Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

Eskom in South Africa issued an urgent announcement that it would initiate Level 2 power rationing load shedding measures at 16:00 on May 13 (Tuesday), which would continue until 22:00 on May 15 (Thursday). This move aims to address the limited power generation capacity and ensure stable power supply during working days.

[SMM Analysis of China's LFP Market in April] In April 2025, the price of LFP in China plummeted, while production saw a slight increase compared to expectations, boosted by demand from the NEV sector. It is expected that production will continue to grow in May, but prices will struggle to rise.

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo—Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, co-hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Mingxin Guo, Senior Analyst of Bauxite at SMM, delivered a presentation on the topic "2024 Price Review and 2025 Trend Outlook for the Global Alumina Market." He pointed out that in 2025, overseas alumina capacity expected for commissioning is projected to reach 4 million mt, while aluminum capacity expected for commissioning is estimated to be less than 1 million mt. In 2026, overseas alumina supply and demand are both expected to increase, with overseas alumina production projected to rise by 2.79 million mt and overseas aluminum production expected to increase by 1.08 million mt. Based on an alumina consumption rate of 1.925, overseas alumina demand is expected to expand by 2.08 million mt, resulting in an estimated increase in alumina surplus by 710,000 mt to approximately 2.51 million mt.

Pengxin Resources' stock price surged on April 10, hitting the daily limit multiple times during the session. As of 11:08 AM on April 10, Pengxin Resources rose 9.62% to 3.76 yuan per share. On the news front, Pengxin Resources disclosed its Q1 2025 earnings forecast on the evening of April 9: preliminary estimates by the finance department indicate that the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company's owners of 100 million to 130 million yuan, an increase of 71.9033 million to 101.9033 million yuan compared to the same period last year. The company also expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company's owners after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 102 million to 132 million yuan, an increase of 113.3336 million to 143.3336 million yuan compared to the same period last year. Regarding the reasons for the expected profit, Pengxin Resources stated: During the reporting period, the company's production and sales of products such as copper cathode increased, and the price of cobalt hydroxide rebounded, leading to the reversal of impairment provisions on existing cobalt hydroxide inventory from previous years. Pengxin Resources previously disclosed its 2024 earnings forecast, which showed an expected net loss attributable to the parent company's owners of 85 million to 125 million yuan, compared to a loss of 108 million yuan in the same period last year. The net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 146 million to 186 million yuan, compared to a loss of 113 million yuan in the same period last year. Regarding the main reasons for the expected loss, Pengxin Resources stated: In 2024, the company's loss was mainly due to the impact of its operations in the DRC, with the primary reasons as follows: 1. Due to insufficient ore supply in the DRC in H1 and local power rationing, the production and sales of copper cathode decreased, leading to a reduction in gross profit. Ore supply returned to normal in H2. 2. To alleviate the shortage of copper ore supply, the production line utilized some of the company's own low-grade, high-calcium ore, resulting in increased consumption of self-produced sulfuric acid for copper cathode production and reduced sales of sulfuric acid. Additionally, due to intensified market competition, the selling price of sulfuric acid decreased, leading to a reduction in gross profit from sulfuric acid sales. 3. Due to the fluctuating decline in the market price of cobalt hydroxide, the company made corresponding impairment provisions on related inventory. Data shows that Pengxin Resources' main business is the exploration, mining, smelting, and processing of metal resources such as gold, copper, cobalt, and other metal minerals, as well as related product sales. Regarding the future of copper prices, many institutions have recently shared their views: UBS analysts provided insights into the potential trajectory of copper prices, noting that prices may temporarily drop to $8,000/mt, echoing historical patterns where prices fell about 25% to 30% from their 12-month peak. Despite an increase in speculative long positions on the LME, with net long positions rising by 45,600 lots since the beginning of the year, UBS expects any pullback in copper prices to be short-lived. The bank highlighted several factors supporting copper prices recently. One of these is the expectation of more accommodative global monetary policies, with the US Fed expected to cut interest rates to counter slowing economic growth and boost asset prices. UBS also noted that supply-side challenges are expected to persist in the short term, which should push prices higher, thereby encouraging investment in mine supply capacity. This outlook takes into account the possibility of increased stimulus measures and current supply dynamics. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to fall to a monthly average low of $8,300/mt in Q3 2025, forecasting a global copper market surplus of 100,000 mt (previously a deficit of 180,000 mt). Citi revised its 2025 nickel price forecast down to $15,500/mt from $16,000/mt, its 2025 zinc price forecast down to $2,630/mt from $2,750/mt, its 2025 aluminum price forecast down to $2,480/mt from $2,615/mt, and its 2025 copper price forecast down to $8,860/mt from $9,100/mt.

The impact of power rationing on the production of the Mirador copper mine led to a 16.9% YoY decline in the net profit of China Railway Construction Tongguan, a subsidiary of Tongling Nonferrous Metals, in 2024. According to the performance report released by Tongling Nonferrous Metals on March 29, the subsidiary's total operating revenue in 2024 was 8.027 billion yuan, up 0.14% YoY. Operating profit was 2.432 billion yuan, down 15.15% YoY. Total profit was 2.435 billion yuan, down 15.06% YoY. Net profit was 1.487 billion yuan, down 16.9% YoY.

[World Platinum Investment Council: Platinum Market Expected to Face Third Consecutive Shortage in 2025, Currently Estimated at 26 mt] The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) released the Q4 2024 and full-year "Platinum Quarterly" on March 5 and revised its forecast for 2025. The market is expected to face a third consecutive shortage in 2025, with the deficit deepening, currently estimated at 26 mt. Demand in 2025 is expected to decrease by 5% to 244 mt, though it will remain well above the five-year average since 2020, while total supply is expected to decline YoY by 4% to 218 mt.

[SMM Analysis: SiMn Alloy Market Review for 2024 and Outlook for 2025] I. Price Aspect: In 2024, the annual average price of SiMn alloy 65/17 in Inner Mongolia was 6,541.32 yuan/mt, down 5.07% YoY; in Guangxi, the annual average price was 6,660.74 yuan/mt, down 4.69% YoY. From the quarterly price review: 2024 Q1: Supply side, the reduction caused by power rationing or maintenance in north China recovered, but SiMn alloy production fell short of expectations. However, due to relatively high social inventory levels, SiMn alloy supply remained sufficient. Demand side, as steel mills had sufficient stockpiling of SiMn alloy and resumed production at a slow pace after the holiday, downstream steel mills showed weak demand and low enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy, leading to a decline in SiMn alloy prices in Q1. 2024 Q2: Due to disruptions in mine shipments and other news, miners showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and manganese ore spot prices rose significantly. With strong cost support, SiMn alloy spot prices surged rapidly. Supply side, SiMn alloy plants with pre-stocked manganese ore resumed production, and SiMn alloy production increased month by month. Demand side, downstream steel mills entered the traditional "golden March and silver April" peak demand season, boosting their purchasing enthusiasm for SiMn alloy. Supported by cost-driven factors and recovering demand from downstream steel mills, SiMn alloy spot prices continued to rise.