[Geopolitical Tensions Boost LME, China Inventory Buildup and Weakening Demand Under Pressure] In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse. The strength in LME will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high inventory and weak demand in China will suppress overall gains. Going forward, the focus should be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the domestic manganese sulfate market continued its pre-holiday upward trend, with prices maintaining stable and firm operation without significant fluctuations. On the supply side, although some enterprises suspended production for maintenance during the holiday leading to short-term fluctuations, the industry's low inventory pattern remained unchanged.

[SMM Chromium Daily Review: Market Operated Steadily with Mediocre Performance Ahead of the Holiday] February 5, 2026: The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia today was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry reached 58.16% in April 2025, up 5.27% MoM from April and up 3.9% YoY from April last year. Since Q2, the industry has maintained a favorable operational trend. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises increased by 4.65% MoM to 73.56%, that of medium-sized enterprises rose by 5.5% MoM to 51.21%, and that of small enterprises improved by 7.63% MoM to 33.9%.

[5.14 Morning Meeting Minutes] This month, affected by destocking at downstream material plants, the production schedule for some precursors has declined, and the procurement demand for nickel salts has weakened. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have low raw material inventory levels and expectations for production cuts. Nickel salt smelters are not enthusiastic about shipping. The nickel salts available in the market are also relatively limited. Looking ahead, the current nickel salt market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. It is expected that nickel salt prices will remain stable.

SMM Nickel News on May 14: Macro News: (1) On May 13, the US Department of Labor released the April CPI data. The unadjusted year-on-year CPI rate was 2.3%, hitting a new low since February 2021 and falling below the expected 2.4%. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI rate was 0.2%, also missing the expected 0.3%. In April, the unadjusted year-on-year core CPI rate in the US was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and remaining at the lowest level since March 2021. The month-on-month rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. (2) The State Taxation Administration uses VAT invoice data calculated at current prices to monitor the daily sales revenue of enterprises nationwide, reflecting the macroeconomic operation trend. The latest data shows that in April, the growth rate of nationwide enterprise sales revenue accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since Q4 last year. This reflects the continuous release of the effects of a package of existing and incremental policies since the end of September last year, boosting the economic rebound. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 124,500-125,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,925 yuan/mt, up 1,125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 2,100-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium and discount quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures Market: Today, non-ferrous metals generally rose. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) opened lower in the night session yesterday and then continued to rise. The daytime session maintained the upward trend, closing at 125,060 yuan/mt by 11:30, with a gain of 0.67%. The China-US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on tariff issues, easing trade tensions. Currently, nickel ore prices remain high, and the shortage of supply in mining areas persists, driving up the costs of the nickel industry chain. However, under the supply surplus situation, cost transmission is hindered, and nickel prices may remain in the doldrums, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to policy adjustments in Indonesia and changes in nickel ore supply after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines.

[VAT invoice data shows: National corporate sales revenue increased by 4.3% YoY in April] The State Taxation Administration uses VAT invoice data calculated at current prices to monitor national corporate sales revenue on a daily basis, reflecting the macroeconomic operation trend. The latest data shows that in April, the growth rate of national corporate sales revenue accelerated, increasing by 4.3% YoY, continuing the steady growth trend since Q4 last year. This reflects the continuous release of the effects of a package of existing and incremental policies since the end of September last year, boosting the economic rebound.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, according to the SMM survey, due to poor profits at EAF steel mills and weakening demand, some electric furnace plants in south China adjusted their operating hours downward. Some electric furnace plants in central and south-west China also conducted temporary maintenance due to raw material procurement issues. This week, the national electric furnace operating rate dropped to 36.52%, down 1.82% WoW. On the demand side, the market enthusiasm for construction materials demand in May waned, and continuous rainfall during the flooding season in south China disrupted construction schedules. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the fundamentals is not yet prominent. It will take some time for positive news such as RRR cuts, reductions in housing provident fund loan interest rates, and the advancement of Sino-US peace talks at the macro level to be implemented. The market sentiment is one of wait-and-see, and merchants are operating more cautiously. It is expected that construction material prices may fluctuate in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to any changes in the macro direction.

Today, DCE iron ore futures opened higher and then fluctuated downward, with the most-traded contract I2509 eventually closing at 708, up 0.35% for the day. Traders' enthusiasm for selling was moderate; steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with some purchasing as planned, resulting in a generally moderate market transaction atmosphere. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 760-765 yuan/mt, up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices; in the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were approximately 770-780 yuan/mt, also up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. This morning, at a State Council press conference, a series of macroeconomic stimulus policy packages were announced, significantly boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the market once again received key signals indicating that the policy to reduce crude steel production was about to be implemented. Bulls and bears engaged in intense competition around policy expectations and fundamental logic, driving iron ore futures prices to fluctuate considerably. From a fundamental data perspective, according to the latest weekly survey by SMM, due to the postponement of maintenance plans at individual steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate among sampled steel mills reached 88.96%, up 0.07 percentage points WoW; the daily average pig iron production of sampled steel mills reached 2.4579 million mt, an increase of 4,400 mt WoW, continuing to maintain a high-level operation trend and providing bottom support for spot iron ore prices. 》Subscribe to view SMM's historical spot metal prices