[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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SMM Nickel News, March 30: Macro and Market News: (1) “No Kings” rallies broke out across the US in opposition to Trump. US voters’ dissatisfaction rate with Trump hit a record high. (2) US President Trump told the Financial Times on the 29th that indirect talks between the US and Iran through intermediary Pakistan were “going well.” However, when asked whether a ceasefire agreement could be reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopened in the coming days, Trump did not disclose specific details. Spot Market: On March 28, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated rangebound. As of the close of the morning session today, it was reported at 137,010 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Supply side, tightening nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from “ore + taxes,” providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

Copper prices surged earlier in 2026 amid strong speculative inflows and rising futures positioning. However, physical demand has lagged, and inventories continue to build, creating a growing disconnect between financial pricing and real market fundamentals.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,157.5/mt and dipped to $12,106/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated upward to $12,246.5/mt. Later, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and finally closed at $12,141/mt, up 0.17%, with trading volume at 15,500 lots and open interest at 295,000 lots, down 991 lots from the previous trading day. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,080 yuan/mt and touched a low of 95,040 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved higher to 95,880 yuan/mt. Later, it fluctuated downward and finally closed at 95,490 yuan/mt, down 0.22%, with trading volume at 42,900 lots and open interest at 185,500 lots, down 1,897 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a five-day winning streak, with support provided by the 5-day and 10-day daily average lines below. In April, routine maintenance at smelters increased, and inventory continued destocking, while zinc fundamentals improved......

[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

According to CMOC’s official WeChat account: On March 27, CMOC released its 2025 annual results report, which showed that the company’s operating revenue reached 206.684 billion yuan, standing firmly above the 200 billion yuan mark for the second consecutive year; net profit attributable to shareholders came in at 20.339 billion yuan, up 50.30% YoY and setting a new record for the fifth consecutive year; net operating cash flow reached the second-highest level in its history at 20.843 billion yuan; and total assets exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.932 billion yuan, up 18.03% YoY. In particular, in Q4, the company recorded operating revenue of 61.198 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.059 billion yuan, and copper production of nearly 200,000 mt, all setting record highs for a single quarter. In 2025, with organisational upgrading as its main focus, the company built a “specialised, internationalised, and younger” team, refined its operations, and, together with rising prices for major products and strong production and sales, pushed its performance to a new peak. Specifically— Operating quality continued to improve. Revenue from the mining segment reached 77.713 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of total operating revenue, with the “mining” share up about 7 percentage points from 2024. Among this, revenue from copper products was 55.096 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total operating revenue and 71% of mining-segment revenue. Both “copper” share indicators increased by about 7 percentage points YoY. This was attributable to the continued debottlenecking of two world-class copper mines, TFM and KFM, based on their existing six production lines. During the reporting period, the company’s copper production reached 741,100 mt, setting another record high and consolidating its position among the world’s top 10 copper producers. Based on the midpoint of production guidance, the completion rate was 118%, while maintaining double-digit growth of 13.99% YoY. Sales were 730,200 mt, up 5.90% YoY. Together with higher prices, copper revenue increased 31.63% YoY. Production of other products also exceeded expectations: niobium production hit a record high of 10,348 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; phosphate fertiliser production was 1.2135 million mt, with a completion rate of 106%; cobalt production was 117,500 mt, with a completion rate of 107%; molybdenum production was 13,906 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; and tungsten production was 7,114 mt, with a completion rate of 102%. In addition, the company recorded physical trading volume of 4.71 million mt, with a completion rate of 111%; IXM’s gross margin under IFRS was 2.11%, a recent high. The results of “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” became even more evident. Full-year operating costs were 157.229 billion yuan, down 11.56% YoY. In 2025, mining areas worldwide focused on key words such as innovation, technological transformation, and process optimisation, putting the concept of “refined operations” into practice. In Q4, TFM’s overall copper beneficiation and smelting recovery rate, equipment operating rate, and raw ore throughput all exceeded the calendar schedule; KFM established an ore characteristics database and ore blending model, lifting grinding efficiency by more than 30% YoY; at CMOC Brazil’s niobium segment, the recovery rates of two beneficiation plants rose by about 2 percentage points from the previous year, setting record highs; in China, recovery rates at Shangfanggou molybdenum and Sandaozhuang molybdenum and tungsten increased by 3.24 and 2.65, and 3.17 percentage points YoY, respectively, also reaching record highs. Centered on “multiple products, multiple countries, and multiple stages,” the company built a “copper + gold” dual-pole structure in 2025, adding gold resources last year. Together with the greenfield gold mine in Ecuador and four operating gold mines in Brazil, the company will have gold production capacity of 20 mt in South America by 2029. The Ecuador gold mine is expected to start production in 2029, with land acquisition and power supply assurance advancing rapidly; the Brazil gold mines achieved output above target in the first two months, and are expected to produce 6-8 mt of gold this year. Targeting copper production of 800,000-1 million mt in 2028, the company is building Phase II of the KFM project, which is expected to add annual copper capacity of 100,000 mt after coming into operation in 2027; TFM identified resource potential in relevant deposits, and preliminary preparations for Phase III construction are accelerating. In addition, the company completed the issuance of a $1.2 billion one-year zero-coupon convertible bond, broadening financing channels to support the implementation of its strategy. Alongside earnings growth, the company consistently practiced high-standard ESG principles. During the reporting period, ESG governance was further improved and digitalisation advanced; environmental performance led globally: the carbon emission intensity of its copper products was lower than that of 70% of mining companies worldwide, while the shares of renewable energy and water recycling increased further from 2024 to 38% and 89%, respectively; total global economic contribution reached 182.42 billion yuan, and global community investment was 488 million yuan. 2026 is a critical year for the company to fully implement its new development strategy and deepen platform-based operations and refined management. The company will further build a platform-based organisation: with the global supply chain centre as the pioneer, it will enhance synergies and cost competitiveness; relying on the “622” model, supplemented by multinational mine management experience and standardised business processes, it will improve its global control system. Centered on the “copper-gold dual poles,” the company will further transform its resource advantages into capacity and production advantages, while continuing to seek high-quality targets. With the goal of becoming a “globally leading, distinctive world-class mining company,” the company will continue to forge ahead in the mining industry.

