7.22 SMM Alumina Morning Comment Futures: The most-traded alumina 2609 contract showed a retreat after rapid rise overnight, opening at 2,733 yuan/mt, briefly rising to 2,752 yuan/mt before consolidating and pulling back to a low of 2,722 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 2,729 yuan/mt, down 23 yuan/mt from the session high. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Trading volume decreased by 6,948 lots from the previous trading day to 115,000 lots, with volume remaining low and market activity subdued. Open interest decreased by 383 lots to 307,000 lots, as capital continued to flow out slightly and both bulls and bears lacked the willingness to enter continuously. Technically, the closing price of 2,729 yuan/mt remained above the MA5 (2,721.6), MA10 (2,706.2), and MA20 (2,706.95), with the short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment and the short-term center edging higher. However, after peaking at 2,752 yuan/mt during the day, it was clearly blocked and pulled back, with this level forming double resistance with the MA40 (2,740.15), validating the downward pressure from the medium-term moving average. Overall, the futures currently show a consolidation pattern characterized by support from short-term moving averages, notable pressure from the medium-term moving average, and insufficient volume, leaving the near-term direction unclear. Attention should focus on whether the resistance around the MA40 (2,740.15) can be effectively broken, and whether volume can recover sufficiently. If volume remains low and prices cannot reclaim 2,750 yuan/mt, prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within the 2,720–2,750 yuan/mt range, with support at the MA5 (2,721.6) and the 2,700 round figure. Ore side: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was at $70.36/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $70.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average price was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $78.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Overall, on the domestic ore front, mining operations in Shanxi, Henan, and other areas are gradually resuming, while alumina refineries continue to push for lower prices, leaving domestic ore prices largely in the doldrums. Imported ore side, ocean freight rates stayed high, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over Guinea’s policies, providing some support to ore prices. However, raw material inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high, purchasing interest was limited, and market price negotiations persisted. In the short term, imported ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention still needs to be paid to Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and changes in Australia-China ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,719.92 yuan/mt, down 4.16 yuan/mt; the SMM Shandong Alumina Index stood at 2,725.50 yuan/mt, down 4.21 yuan/mt; the SMM Henan Alumina Index stood at 2,752.16 yuan/mt, down 6.75 yuan/mt; the SMM Shanxi Alumina Index stood at 2,757.36 yuan/mt, down 8.04 yuan/mt; the SMM Guizhou Alumina Index stood at 2,731.28 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt; and the SMM Guangxi Alumina Index stood at 2,632.27 yuan/mt, down 1.62 yuan/mt. Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on July 21, the SMM Alumina Index was at a discount of 7.08 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price as of 11:30. Warrant Daily: On July 21, total registered alumina warrants stood at 222,300 mt, down 903 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shandong registered warrants were 16,176 mt, down 1,800 mt; Henan registered warrants were 1,802 mt, unchanged; Guangxi registered warrants were 12,941 mt, unchanged; Gansu registered warrants were 13,472 mt, down 5,721 mt; and Xinjiang registered warrants were 176,900 mt, up 897 mt. Markets Outside China: As of July 21, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $335/mt; the ocean freight rate was $32.35/mt; and the USD/CNY offered exchange rate was 6.78. Based on these, the equivalent selling price of overseas alumina at major Chinese ports was approximately 2,897.78 yuan/mt, a premium of 177.86 yuan/mt against the SMM Alumina Index that day. Summary: Currently, total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with overall changes limited. In terms of structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined somewhat, mainly because spot prices remain at relatively high levels, prompting downstream aluminum smelters to slow their procurement of high-priced raw materials and rely more on drawing down existing in-factory inventory. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased slightly, but production cuts due to maintenance at some enterprises in Shanxi and new capacity releases in south China largely offset each other, resulting in limited overall growth. At ports, affected by the arrival of new vessels, inventories have rebounded somewhat; regarding warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the narrowing spread between futures and spot prices, the willingness to ship to delivery warehouse has weakened, and inventories have continued to decline; in-transit and station inventories have accumulated somewhat, mainly due to earlier warrants maturing and being released as spot, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, which has increased supply in the circulation link. It is expected that in the short term, the overall operating pattern of the alumina market will not change much. Although some enterprises using domestic ore and those with tight ore supply have maintenance plans, the impact on monthly production is limited, and inventory levels are likely to remain at current states. On the price side, as the regional spot mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center may pull back slightly, and the subsequent trend is likely to remain under pressure. [All other data beyond publicly available information are derived based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[Full-Scale US-Iran War Risks Climb, Strengthening Short-Term Upward Drivers for Aluminum Prices] Overall assessment suggests that with the volatile Middle East situation, persistent market concerns over interest rate hikes, and continuously recovering supply, the destocking trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East, the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the status of China’s downstream processing orders.