SMM, July 6 news: In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%. Spot side, in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity. Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamental side ► Production: June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady. The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM. Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely. ►Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources. ►Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks. China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June. SMM Outlook On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices. Recommended reading:

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is thrilled to announce that our flagship event 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum was successfully held at the Hotel Novotel Muenchen Messe, Munich, Germany on June 23! Focused on the front-line European PV+ESS market, the forum brought together high-ranking executives and veteran industry experts from the global new energy industry chain, serving as a professional platform for in-depth China-Europe PV+ESS industry collaboration and dialogue. Opening Remarks From PV Boom to Storage-Driven Power Markets in Europe Guest Speaker: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Drawing on the real landscape of Europe's energy transition, Mr. Liao systematically addressed four major industry topics: Analyzing the market dynamics behind the surge in PV capacity and frequent negative electricity prices; Reviewing new energy storage policies in key countries such as Germany and the UK, including Germany's energy storage strategy, the UK's capacity market reform, and new grid connection queue regulations; Comparing subsidy incentives and self-consumption revenue models for commercial & industrial and residential ESS across different countries; Examining the current European regulatory framework and its profound implications for the global expansion of China's PV+ESS industry chain. He noted that the industry's logic has fundamentally shifted: PV is no longer just about module manufacturing, nor is it limited to PV + energy storage hardware sales. What we are discussing is not only about cost reduction and efficiency gains in hardware, but also about how to leverage energy storage to enhance generation asset returns, control operation and maintenance costs, and optimize enterprise-wide energy asset life cycle management. Keynote Speech: How China’s Export Tax Policy and Raw Material Volatility Affect PV and Battery Pricing? Guest Speaker: Ryan Tzy Tze Yang, PV Modules and End Use Market Analyst, SMM Ryan pointed out that, hit by the dual cost shock from the cancellation of export tax rebates and raw material price fluctuations, module export quotations rose to around $0.12/W in January. Higher costs are prompting overseas clients to prioritize high-end technology pathways, accelerating the industry’s product mix shift toward high-efficiency modules. Additionally, polysilicon and silver account for a significant share of cell manufacturing costs, and their price movements remain the core variables driving cell cost fluctuations. Global PV installations entered a period of adjustment in 2026 : constrained by grid integration bottlenecks across major regions and tightening policies in multiple countries, new PV installations worldwide are expected to temporarily decline to 435 GW in 2026. Amid this deep adjustment cycle driven by infrastructure and policy constraints, the structure of end-use applications is expected to show resilience, with utility-scale projects maintaining a stable share of approximately 56%. Panel Discussion: EU Solar Projects and China’s PV Supply Chain – Opportunities and Challenges Moderator: Cleo Zhou, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM Panelists: Ksenia Dray, Global Solar Supply Chain Leader, Res Group Pierre-Louis Raust, Head of Design and EPC Procurement, Power Capital Renewable Energy Allen Xu, Deputy General Manager, Global Marketing, Gokin Solar Co., Ltd. Huang Gengwen, Executive Dean, Module Department, Crystalline Silicon Research Institute The guests noted that the lengthy construction cycle of Europe’s local PV industry chain, wild swings in energy and raw material costs, protracted project approval and grid connection processes, local manufacturing policies that inflate supply chain layout costs, differences in technology roadmap choices and compliance standards between European and Asian industrial systems, the lack of end-user control over upstream resource prices, coupled with capacity diversion by emerging markets, are the main obstacles hindering China-EU cooperation in advancing EU PV projects. In terms of opportunities, the China-EU PV industry is highly complementary, with China offering mature capacity, complete system solutions, cost hedging tools, localized production line support, and mass production cost reduction capabilities, while Europe provides cutting-edge innovative technologies; this division of labor can jointly achieve Europe’s PV goals. Meanwhile, new technologies, customized solutions, and hedging instruments can mitigate Europe’s challenges with costs and project implementation timelines. Keynote Speech: How Technology Choices Shape BESS Economics Guest Speaker: Michael Strobel, Business Director Europe, Great Power Three Core Dimensions of BESS Economics Safety Value: Safeguard asset security and ensure business continuity and stable operation; Investment Return: Enhance life cycle return rates and reduce the levelized cost of energy storage; O&M Management: Ensure reliable equipment operation and cut full-cycle O&M expenses. High Safety Is the Core Principle of BESS Battery Cell : Use of high-quality LFP battery cells; advanced aerogel insulation technology to block thermal propagation; certified to GB, UL, IEC, UN, MSDS, and RoHS standards. Battery Pack: Battery Pack: Aerogel insulation layers block thermal propagation between battery cells. Fuse protection circuits reduce short-circuit risks; Battery Cluster: multi-level (fuses/contactors/disconnect switches) protection; Comprehensive Protection: overcharge/overdischarge/short-circuit protection. Panel Discussion: BESS Project Development in Europe: Grid, Permits, and Reality on the Ground Moderator: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Panelists: Jan Fousek, CEO, Czech Energy Storage Association Gery Bonduelle, Chief of Business Development, Verkor Antonio Montoto, Head of Storage, Greenvolt Power Joanne Xu, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM The guests noted that, at the grid level, energy storage demand across European countries far exceeds the existing grid capacity. While the responsibilities of TSOs and DSOs are clearly defined, grid operators lack sufficient resources and face approval delays, and foreign investment access is restricted with local content requirements. Policies vary widely across countries; Germany adopts a first-come, first-served mechanism for grid connection quotas, leading to clear regional market differentiation. Moreover, the permitting and implementation stage is fraught with obstacles. Large-scale centralized grid connections bring equipment compatibility and logistics challenges, such as the transportation of large-capacity storage containers. Geopolitical shifts, policy changes, and ongoing fluctuations in raw material and electricity prices constantly erode project returns. The core Central European market is fragmented across multiple countries. As a 10- to 20-year long-term investment, simply chasing low-cost equipment is not advisable. At the same time, future additional electricity loads will further strain the existing grid capacity. In response to these pain points, the speakers also proposed practical solutions: on the one hand, establish an industry association to interface with power grid operators in a unified manner, conduct pre-review of project documentation in advance, and streamline the review process; on the other hand, coordinate multiple parties including EPC contractors, the power grid, equipment suppliers, and financial institutions. For development outside China, rely on local partners to leverage the complementary strengths of the China–Europe industrial ecosystem. Enterprises can also effectively reduce risks by completing end-to-end preparations in advance, establishing a pre-operations and maintenance system, and implementing compliance support in phases. In the long run, grid connection approvals, delays in power grid capacity expansion, and price fluctuations remain the industry’s core challenges. However, the energy storage track offers ample investment opportunities; supported by integrated system solutions, new technology iterations, and industry collaboration, deployment challenges can be gradually alleviated. Meanwhile, the speakers also expect the market to see more high-quality standalone energy storage projects with sustainable and stable operations. That's the end of our 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum. Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!

