In mid-April, CATL announced plans to invest 30 billion yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Times Resources Group, registered in Xiamen and positioned as a professional investment, operation, and management platform in the new energy minerals sector. This major move is not only a key step for CATL in building a closed-loop entire industry chain of "ore — materials — battery — recycling," but will also inject strong momentum into the extraction and reuse of rare and precious metal resources, driving the battery recycling industry from standardized development toward a new phase of technological breakthroughs and scale expansion. The core mission of Times Resources Group is to integrate global critical minerals resources such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, while expanding into high-quality rare and precious metal mining projects. From an industry perspective, lithium, nickel, and cobalt are core raw materials for power batteries, while rare and precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals are indispensable in electronic devices and catalysts. Through this 30 billion yuan capital deployment, CATL can both ensure that its primary lithium resources self-supply rate rises above 35% and keep lithium chemicals costs below 50,000 yuan/mt, while also establishing stable raw material connection channels for rare and precious metal regeneration after battery recycling through full industry chain control of mineral resources. More notably, CATL hired Chen Jinghe, founder of Zijin Mining, as a mining consultant, leveraging his extensive experience in mineral exploration and extraction to further optimize resource development processes. This means the upstream extraction segment will place greater emphasis on green and efficient technology applications, such as adopting efficient leaching technology for low-grade ore and comprehensive recovery processes for rare and precious metal associated ore, improving resource utilization rate from the source, laying the raw material foundation for rare and precious metal regeneration in subsequent battery recycling, and achieving synergy between "primary extraction + secondary recycling."

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mine enterprises indicated that lead concentrate TCs had almost no room for further decline, while imported ore prices were still mainly quoted at -$150 to -$130/dmt. Affected by the recent tight supply-demand conditions of zinc concentrates and copper concentrates, some suppliers of lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the pricing methods for copper and zinc. Although the comprehensive value of such copper- and zinc-rich lead concentrates was raised, the pricing of lead and precious metals within them remained unchanged, and the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market remained firm.

[Price Review] This week, Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced, with the US-Iran standoff continuing to escalate: on April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; on April 29, the US explicitly prohibited its individuals and entities from paying such fees to Iran, while warning non-US entities that payment would face significant sanctions risks; on April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons was the bottom line for negotiations, stating that communication with Iran was underway via phone. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainties over the global economic outlook, and precious metals remained under pressure. On the US Fed front, the April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence persisting—one member advocated for an interest rate cut while three members opposed releasing easing signals. Powell broke decades of industry convention by announcing that after stepping down as Fed Chairman, he would remain as a governor until early 2028; he explicitly stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the independence of the US Fed's monetary policy-making while undermining the institution's own stability. Whether the conflict risks further escalation will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, exerting significant impact on silver price trends. Industrial demand side, sluggish downstream consumption persisted, and as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises opted to stockpile small quantities on dips. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 29, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rose to 62. [Key Data] Bearish: Middle East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, with the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz transit fees intensifying. Core negotiation demands were completely opposed, and the deadlock over waterway blockade and military confrontation remained unresolved, pushing up sticky inflation expectations and reinforcing the US Fed's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. The US Fed's April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence hitting a 34-year high. The overall stance was neutral-to-hawkish, with no clear interest rate cut signal released. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, continuously suppressing silver valuations. Inflation stickiness in the US and Europe exceeded expectations. US March CPI rose to the highest YoY and MoM since 2024, and the eurozone March core CPI final reading was unexpectedly revised upward. Persistent inflation further weakened the necessity for central bank easing. US labor market resilience exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 posted the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations, completely eliminating market bets on an emergency US Fed interest rate cut. China's silver industrial demand remained weak, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and transaction discounts kept widening. Bullish factors: US March PPI data significantly missed market expectations, with YoY, MoM, and core PPI gains all well below forecasts, releasing signals of marginal inflation easing and preserving room for subsequent Fed interest rate cuts. Dovish divergence within the Fed persisted, with one committee member advocating an immediate rate cut at the April meeting; some officials still believed multiple rate cuts remained possible this year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading; stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven demand for silver. Key data and macro events to watch next week include: May 1: Eurozone April CPI preliminary reading, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI. May 6: US March JOLTs job openings, April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. [Price Forecast] Recent precious metals market trading logic continues to revolve around re-escalating Middle East geopolitical concerns, inflation expectations driven by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations, and Fed Chairman transition and internal divergence. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish; as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises chose to stockpile small quantities on dips. The upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory has yet to improve, and the market expects mainstream spot transaction discounts to remain within a narrow discount range relative to the SGE TD price. Silver prices are expected to remain under pressure with volatile trading next week.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Precious Metals Market News] The silver point premiums in silver nitrate prices remained stable. Although the price spread in silver ingot premiums widened, "invoiced transactions" remained the mainstream trading model in the market. Influenced by factors such as raw material quality and brand requirements, the silver point premiums of some silver nitrate enterprises stayed within the range of -10 yuan/kg to 0 yuan/kg, with no signs of widening discounts.

