[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Overtly Stable but Softened in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.5-47.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 43.64 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 40-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, with reports of some transactions concluded at low prices. Bearish sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises persisted, and prices were expected to remain weak.

SMM News, March 23: Aluminum ingot: On March 23, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,410, down 650, at a discount of 175 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After plunging in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract rebounded slightly. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market stayed barely firm, while buyers' overall purchasing sentiment today was overall satisfactory. Current prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers generally held prices firm, but with inventory buildup over the weekend and ample circulating supply, overall price support was clearly constrained by shipment pressure. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were mainly concentrated at premiums of -180 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

SMM News, March 23: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall buying sentiment increased today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.72, down 0.58 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.3, up 0.07 MoM. Today, aluminum prices extended their decline, and premiums in central China remained in positive territory. Traders’ willingness to purchase and stockpile was somewhat lower than in the previous two days. Although downstream processing enterprises showed some willingness to buy the dip, they still did not make large-scale concentrated purchases, and overall market purchase sentiment weakened somewhat. In the end, actual quotes and transaction prices in the central China market declined all the way, from a 50 yuan premium over the central China price before the opening to near parity with the central China price, while suppliers showed no obvious willingness to hold prices firm. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.63, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.48, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continued Its Weak Consolidation, and Market Wait-and-See Sentiment Was Strong]

On March 21, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

Spot prices for #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 30 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 92,840 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM, March 23: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at 110 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 92,985 yuan/mt, down 2,960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,865 yuan/mt, down 2,965 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for a fifth straight day, mainly due to limited arrivals and increased shipments. As copper prices plunged, suppliers once sought to hold prices firm and sell in early trading, with standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt. However, as the current structure has shifted to a backwardation structure, more suppliers showed strong willingness to sell and proactively lowered premiums to move cargoes, sending standard-quality copper down to a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.63, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.42, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, as futures shifted to a backwardation structure, suppliers actively sold, and spot turned to discounts, with overall trading remaining average.

Silver prices fell sharply today, and spot market premium quotations varied widely. Suppliers generally held back sales and stayed on the sidelines, while some smelters cut prices to sell off cargoes. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of 150-200 yuan/kg against TD, but transactions were difficult. Some suppliers lowered premiums against TD to 100-120 yuan/kg, with only a small amount of rigid-demand transactions concluded. Spot cargo circulating in the market was relatively sufficient, and cargoes self-picked up from production site from smelters were sold off at premiums of 50-100 yuan/kg against TD or quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2606 contract. Downstream consumption weakened, and most downstream enterprises purchased cautiously for fear of further price declines, resulting in sluggish silver ingot transactions during the day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.