The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.

Gold demand in China surged 67 percent year-on-year to a record 207t, considerably higher than the previous quarterly record of 155t in Q2 2013

Silver price forecasts across key horizons have been sharply cut by UBS, driven by subdued investment demand, weaker industrial usage, and climbing mine production.

Global Aluminum Market Review – April: Divergent Domestic & Overseas Trends and Marked Spot Structure Disparities The global aluminum market in April featured a core pattern of strength overseas and weakness domestically with diverging trends. The main Shanghai aluminum contract retreated from highs amid fluctuations, while LME aluminum maintained firm momentum supported by low inventories and geopolitical factors, with both markets seeing mild corrections toward month-end. Market drivers this month centered on macro policies, geopolitical conflicts, supply-demand fundamentals and inventory structures, with movements of key indicators further highlighting supply-demand imbalances between domestic and overseas aluminum markets. I. April Aluminum Price Review: Linked Movements with Distinct Strength Differentials Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum shared similar price rhythms in April, both fluctuating higher initially before retreating. However, notable gaps emerged in upward momentum and correction ranges, with overseas aluminum prices significantly outperforming domestic counterparts. The average Shanghai-LME aluminum ratio dropped from 7.36 in March to 7.03 in April, reflecting stronger overseas aluminum pricing relative to Shanghai aluminum. The main Shanghai aluminum contract trended upward early in the month before softening overall, declining from elevated levels through range-bound trading. It opened lower at RMB 24,715 per ton at the start of the month and consolidated. Driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising LME aluminum prices, it surged to a monthly peak of RMB 25,675 per ton in mid-April. In late April, amid continuous domestic inventory accumulation, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, and risk-averse capital outflows ahead of the May Day holiday, prices corrected steadily. Closing at RMB 24,430 per ton on April 30, the contract recorded a monthly trading range of nearly RMB 1,360 per ton. LME March aluminum traded firmly with mild late-month declines. Opening at USD 3,459 per ton, it climbed to a monthly high of USD 3,672 per ton in mid-April, underpinned by overseas supply disruptions from geopolitical frictions and sustained inventory destocking. Prices edged down later due to fluctuating US-Iran negotiations, hawkish macro sentiment and profit-taking at high levels, settling at USD 3,476 per ton at month-end with a slight monthly loss. Overall, LME aluminum vastly outperformed domestic Shanghai aluminum. In terms of price drivers, geopolitics served as a shared upward catalyst for global aluminum prices, with production cuts and supply disruptions in the Middle East continuously boosting market risk aversion. Price divergence stemmed from dual disparities in macro policies and fundamentals: elevated domestic inventories and sluggish demand consistently capped aluminum price rebounds, while tight overseas inventories and strained spot supplies provided robust support for LME aluminum. II. Key Inventory Indicators: Divergent Inventory Movements and Contrasting Supply-Demand Landscapes As a core gauge of aluminum market supply and demand, domestic and overseas inventory trends diverged sharply in April, directly shaping the relative strength of regional aluminum prices. Domestic aluminum inventories kept rising and stood at a multi-year seasonal high. Social inventories maintained an upward trend throughout April, hitting 1.465 million tons in mid-month, the highest seasonal level in five years. A clear imbalance emerged between rigid supply release and lackluster downstream demand during the traditional peak "Silver April" period, leading to persistent spot market loosening. SHFE warehouse stocks expanded from 420,000 tons at the start of the month to 450,000 tons at month-end. Elevated warehouse stock levels further confirmed ample domestic spot supply, weighing continuously on aluminum prices. Overseas LME aluminum inventories declined steadily to a 20-year low. Total LME aluminum inventories fell from 410,000 tons to 370,000 tons in April, extending months of destocking to historic lows. Noticeable structural divergence persisted in inventory composition: Russian aluminum accounted for approximately 92% of total LME stocks in March, resulting in low market-circulating inventories and increasingly tight physical spot supply, which acted as the fundamental pillar for strong LME aluminum prices. In summary, April’s global aluminum market was governed by contrasting core dynamics: low overseas inventories, geopolitical disruptions and hawkish Federal Reserve policies on the overseas front, versus high domestic inventories, weak real demand and stable growth expectations domestically. This drove pronounced market divergence. Affected by intertwined internal and external factors, the main Shanghai aluminum contract corrected downwards from highs, while LME aluminum remained in a firm trading range, backed by historically low inventories, a tight spot balance and geopolitical risk premiums.