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

SMM April 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper down 0.29%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.37%, hitting an intraday high of 152,230 yuan/mt, the highest since January 26. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were flat at 23,175 yuan/mt, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.45%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.6%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.08%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.77%, rebar up 0.31%, hot-rolled coil up 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.55%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.22%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.79%. LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead rose 0.49%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 1.14%. LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold edged up 0.07%, COMEX silver rose 0.65%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.07%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.13% to 2,252.9 points. As of 11:40 on April 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for two consecutive sessions, mainly due to weak downstream consumption... Macro front China: [31 World Firsts: China's Mineral Resource Inventory Published, with Continued Increase in Exploration Investment Planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released China's latest mineral resource inventory. China ranked first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, China's mineral production and smelting processing scale ranks firmly first globally. In 2025, the national mining output value was approximately 32.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Resource reserves grew significantly, laying a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and controllability. Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the state will continue to deeply implement a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs. The Ministry of Natural Resources will further improve the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserves, and sales of strategic mineral resources, and strengthen security risk monitoring and early warning for strategic mineral resources. In terms of key directions, efforts will focus on scarce strategic minerals such as copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating the resource position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and tin. In terms of spatial layout, land-sea coordination will be strengthened, with active expansion of survey, exploration, and development space, and increased efforts in basic geological surveys. The goal is to submit a number of mineral sites ready for development by 2030 and form new capacity as soon as possible. The PBOC conducted 25.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%. Today, 6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.66. US Fed watchers did not expect significant changes to the Fed's statement, but they noted there could be some subtle adjustments. For example, officials might revise their description of the labour market to acknowledge that recent data suggested the labour market had stabilized despite less hiring activity. Some officials also wanted the Fed to make clear that the next policy move could be a rate hike—rather than an interest rate cut—as the Iran situation had intensified existing inflationary pressures. To signal this view, officials could slightly adjust the wording of "the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the benchmark rate." Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report: "A hawkish statement might remove the word 'additional,' as it implies a dovish lean and effectively signals a continuation of a series of interest rate cuts." The US Fed made three interest rate cuts at year-end 2025. Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chairman of the US Fed and economist, stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed would say that the labour market is roughly in a stable state at present. Regarding the inflation mandate, (as inflation remains elevated at 3%), there is still much work to be done." He expected the US Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how all this plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved labor market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence index, Eurozone April industrial confidence index, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Germany's April preliminary CPI month-on-month, US March annualized housing starts, US March durable goods orders month-on-month, US March building permits, and Bank of Canada interest rate decision through April 29. Also noteworthy: Bank of Canada to release its rate decision and monetary policy report; US Senate Banking Committee to vote on advancing Waller's Fed Chairman nomination, with a full Senate confirmation vote to follow if passed; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers to hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.77% and Brent down 0.47%. Both WTI and Brent continued to pull back in the short term, fully erasing gains since the news that Trump planned to extend the blockade on Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials said Trump had instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, a high-risk attempt aimed at striking Iran's fiscal revenue and forcing concessions on the nuclear issue. Officials said that in recent discussions, including a Monday White House Situation Room meeting, Trump decided to continue suppressing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from Iranian ports. On April 28 local time, satellite imagery showed multiple oil tankers in waters near Iran's Chabahar Port, including 8 very large crude carriers and several small and medium-sized vessels, with a total capacity of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil. Chabahar Port is located on the Gulf of Oman coast in southeastern Iran. Although the port is located outside the Persian Gulf, it is already close to the blockade line set by the US. Analysts noted that as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly dropped to zero, rerouting some oil exports is one of the measures Iran has taken to minimize disruptions to its oil exports. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures platinum prices continued under pressure today. In the daytime session, the most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) closed at 491.7 yuan/gram, down 1.07%. The SGE Pt9995 versus GFEX PT2606 spread remained inverted. Spot side, mainstream spot quotations' discounts continued to narrow slightly compared to the previous trading day. In the daytime session, mainstream quotations from spot platinum traders were at a discount of 1-3 yuan/gram to PT2606. Recently, tax authorities launched a special campaign to regulate invoice practices, strictly controlling enterprise invoicing limits. However, as platinum and palladium trade volumes were relatively low in value, the market impact was relatively small compared to other products. Only some traders suspended precious metals quotations due to impacts on their main business, and a small number of spot cargoes with invoices dated this month were quoted at higher prices. Transaction side, according to SMM, daytime session transactions at the mainstream discount of 1-3 yuan/gram were hindered. Market purchase intention prices were around a 4 yuan/gram discount to GFEX. Downstream enterprises made rigid-demand bargain purchases. The overall market was in a strong holiday atmosphere, and consumption remained sluggish.

