Southeast Asia's aluminum scrap market rebounded this week, with key grades in Malaysia and Thailand rising, while ADC12 prices softened amid weak downstream demand. Despite lower LME aluminum prices, tight scrap supply kept offers firm. Sentiment improved slightly, but buying remained need-based. Attention also shifted to US Section 232 developments and their potential impact on trade flows and regional supply.

Around July 20, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain products in June were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE; for lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM and up 46% YoY. From January to June, China’s cumulative lithium carbonate imports totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY on a cumulative basis...... SMM compiled the import and export situation of battery materials in H1, as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: the effect of concentrated shipments at Australia’s fiscal year-end became evident, with June port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt, up 12% MoM. Mali: port arrivals rose significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable shipments, with port arrivals both staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, Nigeria saw an increase in the share of high-grade ore, with concentrates accounting for more than 65%. Zimbabwe was previously affected by transportation efficiency; June port arrivals were 42,000 mt, showing a MoM pullback. Based on SMM data screening, the overall LCE equivalent of ore arrivals in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the share of lithium concentrates in total ore arrivals fell to 72% in the month, down MoM, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt of arrivals from Brazil were lithium raw ore fines from earlier deals, dragging down the overall share of concentrates. In June 2026, China’s total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate), converted to LCE, approached 80,000 mt and stayed high, providing a solid raw material base for the continued climb in China’s lithium chemicals production. Spodumene: Import volumes continued to rise, with a notable contribution from the push for annual target at Australia’s fiscal year-end In June, China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and up 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE. The import scale remained on a high and rising trend for several consecutive months, reflecting that rigid demand from domestic lithium chemical plants for upstream ore remained strong. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM From the grade structure perspective, based on SMM data screening, the share of lithium concentrates in total ore arrivals in June fell to 72%, showing a MoM decline. The main drag came from Brazil—June port arrivals from Brazil were 65,000 mt, most of which were lithium raw ore fines from earlier deals; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall share of concentrates. Beyond spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material—lithium sulfate—also warrants attention. In June, China’s lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. By source, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape with 13,400 mt, while imports from Zimbabwe quietly rose to the hundred-mt level. Although the absolute volume remains small for now, this marks the country’s first bulk shipment of lithium sulfate to China, signaling an early indicator of a potential normalization and ramp-up in its future supply. Summary: Raw material support was firm in June, but expectations of tighter available supply are rising for July. In aggregate terms, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June approached 80,000 mt of LCE equivalent, supplemented by roughly over 30,000 mt of domestically produced lithium concentrates, bringing total domestic lithium raw material supply to over 110,000 mt of LCE. This provided ample and relatively stable raw material support for the high-level production of lithium chemicals in June. Beneath the relatively optimistic headline figures, however, a key variable stands out: most of the cargo arriving in June had its destination locked in through orders placed weeks or even months earlier, leaving only a low proportion of material entering traders’ freely available inventory. The persistence of this pre-locked structure means that as we move into July, the amount of available spot lithium ore on the market will remain tight. If the downstream pace of just-in-time procurement holds steady, the tightening of available supply will constrain lithium chemical plants’ flexibility in securing feedstocks to some extent, thus limiting the room for further production increases in July—an effect already visible in recent SMM weekly lithium carbonate production data. In terms of spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed they trended downward overall in June. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, a drop of $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the start of the month, a decline of 12.67%. According to SMM, enterprises that externally purchase spodumene to produce lithium suffered deep spot profit losses in June, with losses widening over the month. The core reason was that while spodumene concentrate prices followed the pullback in lithium carbonate, the extent of the correction was limited. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices lagged that of lithium chemicals, deepening losses in the processing segment. Regarding externally purchased lepidolite, in June, the spot profit margins of enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased lepidolite narrowed somewhat compared to May, but remained positive for the whole month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi reinforced market expectations of future supply release, and lithium carbonate futures plunged 6.58% that day. Furthermore, in the fourth week of June, the lithium carbonate market experienced an extreme pattern of 'sharp decline – weak rebound – renewed bottom testing,' further squeezing the profit margins of enterprises using externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, in June China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate, down 31% MoM and up 46% YoY. Of this, imports from Chile were 16,037 mt, accounting for 62% of total imports; imports from Argentina were 8,403 mt, accounting for 32%; and imports from Indonesia were 500 mt, accounting for 2%. From January to June, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate reached 179,000 mt, a cumulative increase of 52% YoY. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM and down 39% YoY. From January to June, cumulative exports were 2,348 mt, a cumulative decrease of 5.6% YoY. According to SMM spot price quotations, lithium carbonate spot prices also showed an overall downward trend in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, down 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, a decline of 12.57%. According to SMM, in June, China's spot lithium carbonate price center drifted lower. Fundamentally, on the supply side, news of a Jiangxi mine’s license renewal continued to disturb the market, coupled with China's May lithium carbonate imports reaching a historical high and GFEX warrants remaining at a high level of around 50,000 mt. Meanwhile, demand growth expectations were within market expectations, leading to price consolidation. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a dip-buying strategy, purchasing in large quantities to stockpile when prices fell below 160,000 yuan/mt. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 142,000–151,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in June 2026, China's imports of lithium hydroxide amounted to 4,400 mt, up 12% MoM and nearly tripling YoY. By source country, imports from South Korea were 1,159 mt, accounting for 26% of total imports; imports from Chile were 993 mt, ranking second. Notably, imports from Indonesia remained persistently low, at only 774 mt in June. On the export side, China's lithium hydroxide exports in June reached 6,018 mt, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated end-of-quarter shipments and a mild recovery in overseas demand. Of this, exports to South Korea stood at 5,032 mt and to Japan at 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, and China's lithium hydroxide trade temporarily returned to a net export position after a gap of several months. Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, while cumulative imports amounted to about 24.4 mt. On the export side, China's LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were roughly 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. In detail, the main export destinations in June were South Korea, Poland, Malaysia, Japan, and others, with exports to Poland at 336.8 mt (down about 25.47% MoM), South Korea at 319.738 mt (down about 45.9% MoM), Malaysia at 113.211 mt (down about 28.03% MoM), the US at 157.601 mt (up about 103.62% MoM), and Japan at 115.56 mt (up about 5.2% MoM). Overall, overseas procurement volume for LiPF6 edged down slightly in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports stood at 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. In terms of average import price, China's artificial graphite import price averaged 59,596 yuan/mt in June 2026, down 0.9% MoM and up 16.6% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. As for average export price, China's artificial graphite export price averaged 9,080 yuan/mt in June 2026, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Import volumes and prices fluctuated relatively mildly, with overall steady performance. Exports, however, showed a diverging pattern of "lower volumes, higher prices": the decline in export volumes was likely linked to a high base in May and adjustments in overseas phased procurement pace, while the rise in export prices was mainly driven by persistently high domestic costs. Notably, despite the drop in overall export volumes, shipments from the major export provinces for lithium battery-grade artificial graphite showed a recovery trend—one province saw its export volume surge by roughly 50% MoM, while another recorded a gain approaching 25% MoM. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China’s flake graphite imports were 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China’s flake graphite exports were 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. Both flake graphite imports and exports fell significantly MoM in June, mainly due to a high base effect from May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, while the YoY declines remained mild. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, China’s phosphoric acid exports showed a clear retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026. Exports surged to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM. However, they still posted positive YoY growth compared to June last year (up 3,500 mt), as sustained rigid demand from new energy sectors outside China offset the short-term pace-driven pullback. Shaped by full-year policy cycles and industry fundamentals, China’s phosphoric acid trade is now characterized by zero imports, pure exports, policy-induced volatility, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are influenced by both the agricultural input supply guarantee policy and the off-season and peak-season cycles in and outside China, resulting in a pattern of regular consolidation. ....... Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will remain within the window of phosphate fertiliser export controls in July–August H2 2026. Foreign sales of agricultural-grade crude phosphoric acid will be restricted, capping overall export volumes at a natural ceiling. Supported by off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to modestly recover from the June low, moving back above the central level of 30,000 mt per month. This will partly cushion the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup and strengthen the market floor with external demand resilience. On the spot side, domestic agricultural off-season demand will be weak, but with raw material costs of sulfur and phosphate ore remaining high, small and medium-sized wet-process phosphoric acid plants will continue to suffer losses and run at low utilisation rates. Enterprises will generally control production to support prices, leaving the wet-process phosphoric acid market in a stagnant consolidation pattern—soft but with no room for a deep trend decline. From September to December, the industry’s fundamentals and foreign trade landscape will improve notably. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. Together with concentrated Q4 restocking for overseas agricultural inputs, year-end capacity ramp-ups by domestic LFP enterprises, and staggered delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contracts, phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak season of the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt and hit a new annual high, while the industry’s overall export volume and trade surplus will rise in tandem. Soaring demand from both domestic and international markets is expected to drive the industry towards an inflection point and an upward trend. Not only is demand for wet process phosphoric acid continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemical sectors, strengthening in tandem and ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal processes boom. [SMM Analysis] In-Depth Review of Annual Phosphate Imports and Exports: Policy and Cyclical Drivers Reshaping Trade Structure and the Industry's New Landscape Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January-June), China's phosphate ore imports reached 998,200 mt, a YoY increase of 29.66%; exports were 133,900 mt, a YoY increase of 225.91%; net imports stood at 864,300 mt. Four Major Core Changes 1. Imports rebounded to high levels last seen in 2024 . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt grew 29.66% from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the 986,600 mt level recorded in H1 2024. The monthly peak for the first half was 243,900 mt in January 2026, with secondary highs of 206,600 mt in April and 182,100 mt in March. The import side has significantly rebounded from the trough of H1 2025 (769,800 mt), confirming that a high-import norm has been established since 2024. 2. Exports tripled, hitting a near four-year high . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, marking the highest level since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). A Q2 volume surge structure formed with 50,900 mt in June, 32,200 mt in May, and 11,100 mt in April, which highly coincides with the event window of Egypt announcing a halt to signing new phosphate ore export contracts on May 13 (pivoting towards exports of higher value-added phosphate fertiliser). 3. Net imports remain high but narrowed . H1 2026 net imports of 864,300 mt were notably higher than both the 942,800 mt in H1 2024 (historical peak) and 728,700 mt in H1 2025, reflecting a persistent supply gap for domestic phosphate ore and a continued high level of import dependency. 4. The traditional H1 and H2 seasonal pattern has been broken. In previous years, H1 imports were typically lower than H2 imports (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 totalled 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than the cumulative H1 total). However, H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt are already approaching the 949,900 mt of H2 2025 — the traditional pattern, where the peak season for winter stockpiling was deferred to Q3-Q4, has been broken, with the import pace becoming more year-round. ......... H2 Outlook: Imports: H1 imports have already reached 998,200 mt . In H2, driven by winter stockpiling procurement and LFP cathode material stockpiling (in preparation for the Q3-Q4 NEV peak season), H2 2026 imports are expected to be 1.1-1.3 million mt, bringing full-year imports to 2.1-2.3 million mt, a YoY increase of 15%-25%. This would set a new record high since 2023. Exports : June alone saw an acceleration to 50,900 mt, and exports are expected to reach 100,000-200,000 mt in July-September. With Q4 driven by overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) and a reshuffling of export competition among Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, full-year exports are estimated at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net Imports: Net imports in 2026 are forecast at 1.7-2 million mt, still at historically high levels, reflecting that the undersupply of domestic phosphate ore cannot be fundamentally resolved in the medium term, with dependency on overseas sources (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Peru, Algeria) continuing to rise. Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid China's Monthly Sulphur Imports Change (2025 H1 vs. 2026 H1) China's sulphur imports in H1 2026 exhibited a trend of "accelerating monthly contraction." Cumulative imports from January to June were approximately 2.26 million mt , down sharply by 57.7% from the 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, with average monthly imports plunging from around 800,000 mt in 2025 to roughly 380,000 mt. On a monthly trend, imports were sustained around 500,000 mt per month in Q1 (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); beginning in April, a precipitous drop occurred, with April falling to 296,000 mt and May to 268,000 mt, while June touched 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) —meaning June imports alone shrank to less than one-fifth of the 988,000 mt recorded in the same month of 2025. Historically, full-year 2025 imports totaled around 9.61 million mt , averaging about 800,000 mt per month and remaining stable, whereas the 147,000 mt in June 2026 marks a rare low in recent years. If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, H2 imports could face further pressure, with the full-year total expected to be only about 40% of 2025's volume. ....... Sulphur Imports: Volume Plunge and Source Realignment —H1 2026 imports were about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share accounted for by the four Middle Eastern countries was halved (from ~35% to ~20%), while South Korea, Oman, and Canada filled the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric Acid Exports: Ban-Induced Clearance —H1 2026 exports were around 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , marking a precipitous exit from the global market; Indonesia became the top destination. Common logic: the dual effect of geopolitical conflicts & export controls , China is shifting from a global sulfur hub to self-preserving contraction. Cobalt Side Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were approximately 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM and down 42% YoY, of which imports from DRC were approximately 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM and down 43% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in June 2026 was $16,352/mt in physical content, down 1.54% MoM. Of this month's intermediate product imports, approximately 7,561 mt in physical content entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; Ordinary Trade accounted for about 2,849 mt in physical content, or 26%; Processing Trade with Imported Materials accounted for about 550 mt in physical content, or 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought cobalt stood at about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and up 105% YoY. By country, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. In June, although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly and the import-export window remained completely closed, overseas traders still opted to ship refined cobalt to China due to weak overseas demand for refined cobalt, leading to a substantial increase in China's imports. The average import price of unwrought cobalt in June 2026 was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. Exports side, in June 2026, China's exports of unwrought cobalt were about 503 mt, up 36% MoM but down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. The average export price of unwrought cobalt in June 2026 was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. In January-June 2026, cumulative exports totaled 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range. The futures market saw intensifying volatility, with the most-traded contract 2609's price range consolidating from 141,400-154,800 yuan/mt at the week's start to 137,200-148,500 yuan/mt. After hitting a weekly low of 136,800 yuan/mt mid-week, prices rebounded, while open interest continued to decline. Market transactions reflected a pattern of downstream users buying the dip and purchasing as needed, while upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling spot orders, with persistently weak willingness to sell and firm quotes, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of dip-buying and purchasing as needed, with purchase willingness strengthening when prices fell to relatively low levels, though large-scale restocking had yet to emerge. Trader inventories continued to destock due to downstream just-in-time procurement and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable, while the spot-futures price spread continued to strengthen. Supply-side production maintained a decreasing trend, with upstream inventory staying low. This week, lithium carbonate production continued its decreasing trend, mainly because some spodumene and lepidolite-based smelters underwent maintenance, coupled with gradually tightening circulation of spodumene ore, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of lithium chemical plants. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants showed noticeable sentiment to hold back from selling, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels; downstream material plants continued their just-in-time procurement strategy by buying the dip, with inventory remaining largely stable; traders' inventory continued to destock under the impact of downstream purchasing as needed and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a slight upward consolidation trend within a range. Supply-side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening spodumene ore circulation will lend support to prices; demand-side, downstream dip-buying continues, but large-scale centralized stockpiling has yet to appear. Currently, tightening spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread provide bottom support for prices. Close attention should still be paid to the August production schedule expectations of downstream players and whether there are expectations of further tightening in spot lithium carbonate circulation.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Artificial Graphite Cost Support Gradually Strengthening, Natural Graphite Demand Weakness Hard to Change] July 23 — This week, artificial graphite market prices remained stable. In terms of supply, the integrated capacity of leading anode enterprises struggled to match the continuous growth in downstream orders.

Over the past three weeks, the domestic spot market for platinum group metal (PGM) compounds has exhibited the following pattern: raw materials fluctuate sharply in tandem with macro sentiment, compound quotations passively rise and fall accordingly, while trading volume remains sluggish and dominated by rigid demand. Platinum and palladium raw materials have been pulled back and forth by Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, triggering wide swings on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and palladium futures market. Mainstream compounds including chloroplatinic acid, chloropalladic acid and rhodium nitrate adjust in line with primary metal feedstocks. However, processing margins for compounds remain thin, resulting in weaker price volatility compared with primary platinum and palladium ingots. The market features low inventory levels, slow shipments and batch-based purchasing. Midstream manufacturers avoid exposure risks to raw material prices, while downstream end-users adopt production-based procurement strategies. The signing of long-term contracts slows down, spot bulk orders account for a higher share, and widespread market caution prevails. Divergence across PGM compound varieties persists: platinum-based compounds receive incremental demand support from hydrogen energy and semiconductor sectors; palladium-based compounds remain under pressure; minor varieties including rhodium, ruthenium and iridium show greater independent price swings subject to fluctuations in segmented orders. Platinum-based Compounds Stable rigid demand stems from capacity expansion of electronic glass fibre fabrics, catalytic precursors for hydrogen fuel cells, and catalysts for nitric acid chemical production. Demand for diesel vehicle exhaust aftertreatment stays steady. Diversified demand offsets headwinds from the automotive catalyst segment. Palladium-based Compounds Output of internal combustion engine vehicles faces downward pressure, while July and August mark the seasonal low for automobile manufacturing. Several automakers conventionally arrange high-temperature production shutdowns and maintenance from late July to August, dragging down shipment momentum. Rhodium-based Compounds Rhodium raw material prices have trended higher over the past month amid divergent market expectations between buyers and sellers. Downstream clients prioritise inventory drawdown and procure only as needed. Holders are reluctant to cut prices substantially to offload stocks, extending negotiation cycles for spot orders and leading to generally slow shipment speeds. Ruthenium & Iridium-based Compounds Ruthenium raw material prices have surged significantly and traded at elevated levels in mid-to-late July. Trading merchants and smelters hold back supply out of reluctance to sell. They prioritise fulfilling existing long-term contracts and delay releasing spot supplies. The spot market sees quoted prices paired with limited available material, with abundant enquiries but limited concluded trades.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Graphitisation Tolling Services Prices Steady in Stalemate, Downstream Push for Lower Prices Easing] July 23: This week, China's graphitisation tolling services prices overall maintained a stable trend.

This week (7.17-7.23), the machine operating rate of the enamelled wire industry declined WoW...

[SMM Coking Coal & Coke Daily Review] Coking Coal Market: The quotation for low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was 2,020 yuan/mt. Coking coal, safety inspections at coal mines maintained a high-pressure posture, and the pace of production resumptions at halted mines was slow. However, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, leading to increased wait-and-see sentiment in the coking coal market. The trading atmosphere was sluggish, mines signed few new orders, and failed auctions were still quite common in online bidding. But affected by new coal mine safety regulations, the market generally believed there was pressure on coal supply guarantees. In the short term, coking coal prices may remain in the doldrums. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry-quenched) was 2,035 yuan/mt. Supply side, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and most coke enterprises suffered losses. However, coking coal prices were expected to decline, and currently, coke enterprises maintained stable operations. Additionally, the pace of coke shipments slowed down, and coke inventories at plants further accumulated. Demand side, end-use demand remained weak, steel mills increased blast furnace maintenance plans, maintained a cautious stance toward coke procurement, and controlled the pace of coke arrivals. In summary, the coke supply-demand structure further loosened, and in the short term, the coke market may remain in the doldrums, with expectations of a second round of price cuts. [SMM Steel]

SMM July 23: Raw material side: This week, trading in China’s petroleum coke market was slightly divergent, with the low-sulphur petroleum coke market performing well while mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke came under some pressure. On the refinery side, major refineries collectively held prices firm to support the market. CNOOC raised its petroleum coke offers steadily across its refineries, with overall trading activity markedly improving; PetroChina’s in-factory inventory of low-sulphur petroleum coke in north-east China was at a low level, and with centralized release of downstream rigid demand, EXW prices climbed steadily, completing staggered price increases at multiple sites on July 22. For refineries under Sinopec, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved recently, providing some support to coke prices, which were raised slightly by 20-100 yuan/mt. Local refineries, on the other hand, saw divergent overall shipment performance. For low-sulphur petroleum coke, driven by price increases from major refineries, prices edged up; for mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke, downstream purchasing willingness was moderate, and the market was mainly under pressure. The latest SMM data showed that the NE China #1 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 4,415.73 yuan/mt, up 2.04% WoW; the Shandong #2 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 4,237.31 yuan/mt, up 1.13% WoW; the Shandong #3 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 3,696.83 yuan/mt, down 1.87% WoW; and the Shandong #4 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 2,003.69 yuan/mt, down 0.74% WoW. On the supply side, some units that were under maintenance earlier gradually resumed production this week, and coking operating rates slowly recovered. On the demand side, increased purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream anode material market supported the low-sulphur petroleum coke market, which held up well. The market for carbon used in aluminum production still held a wait-and-see sentiment, and high-priced products saw insufficient downstream purchasing willingness, hindering the transmission of price increases. Coupled with geopolitical instability, continuously climbing crude oil prices provided cost support. In the short term, petroleum coke prices are expected to consolidate, with continuing divergence across grades. The coal tar pitch market trend remained subdued this week. As of Thursday this week, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,705 yuan/mt, down 3.35% WoW. On the cost side, high-temperature coal tar continued to weaken, tar deep-processing enterprises raised operating rates, commercial pitch was in ample supply, and overall supply was loose. Downstream, although prebaked anode consumption remained rigid supported by high aluminum capacity, raw material inventory was at high levels, and buyers pushed for lower prices while sticking to need-based purchases. Demand from secondary downstream sectors such as carbon black was sluggish and failed to provide a boost, resulting in thin trading. In the short term, under a loose supply-demand balance, coal tar pitch is likely to consolidate at lows on a weak note. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode held firm this week. Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises maintained a production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in regions such as Xinjiang and Guangxi came on stream successively, with new capacity being released continuously. Meanwhile, some enterprises saw their operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall, the industry’s supply capability improved steadily, and supply flexibility further increased. Demand side, China’s operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing stable rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export front, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come on stream, driving sustained improvement in China’s anode exports. Overall, new prebaked anode supply in China was continuously realized, high operating rates in downstream aluminum effectively underpinned domestic demand, and the export market saw marginal improvement. The industry’s supply-demand balance remained generally stable, but with continuous release of new capacity, supply growth slightly outpaced demand growth, and the competitive landscape tended to intensify. Brief Comment: This week, the raw material market trends for prebaked anode in China showed intensified divergence: the petroleum coke market saw varying regional performance but overall fundamentals remained supportive, while the pullback in coal tar pitch prices slightly dragged on anode costs, and overall production costs remained stable. According to SMM data, as of July 23, China’s prebaked anode production cost was 5,556.7 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, on the cost side, petroleum coke is expected to have strong bottom support, coal tar pitch is likely to consolidate on a subdued note, and overall raw material support for anode costs will be moderate. On the supply-demand front, high operating rates at domestic aluminum enterprises will continue to support anode domestic demand, and marginal recovery in export orders brings growth; however, the concentrated release of new capacity and continuous supply expansion intensify market competition. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of new capacity releases and the divergence between petroleum coke and coal tar pitch on the cost side.

SMM July 23 News: This week, trading sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market weakened, and prices held steady overall. As of now, SMM's mainstream quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite market also stayed stable, with SMM's cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt, showing no significant fluctuations. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged, while comprehensive production costs stayed high. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices of 3,150-3,500 yuan/mt and persistent regional price spreads. Supply side, domestic mine safety supervision tightened, standardized controls on underground mining operations were implemented, and technological transformation and rectification cycles extended, chronically constraining effective capacity release. Combined with port freight restrictions during Mongolia's Naadam festival, imported fluorite ore supply saw periodic reductions, widening the domestic raw material supply gap and providing strong support for fluorite prices. Meanwhile, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises' procurement enthusiasm recovered slightly, with restocking for rigid demand increasing. Supply-demand dual positives reinforced fluorite's upward trend. For supporting raw materials, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,687 yuan/mt, down 0.18% MoM; the sulphuric acid market high-end prices loosened, and the transaction center moved lower steadily. After offsetting the mixed raw material changes, aluminum fluoride's comprehensive production cost remained elevated. Supply side: The industry remained stuck in a negative cycle of high costs, production losses, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further worsened enterprises' losses on production, with losses across the industry continuing to widen. Most enterprises stepped up equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, and the overall operating rate kept falling. Currently, enterprises mostly adopted strategies to contract operations, prioritizing delivery of long-term contract orders, with no new production schedules planned. Effective supply growth in the market was limited, and spot cargo was tight overall. Demand side: Downstream aluminum industry's operating capacity stayed high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and underpinning market bottom prices. However, aluminum enterprises' overall procurement sentiment remained cautious and conservative, mainly restocking in small quantities for rigid demand. Strong sentiment to push for lower prices and wait-and-see prevailed, with no concentrated restocking or additional procurement, which was insufficient to drive market prices higher. Brief review: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends diverged. Fluorite strengthened and lifted the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid pulled back slightly, offsetting some pressure. Industry overall cost remained elevated, enterprise profit margins were hard to recover, and production motivation stayed weak. Currently, tug-of-war between upstream and downstream was intense, lacking drivers for one-sided price moves, and market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand orders. Short-term aluminum fluoride and cryolite prices are expected to continue the stalemate with stable quotes. Subsequent focus will be on tracking trends in raw material cost fluctuations such as fluorite, as well as marginal changes in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.