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,857/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $13,781.5/mt, then its price center rose in a straight line to hit a high of $13,934/mt, and finally closed at $13,905.5/mt, up 1.91%. Trading volume reached 32,700 contracts, and open interest stood at 244,000 contracts, an increase of 344 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,130 yuan/mt, dipped early to 105,830 yuan/mt, then its price center climbed all the way, touching a high of 106,760 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 106,600 yuan/mt, up 1.69%. Trading volume reached 55,000 contracts, and open interest stood at 225,000 contracts, an increase of 9,557 contracts from the previous trading day, with bulls adding positions.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Alloy Futures Narrowly Rebounded, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues in Off-Season] On Tuesday, the ADC12 market remained in the doldrums, with the quotation center edging slightly lower. Fundamentally, the pullback in aluminum prices weakened cost support; meanwhile, the off-season effect continued to intensify, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions were sluggish.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: Korean Giants Frequently Signal Expansion, SHFE Tin Night Session Rises Over 1% to Return to 410,000]

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The newly commissioned project is currently the leading demonstration project for hydrogen production from industrial tail gas and resource utilization in south-west China. Relying on the surplus coke oven gas resources of the local steel industry, the project employs an independently developed full-process technology for component separation, converting industrial tail gas originally used for power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ of 99.999% fuel cell-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas annually, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices pressured the interest rate market, and market expectations for the Fed to raise rates in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, believes that energy price fluctuations should dictate the Fed's policy decisions. (Wall Street News) According to CME FedWatch: July probabilities: unchanged (74.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (25.1%); September probabilities: unchanged (28.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (55.7%), cumulative 50 bp hike (15.4%). (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll, 78 out of 104 economists (compared with 78 of 102 in last month’s survey) expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today will see the release of the UK’s June CPI m/m, June RPI m/m, and other data. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and Houthi forces announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunged 34% in two weeks. (Wall Street News) On the data front: US crude oil inventories rose last week. For the week ending July 17, API crude oil inventories: +2.603 million barrels (expected -500,000, prior -564,000); API gasoline inventories: -1.379 million barrels (expected -1.81 million, prior -1.664 million). Furthermore, Iraq’s oil minister stated that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements signed between the Iraqi Oil Ministry and US companies is expected to reach $200 billion. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that the recent escalation of hostile acts against energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas has exacerbated concerns over global energy supply security and added uncertainty to the market outlook. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a crucial passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, faces threats that further exacerbate these concerns. But he also noted that the crude oil market is still supported by several buffer factors. Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply via alternative transportation routes, and some crude oil is still being exported through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that Gulf crude oil exports, while below the end-June peak, are still significantly above levels from March to mid-June. Furthermore, increased exports from oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China's nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, member countries have released about 290 million barrels to the market, with the ongoing release of emergency inventories providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data APP) NYMEX WTI crude oil August futures, affected by contract rollover, will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on July 22, and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. In addition, some trading platforms' US crude oil contract expiration is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please be extra cautious. Recommended reading:

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

SMM, July 21: US Secretary of State Rubio stated in a media interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration “remains open to a diplomatic solution.” Expectations of a negotiated settlement between the two sides in the market tug-of-war heated up, and international oil prices pulled back in tandem. Earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices cooled, and the market’s bets on the US Fed holding high interest rates weakened marginally. Coupled with a sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific stock markets today, overall market risk appetite improved. The built-up sentiment for an oversold rebound in precious metals was released in a concentrated manner, and multiple positive factors resonated to drive a rebound in both precious metals futures and equity prices. Zhaojin Gold, Shandong Humon Smelting, Western Gold, and other precious metals enterprises reported positive H1 earnings forecasts, and the favour from some market funds also contributed to the synchronized strength in precious metals futures and stocks. As of around 13:35 on July 21, COMEX gold was up 1.07% at $4,058.7/oz; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.31% to 885.6 yuan/g; COMEX silver gained 2.13% to $58.285/oz; SHFE silver main contract advanced 3.65% to 14,186 yuan/kg; silver T+D increased 2.84% to 14,113 yuan/kg. Additionally, platinum main contract rose 1.63% to 399.3 yuan/g, and palladium main contract gained 2.87% to 302.4 yuan/g. Precious metals stocks surged. As of the close on July 21, the precious metals sector rose 7.34%. Among individual