The current spot rhenium metal market in China is characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, two-way bargaining in supply and demand, and high-level price consolidation. Overall market performance is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, the pace of stockpiling across the industry chain, overseas supply chain risks, and China’s supply and demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Faster Producer Shipments In China’s upstream rhenium metal market, mainstream producers maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled at around 28,000. Only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price structure remained clearly tiered, with no wild swings. From the circulation side of the market, upstream producers recently showed stronger willingness to sell, and shipment frequency increased significantly. II. Midstream: Concentrated Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream smelters and rhenium processing enterprises are currently in scheduled production, with pre-holiday order deliveries relatively concentrated. Most producers are scheduled to complete deliveries in March and April. From the cost side and purchasing sentiment, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. The procurement side is more inclined toward rational bargaining and resists rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. This sentiment directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steadily Recovering Industrial Demand Downstream demand showed clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand moving in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment sentiment weakened, and retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment. Low-price sell-offs began to appear in the market one after another, and some holders chose to sell below market prices in order to recover funds quickly, which to some extent impacted short-term transaction prices in the spot market. On the other hand, industrial demand showed a healthy trend of steady return and continued growth. As the core support for rigid demand in the rhenium metal market, the recovery in industrial demand provided a solid fundamental floor for the market and offset part of the bearish impact brought by investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Considering the macro market environment and the supply and demand fundamentals of the industry chain, the core logic of the current rhenium market in China is clear: bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and in competition, jointly keeping prices in a high-level consolidation range. The specific influencing factors and market outlook are as follows: In the short term, affected by the international macro situation, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remained elevated and diverted market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector pulled back significantly. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. In addition, around the Chinese New Year, upstream and downstream producers across the industry chain had already completed phased restocking, leaving market inventory in a relatively ample state. Raw material prices therefore lacked the momentum for a sharp increase, and short-term upside room for prices is limited. In the long term, competition in the international critical minerals sector intensified, and critical minerals consultations between the US and Chile continued to advance. The trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains became increasingly evident, directly leading to reduced stability in import channels for ammonium perrhenate from outside China, while external supply risks continued to rise; the supply of ammonium perrhenate showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Energy Supply Pressure and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup May Lead to Continued Price Consolidation] The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, obstruction of major shipping routes, and expectations for rising transportation costs are anticipated to increase pressure on Europe's energy supply. After the domestic holiday, the lead market has experienced severe inventory buildup...

Jinlong Copper's Crude Selenium Bidding Successfully Concluded

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Increase in Secondary Lead Production Data May Sustain Lead Price Consolidation Due to Cost Support] The spread between futures and spot prices for lead widened WoW. Even after the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract was completed, suppliers did not halt the transfer to delivery warehouses, and social inventories of lead ingots are expected to continue increasing. Meanwhile, the production data of secondary lead enterprises rose, further driving up demand for scrap batteries.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Increase in Secondary Lead Production Data May Sustain Lead Price Consolidation Due to Cost Support] The spread between futures and spot prices for lead widened WoW. Even after the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract concluded, suppliers did not halt the transfer to delivery warehouses, and social inventories of lead ingots are expected to continue rising. Meanwhile, the increase in secondary lead production data has further boosted demand for scrap batteries.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,398.5/mt, initially bottoming at $9,379.5/mt amid fluctuations.

DeepSeek Recently Sparked a Capital Frenzy in the A-Share Market; The Spot Market Remains Quiet [SMM Tin Morning Brief] DeepSeek recently sparked a capital frenzy in the A-share market, driving up multiple technology-related sectors and attracting significant foreign capital into the Chinese market. DeepSeek is also prompting global investors to reassess the investability of China. According to a Goldman Sachs research report, global hedge funds have been heavily buying Chinese stocks for most of this year, with buying momentum in early February reaching its strongest level in four months. Based on incomplete statistics, over the past month, global hedge funds have driven the total market capitalization of onshore and offshore markets to increase by more than $1.3 trillion (approximately 9.43 trillion yuan). Investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have expressed optimism about the Chinese stock market, believing that technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek and policy dividends will further drive market growth. In the futures market, SHFE tin prices during yesterday's night session opened slightly higher and then stabilized, adjusting to around 262,500 yuan/mt before the close. The overall open interest in SHFE tin contracts showed relatively small changes. Meanwhile, the spot market remained relatively quiet, with most downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Spot market transactions yesterday were mainly conducted through a pricing-on-demand model. Under the current high-level price consolidation, the spot market is likely to remain in a quiet state.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Delivery Warehouse Transfers and Spot Improvement, Lead Prices May Continue Consolidation Trend] PBOC: Adjust and optimize policy intensity and pace at an appropriate time to promote a reasonable rebound in prices, closely monitoring changes in the monetary policies of major overseas central banks. Domestically, only two working days remain until the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract. Suppliers have increased warehouse transfers for delivery, especially with significant inventory growth in warehouses near major consumption areas...

[Hunan Gold: YoY Increase in Selling Prices of Gold and Antimony, 2024 Net Profit Expected to Grow 60%-90% YoY] Hunan Gold previously disclosed its 2024 performance forecast, indicating that the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 782.5654 million yuan to 929.2964 million yuan, representing a YoY growth of 60%-90%. During the reporting period, the performance increase was mainly driven by the YoY rise in selling prices of the company's gold and antimony products.

SMM January 3 News: SMM January 3 News: Mid-week this week officially marked the transition from 2024 to 2025, while the domestic antimony market remained sluggish with no significant changes in demand, resulting in market prices being basically stable. As of now, the SMM antimony average prices are as follows: 2# low-bismuth antimony ingot at 137,000 yuan/mt, 1# antimony ingot at 140,000 yuan/mt, 0# antimony ingot at 144,000 yuan/mt, and 2# high-bismuth antimony ingot at 134,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the antimony trioxide market prices this week, as of now, are as follows: SMM antimony trioxide average prices—99.5% at 120,000 yuan/mt and 99.8% at 129,000 yuan/mt.