Around May 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain-related products in April were released in a concentrated manner. Data showed that China's spodumene imports in April reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY. Lithium carbonate imports, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY.......SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials, as detailed below: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In April 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY, equivalent to approximately 63,000 mt of LCE. Customs data showed that April spodumene imports pulled back MoM from March, reaching 758,000 mt in physical content. By source country, Australian ore port arrivals returned to a relatively normal level, with over 350,000 mt arriving this month, up 38.9% MoM; Zimbabwe's earlier shipments arrived at port this month at 102,000 mt, down 9.2% MoM; South Africa and Nigeria saw some contraction in monthly port arrivals, while ore from Mali had almost no notable port arrivals this month due to shipping schedule impacts. Notably, spodumene powder sold by Brazil in early 2026 arrived at port this month, driving a significant increase in port arrivals from this country. Additionally, after SMM screening, the month's incoming ore was equivalent to 63,000 mt of LCE. Among the incoming ore, lithium concentrates accounted for 67%, edging down MoM, mainly because apart from Australia , ore from other source countries contained some relatively low-grade ore. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing, according to SMM spot pricing, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices fluctuated upward in April. As of April 30, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices rose to $2,540/mt, up $221/mt from the month-end price of $2,313/mt in March, a gain of 9.81%. According to SMM, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise in April, and spodumene concentrates prices rose in tandem with salt prices, with gains exceeding those of lithium carbonate itself, causing non-integrated enterprises that purchase externally spodumene concentrates to suffer losses, with spot profitability remaining in deficit. In April, spot circulation of lepidolite concentrates relatively eased. Meanwhile, as lithium carbonate prices rose, processing fees for non-integrated enterprises also increased accordingly, preserving a certain profit margin for their processing operations and enabling these enterprises to achieve spot profitability. However, recently, spodumene concentrates prices adjusted in tandem with lithium carbonate price fluctuations, and the price center shifted downward. According to SMM's latest findings, disrupted by rumors of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines this week, lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined, further dragging down the overall price center. Currently, lithium mines showed a weak willingness to make shipments, and transactions were mostly concentrated between traders and buyers. Port lithium ore inventory continued to decline. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the potential tight lithium ore supply triggered by high operating rates in the lithium chemicals industry. Lithium ore prices were expected to continue to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY. Of this, 21,000 mt was imported from Chile (65% of total imports), 9,555 mt from Argentina (29%), and 1,100 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY cumulatively. In April, China exported 370 mt of lithium carbonate, down 17% MoM and down 50% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,886 mt, up 7% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 17,942 mt of lithium sulfate, up 9% MoM and up 296% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium sulfate imports reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, spot lithium carbonate prices generally trended upward in April. As of April 30, the spot lithium carbonate price rose to 177,000 yuan/mt, up 14,000 yuan/mt from 163,000 yuan/mt on March 31, a gain of 8.59%. According to SMM analysis, China's lithium carbonate prices followed a "V-shaped" trend in April, first declining then rising, with the monthly average price up 6% MoM. In the first ten days, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East intensified global risk-averse sentiment, causing non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate downward. In the mid-to-late period, driven by Zimbabwe's export ban, Jiangxi mine license renewals, and rising costs, prices began to rebound and fluctuate upward, with the price center shifting notably higher by month-end. Upstream and downstream purchasing remained stagnant, with the psychological price spread widening week by week. Upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, maintaining high offer prices, while downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement only, with psychological price levels concentrated at 155,000-175,000 yuan/mt, restocking on dips only when prices fell rapidly. In April, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped to around 155,500 yuan/mt in the first ten days, then rallied all the way to 177,000 yuan/mt by month-end. As of May 29, domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 174,000-181,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 177,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in April 2026, China imported 6,689 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 9% MoM and up four times YoY. Of this, 2,252 mt were imported from South Korea, accounting for 34% of total imports; 1,706 mt came from Indonesia, accounting for approximately 25% of imports; and the remaining 40% came from Australia and Chile. In April, China exported 5,535 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 76% MoM and up 31% YoY, of which 3,915 mt were exported to South Korea and 864 mt to Japan. Continued sluggish ternary cathode material output outside China limited the absorption capacity for lithium hydroxide in markets outside China, resulting in a slight surplus in markets outside China, which in turn widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Meanwhile, as suppliers outside China had previously signed long-term supply agreements with domestic traders, they were able to continuously dump lithium hydroxide into the Chinese market. Under the combined effect of these factors, the trade pattern of lithium hydroxide continued to reverse (shifting from net exports to net imports). Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in April 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM, while cumulative imports were approximately 96 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in April 2026 were approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM from March and down approximately 33.2% YoY. Specifically, as the LiPF6 export VAT rebate policy was officially abolished starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in advance in March, and electrolyte enterprises outside China built up certain inventory, leading to MoM declines in China's exports to multiple major destination countries in April. Exports to Poland were 337.5 mt (down approximately 80.4% MoM), South Korea 81.804 mt (down approximately 92.56% MoM), Czech Republic 150 mt (down approximately 67.43% MoM), and the US 101.908 mt (down approximately 61.7% MoM). Only exports to Japan increased — 191.37 mt (up approximately 50.77% MoM). Artificial Graphite In April 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 757 mt, up 12.4% MoM and down 32.9% YoY. Average import price side, in April 2026, the average import price of artificial graphite in China was 75,941 yuan/mt, up 23.1% MoM and up 14.6% YoY. In April 2026, China's artificial graphite exports totaled 45,895 mt, up 22.3% MoM but down 21% YoY. In terms of average export price, in April 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,214 yuan/mt, down 6.6% MoM but up 0.26% YoY. Exports from the top five exporting provinces rose 21% MoM from the previous month, with two provinces seeing export volume increases of over 35% MoM, and another province recording a 20% MoM increase. Import market, orders from downstream power battery enterprises in China gradually recovered in April. Combined with the phased tightness in spot capacity of leading anode enterprises, restocking demand was released, boosting artificial graphite imports to rebound from weakness on a MoM basis. However, import volumes remained down YoY, primarily because China's anode industry had ample overall capacity with supply still in surplus, domestic self-sufficiency continued to strengthen, and the industry's reliance on imported raw materials and finished products steadily declined. Flake Graphite In April 2026, China's flake graphite imports totaled 3,178 mt, down 19% MoM and down 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In April 2026, China's flake graphite exports totaled 4,093 mt, down 50% MoM and down 54% YoY. Export market, the flake graphite export tax rebate policy was officially canceled this month, directly squeezing profit margins for foreign trade enterprises and significantly dampening overall export willingness. Meanwhile, the approval pace for flake graphite export licenses slowed down, hindering foreign trade shipments processes. Coupled with weak ex-China end-use demand, multiple bearish factors combined to directly drive a sharp decline in industry export volumes. The import market also continued to weaken. Goods originally intended for exports shifted to domestic sales circulation, with increasingly abundant local supply sources in China. Market enthusiasm for import procurement was insufficient, ultimately causing imports to decline in tandem this month. Phosphate Ore On May 20, 2026, according to customs data, China's phosphate ore imports totaled 207,000 mt in April 2026. April imports rose 13.5% from 182,000 mt in March. Total import value in April was $19.741 million, up 35.7% MoM from $14.552 million in March. The average unit price was $95.5/mt, up 19.6% from $79.9/mt in March. Import commentary: In May, Egypt's phosphate ore exports faced "policy tightening and weakening demand."On May 13, Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced that it would no longer sign any new phosphate ore export contracts. Previously, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly stated clearly at a meeting on May 10 that the government was pushing for a transition from raw material exports to the manufacturing of high-value-added products such as phosphate fertiliser. Already signed long-term contracts would not be affected. This is expected to push up import prices and may affect imports. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In April 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY. Among them, imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. In April 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $17,187/mt in physical content, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed the Q4 2025 quota approvals, but the Q1 2026 quota approvals slowed down again due to sampling, detection and other procedural issues. In addition, transportation capacity in the DRC was tight. Fleets, driven by economic considerations, prioritised the transport of oil products and chemicals that were in production shortage, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt among non-ferrous metals came last, meaning cobalt faced significant transportation capacity issues. Constrained by the above factors, miners mainly focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet arranged concentrated vessel bookings, and the arrival of large batches of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed. Unwrought Cobalt In April 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. In April, refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import prices, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totalled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt in the US pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was already sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting their destinations from the US back to China. Average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY.