Although recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused short-term volatility in gold prices, the medium- and long-term outlook remains positive as high geopolitical risks, increasing fiscal deficits, and continued buying by central banks will continue to support the price of the precious metal.

Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 17:51 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel Gold falls 3% to $4,620/oz on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, testing three-week lows as Fed hawkish hold lifts dollar and Treasury yields. XAU chart shows $4,300 as the bull-bear line and a weekly close below targets $3,400 on a 100% Fibonacci extension, a 26% drop. JPMorgan still targets $6,300 by year-end and Goldman Sachs holds $5,400, calling the March correction a positioning unwind. Gold traded at $4,620 per ounce on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, falling for a second straight session and testing three-week lows as a hawkish Federal Reserve hold lifted the dollar and pushed Treasury yields back toward 4.4%. The metal has now lost close to 3% on the week, rejected the upper boundary of the multi-month consolidation defined by the January 28 record close at $5,400, and slipped back below the 50-day EMA. With the FOMC decision Wednesday, U.S. Q1 GDP later in the week, and the Strait of Hormuz still partially closed, why is gold falling has become the most-asked question in the precious metals complex. Follow me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk . Why Gold Price Is Going Down Today? Dollar, Yields, Hawkish Fed Hold The pullback is more about real yields than tail risk. The dollar index has held above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are running between 4.3% and 4.4%, and the CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of an unchanged rate at Wednesday's FOMC meeting at 99.5%. Each of those signals raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., framed the macro tape this way: "Gold fell to multi-week lows on Tuesday, pressured by a firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields." How High Can Gold Go? UBP Rebuilds Bullion Positions and Reaffirms $6,000 Gold Price Prediction for 2026 Why Gold Is Surging With Silver and Why Experts Predict $7,000 Price in 2026 Why Gold Is Going Up? Goldman Gold Price Prediction Sees $5,400 as XAU Rebounds Kooijman added that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and feeding back into yields, with gold-backed ETFs flipping to outflows last week after three weeks of inflows. Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, sees a controlled distribution rather than a panic flush: "After reaching a peak near 4,900 USD/oz, gold has entered a relatively deep corrective phase, pulling back toward the 4,700 area. However, this decline has not been characterized by panic selling, but rather by a controlled sequence of losses." Tran's read fits the daily chart, where lower closes have been measured rather than capitulatory. The structural drivers pulling gold lower this week: Dollar index above 98.5, sustained for the third straight session Ten-year Treasury yields back at 4.3-4.4%, lifting real yields CME FedWatch pricing 99.5% probability of an unchanged FOMC at 3.50-3.75% Gold ETF flows turned negative last week after three weeks of inflows Strait of Hormuz disruption keeping oil bid and the rate-cut path further out ETF Outflows and the Strait of Hormuz Premium The flow picture has shifted decisively in the past week. Last week's ETF outflows, the first since early April, broke a three-week inflow streak. The reversal coincided with West Texas Intermediate climbing back above $100 per barrel and 25 commercial vessels being redirected away from Iranian ports over the weekend. That oil-yields feedback loop has now become gold's dominant short-term driver. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated; elevated inflation expectations keep the Fed on hold; a Fed on hold keeps real yields elevated; elevated real yields keep gold under pressure even as the geopolitical backdrop, in classical terms, should support it. As I wrote in my March crash analysis , the same paradox crushed gold roughly 15% in March 2026. Key flow and physical market data points entering the FOMC week: Spot XAU/USD trades roughly 18% below the $5,595 January 29 all-time high Western ETF outflows resumed last week, snapping a three-week inflow streak WTI crude back above $100 per barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption Central bank buying still running near 60 tonnes per month, per Goldman Sachs Gold Technical Analysis: The $4,300 Bull-Bear Line My chart shows the same picture that has defined gold since late January: a wide consolidation channel between $5,400 at the top and the $4,300 to $4,400 zone at the bottom. The upper bound is the January 28 record close, retested without breaking on March 2. The lower bound is fixed by two anchors, the October 2025 highs at around $4,360 and the panic lows from the week of March 23-27, where price briefly tagged the 200-day EMA at $4,200. In 15 years on the precious metals beat at FinanceMagnates.com, documented across my analyst page , I have watched gold violate multi-month consolidation channels