SMM Aug 18 news: Today, the center of SHFE aluminum futures fell from the previous trading day, market shipment sentiment was relatively pronounced, and overall spot aluminum transactions shifted to discounts. Today, market transactions for A00 aluminum ingot premiums were between a discount of 40 yuan/mt and parity. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.05 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.15, down 0.25 MoM. Today, the overall trading atmosphere in the central China market remained at yesterday's level. The monthly average price met market trading expectations, somewhat boosting traders' enthusiasm for shipments, but downstream processing enterprises' procurement sentiment consistently remained at the previous day's level. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around a discount of 110-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 3.13, up 0.04 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.9, unchanged MoM. Inventory side, today aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 1,000 mt MoM, with only Gongyi showing destocking.

SMM August 18 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 107,690 yuan/mt, down 2,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums averaged 415 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell 500 yuan/mt from the previous day; the copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.73, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.82; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,098 yuan/mt, down 1,435 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,430 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, after the futures delivery day ended, copper prices quickly pulled back. Although secondary copper rod enterprises wanted to purchase more, copper scrap suppliers believed prices had fallen too much and were unwilling to sell at low levels; most held prices firm while selling. Tax-included copper scrap prices were relatively firm, and intraday quotations were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/mt against futures, narrowing by 200 yuan/mt from yesterday.

[SMM Analysis: From Aurubis to Nexans and Wieland: Why Are European and US Copper Companies Expanding Recycling Capacity?]European and US copper companies have accelerated investment in recycled raw materials. Copper scrap is therefore becoming more than a supplement to primary copper. It is increasingly viewed as a strategic resource that can improve raw material security, diversify earnings and reduce product carbon footprints.

[SMM Analysis: From Aurubis to Nexans and Wieland, Why Are European and American Copper Companies Collectively Ramping Up Recycled Raw Materials?] In recent years, the copper industry in Europe and the United States has significantly accelerated its push into recycled raw materials, and participants are no longer limited to traditional secondary copper smelters. From integrated smelters such as Aurubis, Boliden, and Glencore to wire-and-cable and copper-processing enterprises such as Nexans and Wieland, different segments of the industry are simultaneously strengthening their capabilities in copper scrap recycling, pretreatment, smelting, and internal recycling. This means the logic behind the development of the secondary copper industry in Europe and the United States is shifting: recycled raw materials are no longer merely a supplement to primary copper supply, but are gradually becoming an important strategic resource for companies to ensure raw material security, stabilize profit sources, and reduce the carbon footprint of their products.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Consolidate on a Strong Note and Move Higher; Stainless Steel Spot Offers Hold Steady, Transaction Recovery Hard to Sustain According to SMM on August 18, SS futures maintained a strong consolidation pattern, extending the previous day's stronger tone, with prices moving higher. At the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,275 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures rebounded and strengthened yesterday afternoon; with guidance prices at mainstream steel mills holding steady, inquiry and transaction activity in the spot market clearly recovered. Today, momentum for further gains was insufficient, transactions weakened somewhat, and trader offers remained firm. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 traded at 14,235 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Wuxi 304/2B spot premiums were in the 435-635 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil held steady; for cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, the Wuxi average rose 25 yuan/mt and the Foshan average rose 25 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices fell 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures were repeatedly disrupted by macro sentiment and overall remained on a weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesian RKAB nickel mining approvals repeatedly disturbed industry expectations. Combined with the US Fed's hawkish policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty in the market stayed high. Multiple bearish factors combined to drag SS futures through a sustained pullback during the week, with overall bearish sentiment dominating the market...

SMM News on August 18: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.19%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.35%. SHFE lead rose 0.13%. SHFE zinc fell 0.97%. SHFE tin fell 1.57%. SHFE nickel rose 0.19%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.84%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.69%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.92%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.17%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.21%, rebar fell 0.27%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Stainless steel rose 0.6%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.36%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.2%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.34%, and LME lead rose 0.11%. LME zinc fell 0.59%. LME aluminum and LME tin edged down, with both declines within 0.1%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver fell 1.29%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.15%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.12%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.61%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 0.99% to 1,737.5 points. As of 11:42 on August 18, midday performance of some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper’s absolute price continued to pull back during the day, driving some downstream players to restock on dips and releasing purchase demand from traders. Market transactions improved markedly from yesterday, with standard-quality copper trading relatively smoothly around spot premiums of 350 yuan/mt, providing some support below spot premiums. Overall, with copper prices pulling back to spur the release of rigid demand and the backwardation structure providing support, but high premiums limiting further rush to buy amid continuous price rise, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to consolidate around current levels... Macro Front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-tier Markets and Boosting County-level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renovation and upgrading of existing commercial facilities. Supported the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping centers, and promoted optimized site selection for branded chain stores, discount retailers, and fresh-food e-commerce outlets. Deepened the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” renovation and enhancement initiative, supported the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, township (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carried out standardized and regulated renovation and construction of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated parcel and logistics service stations. [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Drain of 95.8 billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today, while carrying out 469.7 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. As 565.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 95.8 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.63. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 35%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 41.3%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 50 basis points was 7.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the primary benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in line with the US Fed’s short-term rate decisions, rose more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of extending the deadline. Investors were awaiting the release later this week of the minutes of the US Fed meeting to gain further insight into its latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Reuters poll: Of 104 economists, 94 expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September (95 held this view in the July survey). Eighty of 104 economists expect the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in 2026 (78 held this view in the July survey). Recent weak US jobs and retail sales data, along with subdued inflation data, prompted investors to scale back bets on rate hikes. However, Paul Brocardo, CEO of BankPro, noted in a report that if uncertainty over the Middle East situation and the resulting inflation concerns persist, the dollar's downside may be limited. Any escalation in tensions could boost demand for safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the dollar, while also lifting oil prices and driving yields higher. (Jin10 Data APP) On the Data Front: Today will see the release of the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany's August ZEW economic sentiment index, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index, US ADP employment change for the week ended August 1, US July annualized housing starts, US July building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial production MoM, and US July pending home sales index MoM, among others. In addition, Xiaomi Group and Baidu will hold earnings calls. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both crude oil benchmarks were higher, with WTI crude up 0.7% and Brent crude up 0.63%. As prospects for US-Iran peace talks dimmed, market concerns over crude oil supply supported prices. US President Trump said he has no intention of extending the soon-to-expire agreement with Iran. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. The two sides still have differences on many issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Other officials suggested that the US is in no rush to end the conflict, which has lasted nearly six months. The US Energy Secretary said the US is playing a long game with the Islamic Republic of Iran, while Trump's senior adviser Kushner said Trump would remain patient on reaching an agreement. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said measures will be announced in the coming days to help refineries increase fuel production. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve still has 300 million barrels, and its level after the Iran conflict ends will be higher than before the conflict. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

【East China Spot Market】SHFE zinc futures prices declined MoM this morning, prompting some downstream companies to lock in prices and purchase cargoes, while others remained bearish. Overall spot zinc ingot trading in East China saw only limited improvement, with spot premiums changing little MoM.

[Guangdong: Guangdong’s Contract Rollover Today, Spot Premiums Center Moved Lower] Mainstream transactions for Guangdong 0# zinc were at 25,685-25,875 yuan/mt. Mainstream brands were quoted at discounts of 160-120 yuan/mt against the 2610 contract, and discounts of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot discounts, with the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowing......

Platinum prices moved downwards after a higher opening, and futures were overall in the doldrums. In early trading, the GFEX most-traded PT2610 platinum contract closed at 433.45 yuan/g, down 0.18%; the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 best offer price maintained a price spread of around 2 yuan/g against the GFEX PT2610 contract. Spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum were at a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Suppliers’ discount quotations were basically flat from the previous trading day. As futures moved lower intraday, more spot-futures traders increased quotations and actively sold, while downstream enterprises mainly made small, just-in-need purchases based on orders, with no obvious improvement in consumption. Shipments of high-priced cargoes from suppliers were hindered, and actual deals generally required negotiation. Warehouse warrants carried relatively high premiums, and mainstream quotations were mostly around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g against the most-traded contract. Overall, spot platinum market trading remained sluggish.

On August 18, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $85/mt (price range $70-100/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell by $2/mt from the previous trading day to $53/mt (price range $45-61/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. Copper prices pulled back today, and the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered somewhat. Meanwhile, the backwardation structure narrowed, but downstream players still stayed on the sidelines; buyers and sellers continued to tug-of-war, and prices for cargoes nearing arrival at port tended to weaken. It was heard today that EQ copper arriving in late August was quoted at $45/mt.