SMM June 1 update: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract traded in a range, with the overall price center moving lower compared to the previous trading day. Affected by low aluminum prices, some sellers saw a decline in willingness to sell. On Monday, the market was dominated by a wait-and-see approach, with overall downstream stockpiling sentiment declining. Mainstream spot cargo quotes in the market ranged from SMMA00-10 to +10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.93 today, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.91, down 0.49 MoM. Entering the June off-season, downstream processing enterprises in central China saw poor order sustainability, with low buying sentiment and an overall sluggish trading atmosphere. On the first day of the month, suppliers showed a strong willingness to sell, with quotes continuing to decline. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market hovered between parity with the central China price and a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.86 today, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.23, down 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas remained flat MoM today.

Today, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price continued to rise from the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high at 181,000 yuan/mt today, quickly dipped to the intraday low of 178,000 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded with fluctuations, hitting highs of 182,100 yuan/mt multiple times during the morning session; around midday, it accelerated downward, breaking below the 180,000 yuan/mt average price line; in the afternoon session, it hovered at lows and struggled to rebound, weakening again toward the close, ultimately settling down 0.71% at 178,900 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 5,887 lots. Spot market, at the beginning of the month, downstream customer-supplied and long-term contract cargoes arrived at plants successively. Combined with remaining volumes from prior spot order restocking, and with the market still watching this month's pricing tone, spot order purchase willingness was weak today, with inquiries and transactions overall sluggish. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm, with spot order shipments still mostly concentrated among producers that had previously hedged, and their reluctance to sell remained unchanged. News side, supply-side disruptions continued. The DRC recently approved a decree classifying lithium as a strategic mineral, raising the royalty rate from 3.5% to 10%. However, given that the country's current lithium production is nearly zero and the Manono project is expected to commence production in H2, the policy's actual impact on immediate supply is limited, and it is more reflected in elevated medium and long-term cost expectations. In comparison, the continuation of Zimbabwe's lithium ore export controls, the uncertainty over the pace of production resumptions at Yichun lepidolite mines, and the support from continuously rising lithium concentrates prices on smelting costs remain more direct variables affecting current market sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

In May, European APT prices held firm above $3,000/mtu amid tight supply, while scrap tungsten dropped sharply. China's tungsten prices rebounded late in the month as sentiment improved, though downstream demand remained soft. A cautious bottoming trend emerged.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Futures Center Shifted Upward with Wider Fluctuations, Elevated Prices Led to Sluggish Market Trading]

[China Inventory Continued to Decline This Week, Aluminum Prices Show LME Outperforms SHFE in the Short Term] China inventory continued to decline this week but at a modest pace, limiting the upside elasticity of SHFE aluminum, with the divergence between domestic and overseas markets expected to persist in the short term. Key areas to watch going forward include whether China inventory destocking accelerates, whether the US-Iran deal can be formally signed, further clarity on the US Fed's rate path, and whether China is further tightening regulations on aluminum capacity operations. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with LME outperforming SHFE.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Module Transaction Center Continued Weak] Last week, module prices in China maintained a downward trend. The atmosphere of enterprises competing on prices to push shipments intensified again, and currently, enterprise quotes for centralized modules also began to decline continuously. The overall market transaction center kept shifting downward, and subsequent module lows were expected to reach 0.7 yuan/W. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.742 Yuan/W, 0.749 Yuan/W, and 0.752 Yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.723 Yuan/W and 0.743 Yuan/W respectively.