Tuesday, 28/04/2026 | 17:51 GMT+8 by Damian Chmiel Gold falls 3% to $4,620/oz on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, testing three-week lows as Fed hawkish hold lifts dollar and Treasury yields. XAU chart shows $4,300 as the bull-bear line and a weekly close below targets $3,400 on a 100% Fibonacci extension, a 26% drop. JPMorgan still targets $6,300 by year-end and Goldman Sachs holds $5,400, calling the March correction a positioning unwind. Gold traded at $4,620 per ounce on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, falling for a second straight session and testing three-week lows as a hawkish Federal Reserve hold lifted the dollar and pushed Treasury yields back toward 4.4%. The metal has now lost close to 3% on the week, rejected the upper boundary of the multi-month consolidation defined by the January 28 record close at $5,400, and slipped back below the 50-day EMA. With the FOMC decision Wednesday, U.S. Q1 GDP later in the week, and the Strait of Hormuz still partially closed, why is gold falling has become the most-asked question in the precious metals complex. Follow me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk . Why Gold Price Is Going Down Today? Dollar, Yields, Hawkish Fed Hold The pullback is more about real yields than tail risk. The dollar index has held above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are running between 4.3% and 4.4%, and the CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of an unchanged rate at Wednesday's FOMC meeting at 99.5%. Each of those signals raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager of DHF Capital S.A., framed the macro tape this way: "Gold fell to multi-week lows on Tuesday, pressured by a firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields." How High Can Gold Go? UBP Rebuilds Bullion Positions and Reaffirms $6,000 Gold Price Prediction for 2026 Why Gold Is Surging With Silver and Why Experts Predict $7,000 Price in 2026 Why Gold Is Going Up? Goldman Gold Price Prediction Sees $5,400 as XAU Rebounds Kooijman added that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and feeding back into yields, with gold-backed ETFs flipping to outflows last week after three weeks of inflows. Linh Tran, Market Analyst at XS.com, sees a controlled distribution rather than a panic flush: "After reaching a peak near 4,900 USD/oz, gold has entered a relatively deep corrective phase, pulling back toward the 4,700 area. However, this decline has not been characterized by panic selling, but rather by a controlled sequence of losses." Tran's read fits the daily chart, where lower closes have been measured rather than capitulatory. The structural drivers pulling gold lower this week: Dollar index above 98.5, sustained for the third straight session Ten-year Treasury yields back at 4.3-4.4%, lifting real yields CME FedWatch pricing 99.5% probability of an unchanged FOMC at 3.50-3.75% Gold ETF flows turned negative last week after three weeks of inflows Strait of Hormuz disruption keeping oil bid and the rate-cut path further out ETF Outflows and the Strait of Hormuz Premium The flow picture has shifted decisively in the past week. Last week's ETF outflows, the first since early April, broke a three-week inflow streak. The reversal coincided with West Texas Intermediate climbing back above $100 per barrel and 25 commercial vessels being redirected away from Iranian ports over the weekend. That oil-yields feedback loop has now become gold's dominant short-term driver. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated; elevated inflation expectations keep the Fed on hold; a Fed on hold keeps real yields elevated; elevated real yields keep gold under pressure even as the geopolitical backdrop, in classical terms, should support it. As I wrote in my March crash analysis , the same paradox crushed gold roughly 15% in March 2026. Key flow and physical market data points entering the FOMC week: Spot XAU/USD trades roughly 18% below the $5,595 January 29 all-time high Western ETF outflows resumed last week, snapping a three-week inflow streak WTI crude back above $100 per barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption Central bank buying still running near 60 tonnes per month, per Goldman Sachs Gold Technical Analysis: The $4,300 Bull-Bear Line My chart shows the same picture that has defined gold since late January: a wide consolidation channel between $5,400 at the top and the $4,300 to $4,400 zone at the bottom. The upper bound is the January 28 record close, retested without breaking on March 2. The lower bound is fixed by two anchors, the October 2025 highs at around $4,360 and the panic lows from the week of March 23-27, where price briefly tagged the 200-day EMA at $4,200. In 15 years on the precious metals beat at FinanceMagnates.com, documented across my analyst page , I have watched gold violate multi-month consolidation channels twice, both times with the kind of momentum visible on this week's chart. Tuesday's session moved decisively away from the 50-day EMA, which now sits as resistance overhead, and the rejection at the channel top is