SMM April 20 update: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated downward in early trading, but overall aluminum prices remained at high levels. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment was relatively positive, influenced by declining aluminum prices and wider premiums. Mainstream transactions in the market were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 3.4 today, down 0.32 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.06, flat MoM. SHFE aluminum prices pulled back today, but high aluminum prices still suppressed buying sentiment in the central China market. Downstream processing enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with slight pressure to push for lower prices in actual transactions. However, overall buying sentiment recovered compared to the previous two days. Suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, transaction prices remained stable, and the downward trend was not significant. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between a 20 yuan premium over the central China price and parity. The shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.85 today, flat MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.39, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 28,000 mt MoM today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw a slight improvement in orders WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm; meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower offer prices for shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area decreased by 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while the Jiangsu area decreased by 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure between futures contracts, and some selling pressure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM April 20 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals. Despite the significant inventory drawdown, rising copper prices dampened downstream restocking enthusiasm, and suppliers could only maintain last Friday's prices, unable to hold prices firm further. Guangdong copper cathode purchasing sentiment today was 2.31, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.6, down 0.03 from the previous trading day (historical data available via the SMM database). Overall, the sharp inventory decline failed to offset rising copper prices. Premiums today remained flat compared with last Friday, and overall trading activity was weak.

The silver market will remain one of the most discussed topics in the commodities sector in 2026 as well. Although silver is still heading toward a supply deficit, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts believe that alone is not enough to push prices back to January’s highs.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.20 Futures: Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract 2609 opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,777 yuan/mt and a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,750 yuan/mt, up 84 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 134,000 lots to 274,000 lots, with continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,780.4), MA10 (2,790.50), and MA30 (2,938.23), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-28.37) crossed above DIF (-54.32), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -31.91. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.99/mt, up $0.04/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $69/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $63/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $81.5/mt, up $3/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, amid ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventory in China remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with continued price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Price: As of April 16, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,680.25 yuan/mt, down 13.32 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,650.82 yuan/mt, down 14.71 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,691.88 yuan/mt, down 16.96 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,685.65 yuan/mt, down 26.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,726.82 yuan/mt, down 13.4 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,665.39 yuan/mt, down 13.88 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 13.25 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 16, total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,799 mt from the previous trading day to 478,900 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat from the previous trading day at 58,375 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan increased by 4,795 mt from the previous trading day to 36,322 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi increased by 4 mt from the previous trading day to 17,434 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained flat from the previous trading day at 310,900 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was at $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was at $30.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.84. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,678.42 yuan/mt, which was 1.83 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window remained open. Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate edged up this week, mainly driven by production resumptions after production line upgrades in Shanxi and continued ramp-up of new capacity in Guangxi. Demand side, aluminum operations remained stable overall, with demand holding steady. Domestic inventory continued the inventory buildup trend this week, with total inventory up 48,000 mt WoW. Overall, the alumina market is still in an inventory buildup cycle, primarily driven by continued supply release coupled with increasing port arrivals and warrant registrations. Looking ahead to next week, as new capacity in Guangxi is further released, supply is expected to maintain growth, inventory is likely to continue accumulating, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Issues Remain Volatile, Lead Prices to More Closely Track Fundamentals] Last Friday, US President Trump confirmed that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the strait situation resolved. However, over the weekend the situation reversed, with Iran firing again to force back oil tankers. Recently, China's lead-acid battery market has been in the off-season, and lead ingot inventory has risen, becoming a strong bearish factor for lead prices. In mid-to-late April...

Although the silver market is expected to see a sixth consecutive year of annual supply deficit, one market strategist believes this may not be enough to push silver prices back to their January all-time highs. In his latest report on silver, Mike McGlone, senior market strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, reiterated his relatively mediocre expectations for the precious metal. He stated that silver prices could "meander for years" between $50 and $100. McGlone made the above comments as silver was struggling to sustain a break above initial resistance at $80. While McGlone did not rule out the possibility of silver retesting the $120 high set in January, he noted that rising prices would lead to a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics. He stated: "A key takeaway is that the supply deficit will change due to this parabolic price adjustment, and the market could transition into a phase of high-price-driven demand destruction. " McGlone noted that silver's current trajectory resembles parabolic fluctuations seen in other periods. He explained that silver's rally, which began in mid-2025, reached a premium of 2.6 times its 10-year moving average at its peak, strikingly similar to the last parabolic move in 2011. McGlone stated: "We see parallels. Silver was around $79 on April 15, and silver appears set for a prolonged stagnation between $50 and $100. Given the risk of mean reversion, the probability of silver pulling back toward its 10-year moving average near $33 is greater than the probability of it staying above $100. " Meanwhile, McGlone reminded investors that silver's 180-day volatility is more than five times that of the S&P 500. This reading reached its highest level since 1980, when silver topped just below $50 — a high that was matched in 2011 and not surpassed until 2025. Looking ahead, McGlone believes that if the trend reverses, silver could retrace to $50. McGlone's bearish expectations come as the market digests the Silver Institute's annual report, which forecasts this year's annual silver deficit at 46.3 million ounces. However, as silver consumption in PV solar cell panels is expected to decline by 19%, industrial demand this year is expected to fall by 3% . Metals Focus, the research firm responsible for the survey, expects investment demand to be the biggest driver of the silver market this year. The survey showed that, driven by 30 mt of physical inflows into silver exchange-traded products (ETPs), silver investment demand is expected to grow by 18% this year.

In the spot market, the price center of lead shifted slightly upward this week (April 13-17, 2026). Downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement on demand and restocked on dips, with weak purchase willingness at high prices. Overall transactions in the spot market eased slightly WoW. This week, mainstream transaction prices of primary lead in Henan maintained parity or a slight discount against SMM #1 lead. Traders offered at a discount of 180-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. At the beginning of the week, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and spot orders were limited. In Hunan, prices gradually shifted from a discount to parity or a slight premium during the week, with some plants holding prices firm on shipments after their inventory was sold out. In Guangdong, suppliers maintained offers at a premium of 25-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, with transactions supported by just-in-time procurement.

[Zinc Ingot Export Window Nearing Opening, Shanghai Spot Premiums Expected to Hold Firm Next Week]: The center of Shanghai spot premiums shifted higher this week, with the weekly average price up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 60-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the premium brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 0-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract..

SMM April 17 News: Lead prices were weak in the first half of this week, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt, and smelters saw sluggish shipments. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and quotes pulled back to discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, with shipment enthusiasm rebounding. Downstream sectors were in the consumption off-season, mainly restocking on dips and purchasing via long-term contracts. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified. Both supply and demand are expected to be weak next week, with premiums moving sideways. Affected by weak lead prices and high scrap battery costs, secondary lead smelting losses widened. As of April 17, large-scale enterprises posted profits/losses of -200 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted -404 yuan/mt. Some producers plan to cut or halt production next week to control losses. Weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and the industry's loss-making landscape will be difficult to reverse in the short term.