SMM June 1 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw base metals collectively decline in both domestic and overseas markets. LME copper and LME tin both led the decline with a 0.98% drop. SHFE zinc fell 0.86%, while declines in other metals were relatively small. The alumina front-month contract closed flat at 2,888 yuan/mt, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.26%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals session showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.74%, and iron ore dropped 0.26%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose around 0.2%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.7% and coke rose 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals session: COMEX gold rose 0.83%, up 1.03% on the week but down 1.29% on the month, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. COMEX silver fell 0.43% overnight last Friday, down 0.81% on the week but up 2.1% on the month. In China, SHFE gold rose 1.61%, down 0.23% on the week and down 1.61% on the month, also recording a third consecutive monthly decline alongside the overseas market. SHFE silver rose 0.64% overnight last Friday, down 1.23% on the week but up 3.08% on the month. As of 8:25 AM on May 30, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: From January to April, total operating revenue of national state-owned and state-holding enterprises fell 0.5% YoY, while total profits rose 1.9% YoY. Specifically, total operating revenue was 26.27 trillion yuan, and total profits were 1.37 trillion yuan. Taxes payable rose 3.9% YoY to 2.12 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.5%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY. (Xinhua News Agency) On May 29, it was reported that in Q1, China's integrated circuit exports reached $72.47 billion, up 77.5% YoY, of which memory product exports reached $45.99 billion, up 174.2% YoY. The surge in memory product exports also transmitted to supply chain service segments. The head of a logistics company said that since the beginning of this year, the company's orders related to memory exports had doubled, with large orders exceeding 100 million yuan per transaction increasing significantly. Industry insiders noted that the explosive growth in memory product exports was driven by both cyclical factors of tight global supply and demand, as well as structural industrial changes including industry chain upgrades and market share gains in China's domestic memory sector. The Deputy Secretary General of the Shenzhen Electronics Chamber of Commerce said that compared with March last year, memory prices had risen nearly tenfold, with some even seeing more than tenfold increases. The rise was mainly due to the significant price increases, which drove up the total (export) value. Domestic brand prices had a significant price spread compared with ex-China brands, making them very competitive. (CCTV Finance) [MIIT and Six Other Departments: Encouraging Equipment Manufacturing in Aerospace, Shipbuilding, Automotive, Robotics and Other Sectors] On May 29, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the General Office of the Central Publicity Department, the General Office of MIIT, the General Office of the Ministry of Education, the General Office of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Office of the National Cultural Heritage Administration, and the General Office of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions jointly issued a notice on promoting industrial culture, protecting industrial heritage, and developing industrial tourism. The notice mentioned enriching the supply of industrial tourism products. It encouraged the active development of industrial heritage tourism, promoting the revitalization and utilization of industrial sites through creative design, new business format integration, and facade renovation, and developing new scenarios, formats, and models for industrial tourism. It vigorously promoted "factory tours," encouraging enterprises in equipment manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, automotive, and robotics, consumer goods industries such as textiles and apparel, arts and crafts, and food processing, as well as e-commerce logistics, to innovatively launch programs including production process observation, simulated operations, hands-on experiences, and product customization, while ensuring production safety and confidentiality requirements, to create themed sightseeing factories. It called for the orderly expansion of smart industrial tourism, supporting the use of BeiDou, artificial intelligence, ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality, autonomous driving, and other digital technologies and equipment to create immersive and intelligent industrial tourism experiences. It supported industrial tourism venues in developing themed commerce, immersive experiences, specialty markets, and other formats to create "industrial tourism+" consumption scenarios. It encouraged localities to launch a batch of high-quality industrial tourism routes and brands with regional and industry characteristics. It encouraged industrial enterprises to strengthen product promotion, expand product sales, and build stronger enterprise brands through industrial tourism. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to the daily price limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts to 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 19%; it also adjusted trading limits for related crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.93, down 0.39% on the week but up 0.85% on the month. Optimistic expectations about the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran weakened safe-haven demand. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, the highest level since May 2023, in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.5%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% YoY, hitting a new high since November 2023, also in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.2%. Additionally, separate data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, below the preliminary data. The initial estimate released last month showed growth of 2%. The data indicated that US consumers became more cautious amid cost-of-living pressures and uneven labor market performance. The Middle East conflict pushed up fuel and other raw material prices, with the impact transmitting through the broader economy and sending consumer confidence to record lows. Meanwhile, this inflation data is likely to further reinforce warnings from some US Fed officials that the US Fed would need to consider raising interest rates if price pressures fail to ease. Kevin Warsh, who was just sworn in as Fed Chairman on May 22, may need to convince other officials that inflation expectations can be controlled without rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that it was too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, but he believed the US Fed should keep all policy options on the table. He said it was too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike was needed. He noted the need to continue monitoring economic data and developments in the Middle East conflict before considering whether policy adjustments were necessary. Kashkari pointed out that under both the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, inflation could remain significantly elevated for an extended period. He was closely monitoring this risk, as well as the possibility