[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Energy Supply Pressure and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup May Lead to Continued Price Consolidation] The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, obstruction of major shipping routes, and expectations for rising transportation costs are anticipated to increase pressure on Europe's energy supply. After the domestic holiday, the lead market has experienced severe inventory buildup...

Global precious metals markets witnessed significant pressure on Tuesday as silver prices declined sharply, with the XAG/USD pair falling below the critical $94.00 threshold amid renewed demand for the US Dollar.

Silicon metal production in February was 275,700 mt, down 26.6% MoM and 5% YoY. In terms of daily output, the average daily production in February decreased by about 19% MoM from January.It is projected that silicon metal production in March will increase to over 340,000 mt MoM, with an average daily production increase of approximately 13% MoM.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] For tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a modest recovery trend, but the room for improvement is limited. During the second trading session of the day, spot premiums and discounts for SHFE copper gradually stabilized, with suppliers making no significant price adjustments. Only non-registered copper discount quotes dropped slightly, indicating an increased willingness among suppliers to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, downstream acceptance of current prices has been gradually improving, and buying and selling sentiment remains stable. In terms of market structure, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month narrowed slightly, suggesting that suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses may have decreased. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked-price imported sources continue to arrive, coupled with high social inventory, resulting in an overall ample supply of circulating goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are steadily resuming production, and buying and selling sentiment has rebounded MoM, but the overall pace of recovery remains slow, making it difficult to provide strong support for premiums and discounts. Overall, while spot premiums and discounts are slowly recovering, there are still upward resistance.

[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: aluminum scrap prices rise but with regional divergence market supply increases] overnight, the 2604 contract for aluminum alloy opened higher and retreated after a rapid rise. it touched a high of 23,305 yuan/mt at the opening and then fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 22,940 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly towards the close. it finally closed at 230,450 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decline of 0.58%. the futures showed a move downwards after a higher opening, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. trading volume remained low, and open interest decreased slightly, suggesting a cautious approach to trading.

As of March 3, domestic titanium dioxide prices edged up, driven by post-holiday price hike announcements from both chloride and sulfate producers. The rally is supported by rising sulfuric acid costs, improving demand, and low inventory levels. However, escalating geopolitical tensions have disrupted shipping routes, affecting key export markets including India and the Middle East. Near-term focus remains on downstream restocking and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

SMM March 3rd Update: Today, in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 260 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 320 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,145 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,985 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Inventory in Guangdong has increased for seven consecutive days, but the growth rate has slowed down. Copper prices have significantly decreased, and downstream end-users have resumed production, leading to an increase in procurement volume by both traders and processing enterprises compared to yesterday, which stimulated the rise in premiums for standard-quality copper; however, due to relatively small demand for thick plates from downstream enterprises, today's quotes for thick plates were slightly lower by 10 yuan/mt than yesterday. Today, the sentiment for purchasing electrolytic copper in the Guangdong region was 2.52, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, and the sentiment for shipments was 3.14, up 0.04 from the previous trading day. (Historical data can be accessed through the database.) Overall, the decline in copper prices stimulated downstream restocking, with spot premiums rising and transactions improving.

Platinum prices fell sharply today, with the most-traded platinum 2606 futures contract on the GFEX dropping 4.24% in early trading and closing at 596.45 yuan/gram. In the spot market, spot platinum against the PT2606 contract was quoted at a discount of 10-12 yuan/gram, or at a discount of 1-3 yuan to the SGE selling price 1. The spot discounts narrowed compared to the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, according to SMM, some end-users made just-in-time procurement, mainly buying small quantities at the low point around 10:00. Meanwhile, the willingness to sell among some traders increased, leading to a recovery in overall spot market transactions.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 460 to 300 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 101,520 yuan/mt, down 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

ING’s commodities strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Gold is pushing higher as markets react to escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran.