July 31, 2026 - This week, ferrochrome market trading was stagnant and prices fell; the chrome ore market was sluggish, with limited inquiries......

China's Pr-Nd alloy output rose 3.74% MoM and 7.57% YoY in July, driven by stronger toll processing in Inner Mongolia. Tight Pr-Nd oxide supply raised raw material costs, squeezing margins and curbing output at some producers. Weak magnet demand cut downstream operating rates by 3% MoM, leaving the market oversupplied. In August, alloy output is expected to rise about 1% MoM, while magnet production may increase 2.65% MoM, improving market balance.

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

SMM July 31 News: The futures stopped rising and edged down today, and the weakness in spot aluminum in South China persisted. Absolute prices remained high. The spot-futures price spread, though expected to weaken, was also elevated. With the weekend approaching and it being month-end, suppliers briefly held prices firm before stepping up shipments to realize profits at high levels. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of 30-10 yuan/mt, down to varying degrees, and discounted supply was ample. On the demand side, downstream users' fear of high prices persisted, leading to sluggish purchases. Traders pushed for lower prices and only made minimal purchases, showing no flexibility beyond fulfilling orders. The oversupply situation continued, and overall transactions were somewhat lackluster. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of 85-125 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

SMM July 31: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,630 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.19%. Trading volume was 139,967 lots, and open interest was 247,263 lots, down 3,338 lots day on day, with funds exiting and clear signs of both bulls and bears reducing positions to realize profits. The price held above the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day MA, with short-term bearish pressure continuing to ease. After a sharp decline earlier, the price consolidated at lows for repair, and on the day it shot up then pulled back to close slightly higher, with moderate bullish buying at lows. The 5-day and 10-day MAs turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day MAs remained downward, leaving the medium-term downtrend unchanged. The 60-day MA above forms strong medium- and long-term resistance, limiting upside room, while the short-term MAs below provide solid support at lows. The DIF and DEA lines stayed below the zero axis, but bearish momentum shrank significantly, and the rebound momentum from lows continued, greatly easing overall downward pressure. SMM Commentary: Recently, the macro front improved somewhat, and the marginal constraints from rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continued to ease. China’s proportion of liquid aluminum kept rising, and the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East along with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingot provided a floor for aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the continued rollout of aluminum capacity outside China in the long term, weak end-use demand in China, together with repeated changes in expectations for US Fed rate hikes and uncertainties in the Middle East, still put some pressure on aluminum’s upside room. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract settled at 2,621 yuan/mt, down 27 yuan on the day, a decline of 1.02%. Trading volume was 185,860 lots, and open interest was 242,811 lots, down 6,081 lots MoM, with funds reducing positions and exiting. The price stayed below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs, with all MAs forming bearish pressure from top to bottom. Short-term bears continued to press, and the price hit a new low, with weak bullish buying at lows. All medium- and long-term MAs have turned from support to resistance, and the medium-term consolidation downward trend hasn’t changed. During any rebound repair phase, the price will face layered resistance from each moving average. SMM Commentary: On the supply side, weekly production was basically flat compared to the previous week, with stable operations, but the ample supply situation persisted, continuing to weigh on prices. On the inventory front, the buildup trend continued. In markets outside China, affected by geopolitical conflicts, large volumes of low-priced cargo flowed into China earlier, consuming overseas circulating inventory. Recently, the concentrated release of restocking demand from new capacity in Indonesia and production resumptions in the Middle East tightened overseas supplies from loose, driving a notable increase in ex-China alumina prices. Looking ahead, in the absence of macro bullish catalysts in China, the oversupply situation continues to pressure, and short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Additionally, expectations of production ramp-up in Guangxi will likely lead to further inventory buildup next week. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

Sentiment in China’s battery-grade manganese sulfate market has gradually returned to rationality, as the flood-related factors that previously lifted prices in Guangxi continue to ease.In early July, continuous heavy rainfall and floods hit major production areas in Guangxi. Rising river levels and disrupted logistics forced multiple manganese sulfate producers to suspend operations for safety inspections and equipment maintenance, triggering a temporary shrinkage of available spot supply.

[SMM Titanium Flash] SMM, July 31: Recently, titanium concentrate prices have continued to weaken, with titanium concentrate (TiO2≥46%) prices down to 1,280-1,330 yuan/mt and titanium concentrate (TiO2≥47%) down to 1,550-1,650 yuan/mt. In H1 2026, China's cumulative imports of titanium concentrates reached 2.9288 million mt, up 13.56% YoY, marking significant import growth. Meanwhile, domestic ore capacity in regions such as Xinjiang and Chengde was also being released with incremental growth, further exacerbating the market oversupply. On the demand side, the titanium dioxide industry is in the off-season, coupled with persistently falling TiO2 prices. Some enterprises have suspended or cut production and are pushing for lower raw material prices, weighing on market sentiment for upstream titanium concentrates. Overall, the strong supply and weak demand pattern is unlikely to change in the short term, and imported titanium concentrate prices are expected to remain under pressure.

In July, the Tianjin zinc ingot market continued to show a pattern of ample supply and weak demand. Regional spot circulating resources were relatively sufficient, while downstream purchasing enthusiasm was insufficient, leading to mediocre market trading performance. Spot premiums remained in discount, and the supply-demand imbalance was still prominent.

[Tianjin Zinc Ingot Premiums: Supply-Demand Ease Continues, Premiums to Remain Under Pressure] In July, the Tianjin zinc ingot market continued the pattern of loose supply and weak demand. Regional spot zinc ingot supplies were relatively sufficient, while downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, leading to mediocre market transactions. Spot premiums continued to trade at a discount, and the supply-demand imbalance remained relatively prominent.