[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Imbalance Between Raw Material Supply and Consumption Escalates, Lead Prices May Remain in Stalemate] The US dollar index hit a new low this month, with the Japanese yen rising by over 1%, the offshore RMB gaining over 300 points during intraday trading, breaking through 7.18 and reaching a new six-month high. After the previous SHFE lead delivery, the supply re-entered the market, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand. The visible inventory of lead ingots declined, providing some room for lead prices to rebound. In addition, secondary lead smelters recently collectively lowered their scrap battery collection prices...

During the Labour Day holiday, risk events piled up in global financial markets. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected and lowered its economic growth forecast. The robust US April non-farm payrolls report pushed back expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. OPEC agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June and is expected to further accelerate the pace of production increases. The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses stockpiled goods ahead of tariff implementation, leading to record imports. US manufacturing contracted further in April, with tariffs squeezing supply chains and keeping input prices elevated. Initial jobless claims in the US rose to a two-month high, exceeding market expectations. US stocks climbed steadily, with the three major indices hitting fresh highs in over a month, focusing on the Fed's policy outlook. Japanese stocks rose for the seventh consecutive trading day, marking the longest winning streak since August 2023. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index hit a nearly one-month high amid signs of easing trade tensions. The US dollar index pulled back from three-week highs, supported by strong employment data and a relaxation in trade tensions. The offshore yuan strengthened past the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November last year. In commodities, CBOT soybeans bottomed out and rebounded, having briefly touched a two-week low, influenced by trade war sentiment. LME copper continued to rebound in May, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions. Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low, weighed down by a robust jobs report. Oil prices continued to probe lower amid concerns over increased supply due to OPEC's accelerated production increases. **US Stocks Rise for Second Consecutive Week** US stocks rose significantly during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising for the second consecutive week. The three major indices hit fresh highs in over a month, supported by strong economic data and the potential easing of trade tensions. The US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. The data helped alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown. Earlier, the US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted for the first time in three years, impacted by a surge in tariff-induced imports. The Fed's meeting this week will test the significant rebound in US stocks, with investors expecting the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the coming months. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep borrowing costs unchanged when it issues its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, market pricing suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as June. **US Dollar Index Pulls Back from Three-Week High** The US dollar rose to a three-week high during the Labour Day holiday. Despite the contraction in US GDP, other data suggested the economy remained resilient, while investors assessed the prospects of a deal between the US and its trading partners. The US economy contracted in Q1, worse than market expectations but better than the pessimistic forecasts of some major US banks. The US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis. The world's largest economy added more jobs than expected in April, reflecting a stable labour market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The jobs report strengthened expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at its next few meetings and not cut rates until summer. **CBOT Soybeans Bottom Out and Rebound** US soybeans bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising 1.19%. They touched a two-week low on the last trading day of April, mainly influenced by trade war sentiment. Entering May, they rebounded from a two-week low amid hopes of an easing of trade tensions. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report released on Thursday showed that net export sales of soybeans for the current marketing year in the US increased by 428,200 mt in the week ended April 24, up 55% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Market estimates ranged from a net increase of 150,000 mt to a net increase of 600,000 mt. On May 2 (Friday), data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large speculators reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybean futures and options by 59 lots to 5,768 lots in the week ended April 29. **LME Copper Rebounds After Initial Decline** LME copper futures bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having fallen over 3% on the last trading day of April and 6% for the month, the largest monthly decline since June 2022, dragged down by lingering trade uncertainties. US Comex copper futures fell 5.5% on Wednesday, with the sharp decline attributed to investors liquidating arbitrage positions held in anticipation of US tariffs on copper. Entering May, LME copper continued to rebound, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions providing support for copper prices. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell 23.5% from last Friday to 89,307 mt, the lowest since January 17, providing support for copper prices. Inventories plunged nearly one-third last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 3,424 lots to 20,013 lots in the week ended April 29. The London Metal Exchange (LME) market was closed on Monday (May 5) for the UK's early May bank holiday and resumed trading on Tuesday (May 6). **NYMEX Crude Oil Continues to Probe Lower** International oil prices continued to probe lower during the Labour Day holiday, with both major benchmarks hitting new lows since April 9. In April, Brent crude futures fell 18%, and US crude futures fell 18%, the largest monthly decline since November 2021. Oil prices suffered their largest weekly decline since late March last week. Brent crude fell over 8%, and US crude fell about 7.7%. Concerns over increased supply arose as OPEC is expected to further accelerate production increases. Eight OPEC countries agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. Barclays and ING lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC decision. Barclays cut its Brent crude forecast for 2025 by $4 to $66 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel, while ING expects the average price of Brent crude this year to fall to $65 from a previous estimate of $70. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week due to increased exports and refinery demand, while gasoline inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA said that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ended April 25, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 429,000 barrels. The EIA said that crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, futures delivery hub rose by 682,000 barrels last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options in the week ended April 29. The data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options in New York and London by 2,716 lots to 116,599 lots in the week. **Gold Prices Rebound from Two-Week Low** Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having briefly touched a two-week low and falling for the second consecutive week, weighed down by an easing of trade tensions and a robust jobs report. Gold prices rose over 2% on Monday, driven by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand, as the market awaited the Fed's policy decision later in the week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, compared with an expected increase of 130,000, with the March increase revised down to 185,000. Following the report, traders bet that the Fed would wait until July to begin cutting interest rates, having previously expected a cut in June. Barclays and Goldman Sachs also pushed back their estimates for interest rate cuts from June to July. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold futures and options by 9,857 lots to 115,865 lots in the week ended April 29. In the same week, speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options by 5,078 lots to 31,252 lots. US Data: The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses imported heavily to avoid cost increases caused by tariffs, underscoring the disruptive nature of President Trump's chaotic trade policies. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% on a QoQ basis in Q1, the first contraction since Q1 2022. Another report on monthly consumer spending showed that consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, higher than the expected increase of 0.5%. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector job growth in the US slowed more than expected in April. Only 62,000 jobs were added, with the March increase revised down to 147,000. Economists had previously forecast 115,000 job additions in April. US manufacturing contracted for the second consecutive month in April, with tariffs on imported goods putting pressure on supply chains, keeping factory ex-factory prices elevated, and prompting some companies to lay off workers. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, the lowest in five months. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. A report released by the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 in the week ended April 26. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. Economists had previously forecast 130,000 job additions in April. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The US services PMI rose 0.8 points MoM to 51.6 in April, with the index measuring prices paid by businesses for materials and services surging to its highest level in over two years, indicating that tariff-induced inflationary pressures are increasing. The survey showed that US services companies are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices and a sharp drop in federal spending due to the government's pursuit of significant spending cuts. **OPEC Agrees to Increase Oil Production by 411,000 bpd in June** Eight OPEC countries agreed on May 3 to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In a statement, OPEC said that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining market stability amid current healthy oil market fundamentals and raised production. OPEC said that its policy of gradually increasing production may be paused or reversed depending on changes in market conditions. The statement also said that the eight OPEC countries would hold their next meeting on June 1. Risk events in financial markets remain abundant after the holiday. The Fed begins a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the focus will be on when the Fed may restart its easing cycle and whether policy action will be taken at the June meeting. China will release its April trade data on May 9 and April inflation data on May 10. In addition, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday.

