commission increased its average copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound in its February report. At a press conference, Cochilco's leadership expressed cautious optimism about the copper price outlook, while acknowledging that the global supply situation was tighter than expected and that demand fundamentals were strong. Cochilco stated that the agreement reached between the US and China earlier this month to reduce hefty tariffs for at least 90 days "significantly reduced trade barriers and eased tensions that had affected confidence and global trade dynamics." Cochilco also believes that long-term trends such as the energy transition, power grid expansion, EVs, and ESS will continue to support copper prices. In Q1, production increased at the world's largest copper producers, Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals. Cochilco reported that state-owned Codelco's production grew by 5.2% in April. Despite this, the increase in domestic production did not offset the global decline. Cochilco now expects global supply growth this year to be significantly lower than previously forecasted, at 1.3%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.7% growth. Victor Garay, Cochilco's Mining Market Coordinator, stated that in a market that is effectively balanced, any supply disruptions would directly impact prices. Additionally, Cochilco forecasts that Chile's copper production will increase by 3% this year and continue to rise by 3% in 2026, with an expected output of 5.84 million mt by then. The production guidance is lower than Cochilco's February forecasts, which projected growth rates of 4.6% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026. Globally, Cochilco forecasts a copper supply deficit of 109,000 mt this year and a slight surplus of 19,000 mt in 2026, with demand expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.8% this year and next, respectively.

SMM May 20 Report: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, among domestic market base metals, only SHFE tin saw an increase, rising by 0.29%. SHFE nickel led the declines with a drop of 0.83%, while the declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract rose by 1.42%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 0.88%, the main polysilicon contract dropped by 0.99%, and the main silicon metal contract declined by 2.53%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 2.8%. In the ferrous metals series, only iron ore saw an increase, rising by 0.28%. Stainless steel fell by 1%, and rebar declined by 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.47%, and coke dropped by 1.71%. In the overseas market, as of 15:07, only LME lead and LME tin rose together, with LME lead up by 0.43% and LME tin up by 0.12%. LME copper fell by 0.5%, and LME aluminum dropped by 0.53%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:07, COMEX gold fell by 0.67%, and COMEX silver also declined by 0.67%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.48%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.21%. Market conditions as of 15:07 today 》Click to view SMM market dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [Addressing cut-throat competition, policies to stabilize the economy will be implemented before the end of June! A comprehensive guide to the NDRC press conference] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held its May press conference at 10 a.m. today. Li Chao, the NDRC spokesperson, stated that on top of accelerating the implementation of existing policies, the NDRC, in collaboration with relevant departments, has expedited the introduction of several measures to stabilize employment, stabilize the economy, and promote high-quality development. Relevant departments are currently working diligently to implement these measures, with most policy initiatives planned to be in place before the end of June. Meanwhile, the NDRC will continue to strengthen policy pre-research and reserves on a regular and open-ended basis, continuously improving the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and the economy to ensure timely implementation when needed. Li Chao mentioned that the NDRC aims to finalize and issue the entire list of "implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas" construction projects for this year by the end of June, and to implement them to a high standard. Li Chao stated that addressing cut-throat competition is a matter of great concern to all. Currently, China's economy is in a period of replacing old growth drivers with new ones, with new industries, business forms, and models continuously emerging. Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation and upgrading, during which some sectors have encountered structural issues, breaching the boundaries and bottom lines of market competition, distorting market mechanisms, and disrupting fair competition order, necessitating rectification. 》Click for details [Five departments jointly voice their stance on the continuous promotion of urban renewal initiatives] ① Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: China is currently entering a crucial period for urban renewal; ② NDRC: The 2025 special central budget investment plan for urban renewal will be issued before the end of June; ③ Ministry of Finance: Encouraging policy banks to provide support for eligible urban renewal projects; ④ Ministry of Natural Resources: Actively supporting localities in formulating special urban renewal plans; ⑤ National Financial Regulatory Administration: Will study and introduce specialized loan management regulations for urban renewal projects. 》Click to view details 》First cut this year! China's 1-year and 5-year LPR both lowered by 10 basis points in May ► On May 20, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1931 RMB per US dollar. US dollar updates: As of 15:07, the US dollar index fell by 0.17%, closing at 100.19. On May 19 (US Eastern Time), Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, expressed his expectations for future price increases in an interview, believing that inflation is moving in a concerning direction. Therefore, he favors only one interest rate cut this year. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated that, given the current level of uncertainty, it is appropriate to wait and observe how policies unfold. William Dudley, the third-ranking official at the Federal Reserve and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, warned that tariff policies could drive up both inflation and unemployment, and that the outlook may not become clearer until after June or July. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year to begin in October. Macro updates: Today's data includes China's annual growth rate of total electricity consumption in April (monthly), Australia's cash rate in May, Canada's unadjusted annual CPI growth rate in April, Canada's central bank's core monthly CPI growth rate in April, and the preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in May. Additionally, notable events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement of its interest rate decision, a press conference on monetary policy by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, which will run until May 22. Crude oil updates: As of 15:07, oil prices in both markets showed mixed performance, with US crude oil rising by 0.03% and Brent crude oil falling by 0.02%. Analysts stated that Saudi Arabia is expected to burn more crude oil for power generation this summer, as it increases crude oil production after OPEC+ relaxes supply controls and as fuel oil becomes more expensive. By burning more crude oil, Saudi Arabia may alleviate some concerns about global supply surpluses, following OPEC's agreement (which includes allies such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia) to increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day in April, May, and June. Despite analysts lowering their oil price forecasts for this year after OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases sparked concerns about increased supply, refiners' profits from producing high-sulfur fuel oil from Dubai crude oil reached a record high of $4.45 per barrel. OPEC data shows that Saudi Arabia's oil production quota for June is 9.367 million barrels per day, up from 9.034 million barrels per day in April. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua) SMM Daily Review ► The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues, with spot prices remaining stable for now [SMM EMM Daily Review] ► Silver prices are in the doldrums, with downstream consumption weakening and transactions being negotiated [SMM Daily Review]