stocks: Xingye Silver&Tin, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources hit the daily limit up; Xiaocheng Technology, Shanjin International, Hunan Silver, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold were among the top gainers. News [Russia’s gold holdings fell to 73.4 million ounces in June] The Russian central bank stated on its website that as of month-end June, the value of its reserves was $299 billion, compared with $325.9 billion at the end of May. [World Gold Council: Chinese market gold ETFs saw significant inflows in H1] According to the World Gold Council, gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, and H1 ended with a decline. Despite outflows in June, Chinese market gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, driving total assets under management slightly up to 243 billion yuan, with total holdings increasing by 29 mt to 277 mt. [Zhaojin Gold: expects H1 2026 net profit to increase 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14. It expects H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent at 200 million to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; and non-recurring net profit of 80 million to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 570 million – 700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 272 million – 402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 500 million – 570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 490 million – 580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit of 4.1 Billion – 4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.1 billion – 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%–70.7% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 4.05 billion – 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%–53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 21, the SMM 1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 13,825 yuan/kg, with the average up 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, premium/discount quotes that day extended the trend of previous days, with consumption remaining sluggish and transactions being mostly at parity to slight discounts. The spot-futures price spread on the futures market widened slightly, and some suppliers reduced shipments. Early morning quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly concentrated at TD parity to +5 yuan/kg, with some rigid demand orders supporting transactions and suppliers’ willingness to sell weakening. In the Shenzhen area, some national-standard cargoes were concentrated around TD -5 yuan/kg to parity, with low-priced cargoes existing but having limited disruption. That day, the market’s premium/discount against the SHFE2608 contract was at a discount of 20 – 30 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610, it was at a discount of 40 – 60 yuan/kg. Overall, precious metals lacked clear guidance from news, and recently both domestic and overseas futures markets have shown signs of bulls entering, so attention can be paid to changes in open interest. Spot premiums/discounts traded near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persisted. Platinum On July 21, spot platinum was quoted at 395 – 398 yuan/g, with the average price at 396.5 yuan/g, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The premiums/discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat from the previous trading day. Today, the price spread between the GFEX platinum October and August futures contracts widened slightly. In the morning, suppliers' quotes for spot platinum were mainly at premiums of 0.5 to 1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract. Later, as the futures market rose, some suppliers adjusted their quotes to around parity, where transactions were made. Downstream users made small purchases based on orders. Overall, the spot platinum market saw normal trading volumes today. In July, a Section 232 window for platinum and palladium will open. If the US imposes tariffs on platinum and palladium after the 180-day negotiation period ends, it will support prices in the short term. Voices from Various Sides Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: Jinyuan Futures research report stated: The recent escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, lifting inflation expectations. Precious metals remained under pressure but their decline slowed. After the sharp pullback in gold and silver prices, bargain-hunting buying emerged. The correction in US tech stocks will also redirect some funds into precious metals. Although the correction trend in gold and silver is not yet over, the probability of a rebound is increasing. Hundun Futures research report noted: As geopolitical tensions continue to seesaw, the market is not yet convinced enough to expect an overall pullback in oil prices. Inflation expectations could rebound from lows, limiting the decline in US bond yields. Hence, the rebound in precious metals remains limited under these circumstances. The US Fed's relatively cautious remarks have also capped the rebound in precious metals. Fed Chairman Warsh said the balance sheet should be kept as small as possible so that it can expand in a crisis. The labour market looks quite good, but he is not optimistic about inflation and is dissatisfied with it; Fed's Williams stated that with inflation still elevated, it must be brought back sustainably to the 2% target, and the current monetary policy stance is very well positioned to achieve that; Logan said that a modest rate hike now would help better balance the outlook and risks, and moderate tightening now is better than having to tighten significantly later. The Fed's stance is clearly cautious, unwilling to let the market overprice a relaxation of vigilance. The market dares not further trade interest rate cut expectations, and precious metals weakened again. Liquidity and risk appetite remain weak under the influence of the equity market. As AI fundamentals are being reassessed, deleveraging in funding further amplifies volatility. The continued decline in the equity market has made liquidity relatively tight and restricted the drivers for precious metals. At this stage, the overall market is still dominated by sentiment-driven trading. Geopolitics, the AI narrative, and economic/inflation resilience mean the US dollar index and US bond yields will remain volatile. A trend reversal in precious metals still needs to be observed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold faces short-term headwinds from the US Fed’s tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, investment