On the macro front, the macro environment remained subdued this week, with key economic data indicators mostly released during the Labour Day holiday. Investors expected China to be more resilient than the US, but concerns about economic slowdown, US tariffs, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies led to increased market volatility. Expectations for policy easing cooled, with greater focus on long-term reforms rather than short-term stimulus. China's April PMI pulled back this week, with most indicators fluctuating below the 50 mark, indicating a short-term slowdown. The offshore yuan (USDCNH) gapped lower to 7.27, driven by exporters selling US dollars, stop-loss orders, and a lower central parity rate. This week, LME copper fluctuated rangebound around $9,300-9,450/mt, while SHFE copper fluctuated rangebound between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, it was heard this week that exports from the Collahuasi copper mine faced hindered transportation, and copper concentrates originally destined for China from the US were redirected to regions such as Japan, South Korea, and India due to tariff impacts. The raw material market remained tight. For copper cathode, the destocking speed in China was astonishingly fast in April, with SMM social inventory dropping below 130,000 mt as of the day of publication. Spot premiums continued to rise. The backwardation structures for nearby months in LME, SHFE, and BC copper all widened, with downstream fabricators overstocking during the Labour Day holiday to guard against a surge in spot premiums in the future. Looking ahead to next week, on the macro front, trade war negotiations still await further progress, with short-term export rigidity taking a hit. On the fundamental front, the rigidity of copper market supply and destocking expectations during the Labour Day holiday are still expected to support copper prices. It is anticipated that LME copper will fluctuate between $9,200-9,500/mt, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 76,000-78,500 yuan/mt. On the spot front, registered warrants in China have decreased to around 40,000 mt, and spot premiums continue to show an upward trend, with upside room remaining for domestic and overseas spot premiums. It is expected that spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract will fluctuate between a premium of 200 yuan/mt and 300 yuan/mt.

According to preliminary statistics from the central bank, the cumulative increase in social financing scale in Q1 2025 reached 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.7 trillion yuan, up 586.2 billion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, decreased by 96.7 billion yuan, down 249 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans increased by 5.5 billion yuan, up 105 billion yuan YoY; trust loans increased by 53.1 billion yuan, down 145.2 billion yuan YoY; unaccepted bank bills increased by 530 billion yuan, down 20.2 billion yuan YoY; net financing of corporate bonds was 525.1 billion yuan, down 472.9 billion yuan YoY; net financing of government bonds was 3.87 trillion yuan, up 2.52 trillion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises was 96.2 billion yuan, up 19.9 billion yuan YoY. RMB loans increased by 978 billion yuan in Q1. By sector, household loans increased by 104 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 160.3 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 883.2 billion yuan; loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 866 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 351 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 558 billion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 544.2 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 86.6 billion yuan. Central bank data shows that at the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 3,260.6 trillion yuan, up 7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 1,134.9 trillion yuan, up 1.6% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 130.7 trillion yuan, up 11.5% YoY. Net cash injection in Q1 was 249.8 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for March 2025 I. Broad Money Growth of 7% At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 3,260.6 trillion yuan, up 7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 1,134.9 trillion yuan, up 1.6% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 130.7 trillion yuan, up 11.5% YoY. Net cash injection in Q1 was 249.8 billion yuan. II. RMB Loans Increased by 978 Billion Yuan in Q1 At the end of March, the balance of loans in domestic and foreign currencies was 2,692.6 trillion yuan, up 6.9% YoY. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 2,654.1 trillion yuan, up 7.4% YoY. RMB loans increased by 978 billion yuan in Q1. By sector, household loans increased by 104 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 160.3 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 883.2 billion yuan; loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 866 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 351 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 558 billion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 544.2 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 86.6 billion yuan. At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency loans was 535.7 billion US dollars, down 20.1% YoY. Foreign currency loans decreased by 6.4 billion US dollars in Q1. III. RMB Deposits Increased by 1.299 Trillion Yuan in Q1 At the end of March, the balance of deposits in domestic and foreign currencies was 3,221.1 trillion yuan, up 6.9% YoY. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 3,152.2 trillion yuan, up 6.7% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 1.299 trillion yuan in Q1. Among them, household deposits increased by 922 billion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 174 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 819 billion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by 309 billion yuan. At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency deposits was 959.8 billion US dollars, up 15.3% YoY. Foreign currency deposits increased by 106.9 billion US dollars in Q1. IV. The Monthly Weighted Average Interest Rate of Interbank RMB Market Lending in March Was 1.85%, and the Monthly Weighted Average Interest Rate of Pledged Bond Repo Was 1.87% In Q1, the total turnover of the interbank RMB market in terms of lending, spot bonds, and repos was 4,313.9 trillion yuan, with a daily average turnover of 731 billion yuan, down 17.7% YoY. Among them, the daily average turnover of interbank lending decreased by 38.8% YoY, the daily average turnover of spot bonds decreased by 4.5% YoY, and the daily average turnover of pledged repos decreased by 19.6% YoY. In March, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 1.85%, 0.1 and 0.03 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repos was 1.87%, 0.13 and 0.04 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. V. National Foreign Exchange Reserve Balance of 3.24 Trillion US Dollars At the end of March, the national foreign exchange reserve balance was 3.24 trillion US dollars. At the end of March, the RMB exchange rate was 7.1782 yuan per US dollar. VI. Cross-border RMB Settlement Amount Under the Current Account in Q1 Was 396 Billion Yuan, and Cross-border RMB Settlement Amount Under Direct Investment Was 209 Billion Yuan In Q1, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 396 billion yuan, of which goods trade, service trade, and other current accounts were 312 billion yuan and 84 billion yuan, respectively; the cross-border RMB settlement amount under direct investment was 209 billion yuan, of which outward direct investment and foreign direct investment were 76 billion yuan and 133 billion yuan, respectively. Social Financing Scale Increment Statistics Report for Q1 2025 Preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in Q1 2025 was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.7 trillion yuan, up 586.2 billion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, decreased by 96.7 billion yuan, down 249 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans increased by 5.5 billion yuan, up 105 billion yuan YoY; trust loans increased by 53.1 billion yuan, down 145.2 billion yuan YoY; unaccepted bank bills increased by 530 billion yuan, down 20.2 billion yuan YoY; net financing of corporate bonds was 525.1 billion yuan, down 472.9 billion yuan YoY; net financing of government bonds was 3.87 trillion yuan, up 2.52 trillion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises was 96.2 billion yuan, up 19.9 billion yuan YoY. Social Financing Scale Stock Statistics Report for March 2025 Preliminary statistics show that the social financing scale stock at the end of March 2025 was 4,229.6 trillion yuan, up 8.4% YoY. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 2,621.8 trillion yuan, up 7.2% YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, was 119 billion yuan, down 34.5% YoY; the balance of entrusted loans was 1.124 trillion yuan, up 0.6% YoY; the balance of trust loans was 435 billion yuan, up 6.2% YoY; the balance of unaccepted bank bills was 267 billion yuan, down 12.1% YoY; the balance of corporate bonds was 3.259 trillion yuan, up 2.4% YoY; the balance of government bonds was 8.496 trillion yuan, up 19.4% YoY; the balance of domestic equity of non-financial enterprises was 1.182 trillion yuan, up 2.7% YoY. From a structural perspective, at the end of March, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy accounted for 62% of the social financing scale stock in the same period, down 0.7 percentage points YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, accounted for 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the balance of entrusted loans accounted for 2.7%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the balance of trust loans accounted for 1%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY; the balance of unaccepted bank bills accounted for 0.6%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the balance of corporate bonds accounted for 7.7%, down 0.5 percentage points YoY; the balance of government bonds accounted for 20.1%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY; the balance of domestic equity of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.8%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY. Recommended Reading: 》Central Bank: New Social Financing in January Reached 706 Billion Yuan, Credit Issuance "Fully Fired," M2 Up 7% YoY 》Central Bank: Cumulative Social Financing Increment in 2024 Was 3.226 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 7.3% YoY in December 》Central Bank's Heavyweight Statement! Regarding Macroeconomic Policies, Supporting the Capital Market... 