Platinum prices were in the doldrums today. On the US-Iran conflict front, the situation remained volatile; on the data front, the strong US non-farm payrolls data released last Friday evening drove expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes sharply higher, and the market expects the Fed to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. In morning trading, the most-traded platinum PT2608 futures contract on GFEX closed at 432.95 yuan/g, down 0.99%, while the inverted spread between the SGE platinum 9995 best ask price and GFEX PT2608 hovered around 8 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum were at a discount of 1 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. According to SMM, most suppliers quoted near parity against the GFEX 2608 contract. Strong import data in recent months kept spot platinum and palladium supply in China relatively ample, and suppliers actively sold. As downstream enterprises purchased more amid the recent continuous decline in platinum prices, most companies indicated they had already stockpiled sufficient quantities, and procurement volumes for platinum and palladium this week decreased WoW. Overall, transactions in the spot platinum market turned subdued today.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 13 – April 17), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 507.4 yuan/gram and closed at 526.25 yuan/gram, up 1.8 yuan/gram or 0.34% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 544.65 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 507.4 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 382.25 yuan/gram and closed at 384.1 yuan/gram, down 4.15 yuan/gram or 1.07% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 402.25 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 380.75 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 17,688 lots with a total turnover of 9.37 billion yuan and open interest of 15,422 lots, an increase of 119 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,322 lots with a total turnover of 3.637 billion yuan and open interest of 7,415 lots, an increase of 199 lots WoW. Geopolitical conflicts: A ten-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday. Trump seized the opportunity to claim that Iran had agreed not to possess nuclear weapons and that US-Iran talks could resume this weekend. He stated that "Iran has agreed to almost all demands" and that a deal would cause oil prices to plunge. However, Iranian officials have not yet responded. US Fed monetary policy: As US-Iran tensions eased temporarily, expectations for interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat. Data side, although US CPI surged significantly, core CPI came in below expectations, reflecting mild underlying inflation, which weakened expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. A Fed rate hike remains a low-probability event. Trade and tariffs: After reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end in April may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. Tax rebate pressures are exacerbating fiscal burdens and reinforcing the weak US dollar logic. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that tariff levels may be restored by early July. South African President Ramaphosa accepted the credentials of new US Ambassador Bozell, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at the end of April, the US may rely on the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry may accelerate the shift from platinum to palladium applications. Nornickel estimated that if trials go smoothly, China's demand will reach 800,000 ounces, accounting for approximately 10% of global supply. Event-wise, continued focus should be placed on changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be given to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector and the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at the end of April. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling remain key variables, and caution is warranted against fluctuations and opening gaps.

On February 26, local time in the US, the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran took place in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman. The talks went through two stages with a break of several hours in between, and a new round of negotiations is expected to take place next week. On February 27, Beijing time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible. The external security risks facing Iran have significantly increased, with multiple countries issuing advisories for their citizens to leave. Given the current security situation in Iran, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Iran reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran and advised those already there to strengthen safety precautions and evacuate as soon as possible. The Chinese Embassies and Consulates in Iran and its neighboring countries will provide necessary assistance for the evacuation of Chinese citizens via commercial flights or land routes. On February 27, platinum and palladium showed a significant rise, with platinum's weekly gain reaching 19.29%, making it a standout in the precious metals futures sector. Market uncertainties brought about by US tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to support the performance of precious metals. Fundamentals side, tight supply provided fundamental support for platinum. Coupled with many market participants' bullish outlook, some suppliers held prices firm, providing sentiment support for the rise in platinum and palladium. As of around 3:58 PM on February 27, the main platinum contract rose 5.34% to 623.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 19.29%; the main palladium contract rose 2.77% to 464.85 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 10.86%. The A-share market responded in kind, with the precious metals sector closing up 3.55% on February 27. On February 27, spot platinum was quoted at 606~610 yuan/gram, with an average price of 608 yuan/gram, up 3.67% from the previous trading day. The post-holiday rise in platinum, besides being supported by macro factors and safe-haven demand, also benefited from tight supply, positive market expectations, and some suppliers holding prices firm. Due to some suppliers' optimistic outlook, they were unwilling to sell at low prices, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. However, the supply-demand relationship has not changed significantly since before the holiday. The post-holiday rise was more driven by optimistic sentiment, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that platinum prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future developments will need to focus on changes in the demand side. Throughout February 2026, platinum and palladium prices experienced a roller-coaster ride amid macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical risks. For the whole month, macro sentiment dominated the pace of fluctuations, with supply-side events reinforcing support, and the structural feature of "strong platinum, weak palladium" continued. At present, geopolitical and macro situations strongly support precious metals: the tense Middle East situation directly boosted safe-haven demand; the downward revision of US GDP coupled with stubborn inflation highlighted gold's value preservation function; the legal battle over tariff policies weakened the US dollar's credibility, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, along with global central banks' gold buying spree, collectively provided a solid bottom for precious metal prices. Fundamentals side, the expansion elasticity of platinum and palladium supply is relatively weak. Since platinum's demand structure is less dependent on traditional fuel vehicle consumption compared to palladium, the supply-demand pattern for platinum is tighter, and it is expected to have strong upward momentum, while palladium is likely to follow platinum in a weaker trend. Risk Warning: US Economic Resilience Exceeds Expectations, US Tariff Adjustments on Platinum and Palladium Exceed Expectations, Geopolitical Risks in Major Production Areas, etc.