twice, both times with the kind of momentum visible on this week's chart. Tuesday's session moved decisively away from the 50-day EMA, which now sits as resistance overhead, and the rejection at the channel top is the cleanest sell signal the daily chart has produced since my March 25 reversal call at the 200 EMA played out. A breakout up from this range opens price discovery and a run at fresh all-time highs above $5,600. A breakout down is what concerns me. Below $4,300, my Fibonacci extension based on the full 2024-2026 trend projects 100% extension at $3,400, which lines up almost exactly with the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months before the September acceleration. From the current $4,620 level, that scenario implies a 26% drop, in line with the bearish framework I detailed in my previous analysis . Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com Until $4,300 breaks on a weekly close, this is consolidation, not a confirmed downtrend. Below $4,300, my chart has very little technical support before $3,400. Level Type Notes $5,400 Resistance / Channel top January 28 record close, retested March 2 $4,800 Resistance / 50-day EMA Lost on this week's break $4,620 Current spot Tuesday, April 28, 2026 $4,360 Support / October 2025 highs Lower bound of multi-month range $4,200 Support / 200-day EMA Tested briefly during March 23 panic $3,400 Extension target April 2025 highs and 100% Fibo extension Gold Price Predictions 2026: How Low Can Gold Go? The institutional band remains wide and stays bullish even after the spring drawdown. JPMorgan Global Research holds a $6,300 year-end 2026 target, with strategist Greg Shearer projecting average quarterly investor and central bank demand of around 585 tonnes; my reading is that the call needs another credible Fed pivot to play out before year-end. Goldman Sachs sticks with $5,400, framing the March selloff as a leveraged-positioning unwind rather than a fundamental break, and on the chart that view aligns with the consolidation thesis as long as $4,300 holds. UBS sees $5,200 by June and $5,900 by late 2026, but its short-term cut explicitly cited stronger dollar and oil pressure, which is the exact tape gold is trading right now. Wells Fargo at $6,100 to $6,300 and Deutsche Bank at $6,000 round out the bullish institutional cluster, all anchored on the same fiscal-debasement and central-bank-buying thesis that the FinanceMagnates.com report on UBP rebuilding bullion positions detailed earlier this month. The Reuters poll of 30 analysts has settled at a $4,746 median for 2026, almost on top of current spot, suggesting the consensus has already absorbed the bearish leg. The same complex dynamic is playing out across the silver leg of the precious metals trade , where every move in gold is being amplified. Source Target Notes JPMorgan $6,300 Year-end 2026, 585 tonnes/quarter demand assumption UBS (long) $5,900 Late 2026 target, $5,200 short-term by June Wells Fargo $6,100-6,300 Raised from $4,500-$4,700 in February 2026 Deutsche Bank $6,000 Reiterated by Michael Hsueh, Head of Metals Research Goldman Sachs $5,400 Year-end, base case excludes new buyer wave Reuters poll $4,746 Median of 30 analysts for 2026 My TA (bear) $3,400 Activated only on weekly close below $4,300 FAQ, Gold Price Analysis Why is gold falling today? Gold is falling on April 28, 2026, because the U.S. dollar index is above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are at 4.3% to 4.4%, and CME FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and last week's ETF outflows reinforced the move. How low can gold go in 2026? Based on my technical analysis, gold's bull-bear line is $4,300. A weekly close below activates a 100% Fibonacci extension at $3,400, anchored by the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months. That implies a 26% drop from current levels. Above $4,300, the metal stays inside its multi-month consolidation rather than a confirmed downtrend. Will gold crash below $4,000? A close below $4,300 on the weekly chart is the trigger I am watching for a sustained move under $4,000. The 200-day EMA sits at $4,200, briefly tagged during the March 23 panic. Without that level breaking on closing basis, talk of a crash is premature. Above $4,300, the structural bull thesis from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs remains intact. What is the 200-day EMA on gold? The 200-day EMA on gold sits at approximately $4,200 per ounce as of April 28, 2026. The level was last tested during the panic session of March 23, when intraday price briefly touched the average before reversing higher. The 200 EMA has acted as the definitive bull-bear boundary for gold since the metal first cleared $4,000 in October 2025. Should I buy gold now? This article is not investment advice. From a chart perspective, gold trades inside a wide consolidation between $4,300 support and $5,400 resistance. Risk-managed entries become clearer only after the FOMC decision and the response at $4,300. JPMorgan targets $6,300 and Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 for year-end 2026, while my chart's bear scenario warns of $3,400 if support breaks. Source： https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-is-gold-falling-gold-price-risk-crash-to-3400/