》Central Bank: New Social Financing in the First 11 Months Reached 2.94 Trillion Yuan, New Loans Reached 1.71 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 7.1% YoY in November 》Central Bank: New Social Financing in the First 10 Months Reached 2.706 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 7.5% YoY in October 》Supporting Capital Market Tools, M1 and M2 Growth Rates Stabilized and Rebounded, Recent Macro Control Thinking Has Been Adaptively Transformed 》September Financial Data Released: Factors Such as Increased Securities Customer Margin Led to M2 Growth Rate Rebound, Social Financing Growth Rate Generally Stable 》Central Bank: New Social Financing in the First 8 Months Reached 2.19 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 6.3% YoY in August 》Central Bank: Maintaining Price Stability and Promoting Mild Price Rebound as Important Considerations for Monetary Policy 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in the First 7 Months Reached 1.887 Trillion Yuan, RMB Loans Increased by 1.353 Trillion Yuan 》August Financial Data Released, Is Financial Data Still "Squeezing Water"? Expert Interpretation is Here! 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in the First Half of the Year Reached 1.81 Trillion Yuan, RMB Loans Increased by 1.327 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 6.2% YoY in June 》June Financial Data Released, How to View the Continued Slowdown in Some Indicators? Authoritative Experts Talk About the "Side Effects" of Financial Total "Scale Complex" 》Central Bank: Cumulative Social Financing Increment in the First 5 Months Reached 1.48 Trillion Yuan, RMB Loans Increased by 1.114 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 7% YoY in May 》Social Financing Structure Optimized, M1 Growth Rate May Be Underestimated, Why is May Financial Data Worth Paying Attention to? 》Central Bank: Cumulative Social Financing Increment in the First Four Months Reached 1.273 Trillion Yuan, RMB Loans Increased by 1.019 Trillion Yuan, M2 Up 7.2% YoY in April 》New Social Financing in Q1 Reached 1.293 Trillion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 946 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 8.3% YoY in March 》Social Financing Growth Steady, Financing Costs Steady with a Downward Trend, After Regulating Capital Idling and Manual Interest Supplementation, What Impact Does It Have on April Financial Data? 》Latest Financial Data Released, M2 and Social Financing Stock at the End of February Increased by 8.7% and 9.0% YoY, Respectively, See How Authoritative Experts Interpret It! 》Social Financing and New RMB Loans in the First Two Months Reached the Second Highest Level in History for the Same Period, M2 Up 8.7% YoY in February 》New Social Financing in January 2024 Reached 650 Billion Yuan, New Loans Reached 492 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 8.7% YoY 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in December Reached 194 Billion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 117 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 9.7% YoY 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in November Reached 245 Billion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 109 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 10% YoY 》November Financial Data Released: Social Financing Scale Continued to Increase YoY, Credit Support for the Real Economy Remained Solid 》Will Trillion Yuan National Debt "Support" October Monetary and Credit Data? Market Expects Overall Social Financing Strong, Credit Weak, RRR Cut Expectations Still Fermenting 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in October Reached 185 Billion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 738.4 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 10.3% YoY 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in September Reached 412 Billion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 231 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 10.3% YoY 》Central Bank's Heavyweight Statement! Talking About China-US Interest Rate Differential, September Financial Data, Mortgage Rate on Existing Home Loans... 》General Administration of Customs: China's Import and Export in the First Three Quarters Were Positive and Improved, September Hit the Highest Monthly Level of the Year 》PPI and CPI Data Improved for Three Consecutive Months, Experts: Price Improvement Further Confirmed, Expected PPI YoY Improvement Trend to Continue 》National Bureau of Statistics Interpretation: September CPI Operated Steadily, PPI YoY Decline Narrowed for Three Consecutive Months, Both Increased MoM 》September Mobile Phone Export Value Doubled MoM, Auto Export YoY Growth Rate Continued to Lead 》Central Bank: Social Financing Increment in August Reached 312 Billion Yuan, New RMB Loans Reached 136 Billion Yuan, M2 Up 10.6% YoY 》Central Bank: Act When Necessary, Resolutely Prevent Exchange Rate Overshooting Risks!The US dollar plunged against the offshore yuan. The central bank: August's social financing scale was 528.2 billion yuan, with new RMB loans of 345.9 billion yuan, and M2 up 10.7% YoY. The central bank: June's social financing and new RMB loans significantly exceeded expectations, with M2 up 11.3% YoY. The central bank: May's social financing increment was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month. The central bank: May's RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, with the previous value at 718.8 billion yuan. The central bank: May's RMB deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, 1.58 trillion yuan less YoY. The central bank: April's social financing increment was 1.22 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 718.8 billion yuan, and M2 up 12.4% YoY. The central bank: Q1 RMB deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, and loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan. [Breaking] February's M2 growth rate hit a seven-year high, with new RMB loans and social financing both reaching record highs for the same period! Exceeding expectations! January's new RMB loans hit a record high! M2 up 12.6% YoY, with new social financing of 5.98 trillion yuan.