In June 2026, the phosphorus chemical industry chain underwent a profound round of repricing under extreme cost pressures. Four keywords — "Surge, Hold, Strain, Expand" — capture the full-month landscape.

The northern region serves as the core hub of China’s wire and cable industry. Building on its industrial heritage, full-chain supporting capabilities, and favorable policies under the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development initiative, it has established a complete industrial cluster that integrates raw material processing, wire and cable production, new material R&D, and intelligent equipment manufacturing. The region’s annual output value of the wire and cable sector exceeds 100 billion yuan, supported by a solid industrial foundation and broad market potential. However, compared with the established industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the northern wire and cable industry still faces shortcomings such as fragmented industrial resources, weak industry-academia-research collaboration, and insufficient risk resilience across the industry chain. Breaking down collaboration barriers has thus become key to upgrading industry quality. will be held on July 23-24, 2026, at the Crowne Plaza Qingdao Jinshui, Shandong . The conference will focus on three major themes: industrial collaboration, green intelligence, and globalization. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) , in partnership with Jiangsu Guoja Conductor Technology Co., Ltd., invites clients from across the entire industry chain to gather, explore industry opportunities, and promote quality upgrades in the northern wire and cable industry. Click to attend. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Founded in 1999, Jiangsu Guoja Conductor Technology Co., Ltd. is an enterprise integrating the R&D, design, manufacturing, and sales of five types of flexible aluminum alloy conductors. Driven by market demand and years of product development, the company has formed a distinctive product portfolio. Its main products include flexible aluminum alloy conductors for PV power generation, flexible aluminum alloy conductors for wind turbine twist cables, flexible aluminum alloy conductors for NEV wiring harnesses, and flexible aluminum alloy conductors for aerospace applications. Aluminum Alloy PV Cable — DC Side Copper-Aluminum Transition Connection Solution The company has successively obtained IATF 16949 certification, ISO 9001 quality management system certification, ISO 14001 environmental management system certification, OHSAS 18001 occupational health and safety management system certification, TÜV certification, PCCC certification, and other product certifications, and has been awarded an AAA enterprise credit rating certificate. It also holds 6 invention patents and 42 utility model patents, successfully resolving the copper-aluminum transition issues between aluminum alloy cables on the DC side of PV power stations and PV modules, or between DC-side aluminum alloy cables and inverters, thereby ensuring safe and reliable connections. The company is equipped with over 20 sets of advanced testing equipment and employs several professional testing personnel. Its advanced detection instruments ensure that products comply with IEC international standards, GB national standards, ASTM US standards, JIS Japanese standards, and customer-specific requirements. The company currently maintains cooperation with renowned enterprises from multiple countries such as Australia, South Korea, France, and Denmark, and has deep collaboration with leading players in China’s wire and cable industry. The company always regards quality and service as the foundation of its survival. It conducts strict quality inspections from raw material intake to finished product delivery, and organizes a professional technical team to provide clients with a one-stop service covering pre-sale, in-sale, and after-sale support, earning widespread trust and acclaim from users. Contact Zhang Ting 188 6147 6777 SMM Conference Contact Zhang Guolei 166 0190 0190 zhangguolei@smm.cn

