SMM, July 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper increased 0.15%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.22%, SHFE lead gained 0.69%, SHFE zinc fell 0.85%, and SHFE tin jumped 1.57%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.28%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.64%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract climbed 0.67%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel dipped 0.3%, iron ore declined 0.46%, rebar dropped 0.35%, and HRC slipped 0.36%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.34%, and the most-traded coke contract increased 0.56%. Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper edged down 0.11%, LME aluminum dipped 0.33%, LME lead rose 0.96%, LME zinc fell 1.48%, LME tin edged up 0.73%, and LME nickel declined 0.38%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.77%, with its weekly line falling as it dropped 2.2% for the week; COMEX silver inched up 0.06%, with its weekly line declining for a second straight week, down 6.56% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.67%, with its weekly line falling for a second straight week, down 3.07% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.05%, declining for two consecutive weeks with a weekly loss of 7.85%. Data from the World Gold Council showed gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, leaving H1 ending with a decline. Despite outflows in June, China's gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, pushing total assets under management (AUM) slightly higher to 243 billion yuan and total holdings up by 29 mt to 277 mt. In June, China's gold ETFs saw outflows of 15 billion yuan, the weakest monthly performance on record. (From Wall Street CN APP) As of 8:45 am, July 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Ministry of Finance, Two Other Departments Adjust Consumption Tax Policy for Certain Batteries] On July 17, the Ministry of Finance announced that, starting September 1, 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on mercury-free primary cells, nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium primary cells, lithium-ion batteries, and all-vanadium flow batteries; from September 1, 2027, a 4% consumption tax rate will apply to these battery products. Starting April 1, 2027, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on solar cells; from April 1, 2028, the rate on solar cells will rise to 4%. From September 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, consumption tax will be exempted for sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, as well as for perovskite cells, tandem cells, and gallium arsenide cells among solar cells. [MIIT: Automotive Producers Required to Firmly Resist Irrational Competition and Strengthen Product Testing, Verification, and Safety Assessment] On July 17, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) convened a symposium for key automotive producers, deploying efforts to further regulate competition order in the automotive industry, enhance production conformity and quality safety levels of automotive products, and carry out key tasks such as safety risk and hazard investigations and inspections and supervision of automotive products. (from Wall Street CN app) [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Advance Urban Renewal with High Quality and Intensify the Implementation of the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Communities] On July 17, the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an expanded study session of the theoretical study center group. The meeting stressed that carrying out urban work in the new era and on the new journey is a glorious mission with arduous tasks. It called for advancing urban renewal with high quality, promoting urban governance with high efficiency, and building “four-good” construction of good houses, good residential communities, good neighborhoods, and good urban districts to high standards. It emphasized intensifying efforts to implement livelihood-related projects such as the renovation of old urban residential communities, the construction of complete communities, the improvement of property service quality, the environmental remediation of back alleys and lanes, the development of pocket parks, and the opening and sharing of green spaces. It called for making great efforts to solve the most pressing difficulties and problems faced by the people, such as the installation of elevators, parking, and charging, striving to make people’s urban life more convenient, comfortable, and beautiful, and seizing the momentum to open up a new landscape in the modernization and construction of people-oriented cities. (China Construction News) [The “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai” Issued] The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization has issued the “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai.” It mentions promoting breakthroughs in key and core technologies. Support will be provided for breakthroughs in technologies such as knowledge graph integration and text-to-3D parts design, focusing on frontier fields including industrial vertical large models, AI programming large models, physical AI, industrial agents, industrial software, and the industrial Internet, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan. For the R&D of comprehensive security solutions for industrial large models and agents, a maximum support of 10 million yuan will be provided. The measures aim to reduce the cost of using intelligent elements. Industrial intelligent computing cloud platforms are encouraged to provide manufacturing enterprises with low-code agent development platforms and free trials of industrial agents, distribute platform token trial coupons, and introduce computing power benefit packages for enterprises. Support will be given for renting non-affiliated intelligent computing resources to carry out the R&D and application of industrial large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 40 million yuan. Supports using third-party large models or private deployment of third-party large models to advance industrial vertical applications, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. Supports purchasing high-quality corpora for the R&D and application of industrial vertical large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) On the dollar: The US dollar index edged up 0.03% overnight to 100.76. On the weekly chart: The US dollar index fell for the week, down 0.2%. According to the latest survey, US consumer sentiment surged to a five-month high in early July, boosted by falling gasoline prices. The survey results released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July rose to 54.4 from 49.5 in June, compared with market expectations of 51. Gasoline prices fell steadily from June through early July, effectively easing household budget pressures. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have since begun to push oil prices higher and cloud the inflation outlook further. The survey covered the period from June 23 to July 13, but the report noted that over 70% of responses were completed before the US airstrikes against Iran in early July. The improvement in consumer sentiment was broad-based across age, income groups, and political affiliations. (from Wallstreetcn APP) US housing starts surged in June after a sharp drop the previous month, driven by a rebound in apartment construction. Official data released Friday showed that housing starts increased 19% to an annualized rate of 1.43 million units, the highest since March and exceeding economists' expectations. Starts for multifamily housing jumped over 76% to an annualized rate of 532,000 units, following a plunge of nearly 40% in the prior month. Meanwhile, single-family starts slipped 0.2%, declining again after builders experienced a sluggish spring. The rebound in multifamily construction underscores the volatility of monthly data, especially in the apartment sector. However, high home prices and elevated mortgage rates have been weighing on demand for single-family homes, factors that may be supporting apartment demand. At the same time, single-family builders have generally faced high inventory and weak demand. This has forced many builders to attract buyers through sales incentives. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said that the dollar has been supported this year by safe-haven inflows and market pricing of Fed rate hikes, but these factors are already reflected in the exchange rate, so the dollar is set to resume its multi-year depreciation trend. Her baseline forecast is that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Mokuta said the risk of a rate hike remains. Even if a hike occurs, it has already been priced into the dollar and would therefore not have much additional impact; whereas if a rate hike fails to materialize, it would weaken the dollar. As concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist, the dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China’s one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for July 20, Germany June PPI MoM, Canada June CPI MoM, US June Conference Board Leading Index MoM, Switzerland June trade balance, UK May three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US ADP employment change for the week ending July 4, UK June CPI MoM, UK June RPI MoM, China’s June SWIFT share of the Chinese yuan in global payments, Australia June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, UK July CBI industrial orders balance, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate decision on July 23, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate decision on July 23, Canada May retail sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, Eurozone July consumer confidence preliminary, UK July GfK consumer confidence, Japan June core CPI YoY, Germany August GfK consumer confidence, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France July manufacturing PMI flash, Germany July manufacturing PMI flash, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July services PMI flash, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash, US July S&P Global services PMI flash, and US June new home sales annualized, among other data. Also next week, attention will be on: the ECB interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde’s monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures surged, with WTI up 4.46% and Brent up 4.78%. Weekly: WTI futures gained for a second straight week, up 14.51% for the week; Brent futures gained for two consecutive weeks, up 16.12%. On Friday, the Middle East situation deteriorated further, and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts drove a sharp rally in crude oil. Data released by Kpler, an international market service provider, on the 17th showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weaken on the 16th, with confirmed transits falling to 8 vessels, the lowest in nearly three weeks. (From Wallstreetcn APP) IEA Executive Director Birol Fatih warned on the 16th that if oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz are not restored within weeks, global energy security will be in jeopardy. According to UK sources, Birol said at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations that oil supply security remains a key concern, and if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve in the coming weeks, the world should be worried. He said the measures taken by some countries "cannot last forever"; even if the US significantly increases oil production, it will be far from enough to offset the supply gap caused by the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News) Oilfield services company Baker Hughes said US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week, the first such streak since early June, bringing the total count to its highest since April 2025. As an early indicator of future output, the total rig count rose by 7 to 588 in the week to July 17. Baker Hughes said this week's increase pushed the total rig count up by 44 rigs, or 8%, compared to the same period last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by 7 to 452 this week, the highest since May 2025; natural gas rigs were unchanged at 126, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 10. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Notably: NYMEX WTI August crude oil futures will be affected by contract rollover, with the final floor trading completed at 2:30 on July 22 and the final electronic trading completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiry and rollover announcements to manage risks. In addition, for some trading platforms, the WTI contract expiry is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiry; please be attentive. Recommended Reading:

This week (July 13-16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of copper prices retreating after rapid rises, ongoing reverse-invoicing compliance constraints, and deepening high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, up nearly 2,000 yuan/mt from the start of the week. However, copper scrap prices were supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, so the weekly price fluctuation was less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between primary metal and scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, up more than 2,200 yuan/mt from the previous weekend. The widening spread was entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode. The resistance of copper scrap to decline was a key supply-side feature this week, which directly spurred hedging-related purchase demand from secondary copper rod enterprises. The supply side continued the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026. The first underlying constraint was reverse-invoicing compliance requirements: aftershocks from compliance inspections in Jiangxi and Hubei in south China persisted, and invoice quotas remained restricted in Shuyang, Jiangsu, leaving available compliant and deductible copper scrap persistently tight. The second was that after Document 770 eliminated irregular local tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and medium-sized copper scrap traders that previously relied on subsidies were continuously exiting the market, and overall available supply contracted markedly compared with the same period in previous years. Additionally, suppliers generally held a psychological defense of not selling cheap before copper prices break below 100,000 yuan/mt, and the selling pace throughout the week closely followed copper price fluctuations. At the start of the week when copper prices pulled back, strong hold-back sentiment prevailed, and tight supply left secondary copper rod enterprises struggling to find low-priced material. In mid-week when copper prices surged above 105,000 yuan/mt, suppliers’ willingness to sell at fixed prices increased, but because downstream scrap-using sectors had weak orders in the off-season and low acceptance of high prices, sales did not occur in large volumes. Most material was purchased by secondary copper rod enterprises using a hedging logic of buying raw material and shorting futures, not for actual production restocking. Many rod enterprises stopped pricing directly after purchasing enough to meet daily demand in the morning session and did not chase higher prices to buy. At the end of the week copper prices consolidated and pulled back, suppliers switched back to hold-back mode, and supply tightened again. Regional divergence persisted. In south China, due to compliance costs and slow capital turnover, bare bright copper purchase prices were 400-600 yuan/mt lower than in the north, maintaining the unusual structure of different prices for the same material. Traders maintained a low-inventory strategy of quick turnover, not daring to stockpile and bet on rising prices. The issue of payment collection cycles extending beyond two weeks remained unresolved, further limiting the release of supply elasticity. The demand side remained overall weak, with secondary copper rod enterprises reporting scarce new orders throughout the week. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod surged to 1,510 yuan/mt mid-week, touching the critical line of economic viability, but lacked sustainability and pulled back to 950 yuan/mt by the week's end. Meanwhile, secondary copper rods remained at a premium to copper futures due to rigid raw material costs. New orders at terminal wire and cable enterprises were weak, and they still held wait-and-see expectations that "copper prices have further downside room," with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand in pulses. Throughout the week, copper scrap transactions were largely driven by copper price fluctuations and hedging demand, while restocking volume for actual production was minimal. After copper prices pulled back at the week's end, rod enterprises' purchase willingness weakened further. The market displayed a weak equilibrium where "when copper prices rise, suppliers sell and rod enterprises collect for hedging; when copper prices fall, suppliers hold back and rod enterprises wait for lower prices." Currently, the market remains constrained by the dual restrictions of compliant invoices and off-season demand. Going forward, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap stabilizes above 1,500 yuan/mt and the implementation rules for reverse invoicing become clearer, this may trigger the release of some rigid demand; otherwise, the weak transaction pattern will persist.

On July 17, an aluminum producer in Xinjiang experienced a pot leakage accident, where high-temperature molten aluminum ignited a fire in the plant, causing some capacity to be suspended. It is reported that the enterprise has an operating capacity of 800,000 mt/year.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] First Bauxite has announced a change of ownership, with private investment group HSCM Bermuda acquiring a controlling interest in the company. The new ownership is expected to support the advancement of First Bauxite's Bonasika bauxite mine and refractory-grade bauxite projects in Guyana, while the company continues to focus on supplying high-value non-metallurgical bauxite markets.

