According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's pig iron production from January to February 2026 was 137.7 million mt, down 2.7% YoY; crude steel production was 160.34 million mt, down 3.6% YoY; and steel product production was 221.19 million mt, down 1.1% YoY.

Today, the Dalian iron ore futures showed a strong trend, with the most-traded I2605 contract closing at 754.5 yuan/mt, up 0.87% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by 4-8 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders' enthusiasm for quotations was moderate, and steel mills purchased as needed with limited inquiries. Overall, the spot trading atmosphere was mediocre. From a fundamental perspective, March marks the first full month of post-holiday resumption of work and production, and the recovery in end-use demand will drive a gradual increase in steel consumption. As a result, pig iron production at steel mills is also expected to see some growth. It is worth noting that during the first week after the holiday, the willingness of steel mills to restock was generally weak, focusing mainly on depleting existing in-factory inventory. By entering March, in-factory inventories have dropped to relatively low levels, coupled with an increase in hot metal production, it is expected that overall iron ore demand will show a more noticeable recovery. Macro perspective, with the Two Sessions approaching in early March, as the first major meeting of the '15th Five-Year Plan', there are positive expectations regarding policy direction and monetary arrangements. Market sentiment leans optimistic, which is generally beneficial for iron ore. In terms of news, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East brings significant uncertainty and risks. Although the Middle East is not a core production area for iron ore, the rise in crude oil prices is expected to directly translate into higher freight premiums for Brazilian and Australian iron ore arriving in China (CFR), thereby increasing the cost of iron ore imports and supporting prices. However, in the long term, this may drag down steel exports and squeeze steel mill profits, thus weighing on ore prices. Therefore, in the short term, iron ore prices are likely to follow a pattern of rising first and then falling.

Today, DCE iron ore futures weakened and fluctuated rangebound, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 695.5, down 0.5% for the day. Traders sold goods according to market conditions, with some traders holding large volumes of spot resources selling at lower prices. Steel mills purchased as needed, and the market transaction sentiment was moderate. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in the Shandong region were around 707-710 yuan/mt, down 5-8 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. In the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 718-722 yuan/mt, down 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. According to the SMM survey, on June 18, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.70%, down 0.45 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sampled steel mills was 2.4084 million mt, down 6,500 mt MoM. Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that the number of blast furnaces resuming production will be higher than the number undergoing maintenance, leading to a slight increase in overall pig iron production. The overall supply-demand pattern of iron ore remains relatively unchanged. Attention should be paid to the apparent demand for major steel products tomorrow and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on market sentiment. 》Subscribe to view historical spot prices of SMM metals

On June 18, according to SMM's Cost and Profit Statement for Imported Ore, the profit from imported ore slightly declined. SMM's weekly data on the impact from blast furnace maintenance showed that the impact on pig iron production due to blast furnace maintenance this week was 1.1184 million mt, a decrease of 14,500 mt WoW. Pig iron production this week may stabilize after a decline. In the short term, this provides some support for ore prices. However, we should also be cautious about the expected increase in negative feedback caused by high production levels during the off-season. In the short term, ore prices are expected to remain in a stalemate, fluctuating rangebound, and it is anticipated that there will still be some room for the profit from imported ore to decline in the short term.

According to the SMM survey, as of June 18, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.70%, down 0.45 percentage points MoM. The capacity utilisation rate of blast furnaces was 89.10%, down 0.41 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sampled steel mills was 2.4084 million mt, down 6,500 mt MoM.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] Yesterday, rebar futures fluctuated rangebound, closing at 2,981, up 0.17% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, spot prices in most regions remained stable, while prices in a few regions fell by 10 yuan/mt. The market sentiment was one of wait-and-see, with trading performance throughout the day falling short of the previous day. On the fundamental side, EAF steel mills, facing intensified profit losses, saw some mills reducing operating hours or halting production. Blast furnace steel mill profits remained considerable. According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on building materials this week was 1.262 million mt, down 57,000 mt WoW, with supply increasing slightly...

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, affected by environmental protection and inventory accumulation, some coke enterprises have slightly cut production, leading to a tightening of coke supply. Demand side, steel mill profits are moderate, and there have been no large-scale maintenance activities. There is a rigid demand for coke, but pig iron production has peaked. Moreover, steel mills have the intention to continue driving down coke prices, with some controlling the arrival of coke and lacking the willingness to purchase. In summary, the market sentiment is weak, and there is an expectation for a fourth round of coke price cut this week.

Today, DCE iron ore futures pulled back from highs, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 699, down 0.07% for the day. Traders sold goods in line with market conditions; steel mills adopted a wait-and-see attitude and purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was average. The mainstream transaction prices of PB fines in Shandong were around 715 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices; the transaction prices of PB fines in Tangshan were around 730 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. According to SMM's weekly data on the impact of blast furnace maintenance, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production this week was 1.1184 million mt, a decrease of 14,500 mt WoW. Pig iron production this week may stop falling and stabilize. In the short term, this provides some support for ore prices. However, we should also be vigilant about the expected increase in negative feedback triggered by high production during the off-season. In the short term, it is difficult to change the stalemate in ore prices, which are expected to fluctuate rangebound. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, for the week (June 14 to June 20), the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production was...

On June 16, according to the SMM Imported Ore Cost and Profit Statement, the profit from imported ore remained basically flat. As of June 13, SMM data showed that the total inventory at 35 ports was 137.22 million mt, an increase of 1.13 million mt from the previous week. The daily average port cargo pick-up volume of imported ore was 2.909 million mt, a decrease of 107,000 mt from the previous week. Port arrivals increased WoW during this week. However, the daily average pig iron production declined, leading to weaker demand for iron ore concentrates and a downward trend in port cargo pick-up. Looking ahead to next week, the off-season effect will become more pronounced, and steel consumption is expected to weaken further. However, the current decline in pig iron production is relatively small, and the overall demand for iron ore remains high, providing strong support for ore prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound, and the profit from imported ore is expected to remain basically flat in the short term.