On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

Policy & Trends: India has exempted three types of stainless steel flat products from BIS certification until Sep 2026, easing import barriers. Japan’s Metal One fully acquired Thailand’s PSCTH to boost high-end exports. In Taiwan, China, traders tentatively raised 304 prices by NT$2,000/ton following mill hikes, though holiday trading remains quiet. Market Drivers: 304 spot prices hold at 14,350–14,400 RMB/ton, with Indonesia FOB at $2,082.5/ton. While Middle East tensions keep logistics and fuel surcharges high, providing a strong price floor, weak downstream demand is keeping the market in a narrow range-bound pattern for now.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

Australia's Lynas Rare Earths signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of Defense to supply the US side with light and heavy rare earth oxides worth $96 million over four years, with a floor sales price for Pr-Nd of $110/kg. Based on this, the two sides will finalise a definitive agreement and discuss further cooperation on heavy rare earth supply. The agreement followed Lynas's expanded supply arrangement with Japan's JARE. Under the March 10 agreement, JARE will purchase at least 5,000 mt of Pr-Nd oxide annually at a floor price of $110/kg and buy 50% of Lynas's heavy rare earth production. The price floor matched the 10-year price commitment the US made to MP Materials last year, signalling that Western clients were willing to pay a premium for "non-China" rare earths.

In contrast to the typical price declines seen during the traditional spring festival low season from January to February in previous years, China’s domestic manganese sulfate market has recently staged an independent rally of “strong performance amid the off-season”, with prices rising steadily along the way.

Lynas Rare Earths has amended its supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE). The revised agreement secures 5,000 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) from Lynas annually, while JARE commits to purchasing 50% of Lynas's annual production of heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium. The total rare earth oxides covered by the agreement are expected to exceed 7,200 tonnes per year. Regarding pricing: A price floor of USD 110 per kilogram is established for the committed 5,000-tonne volume. If the market price exceeds USD 150 per kilogram, JARE will receive 30% of the excess amount over USD 150, subject to an annual cap of USD 10 million

Gulf energy crisis from Iran conflict could undermine copper’s $12,000 per tonne floor as inflation and real yields rise, pressuring bullish positioning.

SMM, February 27: After the Chinese New Year, the tungsten market got off to a good start, re-entering an accelerated uptrend and repeatedly hitting new highs.

Key Points: Silver extends its breakout above the 50-day MA as bullish momentum builds toward the February high of $92.20. A 31% drop in COMEX inventories fuels concerns over a growing physical supply crunch. Registered silver stocks fall below 90M oz, raising liquidity fears as open interest exceeds available metal fourfold.

The Indonesian aluminum market remained stable during the 2026 Chinese New Year, with production unaffected and bauxite prices holding at USD 28–32 FOB amid RKAB uncertainty. Alumina prices also stayed steady at USD 308 FOB due to feedstock stability and a seasonal lull in Chinese buying activity.