Overnight Stock Market The three major US stock indices closed sharply higher, with the Nasdaq up 12.16%, marking its largest single-day percentage gain since January 3, 2001, and the second-largest record gain; the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since October 2008; the Dow Jones increased by 7.87%. During the US stock market session, US President Trump stated that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions. Major tech stocks surged significantly, with Tesla up over 22%, Nvidia up over 18%, and Apple up over 15%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 19%, setting a record for its single-day gain. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 4.53%. The FTSE China A50 futures index rose 1.16% in the night session. The offshore yuan against the US dollar regained the 7.35 level overnight. Commodity Market International oil prices rose. The price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $2.77, closing at $62.35 per barrel, a rise of 4.65%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery on the London ICE Futures Europe exchange increased by $2.66, closing at $65.48 per barrel, a rise of 4.23%. Market News [EU Approves First Round of Tariff Countermeasures Against the US, Imposing Up to 25% Tariffs on a Range of US Products] EU member states voted on the 9th to approve the first round of tariff countermeasures against the US, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a range of US products. This round of countermeasures primarily targets US steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU's countermeasures will be implemented in phases, with the first round taking effect on April 15. It is understood that the first round of countermeasures involves goods worth approximately 21 billion euros. [Trump Says He Will Not Allow Iran to Possess Nuclear Weapons] On April 9, US President Trump, while signing an executive order at the White House, told reporters that he hopes Iran can become strong but will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. According to reports, Trump stated that if necessary, the US will take military action, with Israel deeply involved and taking a leadership role, but "no one can lead the US." [Iranian President: Will Engage in Indirect Negotiations with the US with Dignity and Necessary Guarantees] Iranian President Pezeshkian, while attending the National Nuclear Technology Day event, stated that Iran will engage in indirect negotiations with the US with dignity and necessary guarantees. [Panama Says It Will Not Accept US Military or Defense Bases in Panama] Panama's Ministry of Security and the US Department of Defense signed a memorandum of understanding on April 9. During a joint press conference, Panama's Minister of Public Security, Avrego, emphasized that Panama's President Mulino has stated that Panama will not accept the establishment of military and defense bases in Panama, but Panama is willing to continue cooperation with the US in other security areas. [Fed Meeting Minutes: Inflation Slightly High, Uncertainty in Economic Outlook Increases] The Fed meeting minutes show that inflation remains slightly high. Participants noted that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased, and when considering the extent and timing of further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the Committee will carefully assess subsequent data, evolving prospects, and the balance of risks. The Committee is committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could hinder the Committee's goals, they will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate. The Committee's assessment will consider multiple factors, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments. [Houthi Forces Claim to Use Drones to Strike US Aircraft Carrier and Other US-Israeli Military Targets] Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated that the Houthi forces used drones to attack a military target in the Tel Aviv area of Israel. The Houthi forces also used multiple drones to attack several US warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman. [UK Announces: Carrier Strike Group to Depart for NATO Exercises] The UK Navy's flagship, the HMS Prince of Wales, will set sail from Portsmouth on April 22, 2025, leading a carrier strike group consisting of warships, supply ships, submarines, and aircraft to the Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific regions. The strike group will first assemble off the coast of Cornwall, UK, before heading to the Mediterranean to participate in NATO exercises. In the initial phase of the exercises, the strike group will be under NATO command. [German Union Party and SPD Announce Coalition Agreement] The German Union Party, composed of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) announced a coalition agreement at a press conference on the 9th. According to the agreement, the coalition aims to reduce the burden on German citizens and businesses through tax cuts; the coalition unanimously agreed to tighten refugee policies; the coalition agreed to establish a National Security Council in the Federal Chancellery to coordinate comprehensive security policy issues and conduct joint assessments of the situation. Additionally, the agreement stipulates the distribution of ministries among the coalition parties: the Christian Democratic Union will control six ministries, including the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, as well as the Chancellery; the SPD will control seven ministries, including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defense; the Christian Social Union will control three ministries, including the Ministry of the Interior. [Macron: France May Recognize Palestine in June] French President Macron stated on the 9th that France may recognize Palestine in June. Macron, in an interview broadcast on France 5 on the 9th, stated that France and Saudi Arabia plan to jointly host a conference on the Palestinian issue in New York, US, in June, and France may recognize Palestine at that time. He believes that recognizing Palestine at an appropriate time "is justified." Macron emphasized the importance of a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while calling on some countries that support Palestine to also recognize Israel. [Foxconn Plans to Launch Multiple EV Models in Japan] Foxconn Precision Industry Company stated that it will launch multiple car models in Japan by 2027 at the latest. Foxconn will collaborate with Japanese automakers to begin selling models developed based on Foxconn's compact car "Model B" in the Oceania region around 2026.