The North is the core hinterland of China's wire and cable industry. Leveraging its industrial heritage, full-chain support, and favorable Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policies, it has established a complete industrial cluster integrating raw material processing, wire and cable production, new material R&D, and smart equipment manufacturing. The regional wire and cable industry's annual output value exceeds 100 billion yuan, with a solid industrial foundation and vast market potential. Compared with the leading industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the northern wire and cable industry still faces shortcomings such as scattered industrial resources, weak industry-university-research linkages, and insufficient industry chain resilience. Breaking down collaboration barriers has become key to industry upgrading. will be held on July 23-24, 2026 at Crowne Plaza Qingdao Jinshui, Shandong . The conference focuses on three major themes: industrial collaboration, green intelligence, and globalization. SMM joins hands with Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. to invite customers from across the entire industry chain to gather, explore industry opportunities, and boost the quality upgrading of the northern wire and cable industry. Click to attend, and we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Good Conductors, Made by Danshu Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. was founded in January 2024, located in the cable industry cluster area of Ningjin County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province. It is a modern enterprise specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of aluminum and aluminum alloy conductors. Its main business includes non-ferrous metal rolling, aluminum conductors, aluminum alloy conductors, and other core products, widely used in high and low voltage power cables, wires, and other fields. It provides customers with customized production and spot supply services. Relying on its regional industrial advantages and mature production system, the company adheres to quality-first and integrity-based operations. It has standardized production management, comprehensive quality inspection procedures, and import/export operation qualifications, committed to providing stable and reliable aluminum product solutions for clients in the power and cable industries. Serving and empowering customers, "Pioneering and innovating, pursuing excellence" is the constant pursuit of Hebei Danshu Aluminum Co., Ltd. We sincerely look forward to cooperating with both new and long-established customers to create a better future together! Contact Zhang Cong 193 3191 4111 SMM Conference Contact Zhang Guolei 166 0190 0190 zhangguolei@smm.cn

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened higher with a gap at $1,870.5/mt, drifted higher during the Asian session; after entering the European session, bulls added positions while bears exited, and LME lead hit a high of $1,898/mt. It moved sideways near the close and finally settled at $1,888/mt, up 1.04%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at a low of 15,885 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily average line, with an intraday high of 15,965 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 15,930 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. On the macro front: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that after last month's rate hike, inflation has pulled back with the plunge in crude oil prices, and the central bank is now in a favorable position. As tax revenue fell short of expectations, Germany plans to increase its borrowing target for 2027. Seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided to increase crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day on average in August. South Korea plans to use the tax dividends from the chip industry to set up a future fund to invest in economic growth engines and support the younger generation. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development." In June, the RatingDog China Services PMI stood at 54.1, down 0.3 percentage points from May, in expansion territory for the 42nd consecutive month. Three departments: adjust the vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs. Hon Hai: June sales were NT$821.8 billion, up 52.1% YoY. Spot fundamentals: After stopping falling, SHFE lead rebounded, and suppliers actively quoted and sold, but after the lead price rose, downstream enterprises engaged in more negotiations, resulting in stagnant deals. Meanwhile, quotations for EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters saw lower premiums/discounts, with mainstream producing areas offering at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, some smelters were in reduced or suspended production, with limited circulating supply in the market. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, and downstream customers' rigid demand shifted toward primary lead. Also, after prices rebounded, dip-buying interest waned, and market trading was sluggish. Inventory: On July 3, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,300 mt to 293,150 mt; as of July 2, total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM reached 72,500 mt, up 1,300 mt from June 29. Today's lead price forecast: Last week, amid a bearish fund frenzy, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing widening losses for lead smelters and forcing secondary lead enterprises to reduce or suspend production again. Signs of bear exit then emerged, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, we need to watch downstream enterprises' purchasing dynamics. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, vigilance is needed against the bears that have not yet exited.