[SMM Analysis]Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March, Expected to Decline in April

SMM Express: China's steel export prices remained stable today, with most shipments scheduled for May to June. Intraday market inquiries were active, and HRC order-taking also improved recently, with most deals concluded at $480-485/mt, while some transactions in North China were closed at $475/mt. Billet performance remained steady, while slab trading volume saw a significant increase, mostly concentrated among private enterprises.

[Brief Review of China's Domestic Iron Ore Market] The domestic ore market in Tangshan remained generally stable. The ex-factory prices of iron ore concentrates with 66 grade on a dry basis, tax included, stood at 970-980 yuan/mt. Recently, the pace of steel enterprises' ordering slowed down, with steel mills mainly purchasing as needed, and the overall desire to bargain down prices was relatively strong. Mines and beneficiation plants faced certain resistance in shipments, but most asking prices remained firm, with sellers unwilling to sell below their psychological expectations.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] In terms of supply, coking costs declined somewhat, coke enterprise profits saw some recovery, production remained relatively stable, and downstream demand for coke was strong, with coke inventory at coke enterprises staying at low levels. Demand side, steel mill hot metal production increased slightly, demand for coke was strong, and some steel mills had relatively low coke inventory levels, with urgent procurement requests for coke. In summary, coke fundamentals were in a tight balance, the short-term coke market was expected to hold up well and remain generally stable with slight rise, and regarding the second round of coke price increase, coke and steel enterprises were still in a standoff.

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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Brazilian mining giant Vale has officially ordered its first fleet of ethanol-powered ocean-going bulk carriers from Shandong Shipping to service its international iron ore trade. This landmark order is a crucial component of Vale's strategy to decarbonize its maritime supply chain and reduce scope 3 emissions associated with shipping raw materials to global steelmakers. The introduction of alternative fuels in maritime logistics is expected to significantly impact long-term freight costs in the seaborne iron ore market.

The Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) market looks firm on the surface — but dig one layer deeper and two very different realities emerge for high-grade and low-grade material.

Since the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, tensions in the Middle East have persisted for 45 days. Against this backdrop, the die-casting zinc alloy market in China has been affected to varying degrees in terms of costs, demand, and industrial structure. The following is a detailed analysis.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, tomorrow will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In terms of market structure, copper prices rose during the day, but the inter-month contango price spread between futures contracts maintained a certain width, and suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. According to SMM, after copper prices returned above the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, orders from downstream enterprises declined notably, and demand-side support weakened somewhat. In addition, some suppliers had already begun making tentative offers against the next-month contract during the day. Since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, based on the price spread conversion, the passive premium room after the contract rollover is limited. Spot prices against the front-month contract are expected to be at a slight premium or near parity tomorrow.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.