SMM, May 14: Metal Market: Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose. LME copper, LME zinc, and SHFE zinc all increased by over 1%, with LME copper up 1.09%, LME zinc up 1.51%, and SHFE zinc up 1.57%. The gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract rose by 1.69%. The ferrous metals series generally rose, with iron ore up 0.83% and stainless steel up 0.73%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.34% and coke by 0.75%. The gains of other metals were all within 1%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose by 0.82% and COMEX silver by 1.43%, recording a four-day winning streak. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.36% and SHFE silver by 0.4%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:48 a.m. on May 14 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement on adjusting tariff hike measures on imported goods originating from the US. Upon approval by the State Council, starting from 12:01 a.m. on May 14, 2025, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council adjusted the tariff hike measures on imported goods originating from the US, reducing the tariff hike rate specified in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 from 34% to 10%, suspending the implementation of the 24% tariff hike rate for 90 days, and halting the implementation of the tariff hike measures specified in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell by 0.8%, giving back most of its gains from the previous trading day, mainly due to inflation data falling below market expectations. The US Department of Labor stated that CPI rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the 0.3% expected by economists, and the consumer price index fell by 0.1% in March. Despite this, inflation may rebound in the coming months due to higher costs of imported goods resulting from US tariffs. The easing of trade tensions has led market participants to lower their estimates of the likelihood of a recession and also reduced expectations for the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Financial markets expect the US Fed to resume interest rate cuts in September. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Other Currencies: The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 147.6 yen, after a significant gain of over 2% the previous day. The US dollar fell by 0.54% against the Swiss franc to 0.841, after climbing 1.6% on Monday. The British pound rose by 0.95% against the US dollar to 1.3297 US dollars, on track for its largest single-day gain since April 28. Macro: Today, data such as the US May IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) and the final annual German April CPI will be released. Additionally, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech titled "Central Bank Research," and US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economic outlook. US Secretary of State Rubio will participate in the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO's security priorities, including increasing defense investments and ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up 2.71% and Brent crude oil up 2.52%, both recording four consecutive days of gains, primarily driven by easing trade tensions and better-than-expected inflation reports. The two benchmark contracts rose by about 4% or more in the previous trading session after China and the US reached a consensus to significantly reduce import tariffs within at least 90 days, which also boosted Wall Street stocks and the US dollar. "We didn't participate in the rally like other markets did yesterday, so we're catching up today," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. "This morning's data also gives the US Fed room to possibly start taking some action." Goldman Sachs stated in a report that due to the recent easing of trade tensions, the bank sees upside risks to its price forecasts for Brent crude oil and US crude oil in 2025 and 2026. The bank believes that Brent crude oil and US crude oil prices are expected to average $60/barrel and $56/barrel, respectively, for the remainder of 2025, with upside risks of $3-4 per barrel, and $56/barrel and $52/barrel, respectively, for 2026. However, Goldman Sachs noted that the reduced risk of a recession also lowers the likelihood of a significant drop in oil prices, although robust supply growth outside of US shale oil could still push prices sharply lower. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) plan to increase oil exports in May and June, which may limit the upside potential for oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

【Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Price Forecasts for Q2 and Q3】On May 7 (Wednesday), Goldman Sachs raised its quarterly copper price forecasts, citing easing trade tensions and resilient copper demand, which are likely to continue supporting copper prices in the coming months. "We have raised our price forecasts for Q2/Q3 from the previous US$8,620/8,370 per mt to US$9,330/9,150 per mt," the bank said in a report. (Webstock Inc.)