the cleanest sell signal the daily chart has produced since my March 25 reversal call at the 200 EMA played out. A breakout up from this range opens price discovery and a run at fresh all-time highs above $5,600. A breakout down is what concerns me. Below $4,300, my Fibonacci extension based on the full 2024-2026 trend projects 100% extension at $3,400, which lines up almost exactly with the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months before the September acceleration. From the current $4,620 level, that scenario implies a 26% drop, in line with the bearish framework I detailed in my previous analysis . Gold price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com Until $4,300 breaks on a weekly close, this is consolidation, not a confirmed downtrend. Below $4,300, my chart has very little technical support before $3,400. Level Type Notes $5,400 Resistance / Channel top January 28 record close, retested March 2 $4,800 Resistance / 50-day EMA Lost on this week's break $4,620 Current spot Tuesday, April 28, 2026 $4,360 Support / October 2025 highs Lower bound of multi-month range $4,200 Support / 200-day EMA Tested briefly during March 23 panic $3,400 Extension target April 2025 highs and 100% Fibo extension Gold Price Predictions 2026: How Low Can Gold Go? The institutional band remains wide and stays bullish even after the spring drawdown. JPMorgan Global Research holds a $6,300 year-end 2026 target, with strategist Greg Shearer projecting average quarterly investor and central bank demand of around 585 tonnes; my reading is that the call needs another credible Fed pivot to play out before year-end. Goldman Sachs sticks with $5,400, framing the March selloff as a leveraged-positioning unwind rather than a fundamental break, and on the chart that view aligns with the consolidation thesis as long as $4,300 holds. UBS sees $5,200 by June and $5,900 by late 2026, but its short-term cut explicitly cited stronger dollar and oil pressure, which is the exact tape gold is trading right now. Wells Fargo at $6,100 to $6,300 and Deutsche Bank at $6,000 round out the bullish institutional cluster, all anchored on the same fiscal-debasement and central-bank-buying thesis that the FinanceMagnates.com report on UBP rebuilding bullion positions detailed earlier this month. The Reuters poll of 30 analysts has settled at a $4,746 median for 2026, almost on top of current spot, suggesting the consensus has already absorbed the bearish leg. The same complex dynamic is playing out across the silver leg of the precious metals trade , where every move in gold is being amplified. Source Target Notes JPMorgan $6,300 Year-end 2026, 585 tonnes/quarter demand assumption UBS (long) $5,900 Late 2026 target, $5,200 short-term by June Wells Fargo $6,100-6,300 Raised from $4,500-$4,700 in February 2026 Deutsche Bank $6,000 Reiterated by Michael Hsueh, Head of Metals Research Goldman Sachs $5,400 Year-end, base case excludes new buyer wave Reuters poll $4,746 Median of 30 analysts for 2026 My TA (bear) $3,400 Activated only on weekly close below $4,300 FAQ, Gold Price Analysis Why is gold falling today? Gold is falling on April 28, 2026, because the U.S. dollar index is above 98.5, ten-year Treasury yields are at 4.3% to 4.4%, and CME FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of a non-yielding asset, and last week's ETF outflows reinforced the move. How low can gold go in 2026? Based on my technical analysis, gold's bull-bear line is $4,300. A weekly close below activates a 100% Fibonacci extension at $3,400, anchored by the April 2025 highs that capped price for four straight months. That implies a 26% drop from current levels. Above $4,300, the metal stays inside its multi-month consolidation rather than a confirmed downtrend. Will gold crash below $4,000? A close below $4,300 on the weekly chart is the trigger I am watching for a sustained move under $4,000. The 200-day EMA sits at $4,200, briefly tagged during the March 23 panic. Without that level breaking on closing basis, talk of a crash is premature. Above $4,300, the structural bull thesis from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs remains intact. What is the 200-day EMA on gold? The 200-day EMA on gold sits at approximately $4,200 per ounce as of April 28, 2026. The level was last tested during the panic session of March 23, when intraday price briefly touched the average before reversing higher. The 200 EMA has acted as the definitive bull-bear boundary for gold since the metal first cleared $4,000 in October 2025. Should I buy gold now? This article is not investment advice. From a chart perspective, gold trades inside a wide consolidation between $4,300 support and $5,400 resistance. Risk-managed entries become clearer only after the FOMC decision and the response at $4,300. JPMorgan targets $6,300 and Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 for year-end 2026, while my chart's bear scenario warns of $3,400 if support breaks. Source： https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-is-gold-falling-gold-price-risk-crash-to-3400/

