This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

[Flat Products] HRC Holds Steady While Other Flat Products Edge Lower on Exports Today HRC export prices held broadly steady while other flat-product export prices edged lower day on day, with HRC concluded at 491-500 USD/tonne. With the Strait of Hormuz situation fluctuating, fresh inquiries for HRC, heavy plate and other products emerged from that region this week, but sellers report actual deals remain limited. Separately, about 10000 tonnes of Q195 HRC for re-export was sold to Vietnam recently at 500-503 USD/tonne CFR.

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

HRC prices continued to decline this week, resulting in sluggish transactions. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance increased this week, leading to a slight decrease in overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC deteriorated significantly this week, as plum rain and high temperatures suppressed cargo pick-up. Downstream manufacturing entered the off-season, with cautious procurement. Coupled with falling steel prices, this exacerbated the market's wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of inventory, SMM's nationwide social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses (large sample) stood at 4.2912 million mt this week, up 64,500 mt WoW, up 1.53% WoW. By region, the inventory buildup in Northeast, Central, and North China was greater than in East China, while South China saw slight destocking. Cost side, the average ore price edged lower, while the eighth round of coke price increases took effect, providing slightly stronger cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to rise, but the weak reality of finished steel products is gradually emerging. The supply-demand imbalance is widening, leaving room for further HRC price declines. Overall, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to trade in the 3,260-3,360 range next week.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, HRC prices were mainly stable, while export prices for other sheets & plates saw day-on-day declines. HRC transaction prices were at $491-500/mt. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz fluctuated. This week, there were some new inquiries for HRC, medium-thickness plates, and other products from that region. However, actual transactions remained relatively limited, according to seller feedback. Additionally, about 10,000 mt of Q195 HRC for re-export was recently sold to Vietnam at a CFR price of $500-503/mt.

[SMM Steel] Market feedback: Currently, the transaction price for Q235B medium-thickness plates with specifications of 14-30mm and August shipment is $530/mt(deal), with shipment from Jingtang Port and arrival in the Middle East.

[SMM Nickel Flash] June 26 news: SMM's high-grade NPI market sentiment factor stood at 2.12, down 0.06 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.44, down 0.08 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.79, down 0.04 MoM. Futures continued to drop today, and the SHFE/LME price ratio advantage of nickel plate became prominent, leading to an overall weakening of the NPI market. The previous tight spot cargo logic was questioned, bargaining games intensified in the market, and trading cooled significantly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the market supply-demand structure may undergo marginal changes. On one hand, during the day, some traders will have replenishment needs due to prior overselling, and with the concentrated release of demand to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, available low-priced supplies will be quickly absorbed. Subsequently, the available spot copper in the market is expected to remain tight. On the other hand, from a market sentiment perspective, copper prices are currently at relatively low levels, and suppliers generally hold an optimistic outlook on future spot premiums, showing weak willingness to sell at low prices, which provides support to spot premiums. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, and the discount may narrow slightly.

[SMM Daily Review: Nickel Plate SHFE/LME Price Ratio Advantage Prominent; NPI Market Trading Continues to Weaken] June 26 news, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor stood at 2.52, down 0.07 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor was 1.83, down 0.03 MoM.

I. Both Rebar and HRC Profits Plunged in June Since mid-to-late May, steel prices have trended lower amid weakening downstream transactions as the off-season set in. From June to date, SMM spot prices for rebar, hot-rolled coil (HRC), and cold-rolled plate in east China fell by 1.5% to 2% from May levels. On the cost side, in June, the average of the 61% Fe port spot index fell 6.7% from May, while coke prices surged, with spot market prices up nearly 10% from May. Ore prices declined but coke prices strengthened, and steel scrap prices moved sideways. This resulted in average steel mill costs in June edging down only 0.1%–0.3% from May, while steel prices dropped far more than raw material costs, causing steel mill profits to narrow sharply. According to SMM data, as of June 25, profits at blast furnace steel mills in east China for rebar, HRC, and cold-rolled products all declined by varying degrees from their early-May peaks. Rebar mt profit dropped from 35 yuan to -80 yuan, down 328%; HRC mt profit fell from 232 yuan to 70 yuan, down 70%; and cold-rolled mt profit slipped from 192 yuan to 100 yuan, down around 48%. Figure 1 – Profit Trends of Blast Furnace Steel Mills in East China During this rapid profit contraction, the cost composition of pig iron shifted: the share of iron ore costs fell from 56% to 53%, the share of coke costs rose from 30% to 33%, while the share of PCI coal and other costs changed relatively little. Rising coke prices squeezed steel mill profit margins. II. Profit Outlook In the short term, on the steel side, end-use demand will be limited during the off-season, and inventories will gradually build up from July. Steel’s own fundamentals are unlikely to support price strength. On the cost side, ore prices are expected to remain under pressure as the market anticipates that maintenance impacts at some regional steel mills could widen. For coke, spot prices still have a chance of seeing a ninth round of increases take effect. Overall, steel mill profits are expected to have some further room to narrow in the near term.