Domestic ore prices in Liaoxi edged down, with current 66% grade iron ore concentrates, on a wet basis, tax-exclusive EXW price at 700-705 yuan/mt. Recently, frequent rains in some areas have continued to restrict mining operations, and ROM ore shortages constrained operating rates at ore processing plants. Inventories at operating plants are mostly at low levels, and with no urgency to cash in, they are holding firm offers. Steel mills are still predominantly purchasing as needed, with a relatively strong desire to bargain down prices. It is expected that in the short term, local iron ore concentrates prices may remain in the doldrums. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News-wise, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong regions accepted a 50 yuan/mt increase for wet-quenched coke and a 55 yuan/mt increase for dry-quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 1, 2026. Supply side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented, with most coke producers turning a profit and maintaining moderate operating rates. Coupled with active selling by coke enterprises, their own coke inventory was kept within a reasonable range. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mills is expected to decline, weakening rigid demand for coke. In addition, meager steel mill profits limit their ability to absorb further price hikes. In summary, recent weakness in steel prices has led to a slight pullback in market sentiment. In the short term, the coke market is likely to remain generally stable with a slight upward bias.

[SMM Titanium Express] As of July 1, the SMM China TiO₂ Index stood at 15,732 yuan/ton, down 4.4% from early June. June operating rates remained high at 78.67%, with production down 2.72% month-on-month and inventories down 5.4%. May exports fell 21.05% month-on-month to 152,800 tons, though cumulative year-on-year growth remained at 12.55%.

[Mideast Situation Adds New Uncertainties, Aluminum Prices Continue in the Doldrums] The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The hawkish shift by the US Fed has boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China have fallen. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums.

As of June 30, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills mainly producing construction steel nationwide was 39.0%, down 2.28% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 40.89%, down 2.10% WoW; and the daily average production of construction steel was 91,100 mt, down 4,700 mt WoW.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt. On the futures market, the most-traded contract consolidated at 8,400 yuan/mt. With strong support below prices, there is limited downside room, while upside bullish drivers are insufficient. The silicon metal market was stagnant and consolidating at lows. Wafers: In the wafer market, 18X wafer prices are at 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt. In initial trading, prices consolidated repeatedly, hitting an intraday high of $1,898/mt. Subsequently, the bulls’ upward momentum faded, and prices drifted lower. During the European session, the decline accelerated, with prices touching a low of $1,871/mt. Towards the end of the session, prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, eventually settling at $1,872/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down $20.5/mt, a decline of 1.08%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened slightly lower at 16,040 yuan/mt. After briefly rising to 16,065 yuan/mt in early trading, the bulls lacked momentum, and bears entered to push prices lower. The price continued to pull back, hitting a low of 15,950 yuan/mt. At the low, some buying support led to a minor rebound, and it eventually settled at 15,975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.47%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest saw a slight increase of 238 lots. The trend was a retreat after a rapid rise, showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Trump disclosed a 927-page fundraising financial report exceeding $1 billion. The US Fed’s Hammack: Inflation is still too high and may require considering interest rate hikes. Japan stated that no intervention was made in the foreign exchange market from April 28 to May 27. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I would not be surprised if the June employment data is very strong. An MIIT official: Step up efforts in tackling key materials such as lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory. Spot fundamentals: The SHFE lead center shifted further downward, and in early trading it once briefly broke below the 16,000 yuan/mt level. Suppliers showed widening divergence in selling, with some raising their offer premiums, while others kept selling at parity. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters also diverged, with regional price spreads narrowing. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, and quotations were scarce. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few at premiums of 100 yuan/mt, but there were also some discounted cargoes. Today was the last trading day of end-June, and downstream enterprises showed pronounced risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment. Some were looking to buy at lower prices on demand, and trading activity in the spot order market improved slightly. Inventory: As of June 30, LME lead inventory increased by 375 mt to 297,375 mt. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. As of June 29, SMM statistics showed that total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China climbed to 71,200 mt, hitting a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure continuing to manifest. Lead Price Forecast Today: Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to weigh on lead prices from a macro perspective; although LME inventory pulled back slightly, the Q2 consumption off-season outside China brought demand-side bearishness. China's primary smelters cut production slightly due to ore supply constraints, while secondary smelters' operating rates declined, dragged by losses and scrap battery raw material shortages, resulting in a market with weak supply and demand. Downstream maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, only making on-demand purchases and buying the dip. In the short term, lead prices are expected to consolidate largely in the doldrums.

In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

As of June 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 24,350 yuan/mt, down 615 yuan/mt for the month, a decline of 2.46%. June saw SHFE zinc retreat from highs, touching a high of 25,355 yuan/mt early in the month and a low of 23,720 yuan/mt at month-end, with the overall price center pulling back. Entering July, the ore tightness situation in China persists; how will zinc prices perform?

Electrolytic manganese entered its traditional off-season in May and June 2026, with the market witnessing a loose supply-demand surplus and narrow price fluctuation ranges. Hit by sluggish downstream purchases, prices once corrected notably......