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of supplier behavior, wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the early session, with notable divergence in offers; subsequently, some suppliers chose to offload inventory, mainly considering that downstream consumption expectations weakened after sustained copper price increases, upside room for spot premiums was limited, and willingness to liquidate holdings strengthened, driving the overall premiums center downward. Supply side, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the contract rollover; if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, this will further suppress spot premiums. Inventory side, SMM recorded social inventory of 282,800 mt, down 17,000 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace showing a slowdown compared to the earlier period. Overall, under the combined effects of strengthened willingness to sell among suppliers and weakened consumption expectations, coupled with warrant outflows, spot prices against the 2605 contract are expected to see a slight decline in premiums tomorrow.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,949/mt. During the Asian session, prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices shifted to fluctuate downward. Although there were slight rebounds during the period, the momentum was limited. Prices continued to weaken during the evening session, dipping to a low of $1,940/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,947.5/mt, up $8.5/mt, a gain of 0.44%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. After a brief pullback at the start, prices moved higher in a volatile manner, touching a high of 16,825 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,785-16,810 yuan/mt range. During the midnight session, lead prices fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,745 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at 16,765 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.21%. On the macro front: 1. Iranian media: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. 2. Iranian media: If Israeli attacks on Lebanon do not stop, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire. 3. "US Fed mouthpiece": The ceasefire agreement made it harder for the US Fed to decide. 4. US Fed meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. 5. US media: Trump considered partially withdrawing US troops from NATO allies. 6. World Gold Council: Gold ETFs saw record capital outflows in March. 7. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council established the Overseas State-owned Assets Bureau. 8. Iran sought security guarantees from China? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. Spot fundamentals: Boosted by positive macro news, SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers lowered discounts for shipments, while others had limited cargoes and temporarily offered no quotes. Quotes for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -30 to +50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelter shipments also diverged, with some holding prices firm for shipments and others expanding discounts for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, making it difficult to close deals at high prices in the spot market, with some premium cargoes attracting no interest. Inventory side, as of April 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,400 mt to 279,025 mt. As of April 7, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw a slight inventory buildup. Secondary lead enterprises saw slower-than-expected production resumptions due to profit constraints. Some smelters cut production slightly this week due to insufficient raw material inventory. Meanwhile, some smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late March were still in the capacity ramp-up stage. The supply side presented a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. Demand side, lead prices fluctuated at highs, suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, with high-priced spot cargoes seeing sluggish transactions, and some premium varieties attracting little interest. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Strait of Hormuz Closed Again, LME Zinc Under Pressure] Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with various moving averages below providing support. On the macro front, optimistic sentiment over the US-Iran ceasefire drove risk assets higher, and the US dollar index touched a one-month low. However, the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, the resumption of hostile actions between Iran and Israel, Iranian media reporting that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed, combined with the possibility of a US Fed rate hike, put LME zinc under pressure.

[SMM Copper Bulletin] According to the SHFE daily copper warrant report, copper futures warrants continued to flow out by 8,368 mt during the day, with the most significant outflows in Shanghai at 3,640 mt, followed by Guangdong at 2,926 mt and Jiangsu at 1,902 mt. As social inventories continued destocking, spot premiums in various regions basically stopped falling and rebounded.