In recent times, with the continuous release of signals to stabilize the exchange rate and the strengthening of policies to maintain exchange rate stability, the yuan exchange rate has shown a significant stabilization after a slight decline at the beginning of the year. On the evening of January 20, the offshore yuan against the US dollar surged sharply, briefly reclaiming the 7.28 level and rising strongly by over 400 points. The onshore yuan against the US dollar also experienced a sharp surge, climbing nearly 500 points in a short period. Over the past week, the onshore yuan against the US dollar rebounded by nearly 700 points, while the offshore yuan rose by more than 800 points. Several industry insiders stated that after the previous release of depreciation pressure on the yuan, positive factors driving a new round of rebound for the yuan are now accumulating.

In recent times, with the continuous release of signals to stabilize the exchange rate and the strengthening of policies to stabilize the exchange rate, the yuan exchange rate has shown a significant stabilization after a slight decline at the beginning of the year. On the evening of January 20, the offshore yuan against the US dollar surged sharply, briefly reclaiming the 7.28 level and rising strongly by over 400 points. The onshore yuan against the US dollar also experienced a sharp surge, climbing nearly 500 points in a short period. Over the past week, the onshore yuan against the US dollar rebounded by nearly 700 points, while the offshore yuan rose by more than 800 points. Several industry insiders stated that after the previous release of depreciation pressure on the yuan exchange rate, positive factors driving a new round of yuan rebound are now accumulating.

LME copper opened at $9,178/mt, initially dipped to $9,149/mt, then surged to a high of $9,297/mt during the session, and fluctuated rangebound at the close, finally settling at $9,266/mt, up 0.92%.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, Trump officially took the oath of office as US President, mentioning topics such as tariffs, energy, and green policies, but made no mention of cryptocurrencies; US media reported that Trump would not impose new tariffs on his first day in office; Houthi forces stated they would continue to attack ships linked to Israel; Israeli Defense Forces chief: A "major operation" is expected soon in the West Bank; Putin: Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the US government on the Ukraine situation; President Xi Jinping: By 2025, more proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented to promote high-level technological self-reliance and strength; Vice Premier He Lifeng: Vigorously implement urban renewal and advance key urban renewal tasks in a strong, orderly, and effective manner; Offshore yuan surged 750 points against the US dollar during the day, reclaiming 7.27...

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, Trump officially took the oath of office as US President, addressing topics such as tariffs, energy, and green policies, without mentioning cryptocurrencies; US media: Trump will not impose new tariffs on his first day in office; Houthi forces stated they would continue attacking ships linked to Israel; Israeli Defense Forces chief: A "major operation" is expected soon in the West Bank; Putin: Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the US government on the Ukraine situation; President Xi Jinping: By 2025, a more proactive and effective macro policy should be implemented to promote high-level technological self-reliance and strength; Vice Premier Li Feng He: Vigorously implement urban renewal and advance key urban renewal tasks in a strong, orderly, and effective manner; Offshore yuan surged 750 points against the US dollar during the day, reclaiming 7.27...