Gold comes under pressure International and domestic gold prices recorded a sharp decline in June. The international price 2 fell by more than 11% to around US$4,000/oz, its lowest level since October, while domestic price 3 declined by around 10% to near INR141,000/10g, a six-month low. Although prices have recovered marginally since then, international gold price remains nearly 7% lower on a year-to-date basis. In contrast, domestic price is up around 6% y-t-d, supported by the 9% import duty hike in May and the INR depreciation against the US dollar. A stronger US dollar, intensifying expectations of US rate hikes, and a rotation towards equities in Western markets have weighed on gold prices. At the same time, the pullback in prices has provided a buying opportunity to those waiting to enter the market, cushioning the decline in prices. Chart 1: Gold weakens Month-end LBMA Price PM and MCX spot gold price changes and movement* *As of 14 July 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Ample supply keeps domestic prices at a discount Gold price discounts in the domestic market have narrowed considerably from the elevated levels following the import duty hike in May and early June, indicating a gradual normalisation of market conditions. Discounts averaged around US$20/oz to the landed price 4 during the first two weeks of July, significantly lower than the peak discount of nearly US$150/oz recorded in May. Domestic prices briefly traded close to parity with the landed price in late June and early July, indicating an improving market balance. Discounts have widened since to US$40/oz as of mid-July. The prevailing level of discount reflects the availability of ample domestic supply relative to demand. Industry interactions indicate that the rise in old gold exchange for new jewellery has increased the supply of gold in the market. Chart 2: Discounts recede NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 14 July 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Jewellery buying gains traction Following a month-long lull from mid-May to mid-June, driven by seasonally softer demand, an inauspicious period, 5 policy measures and the Prime Minister’s appeal to limit gold purchases , consumer demand has reportedly begun to recover. Industry feedback suggests that while overall demand remains subdued, consumer buying has picked up in recent weeks, led primarily by jewellery. In contrast, bar and coin demand appears to have cooled. The pullback in gold prices and the relative price stability are said to be stimulating jewellery purchases. The promotional campaign by retailers, including discounts, exchange offers, flexible payment terms, etc., have also been supporting sales. Notably, demand has not been limited to wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers too have been receiving order bookings from retailers in preparation for the festive season from August. At the same time, softer prices have tempered demand for bars and coins, which are typically bought for investment purposes and tend to attract stronger interest during periods of rising prices. Meanwhile, the exchange of old gold jewellery has gained further traction following the import duty hike in mid-May. Retailers report that exchange volumes have risen by a further 10–20%, with some indicating that old gold exchanges now account for as much as 70% of jewellery sales. Healthy performance of listed jewellers in April–June quarter Major listed jewellery retailers 6 reported a strong April–June quarter despite an inauspicious period that typically tempers purchases. Revenue growth was broadly in the high 30–60% y/y range, supported by regional festivals, the summer wedding season and Akshay Tritiya 7 during the early part of the quarter. Demand was broad, with plain gold and studded jewellery registering double-digit sales growth. Retailers also reported growth both in customer additions and average ticket sizes. Old gold exchange for new jewellery continued to rise on average accounting for somewhere between 43–55% of sales during the quarter, aided in part by promotional and marketing campaigns. These retailers continued with their store expansions, adding between 8 and 33 stores across the country during the quarter. The continued pace of store openings can be seen as reflecting industry confidence in the medium-term outlook for jewellery demand. Price pullback drives ETF inflows Indian gold ETFs recorded a rebound in June, in contrast to the global trend of outflows , as investors bought into the price dips. Net inflows during the month were INR34.4bn (US$356mn), the highest since February. Holdings increased by 2.2t to 119t, in line with our estimates, while the cumulative AUM fell 8% m/m, reflecting the decline in gold prices during the month. The price pullback appears to have been viewed as a buying opportunity by investors, with inflows remaining healthy in early July. During 1–10 July, net inflows are estimated at INR12.1bn (US$127mn). Investor participation also broadened, with 135k new folios (accounts) being added during the month, taking the total number of accounts to 12.5mn. Chart 3: Gold ETF flows rebound Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end June 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Increased buying of digital gold Digital gold purchases through the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) rebounded in June after moderation in the previous month. Both transaction