that inflation expectations could become unanchored. (Wallstreetcn) US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated that it was too early to judge the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, and policymakers needed to look through temporary price shocks. She supported officials retaining language in their statement after last month's policy meeting that hinted at the possibility of further interest rate cuts. She said that as she thought about the future path of monetary policy, she wanted a clearer understanding of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the persistence of those effects. As long as credibility in the commitment to achieving the inflation target was maintained, it was appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation primarily driven by rising energy prices. She expected the "one-off" impact of tariffs implemented by US President Trump to fade. (Wallstreetcn) Macro front: This week, China is set to release data including China's May RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and China's May RatingDog Services PMI. The US is set to release data including the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April construction spending MoM, US April JOLTs job openings, US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders MoM, US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings YoY, and US May average hourly earnings MoM. The UK is set to release data including UK May Nationwide house price index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI final, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, UK May Services PMI final, and UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM. The Eurozone is set to release data including Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone May CPI MoM preliminary, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI MoM, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final. Switzerland is set to release data including Swiss April real retail sales YoY, Swiss April trade balance, Swiss May CPI MoM, and Swiss May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. France is set to release data including France May Manufacturing PMI final, France May Services PMI final, France April industrial output MoM, and France April trade balance. Germany is set to release data including Germany May Manufacturing PMI final and Germany May Services PMI final. In addition, Australia Q1 GDP YoY and Canada May employment figures will also be released. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.28% and Brent down 0.87%. On a weekly basis, oil prices suffered heavy losses, with WTI down 9.15% and Brent down 8.3%, both recording a second consecutive weekly decline and the largest weekly drop since April. WTI fell 16.47% on the month and Brent fell 16.77% on the month, with WTI posting its largest monthly decline since November 2021 and Brent its largest monthly decline since March 2020. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 29th that the US and Iran had reached agreement on secondary issues beyond Iran's nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz passage, sending crude oil prices lower. The oil market in May underwent a clear three-phase evolution: Early month (May 1-6): Oil prices pulled back slightly from near four-year highs, but Brent briefly surged to around $114 after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase and shipping attacks, before plunging to the $101-106 range following signals of US-Iran de-escalation. Mid-month (May 7-20): Oil prices oscillated as ceasefire breakdowns alternated with mediation progress, with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintaining an elevated risk premium. Month-end (May 21-29): Driven by reports of a US-Iran agreement in principle to reopen the strait, Brent briefly fell to the $93-100 low range, WTI touched $88-92, and Brent closed around $92. (Wallstreetcn) Nevertheless, analysts emphasized that until the conflict truly ends and the strait resumes normal passage, global crude oil inventories will continue to be depleted by approximately 10 to 14 million barrels per day, and physical market fundamentals remain tight. The decline in oil prices driven by ceasefire expectations reflected more the pricing of future supply recovery rather than a fundamental change in the current supply-demand pattern. (Wallstreetcn) Recent reports revealed that calculations by Goldman Sachs showed global crude oil inventories could fall below the equivalent of 100 days of global demand as early as the end of May. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of the end of April, global crude oil inventories were equivalent to approximately 101 days of global demand, and were expected to decline to 98 days by the end of May. Of this, "visible inventories" observable through satellites and other means were estimated at only 73 days of demand. Reports indicated that currently only a few vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, resulting in a daily global crude oil supply loss exceeding 10 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn)

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM, indicating that overall business production and operations in China remained in expansion. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, with the non-manufacturing prosperity level rebounding. China's PMI Performance in May 2026 I. China's Manufacturing PMI Performance In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, sitting at the threshold level. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, above the threshold; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.6% and 48.5% respectively, down 1.9 and 1.6 percentage points MoM, both below the threshold. By sub-indices, among the five sub-indices constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index was above the threshold, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.2%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, but still above the threshold, indicating that manufacturing production activity remained in expansion. The new orders index was 49.9%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating that the prosperity level of manufacturing market demand pulled back somewhat. The raw material inventory index was 48.6%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing. The employment index was 48.6%, down 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that the prosperity level of manufacturing employment pulled back somewhat. The supplier delivery time index was 49.2%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers continued to lengthen MoM. II. China's Non-manufacturing PMI Performance In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, with the non-manufacturing prosperity level rebounding. By sector, the construction business activity index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM; the services business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. Within the services sector, industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, and insurance all had business activity indices in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%; industries such as air transportation and real estate had business activity indices below the threshold. The new orders index was 45.0%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand improved. By sector, the construction new orders index was 43.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; the services new orders index was 45.