positions in gold look thin after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, suggesting that the scope for further declines may be limited. A high interest rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening-leaning expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with central banks purchasing 81 mt in May and a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt, according to the firm’s estimates. Goldman Sachs analysts stated, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.” The bank expects average monthly purchases of 50 mt and 40 mt for this year and next year, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG, said, “Recent price action suggests that the market is placing greater weight on the possibility of US interest rates staying high for longer rather than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to add back to gold, the question is just timing.” He said he reduced the gold allocation to a neutral level during the January-February period, when the multi-year bull run in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be disrupted in a scenario where “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to bringing inflation back down,” he added, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull market—will continue to support gold prices. Last Thursday, US Eastern Time, technical strategists at Bank of America warned that the pullback in gold so far this year may still have significant room to run, and its trajectory could resemble the devastating bear markets that followed the sharp rallies in gold in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold prices fall to the $3,450–$3,250 range. Bank of America analysts pointed out in a technical research report that gold prices have now accumulated a series of bearish signals, with the risk of a sustained drop increasing: a death cross pattern, elevated net long positions, a bearish topping candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent high—a level consistent with the gold price peaks in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold price target to $4,800 per ounce and, while remaining long-term bullish on gold, is not adding to positions for now. Its current gold allocation is neutral at around 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year. Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, said in an interview that the previous overweight position "posed the greatest risk to our portfolios." UBP would like to see the Middle East ceasefire agreement hold and more clarity on inflation and interest rate trends before adding to its positions. Gupta said that for investors currently without gold holdings, a drop below $4,000 per ounce would be an extremely attractive entry point. (Zhitong Finance) Recommended reading:

In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

July 21 , 2026 Customs data shows that in June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports totaled 112,396 mt, up 76.03% MoM and up 379.7% YoY. In January-June 2026, China's aluminum wire exports amounted to 283,400 mt, up 109.76% YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) Aluminum stranded wire (76149000): Monthly exports hit a new high of 96,000 mt For aluminum stranded wire, domestic exports reached 96,385 mt in June, up 91.9% MoM, with a net increase of 46,161 mt from May’s 50,224 mt. This figure far exceeded the upbeat forecast in the May analysis. The share of aluminum stranded wire in total exports climbed further from 78.7% in May to 85.8%, marking the third consecutive month above the 50% threshold and a continued rise, reflecting the concentrated delivery of orders secured during the earlier export profit window. ACSR (76141000): up 17.5% MoM For ACSR, June exports were 16,011 mt, up 17.5% MoM, with a net increase of 2,384 mt from May’s 13,627 mt. ACSR exports rebounded for the second consecutive month, but the growth rate was far behind the explosive growth of aluminum stranded wire, and its share of total exports contracted further from 21.3% in May to 14.2%. Export destination analysis for aluminum stranded wire: The June growth mainly came from two directions. First, volume expansion in traditional markets. South Korea (+16,763 mt) and Japan (+6,682 mt) together contributed 43.8% of the top 15 destinations’ incremental volume. Exports to Hong Kong, China surged 403% MoM, very likely driven by traders shipping goods in bulk via Hong Kong for re-export. Second, the emergence of new markets. Serbia (3,134 mt) and the UAE (2,498 mt) started from zero. Europe and the Middle East began to appear on the export map of aluminum stranded wire. Taiwan, China, although having a base of 99 mt in May, jumped to 2,506 mt in June, surging over 24-fold, which also deserves attention. Export destination analysis for ACSR: In June, ACSR was exported to 58 countries and regions, with export concentration remaining high: the top 10 destinations accounted for 14,385 mt, or 89.8% of total exports. Unlike the broad-based surge in aluminum stranded wire, ACSR exports were still dominated by traditional markets, with Saudi Arabia firmly in first place at 5,371 mt (33.5% share). SMM comments : June aluminum wire exports hit another new monthly record at 112,400 mt. The key driver remained the concentrated delivery in June of massive orders locked in during the earlier window of favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Looking ahead, some remaining orders secured at fixed prices will still be delivered in July, but many producers reported contract cancellations. Aluminum wire exports in July are expected to trend downward; although down sharply from June’s peak, they will remain above normal levels, reflecting the lagged delivery effect of earlier orders. If the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets does not recover significantly in August-September, the export window for aluminum stranded wire will be hard to reopen, and China's aluminum stranded wire exports will return to a normalized range of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Overall, June 2026 is very likely to be the peak month for aluminum wire exports for the full year. H2 exports will undergo a transition from high levels to normal levels. With cumulative exports of 283,000 mt in January-June as the base, H2 exports will gradually return to a normal average of 20,000-30,000 mt per month. Full-year exports are expected to reach 420,000-480,000 mt, still representing significant growth over 2025, but the growth rate will slow markedly in H2.