value and estimated volumes reached a three-month high, pointing to renewed investor interest. Transaction value rose 4% m/m to INR25.5bn (US$269mn), while volumes are estimated to have increased 9% m/m to 1.7t. Purchases during the month were above the 17-month average of 1.4t and remained within the higher-transacting category of UPI, suggesting that demand in the digital gold segment continues to be resilient. Chart 4: Resilient demand in digital gold Purchase of digital gold, by value and estimated volume Source: NPCI, World Gold Council Imports ease amid soft demand and recycled supply Gold imports weakened further in June, declining for a second consecutive month. At US$1.97bn, imports were down 42% m/m and the lowest since June 2025. However, import value was 7% higher y/y, driven largely by higher gold prices, with the average landed cost of gold rising 38% from a year ago. 8 Import volumes in June are estimated at 16–22t, down from 29t in May and 25t in June 2025. The decline in import volumes is reflective of softer demand, elevated inventories in the supply chain, and supply from the exchange and sale of old gold. Old gold supply has risen since the import duty hike, lowering the need for fresh imports. Consequently, gold’s share of total merchandise imports fell to 3% in June, well below the 17% recorded in January. Chart 5: Gold imports hit one-year low Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Footnotes 1 LBMA Gold Price and MCX Spot Gold Price as of 14 July 2026. 2 LBMA Gold Price PM. 3 MCX Spot Gold Price. 4 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import tax. 5 Adhik Maas from 17 May to 15 June 2026. 6 Titan Company Ltd, Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd , Senco Gold Ltd , PN Gadgil Jewellers Limited 7 Akshay Tritiya (19-20 April) is traditionally regarded as an auspicious and key demand period for gold. 8 Landed cost is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/07/india-gold-market-update-mixed-demand-signals

SMM July 17 News: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were mainly at a discount to the SMM #1 lead average price. Smelters held back from selling due to losses, and price fluctuations during the week caused the discount/premium range to fluctuate between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 30 yuan/mt. Industry losses widened first and then narrowed. As of July 17, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for secondary lead enterprises stood at -317 yuan/mt for large-scale producers and -497 yuan/mt for small and medium-scale producers. Next week, expectations for production cuts in secondary lead will support lead prices, and premiums/discounts may return to parity territory. However, the battery off-season combined with high scrap battery costs will make it difficult for losses to improve.

SMM, July 17 – This week, secondary lead prices fell initially before rebounding, and suppliers' willingness to sell was poor. This was mainly due to a shortage of scrap batteries and smelters holding back from selling because of losses. Imported crude lead offers from outside China were firm, while downstream refined lead and alloy enterprises showed weak acceptance. Bargaining room was narrow, and transactions were relatively sluggish. In addition, some imported crude lead had long shipping schedules, with arrivals expected at ports between late August and early September. In summary, SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead transactions to follow market-based pricing.

SMM July 17 news: This week, scrap battery purchase prices fell sharply alongside lead prices, with recyclers holding inventory and taking a wait-and-see stance, unwilling to sell at low prices. Meanwhile, smelters made only just-in-time procurement of scrap batteries due to weak buying sentiment from downstream battery enterprises, making it difficult to support significant price increases. Looking ahead to next week, attention should be paid to smelter production conditions and their demand for raw materials. If demand remains sluggish, the upside room for scrap battery prices will be very limited.

Chilean copper miner Antofagasta reported on July 15 that its Q2 copper production edged down, reiterated its full-year production guidance, and expects stronger H2 output to drive achievement of the full-year target. In the three months to June 30, the company produced 142,000 mt of copper, down 0.7% QoQ, as a decline in output at the Antucoya mine offset performance at other mines. Q2 net cash cost climbed nearly 26% QoQ to $1.36 per pound. Antofagasta said quarterly production is expected to ramp up gradually over the remainder of the year, and maintained its 2026 copper production guidance at 650,000 to 700,000 mt and net cash cost guidance at $1.15 to $1.35 per pound.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that copper miners producing more than one-seventh of the world’s primary copper supply are now mired in turmoil in the sulphuric acid market, a crisis triggered by conflicts including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The agency notes that while the long-term supply outlook for copper has improved slightly, the metal still faces multiple severe challenges in the short term. In its newly released "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026" report, the Paris-based IEA says that the short- and medium-term outlook for the copper market has sharply deteriorated over the past year.