[SMM Weekly Review] This week (March 23–March 27), platinum prices rose first and then fell back. On the GFEX in China, the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 487.1 yuan/gram and closed at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 23.5 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.53%. The highest price during the week was 518.85 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 437.25 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 355 yuan/gram and closed at 358.2 yuan/gram, down 16.15 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.31%. The highest price during the week was 380.65 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 321.15 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 46,314 lots, total turnover of 22.397 billion yuan, and open interest of 16,467 lots, with open interest down 2,049 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 24,537 lots, total turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, and open interest of 7,356 lots, with open interest down 492 lots WoW. Recently, as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persisted, the precious metals market as a whole entered a stagflation panic mode. The specific logic was that the US-Iran conflict exceeded expectations, pushing up oil prices and thereby triggering concerns over imported inflation in the US, which in turn delayed the pace of interest rate cuts. Regarding the US-Iran conflict, on March 26, Trump announced a 10-day extension of the deadline for Iran's energy facilities; according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, informed sources said Iran had concluded that the US negotiation statement was a "deception" project, with three real objectives under its cover: first, to deceive the international community by fabricating a posture of peace; second, to suppress global oil prices; third, to buy preparation time for an aggressive ground invasion launched from southern Iran. Regarding the independence of the US Fed, the US Department of Justice admitted that its investigation into Powell lacked evidence. On tariffs, after the US reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, policy uncertainty increased, and the Trump administration was seeking a more solid legal basis to reconstruct the tariff system: in the short term, using Section 122 temporary tariffs to fill the tariff-rate vacuum, and in the medium and long term, planning to rely on Sections 232 and 301 to maintain a high-tariff framework. In addition, the ruling that the tariffs were illegal triggered pressure for massive tax refunds, exacerbating the US fiscal burden and reinforcing expectations for a weaker US dollar. Supply side, Eskom will raise electricity prices by 8% for two consecutive years in the future, and recently frequent announcements of breakdowns in negotiations with the mine side have led some miners to shut down their international operations, triggering concerns over supply disruptions in platinum and palladium. In addition, continue to monitor changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Watch for details on the new manager announced by the LME. Monitor the latest changes in the Middle East political situation. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the interplay between policy and the political environment under the US Fed's midterm election time window. Strategy-wise, a strategic bullish view on precious metals was still maintained, and pullbacks were seen as opportunities to build long positions for the medium and long-term. In the short term, as the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict has not been eliminated, the strength of any rebound may remain limited, and prices may fluctuate at lows. Under high volatility in platinum and palladium, attention should be paid to position control. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and overseas market trading, the opening prices of platinum and palladium often refer to overseas night session conditions, and investors should pay attention to trading prices in international markets and stay alert to opening gaps.

Concluding our series, we shift focus to 2026's emerging NdFeB growth drivers: robotics, low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. While viewed as the "second growth curve," we analyze their actual demand support amidst current macro and industry cycles to determine if they can offset traditional sector slowdowns.

On March 27, the IM LS8 officially opened for pre-sales. The new vehicle is positioned as a large SUV and is available in five-seat and six-seat versions. The pre-sale price ranges from 259,800 yuan to 309,800 yuan. Li Weimeng, Chief Marketing Officer of IM Motors, compared the brand to Sam's Club and Costco, emphasizing its focus on quality-oriented families.