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index was 52.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall input prices for non-manufacturing business operations continued to rise. By sector, the construction input price index was 53.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; the services input price index was 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The selling price index was 48.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in overall selling prices of non-manufacturing enterprises narrowed. By sector, the construction selling price index was 48.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the services selling price index was 48.9%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month. The employment index was 45.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that employment conditions in non-manufacturing enterprises improved slightly. By sector, the construction employment index was 41.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month; the services employment index was 46.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 54.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises' confidence in market development strengthened. By sector, the construction business activity expectations index was 51.5%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month; the services business activity expectations index was 55.4%, unchanged from the previous month. III. China Composite PMI Output Index In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall enterprise production and business activities remained in expansion. Composite PMI Output Index Remained in Expansion in May — Interpretation of China's PMI for May 2026 by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) On May 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS, provided an interpretation of the data. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.5% respectively, up 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's overall economic output remained in expansion. I. Manufacturing PMI at the Threshold In May, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, indicating that overall business production and operations remained stable. (i) Enterprise production maintained expansion. The production index was 51.2%, above the threshold, as manufacturing production activities continued to expand; the new orders index was 49.9%, suggesting that market demand somewhat slowed down. By sector, the production and new orders indices for industries such as pharmaceuticals, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and computer, communications, and electronic equipment were all above 53.0%, with both production and demand sides of these industries remaining relatively active; the two indices for industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, and non-metallic mineral products remained below the threshold, with both supply and demand sides still showing insufficiency. (ii) New momentum continued to develop favorably. The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing were 52.9% and 52.1%, respectively, up 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining consistently above the threshold. In particular, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing had stayed in expansion territory for 16 consecutive months, with related industries maintaining strong growth and the leading role of new momentum continuing to emerge; the PMIs for consumer goods industries and high energy-consuming industries were 49.7% and 47.1%, respectively, down 1 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with market activity somewhat weakening. (iii) Large enterprise PMI remained consistently above the threshold. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, staying in expansion territory throughout the year, as large enterprises sustained a favorable production and operation trend; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.6% and 48.5%, respectively, with business conditions pulling back. (iv) Price indices fluctuated at high levels. The raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index were 60.5% and 51.9%, respectively, both pulling back 3.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining at relatively high levels in recent periods. Both indices stayed in expansion territory for five consecutive months, as overall market price levels in manufacturing continued to rise. By sector, the two price indices for industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, with overall purchase and sales price levels in related industries continuing to rise. II. Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index Rose above the Threshold In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, as the non-manufacturing business conditions rebounded. (i) The services business activity index rose into expansion territory. The services business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, with market activity in the services sector somewhat improving. By industry, the business activity indices for industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, and insurance were all above the relatively high prosperity range of 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume; the business activity indices for industries such as air transportation and real estate were below the critical point, indicating relatively low prosperity levels in these industries. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 55.4%, remaining in the relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service sector enterprises held generally optimistic expectations for near-term market development. (2) The construction sector business activity index rebounded. The construction sector business activity index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with improved prosperity levels. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 51.5%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that construction enterprises' confidence in future industry development recovered somewhat. 3. Composite PMI Output Index Continued to Expand In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's enterprise production and business activities generally maintained expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.2% and 50.1%, respectively.

This week, Pr-Nd oxide prices exhibited slight fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, the weak trend from last week continued; by mid-week, due to futures market price fluctuations and periodic restocking by some large enterprises, market inquiry activity picked up, leading to a slight increase in Pr-Nd oxide prices. However, overall market confidence remained insufficient, with downstream buyers being quite cautious in restocking, and actual trading volume did not increase significantly. As for the medium-heavy rare earth sector, it is currently in the demand off-season, and market inquiry activity remained sluggish. Some traders chose to sell inventory at lower prices, which kept dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices under pressure. Looking ahead, although downstream enterprises have relatively low raw material inventory levels, due to persistently weak orders, these enterprises have relatively small interest in stockpiling more raw materials. In the short term, market inquiries and procurement activities are expected to remain weak, and the overall price trend of rare earth oxides is likely to maintain a fluctuating trend with a downward bias.